BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

john80

TailWindHome wrote:

Seat prediction here.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi ... y=2017base

Though it would take a brave pollster to predict anything

It is interesting reading but on a local level I just don't think that the Brexit party could get that swing. If we take Barrow in Furness I can see them winning as this is traditionally a Labour seat and Corbyn's anti nuclear retoric is pretty dismal in a town where nuclear subs are a major employer. However in places like Copeland, Penrith and Carlisle are all the Farmers and wealthy traditional voters going to vote for the Brexit party instead of the conservatives when if you want Brexit but are a farmer would you really want a new party with no manifesto trying to run the new subsidy system.

briantrumpet

bobmcstuff wrote:

[I don't really get Farage's motivations - he's rich enough not to need Banks blowing smoke up his *rse. He must see his own inconsistency. It must be ego.

I think he's a wrecker, and it boosts his ego to smash the status quo. Plus, I suspect, one way or another, he'd do quite nicely in $s, £s, €s, roubles or whatever, if the UK turns into a basket case.

kingstongraham

john80 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Seat prediction here.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi ... y=2017base

Though it would take a brave pollster to predict anything

It is interesting reading but on a local level I just don't think that the Brexit party could get that swing. If we take Barrow in Furness I can see them winning as this is traditionally a Labour seat and Corbyn's anti nuclear retoric is pretty dismal in a town where nuclear subs are a major employer. However in places like Copeland, Penrith and Carlisle are all the Farmers and wealthy traditional voters going to vote for the Brexit party instead of the conservatives when if you want Brexit but are a farmer would you really want a new party with no manifesto trying to run the new subsidy system.

I can only assume so. Everyone's gone a bit crazy.

I'm past the "I can't see that happening" stage.

rjsterry

john80 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Seat prediction here.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi ... y=2017base

Though it would take a brave pollster to predict anything

It is interesting reading but on a local level I just don't think that the Brexit party could get that swing. If we take Barrow in Furness I can see them winning as this is traditionally a Labour seat and Corbyn's anti nuclear retoric is pretty dismal in a town where nuclear subs are a major employer. However in places like Copeland, Penrith and Carlisle are all the Farmers and wealthy traditional voters going to vote for the Brexit party instead of the conservatives when if you want Brexit but are a farmer would you really want a new party with no manifesto trying to run the new subsidy system.

Voting intentions are not that reliable, when there is no specific general election on the cards. It's an answer without consequences. A bit different when you are stood in the booth and you will be stuck with whoever wins for up to 5 years.

tailwindhome

rjsterry wrote:

john80 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Seat prediction here.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi ... y=2017base

Though it would take a brave pollster to predict anything

It is interesting reading but on a local level I just don't think that the Brexit party could get that swing. If we take Barrow in Furness I can see them winning as this is traditionally a Labour seat and Corbyn's anti nuclear retoric is pretty dismal in a town where nuclear subs are a major employer. However in places like Copeland, Penrith and Carlisle are all the Farmers and wealthy traditional voters going to vote for the Brexit party instead of the conservatives when if you want Brexit but are a farmer would you really want a new party with no manifesto trying to run the new subsidy system.

Voting intentions are not that reliable, when there is no specific general election on the cards. It's an answer without consequences. A bit different when you are stood in the booth and you will be stuck with whoever wins for up to 5 years.

I'd say if the Brexit Party got 75 seats in a GE they'd have had a great night.

Stevo_666

rjsterry wrote:

john80 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Seat prediction here.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi ... y=2017base

Though it would take a brave pollster to predict anything

It is interesting reading but on a local level I just don't think that the Brexit party could get that swing. If we take Barrow in Furness I can see them winning as this is traditionally a Labour seat and Corbyn's anti nuclear retoric is pretty dismal in a town where nuclear subs are a major employer. However in places like Copeland, Penrith and Carlisle are all the Farmers and wealthy traditional voters going to vote for the Brexit party instead of the conservatives when if you want Brexit but are a farmer would you really want a new party with no manifesto trying to run the new subsidy system.

Voting intentions are not that reliable, when there is no specific general election on the cards. It's an answer without consequences. A bit different when you are stood in the booth and you will be stuck with whoever wins for up to 5 years.

Hmmm. Some people applied a similar logic to the Brexit referendum, except that the timescale was more than 5 years.

rjsterry

Stevo 666 wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

john80 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Seat prediction here.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi ... y=2017base

Though it would take a brave pollster to predict anything

It is interesting reading but on a local level I just don't think that the Brexit party could get that swing. If we take Barrow in Furness I can see them winning as this is traditionally a Labour seat and Corbyn's anti nuclear retoric is pretty dismal in a town where nuclear subs are a major employer. However in places like Copeland, Penrith and Carlisle are all the Farmers and wealthy traditional voters going to vote for the Brexit party instead of the conservatives when if you want Brexit but are a farmer would you really want a new party with no manifesto trying to run the new subsidy system.

