BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

1…11151116111811201121…2102

Comments

  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 51,369
    Ben6899 wrote:
    Pinno wrote:
    bompington wrote:
    Ivan Denisovich wrote:
    The days rolled by ... But the years ... never moved by a second

    It is quite a leap of faith to compare a day in the life of Coopster with a Stalinist labour camp but good effort.

    I wholeheartedly disagree.
    :D
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • robert88
    robert88 Posts: 2,696
    bompington wrote:
    john80 wrote:
    Maybe getting a deputy prime minister role was worth the following electoral fall out for giving up a key lib dem policy.
    Or perhaps, even, once he was unexpectedly faced with the real world, he decided that pushing a wildly expensive subsidy to the middle classes wasn't his highest priority?

    Nick Clegg is Nick Clegg's highest priority.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,738
    We bemoan the lack of compromise but slate anyone who does it seems....
    _
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,699
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    We bemoan the lack of compromise but slate anyone who does it seems....
    I think you are describing two sets of people. That, and people thinking compromise is great so long as it's someone else doing it.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,738
    rjsterry wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    We bemoan the lack of compromise but slate anyone who does it seems....
    I think you are describing two sets of people. That, and people thinking compromise is great so long as it's someone else doing it.

    It’s a stunning ignorance on how coalition politics works
    _
  • drhaggis
    drhaggis Posts: 1,150
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    We bemoan the lack of compromise but slate anyone who does it seems....
    I think you are describing two sets of people. That, and people thinking compromise is great so long as it's someone else doing it.

    It’s a stunning ignorance on how coalition politics works

    Today I read Kirkup's Spectator piece on David Gauke's deselection, and made the mistake of glancing the comments. The amount of astroturfing and polarisation going on is amazing. Compromise by anybody is being made more difficult by the day.
  • robert88
    robert88 Posts: 2,696
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    We bemoan the lack of compromise but slate anyone who does it seems....
    I think you are describing two sets of people. That, and people thinking compromise is great so long as it's someone else doing it.

    It’s a stunning ignorance on how coalition politics works

    Do tell us how it works.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,738
    Robert88 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    We bemoan the lack of compromise but slate anyone who does it seems....
    I think you are describing two sets of people. That, and people thinking compromise is great so long as it's someone else doing it.

    It’s a stunning ignorance on how coalition politics works

    Do tell us how it works.

    When you are a minority partner in a coalition you obviously cannot enact the entirety of your manifesto.

    In fact, as a minority partner, you often will have to concede on a majority of your pledges, usually in return for reining the majority partner in on particular red lines you have. They decided to give in on raising the existing tuition fees (put in by labour no less) in return for more LD policies elsewhere.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... mplemented

    The tax break was quite a big one, and in the context of heavy austerity post-crash.
    _
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,643
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Robert88 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    We bemoan the lack of compromise but slate anyone who does it seems....
    I think you are describing two sets of people. That, and people thinking compromise is great so long as it's someone else doing it.

    It’s a stunning ignorance on how coalition politics works

    Do tell us how it works.

    When you are a minority partner in a coalition you obviously cannot enact the entirety of your manifesto.

    In fact, as a minority partner, you often will have to concede on a majority of your pledges, usually in return for reining the majority partner in on particular red lines you have. They decided to give in on raising the existing tuition fees (put in by labour no less) in return for more LD policies elsewhere.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... mplemented

    The tax break was quite a big one, and in the context of heavy austerity post-crash.

    You're glossing over the major trade - a referendum on AV which was perceived to be about obtaining more seats for the Lib Dems in exchange for the tuition fees. It was political suicide.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,699
    TheBigBean wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Robert88 wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    We bemoan the lack of compromise but slate anyone who does it seems....
    I think you are describing two sets of people. That, and people thinking compromise is great so long as it's someone else doing it.

    It’s a stunning ignorance on how coalition politics works

    Do tell us how it works.

    When you are a minority partner in a coalition you obviously cannot enact the entirety of your manifesto.

    In fact, as a minority partner, you often will have to concede on a majority of your pledges, usually in return for reining the majority partner in on particular red lines you have. They decided to give in on raising the existing tuition fees (put in by labour no less) in return for more LD policies elsewhere.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... mplemented

    The tax break was quite a big one, and in the context of heavy austerity post-crash.

    You're glossing over the major trade - a referendum on AV which was perceived to be about obtaining more seats for the Lib Dems in exchange for the tuition fees. It was political suicide.

