BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

rick_chasey

john80 wrote:

Can i come with you to savotage your next negotiation.

Feel free mate. I only broker negotiations for a living. Not reaching an agreement = no money for me. Come down any day you like.

surrey_commuter

john80 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

john80 wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Not surprised to see Johnson blaming others for the clusterf.

Johnson says MPs who claim they can prevent no deal are to blame for hardline EU response

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... top-brexit

In all fairness he is just pointing out the obvious. I am starting to question whether any of the remain MPs of which they are the majority have any self awareness and how their repeated actions may hamper the course of action they overwhelming voted for by triggering article 50.

No deal hurts the U.K. more than the EU so it is not the negotiating position you are assuming it is.

It shows a fundamental misunderstanding of what the EU priorities are.

Do I need to start talking about proportions again?

If the eu cannot agree an ongoing relationship with a currently compliant nation. Makes you wonder who they can agree a relationship with. Yet again you conveniently ignore the impact having the bulk of our politicians openly attempting to prevent brexit. Can i come with you to savotage your next negotiation.

You hit the nail on the head with your “currently compliant” comment as similar negotiations have always assumed convergence, in this case the UK is insisting that it will diverge.

It is well known what the EU will offer, the UK needs to figure out what it wants the future to look like and then make proposals and negotiate accordingly.

I don’t see how you continuing to blame the ERG for blocking Brexit achieves anything.

pblakeney

Rolf F wrote:

john80 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

john80 wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Not surprised to see Johnson blaming others for the clusterf.

Johnson says MPs who claim they can prevent no deal are to blame for hardline EU response

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... top-brexit

In all fairness he is just pointing out the obvious. I am starting to question whether any of the remain MPs of which they are the majority have any self awareness and how their repeated actions may hamper the course of action they overwhelming voted for by triggering article 50.

No deal hurts the U.K. more than the EU so it is not the negotiating position you are assuming it is.

It shows a fundamental misunderstanding of what the EU priorities are.

Do I need to start talking about proportions again?

If the eu cannot agree an ongoing relationship with a currently compliant nation. Makes you wonder who they can agree a relationship with. Yet again you conveniently ignore the impact having the bulk of our politicians openly attempting to prevent brexit. Can i come with you to savotage your next negotiation.

They did - don't you remember? The EU and TM spent two years negotiating it.

And who was it that scuppered the deal? Oopsie!
Tick tock...

rjsterry

It seems that May was right about no deal being better than a bad deal. Just not from our point of view. The EU seem to have decided that they prefer no deal to the non-proposals of Johnson and Co.

john80

Rick Chasey wrote:

john80 wrote:

Can i come with you to savotage your next negotiation.

Feel free mate. I only broker negotiations for a living. Not reaching an agreement = no money for me. Come down any day you like.

Reading your past posts would lead me to believe that you were willing to take a hit on the money for remain in this instance.

pblakeney

Without wishing to go off on a tangent in the Trump thread, how come no one has mentioned OCTA to date?

rick_chasey

john80 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

john80 wrote:

Can i come with you to savotage your next negotiation.

Feel free mate. I only broker negotiations for a living. Not reaching an agreement = no money for me. Come down any day you like.

Reading your past posts would lead me to believe that you were willing to take a hit on the money for remain in this instance.

I believe Brexit hurts my earnings and remaining doesn’t so I’m not sure I follow.

bobmcstuff

BBC News - Merkel: Backstop alternative 'possible within 30 days'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49427674

If it lifts the pound a bit for my holiday to Seattle and Portland on Sunday then I am all for it!

rjsterry

bobmcstuff wrote:

BBC News - Merkel: Backstop alternative 'possible within 30 days'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49427674

If it lifts the pound a bit for my holiday to Seattle and Portland on Sunday then I am all for it!

Johnson has publicly admitted that it is for the UK to propose solutions, which is a start.

tailwindhome

Superb twitter thread on borders.
Highly recommended

https://twitter.com/kevinhorourke/statu ... 2387041280

slowbike

rjsterry wrote:

bobmcstuff wrote:

BBC News - Merkel: Backstop alternative 'possible within 30 days'
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49427674

If it lifts the pound a bit for my holiday to Seattle and Portland on Sunday then I am all for it!

Johnson has publicly admitted that it is for the UK to propose solutions, which is a start.

