BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

rjsterry

TailWindHome wrote:

Johnson is perfect for them. He will promise them an imaginary world that cannot exist, then fail. Let's say 75% of the 160,000 then defect to Farage. Does that change anything at all?

rick_chasey

So what happens when BoJo is elected and then he is unable to do anything in the two weeks of Parliament before the deadline, and inevitably has to go cap in hand to the EU to ask for an extension?

In what realistic way is this not the only scenario available if he gets elected?

drhaggis

Rick Chasey wrote:

So what happens when BoJo is elected and then he is unable to do anything in the two weeks of Parliament before the deadline, and inevitably has to go cap in hand to the EU to ask for an extension?

In what realistic way is this not the only scenario available if he gets elected?

Well, he could lose an NCV, which, incredibly, isn't too outlandish a claim.

kingstongraham

DrHaggis wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So what happens when BoJo is elected and then he is unable to do anything in the two weeks of Parliament before the deadline, and inevitably has to go cap in hand to the EU to ask for an extension?

In what realistic way is this not the only scenario available if he gets elected?

Well, he could lose an NCV, which, incredibly, isn't too outlandish a claim.

What are the rules about someone becoming Prime Minister without having a commons majority? Is he automatically PM even though it was Theresa May that was asked to form the government?

rjsterry

DrHaggis wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So what happens when BoJo is elected and then he is unable to do anything in the two weeks of Parliament before the deadline, and inevitably has to go cap in hand to the EU to ask for an extension?

In what realistic way is this not the only scenario available if he gets elected?

Well, he could lose an NCV, which, incredibly, isn't too outlandish a claim.

Which presents the headbangers illustrated in the chart above with a dilemma. Most of the polls show a win for Labour in a GE, but if Johnson, their great hope, has just failed to produce a unicorn from a hat, what are they going to do? A vote for Farage lets Corbyn in, and Farage's economic policies (in as much as there are any) are even more dangerous than McDonnell's.

pinno

Farage hasn't a single seat in Parliament.
Why are they giving this khunt Oxygen?

Farage will not be PM.

bompington

TailWindHome wrote:

I could stomach Brexiteers' arguments when they were trying to make a case that it would benefit the UK. But it's become the end in itself, a religious article of faith, hasn't it? Doesn't matter if everything goes to hell, we must deliver Brexit!

It is funny (in the most depressing possible sense of the word) how they say that only thing that would make them back down on Brexit is the spectre of Corbyn - yet their actions make him increasingly more likely to be PM.

Fools.

rjsterry

Pinno wrote:

Farage hasn't a single seat in Parliament.
Why are they giving this khunt Oxygen?

Farage will not be PM.

Because for all his narcissistic populist bilge, he does at the root of it have a point. The Tories promised they would take us out of the EU and they haven't.

rick_chasey

bompington wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

I could stomach Brexiteers' arguments when they were trying to make a case that it would benefit the UK. But it's become the end in itself, a religious article of faith, hasn't it? Doesn't matter if everything goes to hell, we must deliver Brexit!

It is funny (in the most depressing possible sense of the word) how they say that only thing that would make them back down on Brexit is the spectre of Corbyn - yet their actions make him increasingly more likely to be PM.

Fools.

Not me but you will appreciate

Imagine if you travelled through time to the mid-80s and told the Provisional IRA leadership that they could get a united Ireland from the Tories, so long as they guaranteed it would make British people poorer, more isolated and an international laughing stock.

john80

The next PM can walk us to No Deal and all that parliament can do is call a no confidence vote in the Government and hope that Tory MP's revolt in sufficient numbers to result in a general election. This I believe is the legal standpoint. Even in this scenario you are relying on the EU agreeing to an extension and if we know anything from prior experience it is likely that this would have some terms attached to it that would guess what be unfavourable. I am not sure those Tory MP's would survive this within their constituencies so it is a question of how committed they are to no Brexit.