    Don't think anyone is arguing that the LDs played that negotiation particularly well. I think they admit that they were a bit green. Better to look at more practiced coalition partners outside the UK.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,196
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    Even though we will probably have a situation next time where Labour or Conservatives will still win with 20% of the vote or something equally daft.
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    I think that was a contributory factor but I also think a lot of people who would have been open to it were really peeved at LD so voted against on that basis. i.e. any Labour voter or left leaning LD supporter was naturally annoyed at LD for going into into coalition with Conservatives.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,699
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    Even though we will probably have a situation next time where Labour or Conservatives will still win with 20% of the vote or something equally daft.

    It's possible the next election may refocus minds on the subject. If Farage had won a few seats it might have shone more of a light on how little substance there is behind the personality. In much the same way the brief resurgence of the BNP exposed them as the bunch of idiots who were only good at getting into fights, which some had forgotten they were.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • sgt.pepper
    sgt.pepper Posts: 300
    morstar wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    I think that was a contributory factor but I also think a lot of people who would have been open to it were really peeved at LD so voted against on that basis. i.e. any Labour voter or left leaning LD supporter was naturally annoyed at LD for going into into coalition with Conservatives.

    They dropped the ball on what should have been their highest priority - caving to accepting AV+ (as a 'stepping stone to PR') was weak, and then they got slammed by negative campaigning after the establishment panicked seeing it might pass anyway. Then of course tuition fees, lol.

    They also forgot most of their base is middle-class urbanites who want moderate Left-wing policies but none of the Labour 'grittiness.' Nick Clegg deserved the stitch up he got for teaming up with his old public school buddies.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,272
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    Even though we will probably have a situation next time where Labour or Conservatives will still win with 20% of the vote or something equally daft.

    Last poll I saw had Farage winning 25% of the vote and 320 seats.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,805
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    Even though we will probably have a situation next time where Labour or Conservatives will still win with 20% of the vote or something equally daft.

    Last poll I saw had Farage winning 25% of the vote and 320 seats.
    In which case the Country really is FUBAR.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,567
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    Even though we will probably have a situation next time where Labour or Conservatives will still win with 20% of the vote or something equally daft.

    Last poll I saw had Farage winning 25% of the vote and 320 seats.
    Was that in any particular scenario? Or just based on current voting intention?
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    PBlakeney wrote:
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    Even though we will probably have a situation next time where Labour or Conservatives will still win with 20% of the vote or something equally daft.

    Last poll I saw had Farage winning 25% of the vote and 320 seats.
    In which case the Country really is FUBAR.

    There's a really easy solution to make Farage and TBP obsolete and that is by respecting democracy.

    The 31st October will be when parliament will be judged on this
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,738
    Stevo 666 wrote:
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    Even though we will probably have a situation next time where Labour or Conservatives will still win with 20% of the vote or something equally daft.

    Last poll I saw had Farage winning 25% of the vote and 320 seats.
    Was that in any particular scenario? Or just based on current voting intention?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/statu ... 2001892353

    BREX: 22% (-1)
    CON: 22% (+2)
    LAB: 20% (-)
    LDEM: 19% (-2)
    GRN: 10% (+1)
    _
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,941
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    Even though we will probably have a situation next time where Labour or Conservatives will still win with 20% of the vote or something equally daft.

    Last poll I saw had Farage winning 25% of the vote and 320 seats.

    Either your source is wrong or its a typo
    No way 25% gets 320 seats
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,699
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    PBlakeney wrote:
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    Even though we will probably have a situation next time where Labour or Conservatives will still win with 20% of the vote or something equally daft.

    Last poll I saw had Farage winning 25% of the vote and 320 seats.
    In which case the Country really is FUBAR.

    There's a really easy solution to make Farage and TBP obsolete and that is by respecting democracy.

    The 31st October will be when parliament will be judged on this

    I think it is optimistic to think leaving the EU by 31st October would stop Farage. He and Banks have developed too much of a taste for wallowing in all the attention and other people's money.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,272
    TailWindHome wrote:
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    Even though we will probably have a situation next time where Labour or Conservatives will still win with 20% of the vote or something equally daft.

    Last poll I saw had Farage winning 25% of the vote and 320 seats.

    Either your source is wrong or its a typo
    No way 25% gets 320 seats

    Probably BS and based on flawed assumptions.

    But in our multi party reality, there is the possibility for a party with a pretty small percentage of support to end up with a crazy number of seats if it is distributed in the right way.
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    rjsterry wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    PBlakeney wrote:
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    Even though we will probably have a situation next time where Labour or Conservatives will still win with 20% of the vote or something equally daft.

