BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,556
    edited September 2019
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Go on Jezza, grow a pair, get that VONC going tomorrow and kick off a general election...what's the worst that could happen?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-49551843/tony-blair-election-before-brexit-is-an-elephant-trap

    Cabinet meeting called today. Signs that Corbyn may not need to call a VONC and that Johnson will call a GE anyway.

    Funnily enough I've just been reading one of Cummings' blogs about the inaccuracy of political predictions and how the current environment values over confident, more aggressive promoters of Big Ideas over thoughtful analysis and an ability to change direction when new evidence is presented. Perhaps his boss should re-read it.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,556
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Go on Jezza, grow a pair, get that VONC going tomorrow and kick off a general election...what's the worst that could happen?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-49551843/tony-blair-election-before-brexit-is-an-elephant-trap

    Cabinet meeting called today. Signs that Corbyn may not need to call a VONC and that Johnson will call a GE anyway.

    Funnily enough I've just been reading one of Cummings' blogs about the inaccuracy of political predictions and how the current environment values over confident, more aggressive promoters of Big Ideas over thoughtful analysis and an ability to change direction when new evidence is presented. Perhaps his boss should re-read it.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    rjsterry wrote:
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    Go on Jezza, grow a pair, get that VONC going tomorrow and kick off a general election...what's the worst that could happen?
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-49551843/tony-blair-election-before-brexit-is-an-elephant-trap

    Cabinet meeting called today. Signs that Corbyn may not need to call a VONC and that Johnson will call a GE anyway.

    If Labour decide to let him. Corbyn probably will, as he loves campaigning more than anything. Bit hypocritical though, if they are saying parliament needs to be sitting up till the end of October to hold the executive to account.

    Still, at least Boris can be sure nothing can go wrong when calling an unnecessary general election.
  • cycleclinic
    cycleclinic Posts: 6,865
    edited September 2019
    Well taking controll of the order paper for one. That's not breaking the rules as such more a reinterpretation of them. There is precident though it happened in at the beginning of the year. But it amount to the same thing the norms of behaviour in parliament have been upended.

    Taking control of the order paper meant the gloves came off for the bojo government and they have gone one step further to try and stop the same trick from happening again. Until march the norms were just about holding.

    I'm not a brexiteer. I would love nothing more than Britain to stay I the eu but end cannot justify the means. That goes for both sides.

    I am not aware of the opposition having been able to take control of the order paper before. Some one correct me if I am wrong on that. But I think c follows b in this case. D may happen tomorrow. Of course a had to happen first. From the begining both sides have lied, exaggerated and over simplied the truth and there case to have the way. In poltics all of these things distort the truth so no one knows which way is up. The sensible voices on both sides have drowned by the shrill. It's now descended into blind panic on both sides.
    http://www.thecycleclinic.co.uk -wheel building and other stuff.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    If someone's about to burn down your house, would you be justified in stealing his matches?
  • cycleclinic
    cycleclinic Posts: 6,865
    edited September 2019
    You could use that analogy but also remember there are two sides here. The Brexit side think the remainers are trying to burn down there house...
    http://www.thecycleclinic.co.uk -wheel building and other stuff.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    If an election is called, the civil service goes into purdah and the tv broadcasters would have to go under *election* impartiality, just as the Brexit deadline was approaching.

    That's properly bonkers.

    How on earth would the civil service try and deal with whatever fires No-Deal was starting in purdah.

    I mean, christ.
    _
  • rolf_f
    rolf_f Posts: 16,015
    thecycleclinic wrote:
    You could use that analogy but also remember there are two sides here. The Brexit side think we're trying to burn down the new house that they think is better than the current one though they are unable to explain why and haven't yet employed an architect to design the new house because their priority is just to demolish the old one first and worry about such details and actually funding it after that at which point they'll point at the sad little pile of rubble in the middle of the plot and blame Remainers for it.

    I think both sides have lost moral authority otherwise May's deal would have passed and we would all be a little unhappy.

    Fixed that for you. Why do you think that passing May's deal would somehow give remain voting MPs moral authority? I think that that would only apply to pro Brexit MPs.
    Faster than a tent.......
  • cycleclinic
    cycleclinic Posts: 6,865
    That's why brexit was never going to end well. The least worst ending well maybe was May's deal after the vote to leave. We have I stead go e for the worst of worst endings either no deal with half the country crying nooook. Stay in by some miracle and half the country crying foul and well be back or stalemate with neither side backing down. Each one fractures the u.k more and makes in once pleasant land .ore ungovernable.
    http://www.thecycleclinic.co.uk -wheel building and other stuff.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,917
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    If an election is called, the civil service goes into purdah and the tv broadcasters would have to go under *election* impartiality, just as the Brexit deadline was approaching.

    That's properly bonkers.

    How on earth would the civil service try and deal with whatever fires No-Deal was starting in purdah.

    I mean, christ.