I wonder how many times we can say that we are leaving on a date and force companies such as car industries to shut down factories or stock pile parts and then whinge about the loss of production. #Embarassing.

kingstongraham

john80 wrote:

The next PM can walk us to No Deal and all that parliament can do is call a no confidence vote in the Government and hope that Tory MP's revolt in sufficient numbers to result in a general election. This I believe is the legal standpoint. Even in this scenario you are relying on the EU agreeing to an extension and if we know anything from prior experience it is likely that this would have some terms attached to it that would guess what be unfavourable. I am not sure those Tory MP's would survive this within their constituencies so it is a question of how committed they are to no Brexit.

I wonder how many times we can say that we are leaving on a date and force companies such as car industries to shut down factories or stock pile parts and then whinge about the loss of production. #Embarassing.

If there is a no confidence vote, and sufficient MPs in the current switch their support to an alternative PM, would there need to be a general election? Can the Queen ask someone else to try to form a government?

If it's about giving control back to the UK Parliament, that would make sense. Then if we don't get an extension, the new government can revoke A50 to avoid a no-deal exit.

Not saying any of that is likely, but surely possible if the chaos builds to sufficient levels of insanity.

kingstongraham

I wonder what the opinion polls would say if there were a direct choice between Brexit and a return to weekly bin collections.

rjsterry

john80 wrote:

The next PM can walk us to No Deal and all that parliament can do is call a no confidence vote in the Government and hope that Tory MP's revolt in sufficient numbers to result in a general election. This I believe is the legal standpoint. Even in this scenario you are relying on the EU agreeing to an extension and if we know anything from prior experience it is likely that this would have some terms attached to it that would guess what be unfavourable. I am not sure those Tory MP's would survive this within their constituencies so it is a question of how committed they are to no Brexit.

I wonder how many times we can say that we are leaving on a date and force companies such as car industries to shut down factories or stock pile parts and then whinge about the loss of production. #Embarassing.

What unfavourable terms were attached to the previous two extensions?

darkhairedlord

KingstonGraham wrote:

I wonder what the opinion polls would say if there were a direct choice between Brexit and a return to weekly bin collections.

Brexit vs bring-back-hanging

surrey_commuter

john80 wrote:

The next PM can walk us to No Deal and all that parliament can do is call a no confidence vote in the Government and hope that Tory MP's revolt in sufficient numbers to result in a general election. This I believe is the legal standpoint. Even in this scenario you are relying on the EU agreeing to an extension and if we know anything from prior experience it is likely that this would have some terms attached to it that would guess what be unfavourable. I am not sure those Tory MP's would survive this within their constituencies so it is a question of how committed they are to no Brexit.

I wonder how many times we can say that we are leaving on a date and force companies such as car industries to shut down factories or stock pile parts and then whinge about the loss of production. #Embarassing.

you just need to continue the thought process... why are we pursuing a policy that results in the car industry shutting down factories and stockpiling parts.

Anyway the car industry seems to be adopting a more long term risk reduction policy.

robert88

john80 wrote:

The next PM can walk us to No Deal and all that parliament can do is call a no confidence vote in the Government and hope that Tory MP's revolt in sufficient numbers to result in a general election. This I believe is the legal standpoint. Even in this scenario you are relying on the EU agreeing to an extension and if we know anything from prior experience it is likely that this would have some terms attached to it that would guess what be unfavourable. I am not sure those Tory MP's would survive this within their constituencies so it is a question of how committed they are to no Brexit.

I wonder how many times we can say that we are leaving on a date and force companies such as car industries to shut down factories or stock pile parts and then whinge about the loss of production. #Embarassing.

Yes, and we don't want to embarrass ourselves in the eyes of the world, do we?

I mean they might think we were stupid.

narbs

KingstonGraham wrote:

I wonder what the opinion polls would say if there were a direct choice between Brexit and a return to weekly bin collections.

