BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

robert88

thistle (MBNW) wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Some interest stuff from Nick Gutteridge on ongoing technical discussions on the backstop

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/sta ... 8235638784

He does make a good point on his sign off

12/ For now we're in a political environment where complex, technical ideas like this don't stand much of a chance. The EU side acknowledges that. Its hope is that the opening whirlwind of the Johnson premiership will subside and then the two sides can sit down and talk detail.

It's not like they've had any time so far to come up with and test any alternative to the backstop, which would make the backstop irrelevant.

What alternative should they test?

pblakeney

Robert88 wrote:

thistle (MBNW) wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Some interest stuff from Nick Gutteridge on ongoing technical discussions on the backstop

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/sta ... 8235638784

He does make a good point on his sign off

12/ For now we're in a political environment where complex, technical ideas like this don't stand much of a chance. The EU side acknowledges that. Its hope is that the opening whirlwind of the Johnson premiership will subside and then the two sides can sit down and talk detail.

It's not like they've had any time so far to come up with and test any alternative to the backstop, which would make the backstop irrelevant.

What alternative should they test?

A simple test would be to ask the unicorn if they have any cake left.
Cake. Mmmmmmmmmmmm.

morstar

Current take.

BJ's preferred outcome is that Eu move and he hails himself the hero in true Trumpesque fashion but, as we know, this is the least likely outcome.

In the absence of this, he hopes that parliament find a way to block no deal that he can continue to portray himself as the victim of an 'anti democratic plot' whist not being held accountable for no deal.

Why else, is he now saying that a deal is unlikely when he has actually received openness to new proposals this week? He is basically telling parliament as early as possible that we are now heading for no deal (and it's not his fault) so they have as much opportunity to pursue avenues to block it (again, not his fault).

Both options enhance his probability of retaining / regaining role as prime minister. Whilst no deal is full of risk (Job, failure & notoriety).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/49465298

The laughable thing is, he keeps coming out with all the winner rhetoric but his behaviour is that of a loser. He lays the groundwork for excuses at every turn which is the polar opposite of winning behaviour.

Jez mon

morstar wrote:

Current take.

BJ's preferred outcome is that Eu move and he hails himself the hero in true Trumpesque fashion but, as we know, this is the least likely outcome.

In the absence of this, he hopes that parliament find a way to block no deal that he can continue to portray himself as the victim of an 'anti democratic plot' whist not being held accountable for no deal.

Why else, is he now saying that a deal is unlikely when he has actually received openness to new proposals this week? He is basically telling parliament as early as possible that we are now heading for no deal (and it's not his fault) so they have as much opportunity to pursue avenues to block it (again, not his fault).

Both options enhance his probability of retaining / regaining role as prime minister. Whilst no deal is full of risk (Job, failure & notoriety).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/49465298

The laughable thing is, he keeps coming out with all the winner rhetoric but his behaviour is that of a loser. He lays the groundwork for excuses at every turn which is the polar opposite of winning behaviour.

I think it's too early to tell a great deal about Johnsons preferences.

The Brexit hardliners have been sufficiently worked up that anything aside from a no deal leaves the door open for Farage. Whether he can actually make an impact in a general election must surely play on the minds of any strategists in the Tory party. There's a first time for everything after all.

A hard brexit kills off Farage once and for all (probably)

orraloon

The rats seem to be ratting on each other.

https://mobile.twitter.com/philiphammon ... 16480?s=21

morstar

Jez mon wrote:

morstar wrote:

Current take.

BJ's preferred outcome is that Eu move and he hails himself the hero in true Trumpesque fashion but, as we know, this is the least likely outcome.

In the absence of this, he hopes that parliament find a way to block no deal that he can continue to portray himself as the victim of an 'anti democratic plot' whist not being held accountable for no deal.

Why else, is he now saying that a deal is unlikely when he has actually received openness to new proposals this week? He is basically telling parliament as early as possible that we are now heading for no deal (and it's not his fault) so they have as much opportunity to pursue avenues to block it (again, not his fault).