    Presumably there would only be an election if the Brexit deadline was extended i.e. parliament legislates for a Brexit extension, BoJo gets extension and calls an election. JC accepts as the extension has been implemented. As a result, quite a few of the current MPs will lose their jobs. He is hoping this will persuade them not to vote for the extension to begin with. It's politics.
  • rolf_f
    rolf_f Posts: 16,015
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    If an election is called, the civil service goes into purdah and the tv broadcasters would have to go under *election* impartiality, just as the Brexit deadline was approaching.

    That's properly bonkers.

    How on earth would the civil service try and deal with whatever fires No-Deal was starting in purdah.

    I mean, christ.

    Don't worry, apparently the election will be before the 31st. Probably the 30th then. Plenty of time to discuss it.
    Donald Tusk wrote:
    When the EU agreed to delay the UK's departure until the end of October, Donald Tusk, president of the European Council, said "please don't waste this time".

    That was a waste of words......
    Faster than a tent.......
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    If an election is called, the civil service goes into purdah and the tv broadcasters would have to go under *election* impartiality, just as the Brexit deadline was approaching.

    That's properly bonkers.

    How on earth would the civil service try and deal with whatever fires No-Deal was starting in purdah.

    I mean, christ.

    Presumably there would only be an election if the Brexit deadline was extended i.e. parliament legislates for a Brexit extension, BoJo gets extension and calls an election. JC accepts as the extension has been implemented. As a result, quite a few of the current MPs will lose their jobs. He is hoping this will persuade them not to vote for the extension to begin with. It's politics.

    You are assuming the EU agrees to an extension...
    _
  • cycleclinic
    cycleclinic Posts: 6,865
    edited September 2019
    Rolf F wrote:
    thecycleclinic wrote:
    You could use that analogy but also remember there are two sides here. The Brexit side think we're trying to burn down the new house that they think is better than the current one though they are unable to explain why and haven't yet employed an architect to design the new house because their priority is just to demolish the old one first and worry about such details and actually funding it after that at which point they'll point at the sad little pile of rubble in the middle of the plot and blame Remainers for it.

    I think both sides have lost moral authority otherwise May's deal would have passed and we would all be a little unhappy.

    Fixed that for you. Why do you think that passing May's deal would somehow give remain voting MPs moral authority? I think that that would only apply to pro Brexit MPs.

    You haven't fixed it. May deals may have been a resolution or a pause before further hostilities but the parliamentary norms were intact then. They are not now so unless both sides can row back all that left is increasing desperate attempts for one side to have the way.
    http://www.thecycleclinic.co.uk -wheel building and other stuff.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    thecycleclinic wrote:
    Well taking controll of the order paper for one. That's not breaking the rules as such more a reinterpretation of them. There is precident though it happened in at the beginning of the year. But it amount to the same thing the norms of behaviour in parliament have been upended.

    Taking control of the order paper meant the gloves came off for the bojo government and they have gone one step further to try and stop the same trick from happening again. Until march the norms were just about holding.

    I'm not a brexiteer. I would love nothing more than Britain to stay I the eu but end cannot justify the means. That goes for both sides.

    I am not aware of the opposition having been able to take control of the order paper before. Some one correct me if I am wrong on that. But I think c follows b in this case. D may happen tomorrow. Of course a had to happen first. From the begining both sides have lied, exaggerated and over simplied the truth and there case to have the way. In poltics all of these things distort the truth so no one knows which way is up. The sensible voices on both sides have drowned by the shrill. It's now descended into blind panic on both sides.


    This is just repeating the narrative that one side is a bad as the other without really supporting how.
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • cycleclinic
    cycleclinic Posts: 6,865
    edited September 2019
    I have tried to explain how msy be not very well. Upending the norms of parliament which letwin did in march is how and why we have the prorouge order.
    http://www.thecycleclinic.co.uk -wheel building and other stuff.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    For those who are saying that the current gov't's behaviour is not unusual and you wonder what all the fuss is about, here's the FT's columnist David Allen Green (who spends a lot of time on twitter) on why it is a big deal

    https://www.ft.com/content/a2798272-cd6 ... 4456540ea6
    _
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,917
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    If an election is called, the civil service goes into purdah and the tv broadcasters would have to go under *election* impartiality, just as the Brexit deadline was approaching.

    That's properly bonkers.

    How on earth would the civil service try and deal with whatever fires No-Deal was starting in purdah.

    I mean, christ.

    Presumably there would only be an election if the Brexit deadline was extended i.e. parliament legislates for a Brexit extension, BoJo gets extension and calls an election. JC accepts as the extension has been implemented. As a result, quite a few of the current MPs will lose their jobs. He is hoping this will persuade them not to vote for the extension to begin with. It's politics.

    You are assuming the EU agrees to an extension...

    Not at all. If the EU doesn't agree, then no election will be called.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    If an election is called, the civil service goes into purdah and the tv broadcasters would have to go under *election* impartiality, just as the Brexit deadline was approaching.