I remain firmly of the belief that had the UK imposed migration limits on the accession countries in the early 2000s (as other EU members did) and switched to blue passports (never been anything stopping that) we wouldn't be in this mess.

Businesses benefited from being able to fill low-skilled vacancies which UK workers wouldn't or couldn't take up, we all benefited from more care workers and cheaper, skilled tradespeople and successive governments let the EU take the blame when people moaned about immigrants.

pblakeney

darkhairedlord wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

I wonder what the opinion polls would say if there were a direct choice between Brexit and a return to weekly bin collections.

Brexit vs bring-back-hanging

Pretty certain that was one of the reasons for voting Brexit, so the old ideas could be reinstated.
#bloodyEUstoppingusdoingaswewish

kingstongraham

narbs wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

I wonder what the opinion polls would say if there were a direct choice between Brexit and a return to weekly bin collections.

I remain firmly of the belief that had the UK imposed migration limits on the accession countries in the early 2000s (as other EU members did) and switched to blue passports (never been anything stopping that) we wouldn't be in this mess.

Businesses benefited from being able to fill low-skilled vacancies which UK workers wouldn't or couldn't take up, we all benefited from more care workers and cheaper, skilled tradespeople and successive governments let the EU take the blame when people moaned about immigrants.

I remain firmly convinced people don't really care about the EU. That's my hot take.

rjsterry

An interesting thread on the interpretation of polling and how Labour is basing its policy/dithering on a 2nd ref on flawed conclusions.

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status ... 0319705088

The shadow cabinet are worried that moving to a more pro-remain stance will lose them some seats, but at the same time one survey has them losing votes to the LibDems, Greens and Brexit Party in a 2:1:1 ratio based on their current stance.

briantrumpet

rjsterry wrote:

An interesting thread on the interpretation of polling and how Labour is basing its policy/dithering on a 2nd ref on flawed conclusions.

https://twitter.com/robfordmancs/status ... 0319705088

The shadow cabinet are worried that moving to a more pro-remain stance will lose them some seats, but at the same time one survey has them losing votes to the LibDems, Greens and Brexit Party in a 2:1:1 ratio based on their current stance.

I think it's more likely wilful misinterpretation of polls (or sticking fingers in ears and going "lalala"), to suit the ideological ends of Corbyn and his two 'trusted advisers'. His giving an inch or two to Remain is to stop Labour splitting, that's all.

robert88

rick_chasey

Taoiseach saying there is “enormous hostility” to another extension....

Given it needs unanimous support....

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

Taoiseach saying there is “enormous hostility” to another extension....

Given it needs unanimous support....

Also WA will not be reopened (as if this needed repeating) and no deal = no transition, no nothing just out on our arse.

rick_chasey

How would you lead the European Union? https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019 ... minal=true

drhaggis

Rick Chasey wrote:

How would you lead the European Union? https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2019 ... minal=true

Trying to compromise, until my opinion of Merkel's economic model puts me between a rock and a hard place?

robert88

rjsterry wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Taoiseach saying there is “enormous hostility” to another extension....

Given it needs unanimous support....

Also WA will not be reopened (as if this needed repeating) and no deal = no transition, no nothing just out on our ars*.

OK so when do we need to panic-buy?

tailwindhome

rjsterry wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Taoiseach saying there is “enormous hostility” to another extension....

Given it needs unanimous support....

Also WA will not be reopened (as if this needed repeating) and no deal = no transition, no nothing just out on our ars*.

Ireland currently preparing the Budget based on a no deal assumption.

pinno

I was saying just yesterday that it's been too long for Boris to have a gaff...
Then he has a row.

Can the pressure on him be ramped up so he trips over properly?
Candidate hustings and personal flaws. It's the right cocktail.

robert88

This funny:

Nigel Farage accused of faking a letter from a 10-year-old Brexiteer whose 'school brainwashes him to be pro-EU'

He's right, the letter is indeed amazing but we know his tricks.