Both options enhance his probability of retaining / regaining role as prime minister. Whilst no deal is full of risk (Job, failure & notoriety).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/49465298

The laughable thing is, he keeps coming out with all the winner rhetoric but his behaviour is that of a loser. He lays the groundwork for excuses at every turn which is the polar opposite of winning behaviour.

I think it's too early to tell a great deal about Johnsons preferences.

The Brexit hardliners have been sufficiently worked up that anything aside from a no deal leaves the door open for Farage. Whether he can actually make an impact in a general election must surely play on the minds of any strategists in the Tory
party. There's a first time for everything after all.
A hard brexit kills off Farage once and for all (probably)

Clearly conjecture on my part but, every comment from Boris is laying the foundations for blame so he is clearly in the process of 'manoeuvring' rather than 'happy' with no deal.
Whether I'm right or wrong, he feels the need to distance himself from fallout despite all his upbeat talk. The tories will take a hit at the next election regardless of what outcome is reached as will labour. But realistically, BJ or JC will be the next PM when an election does happen and BJ wants that to be him and I believe that is his primary agenda. He is smart enough to know a lot of people will be annoyed whatever happens so it is all about what is the spin that retains his position as PM.

shirley_basso

I'm with morstar. A leaf out of Trump's playbook.

rick_chasey

We done this yet?

https://www.ft.com/content/ffdb6e8c-c5c ... 6ca66511c9

Sun boycott reduced Euroscepticism on Merseyside, study shows

sungod

as one would expect, a steady stream of lies and disinformation has an effect in society

murdoch hates the eu because he doesn't like regulation of his ability to screw consumers nor paying tax on profits

the daily mail was dacre's platform for spreading his anti-eu lies and propaganda, whilst hoovering up hundreds of thousands of pounds in eu subsidies

they don't like the bbc either, it competes against their paid content services and websites (source of advertising revenue)

then there's the barclay brothers, and desmond, lovely people

all use their news organizations to push their right-wing message

of course there're left-wing leaning mainstream papers but in comparison they're noise level in their impact

like many in parliament, most of the uk press is corrupted by the power and money these and others apply to get their way, it degrades society and there's no sign of things improving

Stevo_666

Looks like Corbyn's insistence on being caretaker PM in any emergency government is scuppering the no confidence vote:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49468218

robert88

Stevo 666 wrote:

Looks like Corbyn's insistence on being caretaker PM in any emergency government is scuppering the no confidence vote:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49468218

Brexit.

What could possibly go wrong?

Stevo_666

Robert88 wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Looks like Corbyn's insistence on being caretaker PM in any emergency government is scuppering the no confidence vote:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49468218

Brexit.

What could possibly go wrong?

Fair question, but how is that relevant to the point above?

robert88

Stevo 666 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Looks like Corbyn's insistence on being caretaker PM in any emergency government is scuppering the no confidence vote:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49468218

Brexit.

What could possibly go wrong?

Fair question, but how is that relevant to the point above?

Thought you'd ask me that. If the Tories hadn't sought to shaft the opposition by fair means or foul (ok, forget the fair means, I certainly have) it's not impossible that a cross-party consensus could have emerged. Unfortunately both parties are led by crackpots and by all accounts, thanks to members and supporters of the Tory party:

Stevo 666 wrote:

What a fantastic idea

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11680016/Why-Tories-should-join-Labour-and-back-Jeremy-Corbyn.html

If this goes viral, for the measly sum of £3 each we can put Jeremy Corbyn in charge of the Labour party, consigning Labour to electoral oblivion for quite some time. Quite a few people need to register to make it work, as it says in the link:
"Could this actually work? That depends on how many Tories sign up. The size of the Labour leadership electorate is projected to be 240,000 or thereabouts, so quite large. Second preferences are redistributed and, assuming Liz Kendal’s eliminated first, followed by Yvette Cooper, I can’t see him getting many of those. To win, therefore, Corbyn would need to get close to 50 per cent of first preferences – quite a tall order, even in a party as bats**t crazy as Labour."