    That's properly bonkers.

    How on earth would the civil service try and deal with whatever fires No-Deal was starting in purdah.

    I mean, christ.

    Presumably there would only be an election if the Brexit deadline was extended i.e. parliament legislates for a Brexit extension, BoJo gets extension and calls an election. JC accepts as the extension has been implemented. As a result, quite a few of the current MPs will lose their jobs. He is hoping this will persuade them not to vote for the extension to begin with. It's politics.

    You are assuming the EU agrees to an extension...

    Not at all. If the EU doesn't agree, then no election will be called.

    Eh? Maybe you don't get the sub-reference; the rumours are they're going to try and call an election later today...!
    _
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,917
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    If an election is called, the civil service goes into purdah and the tv broadcasters would have to go under *election* impartiality, just as the Brexit deadline was approaching.

    That's properly bonkers.

    How on earth would the civil service try and deal with whatever fires No-Deal was starting in purdah.

    I mean, christ.

    Presumably there would only be an election if the Brexit deadline was extended i.e. parliament legislates for a Brexit extension, BoJo gets extension and calls an election. JC accepts as the extension has been implemented. As a result, quite a few of the current MPs will lose their jobs. He is hoping this will persuade them not to vote for the extension to begin with. It's politics.

    You are assuming the EU agrees to an extension...

    Not at all. If the EU doesn't agree, then no election will be called.

    Eh? Maybe you don't get the sub-reference; the rumours are they're going to try and call an election later today...!

    See bolded part. There won't be an election without an extension.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    TheBigBean wrote:
    See bolded part. There won't be an election without an extension.

    Is that based on any info, or just a common sense reading of what Corbyn might do?

    I understood similar to Rick, that the idea was to treat any attempt to tie their hands as a confidence vote, and go for an election on the 17th October, or even 7th November if they thought they could get away with that. It would be reckless.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,917
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    See bolded part. There won't be an election without an extension.

    Is that based on any info, or just a common sense reading of what Corbyn might do?

    I understood similar to Rick, that the idea was to treat any attempt to tie their hands as a confidence vote, and go for an election on the 17th October, or even 7th November if they thought they could get away with that. It would be reckless.

    Corbyn said it a few days ago. It's common sense too.

    Also, to add, he can't have a confidence vote. Clegg cursing parliament from the grave.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    TheBigBean wrote:
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    See bolded part. There won't be an election without an extension.

    Is that based on any info, or just a common sense reading of what Corbyn might do?

    Corbyn said it a few days ago. It's common sense too.

    Fair enough. If Corbyn can resist the catnip.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,556
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    TheBigBean wrote:
    See bolded part. There won't be an election without an extension.

    Is that based on any info, or just a common sense reading of what Corbyn might do?

    Corbyn said it a few days ago. It's common sense too.

    Fair enough. If Corbyn can resist the catnip.

    He's already said that he's not in favour of a GE if it means a no deal exit.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rdt
    rdt Posts: 869
    Ivan Rogers on the (grim) big picture:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/i ... al-brexit/
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,556
    rdt wrote:
    Ivan Rogers on the (grim) big picture:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/i ... al-brexit/

    Very good. Well worth a read.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    rjsterry wrote:
    rdt wrote:
    Ivan Rogers on the (grim) big picture:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/i ... al-brexit/

    Very good. Well worth a read.

    Agreed.

    I think that the only difference if we get a deal before end of October is the same happens but at end of 2020, possibly with a bit more preparation. We're never going to be rule takers long term.
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Sam Coates Sky
    @SamCoatesSky
    · 22m
    NEW

    Cabinet ministers to be told draft legal text on Northern Ireland plan has been drawn up and ready to be introduced

    BUT

    A source says draft legal text is just the existing protocol with the relevant articles on the backstop crossed out - not exactly a worked up plan

    Peter Foster
    @pmdfoster
    · 17m
    I just asked senior source on this who is across detail. Response?

    Apparently there is, technically a 'legal text', but it's just the old backstop "with all the important bits crossed out"...it "took about half an hour".




    The absolute state of the UK Government
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    https://www.lbc.co.uk/radio/special-sho ... al-brexit/

    Dr who wrote part of yellow-hammer discusses the problems with higher mortality rates after no-deal brexit with Rees-Mogg.
    _
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    Just a thought

    It would take an extraordinary level of gullibility to believe that Farage and The Brexit Party will leave the stage even if we leave the EU with no deal on 31st Oct.

    There's always a betrayal narrative
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • robert88
    robert88 Posts: 2,696
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    rdt wrote:
    Ivan Rogers on the (grim) big picture:

    https://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2019/09/i ... al-brexit/

    Very good. Well worth a read.

    Agreed.

    I think that the only difference if we get a deal before end of October is the same happens but at end of 2020, possibly with a bit more preparation. We're never going to be rule takers long term.

    That's good. How does it work?

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