What a FWit ... he's been part of this since the off - of course it's up to the UK to propose a solution - shouldn't he have already thought about that and gone in with a solution or two?!

rolf_f

TailWindHome wrote:

Superb twitter thread on borders.
Highly recommended

https://twitter.com/kevinhorourke/statu ... 2387041280

That is good - though somewhat ridiculous that this needs explaining. The concept that there is anyone out there who doesn't understand this depresses me. Particularly when many of those are in our Government.

TheBigBean

TailWindHome wrote:

Superb twitter thread on borders.
Highly recommended

https://twitter.com/kevinhorourke/statu ... 2387041280

I still maintain that a lot of the people talking about borders around the world need to try crossing some borders around the world, or even travelling on a few cargo ships to understand the extent of checks or lack of them.

Arguments based on tax are particularly pointless given that it hasn't been harmonised across the EU. Also pointless are arguments based on immigration given the CTA. The only argument that really has merit is regulatory divergence - are people really going to buy a smuggled chlorinated chicken from a man down the pub? Or is the expectation that widespread corruption will happen with KFC Ireland cooking its books to allow some chlorinated chicken? Alternatively, perhaps it is a fake phone battery that will be smuggled - why wouldn't you just buy that off one of the millions on ebay or Amazon?

Pross

Merkel made a pretty good move politically in not refusing to rule out looking at alternatives but putting the onus on Johnson to propose something. It takes away any reasonable suggestion that the EU are refusing to negotiate but that it needs the UK to come up with the suggestion as we've ruled out the previously agreed solution. I get similar situations in my line of work, submit several solutions to a problem that all get dismissed by the party responsible for approving them but they won't provide any idea of what it is that they actually want, just what they don't want and it gets infuriating.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Superb twitter thread on borders.
Highly recommended

https://twitter.com/kevinhorourke/statu ... 2387041280

I still maintain that a lot of the people talking about borders around the world need to try crossing some borders around the world, or even travelling on a few cargo ships to understand the extent of checks or lack of them.

Arguments based on tax are particularly pointless given that it hasn't been harmonised across the EU. Also pointless are arguments based on immigration given the CTA. The only argument that really has merit is regulatory divergence - are people really going to buy a smuggled chlorinated chicken from a man down the pub? Or is the expectation that widespread corruption will happen with KFC Ireland cooking its books to allow some chlorinated chicken? Alternatively, perhaps it is a fake phone battery that will be smuggled - why wouldn't you just buy that off one of the millions on ebay or Amazon?

You must have a stake in some smuggling business.

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Superb twitter thread on borders.
Highly recommended

https://twitter.com/kevinhorourke/statu ... 2387041280

I still maintain that a lot of the people talking about borders around the world need to try crossing some borders around the world, or even travelling on a few cargo ships to understand the extent of checks or lack of them.

Arguments based on tax are particularly pointless given that it hasn't been harmonised across the EU. Also pointless are arguments based on immigration given the CTA. The only argument that really has merit is regulatory divergence - are people really going to buy a smuggled chlorinated chicken from a man down the pub? Or is the expectation that widespread corruption will happen with KFC Ireland cooking its books to allow some chlorinated chicken? Alternatively, perhaps it is a fake phone battery that will be smuggled - why wouldn't you just buy that off one of the millions on ebay or Amazon?

Brexiteers are willing for our economy to bear an enormous cost to take back control of our borders, do you really think they picture that to be some sort of honesty box approach? With their love of all things American I imagine they aspire to the level of immigration checks at JFK and controls more akin to the Mexican border than Canadian

TheBigBean

Surrey Commuter wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Superb twitter thread on borders.
Highly recommended

https://twitter.com/kevinhorourke/statu ... 2387041280

I still maintain that a lot of the people talking about borders around the world need to try crossing some borders around the world, or even travelling on a few cargo ships to understand the extent of checks or lack of them.

Arguments based on tax are particularly pointless given that it hasn't been harmonised across the EU. Also pointless are arguments based on immigration given the CTA. The only argument that really has merit is regulatory divergence - are people really going to buy a smuggled chlorinated chicken from a man down the pub? Or is the expectation that widespread corruption will happen with KFC Ireland cooking its books to allow some chlorinated chicken? Alternatively, perhaps it is a fake phone battery that will be smuggled - why wouldn't you just buy that off one of the millions on ebay or Amazon?