I'm now a registered supporter of the Labour party Come on comrades, your country needs you - get registered and tell your friends...

cycleclinic

Mr goo has only just got fed up. I got there a year ago or more and more recently have spotted paying any attention. My respect for the party I am a member is shot. I am resigned to one day leaving the uk now either that or stay and just stop voting and just accept folk like me have no say and never will. This comes from someone who has voted in every election since I was 18 and has always advocating voting. When the politically engaged are turned off poltics we have a problem

morstar

thecycleclinic wrote:

Mr goo has only just got fed up. I got there a year ago or more and more recently have spotted paying any attention. My respect for the party I am a member is shot. I am resigned to one day leaving the uk now either that or stay and just stop voting and just accept folk like me have no say and never will. This comes from someone who has voted in every election since I was 18 and has always advocating voting. When the politically engaged are turned off poltics we have a problem

Agreed, was discussing with my daughter the other day how complete disregard for the truth and pragmatism has become the norm.
I hoped the prosecution against BJ had succeeded as I think this is a real issue that has to be addressed.
We have world leaders in GB, USA, Brazil, & Russia (not a complete list) pursuing the politics of power at any cost without redress. Yes, this behaviour is well documented throughout history but in our globalised world, the impact of these morons is globalised.

coopster_the_1st

thecycleclinic wrote:

Mr goo has only just got fed up. I got there a year ago or more and more recently have spotted paying any attention. My respect for the party I am a member is shot. I am resigned to one day leaving the uk now either that or stay and just stop voting and just accept folk like me have no say and never will. This comes from someone who has voted in every election since I was 18 and has always advocating voting. When the politically engaged are turned off poltics we have a problem

As you don't respect democracy or democratic outcomes, you no longer voting or leaving the country will only be an improvement for the UK as this country needs less whinging losers like you.

orraloon

Oh hello, it's agitprop botster again. Just what the dUK needs, divisive a-holes.

cycleclinic

I do respect democratic outcomes. I did not say I do not. My problem is every group is after there ideal form of brexit or non brexit. Its political extremism and I cannot vote for extremists of any colour. Therefore as I have no one to vote for I have two choices. that not whinging either that accepting reality something many seem unable to do. Personally I hoped the deal would have gone through. Its a shit deal but it a compromise that allows brexit to happen and most people to move on.

Your reply is quite an extreme one cooper the 1st and highlights the problem we have. When citizens of the UK no longer feel at home in the UK , the UK has a problem.

I am quite offended.

Stevo_666

Robert88 wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Robert88 wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Looks like Corbyn's insistence on being caretaker PM in any emergency government is scuppering the no confidence vote:
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-49468218

Brexit.

What could possibly go wrong?

Fair question, but how is that relevant to the point above?

Thought you'd ask me that. If the Tories hadn't sought to shaft the opposition by fair means or foul (ok, forget the fair means, I certainly have) it's not impossible that a cross-party consensus could have emerged. Unfortunately both parties are led by crackpots and by all accounts, thanks to members and supporters of the Tory party:

Good try but that is a different point.

I don't see what 'questions' like the one you asked above add to the debate. Also they have been posed several times before on the thread.

cycleclinic

Proroguation of parliament is back as a topic. Was it really sensible for mps go on such a long summer break. All that's happened over summer is people have got worked up over what might be because nowt has happened. The nowt is a problem and what depresses me. Suspending parliament therefore will achieve little that isn't likely to happen anyway. All prorguation will confirm is the lack of say any of actually have in way government is done the fact it's even being looked at by government is quite damaging and deligitimises them.

rolf_f

Latest quotes from the Prime Liar.

“We asked the people to vote on whether they wanted to stay in or leave the EU; they voted to leave by a big majority.”