    Last poll I saw had Farage winning 25% of the vote and 320 seats.
    In which case the Country really is FUBAR.

    There's a really easy solution to make Farage and TBP obsolete and that is by respecting democracy.

    The 31st October will be when parliament will be judged on this

    I think it is optimistic to think leaving the EU by 31st October would stop Farage. He and Banks have developed too much of a taste for wallowing in all the attention and other people's money.

    What reason would Farage have for staying in politics once we leave the EU?

    Also, where would his support come from as current supporters of TBP would move back to their natural political homes, including most of TBP politicians.
  • drhaggis
    drhaggis Posts: 1,150
    TailWindHome wrote:
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    Even though we will probably have a situation next time where Labour or Conservatives will still win with 20% of the vote or something equally daft.

    Last poll I saw had Farage winning 25% of the vote and 320 seats.

    Either your source is wrong or its a typo
    No way 25% gets 320 seats

    While I agree those figures are unlikely, technically you can get all 650 seats with 100/N% plus 650 votes, where N is the number of parties that contest all constituencies.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,272
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:

    I think it is optimistic to think leaving the EU by 31st October would stop Farage. He and Banks have developed too much of a taste for wallowing in all the attention and other people's money.

    What reason would Farage have for staying in politics once we leave the EU?

    Also, where would his support come from as current supporters of TBP would move back to their natural political homes, including most of TBP politicians.

    a) money and ego

    b) Even if we do leave the EU, Farage will campaign on that basis that "they" did it wrong. Anyway, I thought everyone in the main parties were untrustworthy traitors.
  • schlepcycling
    schlepcycling Posts: 1,614
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    TailWindHome wrote:
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    I think they overestimated how much the british public were interested in voting reform.

    Even though we will probably have a situation next time where Labour or Conservatives will still win with 20% of the vote or something equally daft.

    Last poll I saw had Farage winning 25% of the vote and 320 seats.

    Either your source is wrong or its a typo
    No way 25% gets 320 seats

    Probably BS and based on flawed assumptions.

    But in our multi party reality, there is the possibility for a party with a pretty small percentage of support to end up with a crazy number of seats if it is distributed in the right way.

    As evidenced by the 2015 general election, where UKIP got 12.6% of the vote but only returned 1 MP the same as the Green party who only got 3.8% but also returned 1 MP. UKIP's votes were spread across many constituencies whereas the Greens were all in Brighton.
    'Hello to Jason Isaacs'
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 18,941
    Seat prediction here.

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi ... y=2017base

    Though it would take a brave pollster to predict anything
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 51,369
    TailWindHome wrote:
    Though it would take a brave pollster to predict anything

    I think Boris won't be PM.
    I think some of the Tories are now in a corner. Boris is their No1 Brexit man (if that's the reason for electing him) but he is prone to gaffs. Hunt is the better candidate but he's a remainer.
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • verylonglegs
    verylonglegs Posts: 3,955
    Pinno wrote:
    TailWindHome wrote:
    Though it would take a brave pollster to predict anything

    I think Boris won't be PM.
    I think some of the Tories are now in a corner. Boris is their No1 Brexit man (if that's the reason for electing him) but he is prone to gaffs. Hunt is the better candidate but he's a remainer.

    If you really think that then Hunt is 6/1, in a two horse race. I won't be putting any of my money on it though.
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,196
    KingstonGraham wrote:
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    rjsterry wrote:

    I think it is optimistic to think leaving the EU by 31st October would stop Farage. He and Banks have developed too much of a taste for wallowing in all the attention and other people's money.

    What reason would Farage have for staying in politics once we leave the EU?

    Also, where would his support come from as current supporters of TBP would move back to their natural political homes, including most of TBP politicians.

    a) money and ego

    b) Even if we do leave the EU, Farage will campaign on that basis that "they" did it wrong. Anyway, I thought everyone in the main parties were untrustworthy traitors.
    Yeah, if we leave with a deal - any deal at all - Farage et al will decide it is not the true Brexit and will keep making things difficult for everyone.

    As evidenced by them advocating continued membership of CU, SM etc. before the ref then flipping to "no deal is the only true Brexit" now - they're duplicitous liars.

    I don't really get Farage's motivations - he's rich enough not to need Banks blowing smoke up his *rse. He must see his own inconsistency. It must be ego.

Categories