Brexiteers are willing for our economy to bear an enormous cost to take back control of our borders, do you really think they picture that to be some sort of honesty box approach? With their love of all things American I imagine they aspire to the level of immigration checks at JFK and controls more akin to the Mexican border than Canadian

Perhaps it can be discussed when someone proposes abolishing the CTA, but until then perhaps the focus should be on goods that are non regulatory aligned, so when's the great Amazon/Ebay crack down going to start?

pblakeney

Surrey Commuter wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Superb twitter thread on borders.
Highly recommended

https://twitter.com/kevinhorourke/statu ... 2387041280

I still maintain that a lot of the people talking about borders around the world need to try crossing some borders around the world, or even travelling on a few cargo ships to understand the extent of checks or lack of them.

Arguments based on tax are particularly pointless given that it hasn't been harmonised across the EU. Also pointless are arguments based on immigration given the CTA. The only argument that really has merit is regulatory divergence - are people really going to buy a smuggled chlorinated chicken from a man down the pub? Or is the expectation that widespread corruption will happen with KFC Ireland cooking its books to allow some chlorinated chicken? Alternatively, perhaps it is a fake phone battery that will be smuggled - why wouldn't you just buy that off one of the millions on ebay or Amazon?

Brexiteers are willing for our economy to bear an enormous cost to take back control of our borders, do you really think they picture that to be some sort of honesty box approach? With their love of all things American I imagine they aspire to the level of immigration checks at JFK and controls more akin to the Mexican border than Canadian

"We want to take control of our borders, by not having any." :?

rjsterry

Surrey Commuter wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Superb twitter thread on borders.
Highly recommended

https://twitter.com/kevinhorourke/statu ... 2387041280

I still maintain that a lot of the people talking about borders around the world need to try crossing some borders around the world, or even travelling on a few cargo ships to understand the extent of checks or lack of them.

Arguments based on tax are particularly pointless given that it hasn't been harmonised across the EU. Also pointless are arguments based on immigration given the CTA. The only argument that really has merit is regulatory divergence - are people really going to buy a smuggled chlorinated chicken from a man down the pub? Or is the expectation that widespread corruption will happen with KFC Ireland cooking its books to allow some chlorinated chicken? Alternatively, perhaps it is a fake phone battery that will be smuggled - why wouldn't you just buy that off one of the millions on ebay or Amazon?

Brexiteers are willing for our economy to bear an enormous cost to take back control of our borders, do you really think they picture that to be some sort of honesty box approach? With their love of all things American I imagine they aspire to the level of immigration checks at JFK and controls more akin to the Mexican border than Canadian

They aren't a homogeneous group. There are plenty who don't give a stuff about immigration and just want regulatory relaxation; they have then used concerns about immigration to mobilise a voter base in support of their deregulatory aims.

rick_chasey

Rick Chasey wrote:

The integrity of the EU single market is a higher priority to the EU27 than the cost of Brexit to them; perhaps this is something some Brits overlook. They don’t care about the U.K. as much as you think they do.

So Macron, this morning.

“If there are things in the framework of what was negotiated by [EU negotiator] Michel Barnier that can be adapted and conform with the two objectives I mentioned — stability in Ireland and integrity of the single market — we should find it in the coming month,”

They are the priorities.

tailwindhome

I quite like the mischief in the Tom Harris suggestion.

If remainers want to stop an no deal brexit, take control of the order paper again, bring back the withdrawal agreement and vote for it.

rjsterry

TailWindHome wrote:

I quite like the mischief in the Tom Harris suggestion.

If remainers want to stop an no deal brexit, take control of the order paper again, bring back the withdrawal agreement and vote for it.

I think this is Stephen Kinnock's plan.

rjsterry

This is rather fascinating. From the Guardian's PoliticsLive blog.

David Davis may think that the government will be able to cope with a no-deal Brexit perfectly well (see 10.52am), but in the past Dominic Cummings, Boris Johnson’s de facto chief of staff, took a very different view. By chance I was clearing out some shelves in the office yesterday and discovered a report written by Cummings in June 2014, a good two years before the EU referendum. It presented the findings of focus group research exploring attitudes towards the EU, and it concluded with a paragraph about what actually leaving the EU would be like. Cummings wrote:

Leaving the EU would be a huge and complex affair that would require resources far beyond the reach of any political party or normal campaign, and, in this author’s opinion, would be an exercise far beyond Whitehall as it currently works. Those who want either substantial reform of the EU or leave will have to innovate. One obvious idea is to develop a roadmap and the framework for a new UK-EU treaty ‘Wiki-style’. Such decentralised movements have achieved astonishing things in science and could in politics.