I guess BoJo is also enjoying his big parliamentary majority and therefore we won't have to endure yet another general election any time soon.

“I think people have just about had enough of this conversation, and I think they’re yearning for the moment when Brexit comes off the front pages of the national papers, and that will only happen when we come out of the EU on 31 October, and that is what I am calling on all my fellow MPs to do.”

What sort of idiot genuinely thinks that, come us leaving on 31st October, Brexit will no longer be front page news. It will be front page news for decades. If you are bored with Brexit, then push to have it cancelled; that's the only way we will get to forget about it in our lifetimes.

Johnson said he was “marginally more optimistic” about the prospects for a deal after the weekend in the French seaside resort, but added: “Remember any statistical estimates I give, whether that’s expressed in odds of a million to one, or whatever, they all depend exclusively on the willingness of our friends and partners to compromise on that crucial point, and get rid of the backstop.”

Millon to one? That was a statistical estimate was it? I'd like to see the numbers behind that. Or was he just making crap up again. Everything that man says is verbal garbage.

“My job is to make our case – and you know what our case is, that the backstop is anti-democratic: it keeps us locked in the EU’s customs arrangements; it keeps us locked in the EU’s legal order, without the opportunity to influence those things. It’s got to come out. It’s got to change. I’ve made that point very, very clearly to our friends and I think that point has landed – so let’s now see where we get.”

Yes dear. They got that you think that months ago. It's a very simple point no matter how cretinous. The problem is not the point but that you haven't come up with a solution. Which is what your job is to do......

Moronic Clown.

ballysmate

Rolf F wrote:

Latest quotes from the Prime Liar.

“We asked the people to vote on whether they wanted to stay in or leave the EU; they voted to leave by a big majority.”

I guess BoJo is also enjoying his big parliamentary majority and therefore we won't have to endure yet another general election any time soon.
Pertinent words being highlighted. It could be stated that only a minority wanted to remain.

“I think people have just about had enough of this conversation, and I think they’re yearning for the moment when Brexit comes off the front pages of the national papers, and that will only happen when we come out of the EU on 31 October, and that is what I am calling on all my fellow MPs to do.”

What sort of idiot genuinely thinks that, come us leaving on 31st October, Brexit will no longer be front page news. It will be front page news for decades. If you are bored with Brexit, then push to have it cancelled; that's the only way we will get to forget about it in our lifetimes.
Well 2 people on this page, Goo and Cycleclinic have expressed that very view.

Johnson said he was “marginally more optimistic” about the prospects for a deal after the weekend in the French seaside resort, but added: “Remember any statistical estimates I give, whether that’s expressed in odds of a million to one, or whatever, they all depend exclusively on the willingness of our friends and partners to compromise on that crucial point, and get rid of the backstop.”

Millon to one? That was a statistical estimate was it? I'd like to see the numbers behind that. Or was he just making crap up again. Everything that man says is verbal garbage.

Pretty sure he was just saying that any estimate would be as you point out just made up and could not be accurately quantified.

“My job is to make our case – and you know what our case is, that the backstop is anti-democratic: it keeps us locked in the EU’s customs arrangements; it keeps us locked in the EU’s legal order, without the opportunity to influence those things. It’s got to come out. It’s got to change. I’ve made that point very, very clearly to our friends and I think that point has landed – so let’s now see where we get.”

Yes dear. They got that you think that months ago. It's a very simple point no matter how cretinous. The problem is not the point but that you haven't come up with a solution. Which is what your job is to do......
Well at least we agree that it is BJ's job to make our case. As any resulting failure to reach agreement would affect both sides, it is surely up to both sides to try to find a solution, no?

Moronic Clown.

rick_chasey

The problem with Coopster as the most vocal and prominent Brexiter on a thread is that he just confirms all my, probably wrong, prejudices about the main strand of Brexiters; that they are thick as sh!t, faintly various minority-phobics and are very quick to recycle already terrible insults.