When Cummings wrote this the referendum was just a promise from David Cameron, who was not expected to win a majority at the 2015 general election to implement it, and a vote to leave would have been regarded by many as an extremely remote possibility. A lot has changed since then, although not in the way the machinery of government works. Whether or not Brexit is an exercise “far beyond” Whitehall’s ability will be something Cummings will be in the process of finding out.

There is a reference to the Cummings paper, which was commissioned by the Business for Britain group, on his blog, but the link to the report no longer works. That’s a shame because it is well worth reading. In it Cummings argues that recent mass immigration and the financial crisis have changed the dynamics of the EU debate, that Cameron’s proposed renegotiation is unlikely to make voters feel more pro-EU, that an out campaign should avoid taking specific positions on many issues and that the best argument for leaving would be “we will save a fortune and we can spend that on the NHS or tax cuts or whatever we want to make Britain stronger”. Most political strategy documents turn out to be unreliable guides to the future but this one is unusual because, five years on, its analysis seems prescient. Which is all the more reason for thinking Cummings might have been right about Whitehall failing to cope with Brexit too ...

tailwindhome

Some interest stuff from Nick Gutteridge on ongoing technical discussions on the backstop

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/sta ... 8235638784

He does make a good point on his sign off

12/ For now we're in a political environment where complex, technical ideas like this don't stand much of a chance. The EU side acknowledges that. Its hope is that the opening whirlwind of the Johnson premiership will subside and then the two sides can sit down and talk detail.

TheBigBean

TailWindHome wrote:

Some interest stuff from Nick Gutteridge on ongoing technical discussions on the backstop

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/sta ... 8235638784

He does make a good point on his sign off

12/ For now we're in a political environment where complex, technical ideas like this don't stand much of a chance. The EU side acknowledges that. Its hope is that the opening whirlwind of the Johnson premiership will subside and then the two sides can sit down and talk detail.

The idea sounds very sensible.

I have feeling I might have suggested it way upthread!

rick_chasey

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Some interest stuff from Nick Gutteridge on ongoing technical discussions on the backstop

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/sta ... 8235638784

He does make a good point on his sign off

12/ For now we're in a political environment where complex, technical ideas like this don't stand much of a chance. The EU side acknowledges that. Its hope is that the opening whirlwind of the Johnson premiership will subside and then the two sides can sit down and talk detail.

The idea sounds very sensible.

I have feeling I might have suggested it way upthread!

still plugging your pro-smuggling stance?

TheBigBean

Rick Chasey wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Some interest stuff from Nick Gutteridge on ongoing technical discussions on the backstop

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/sta ... 8235638784

He does make a good point on his sign off

12/ For now we're in a political environment where complex, technical ideas like this don't stand much of a chance. The EU side acknowledges that. Its hope is that the opening whirlwind of the Johnson premiership will subside and then the two sides can sit down and talk detail.

The idea sounds very sensible.

I have feeling I might have suggested it way upthread!

still plugging your pro-smuggling stance?

That's what the twitter thread is about with the exception of agriculture.

bompington

TheBigBean wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Some interest stuff from Nick Gutteridge on ongoing technical discussions on the backstop

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/sta ... 8235638784

He does make a good point on his sign off

12/ For now we're in a political environment where complex, technical ideas like this don't stand much of a chance. The EU side acknowledges that. Its hope is that the opening whirlwind of the Johnson premiership will subside and then the two sides can sit down and talk detail.

The idea sounds very sensible.

I have feeling I might have suggested it way upthread!

Surely everything about the way Johnson is going about it suggests that he is trying very hard to make everything happen before the whirlwind subsides?

tailwindhome

TBB's plan goes mainstream

(though as someone pointed out on Twitter, would that not be infrastructure )

thistle_

TailWindHome wrote:

Some interest stuff from Nick Gutteridge on ongoing technical discussions on the backstop

https://twitter.com/nick_gutteridge/sta ... 8235638784

He does make a good point on his sign off

12/ For now we're in a political environment where complex, technical ideas like this don't stand much of a chance. The EU side acknowledges that. Its hope is that the opening whirlwind of the Johnson premiership will subside and then the two sides can sit down and talk detail.

It's not like they've had any time so far to come up with and test any alternative to the backstop, which would make the backstop irrelevant.