I guess that's the point though; makes folk like me seem even more supercilious than we already are.

rolf_f

The pertinent word to highlight was "big". Your point just begs the question; why didn't he say "they voted to leave by a majority". He used an extra word to turn a truth into a lie (ignoring of course the fact that only a minority voted to leave as well as remain). That is the point.

Regarding the estimates - the point is that they are not made up statistical estimates. They are just invented random numbers designed to impress a very credulous audience.

And yes, up to both sides to find a solution. They already did find a solution which we agreed to and then disagreed with. There's clearly no point in Europe coming up with any ideas as, by definition, they wouldn't be accepted by the Brexiteers and therefore such ideas would actually be damaged if proposed by Europe. But then the Brexiteers have no willingness or ability to come up with any ideas anyway so what next?

tailwindhome

Jim Pickard
@PickardJE
· 13m
the opposition parties (and some pro-EU Tories) have concluded their meeting - they agreed a "joint legislative approach" to stop no-deal Brexit as plan A, with vote of no confidence only the last resort

ballysmate

TailWindHome wrote:

Jim Pickard
@PickardJE
· 13m
the opposition parties (and some pro-EU Tories) have concluded their meeting - they agreed a "joint legislative approach" to stop no-deal Brexit as plan A, with vote of no confidence only the last resort

The "House" voted overwhelmingly to trigger A50 in the full knowledge that the EU had not and would not open negotiations until they received the A50 letter from the UK. They also knew that they had in May the most Remain leaning option of PM from the candidates available after Cameron.
Parliament wanted and got a veto on any deal negotiated to prevent the executive from imposing their deal. They did this in the full knowledge that there was a 2 year deadline and without agreement we would be out with no deal.
The deal was put before Parliament and rejected, twice was it?
In true EU style, this deadline was fudged and they gave us time to reconsider and again the deal was rejected even though the EU were adamant it was the best available. May obviously had to go. Step forward BJ.
Now we have a more hardline Leave PM, who has said that he will leave with no deal and now pro EU MPs are wetting the bed at the prospect.
BJ has no stomach to bring back May's deal to Parliament, after all MPs kept rejecting it didn't they?

What the holy fcuk did they expect?
They voted to leave, they repeatedly voted down the only deal in town, and according to the EU the best we could get, knowing full well that it was the end of the reluctant Leaver, May, and that at the end of the extension we would be out with no deal.

TheBigBean

Ballysmate wrote:

What the holy fcuk did they expect?

That's easy. A general election, a referendum or revocation of A50 depending on the MP.

rick_chasey

It's an annoying time to point out there has been a vote since the ref (the '17 GE) and that vote produced a parliament that I think still broadly reflects public opinion on the matter, which is there is no majority for anything, so some kind of decent fudge is required.

I don't know why they do not go to the most popular failed options which is workable that they had during that multiple vote off thing and work out what they need to do with those to get a majority over the line.

That would be proper politics.

It would be so much more powerful to go to the EU and say "look, we're a majority minus 3 people for this solution. We think we can give here and only lose one more but if you concede on this issue we might gain five" etc.

That's the language EU folk understand; that's what they do for a living.

ballysmate

TheBigBean wrote:

Ballysmate wrote:

What the holy fcuk did they expect?

That's easy. A general election, a referendum or revocation of A50 depending on the MP.

What if, following an election,as Rick says we get a similar make up in the Commons as now. What if another referendum produces the same/ closer or even 52/48 split the other way? Where do we go then?

TheBigBean

Ballysmate wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

Ballysmate wrote:

What the holy fcuk did they expect?

That's easy. A general election, a referendum or revocation of A50 depending on the MP.

What if, following an election,as Rick says we get a similar make up in the Commons as now. What if another referendum produces the same/ closer or even 52/48 split the other way? Where do we go then?

I didn't say it was a sensible strategy. It's just what they were hoping for.