Voting intentions are not that reliable, when there is no specific general election on the cards. It's an answer without consequences. A bit different when you are stood in the booth and you will be stuck with whoever wins for up to 5 years.

Hmmm. Some people applied a similar logic to the Brexit referendum, except that the timescale was more than 5 years.

True enough. Although there were certainly some who thought they were voting out safe in the knowledge that they wouldn't win. The guy pitching to be PM didn't look too pleased to win at first.

rick_chasey

I’m still not clear what happens when the new Tory leader gets sent home a day into their premiership after the EU refuses to renegotiate.

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

I’m still not clear what happens when the new Tory leader gets sent home a day into their premiership after the EU refuses to renegotiate.

Bluster. Prevarication. Accusations. Eventual acceptance.

It's starting already.

Peston
(@itvpeston)
There is absolutely no way the ERG would vote to revive the Withdrawal Agreement and @BorisJohnson has “absolutely guaranteed” he won’t be bringing it back Mark Francois tells @Peston #Peston pic.twitter.com/AyeMQPoETq

June 26, 2019

It feels like Francois is saying this as much to try and tie Johnson down to a commitment as because he actually believes it will happen. Quite what an absolute guarantee means from someone who denied his own child is anyone's guess.

rick_chasey

So they will vote through the withdrawal agreement?

pinno

verylonglegs wrote:

Pinno wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Though it would take a brave pollster to predict anything

I think Boris won't be PM.
I think some of the Tories are now in a corner. Boris is their No1 Brexit man (if that's the reason for electing him) but he is prone to gaffs. Hunt is the better candidate but he's a remainer.

If you really think that then Hunt is 6/1, in a two horse race. I won't be putting any of my money on it though.

Erm...

TailWindHome wrote:

Though it would take a brave pollster to predict anything

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

So they will vote through the withdrawal agreement?

Not at first, of course.

rick_chasey

rjsterry wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So they will vote through the withdrawal agreement?

Not at first, of course.

How will it have a second hearing?

It blows my mind no one is actually serious about solving the parliamentary dilemma.

Pross

Rick Chasey wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So they will vote through the withdrawal agreement?

Not at first, of course.

How will it have a second hearing?

It blows my mind no one is actually serious about solving the parliamentary dilemma.

Surely that's just an acknowledgment that it's unsolvable? You've got a party political system that uses to be able to force through policies but this is an issue on which both the major parties are split (The Tories amongst the MPs themselves and Labour more between the MPs and a large part of their core vote).

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

So they will vote through the withdrawal agreement?

Not at first, of course.

How will it have a second hearing?

It blows my mind no one is actually serious about solving the parliamentary dilemma.

When it is the only way forward? I'm speculating of course, but there is no way they can do any other sort of deal in 20 working days (or even if they work through the summer), and I do think leaving without a deal is almost as unlikely, although it might be attempted. Which leaves further delay, the WA or remaining.

I don't think Johnson would even break a sweat over reneging on his 'do or die' promise. There'd be some waffle about what Churchill or Wellington would have done and then on with the show.

cycleclinic

how will this thread last I wonder.

Brexit has exposed a cultural split and the parties based on ecomonic ideologies (and class ideology to some extent) cant grapple with. The split is between those who identify as liberals who want liberties enshirned in law, law that a u.k government cant just overturn, and those that are less liberal but more to the point feel no law cant be overturn by the government and the will of the people is supreme. That means when the courts rule that prisoners have the right to vote if there sentence is under a year, the government can pass a law overturning that or simply ignore the ruling. Those people would argue it the rule of common sense and that this will lead to fair outcomes because were british and we are fair to one another. What have those silly remainers got to worry about. Us leave folk are not orgres.

Hazel and I have been seriously thinking about emigrating to Denmark. we are that sick of the U.K's split personality now. I am not sure what binding us together. It not shared values any more. If I am right about brexit there is not much that binds the English together or the English with the Scots, Irish or welsh apart from a love of the NHS, tea and fish and chips. The country we were both born in is now arguing with itself like some out of control friend that has lost the plot and refuses to be helped because they know best. Maybe thats part of the problem. as a sense of british identity has unravelled the English have started thinking who are they and it turns out they have no idea.

40 years of rolling back the state maybe partly to blame. there used to be a time where we built commnunites. I live in one. There was a time where the council used to put on things to do in the estate. People here remember that. All the house are built around communial spaces (not that many families let there kids play out now, we do though We encourage our daughter to play out) and you know that community persist to a large extent. In a new housing estate, houses are built not communities. In some places right to buy homes have been split into rooms for rent (peterborough) and then no surprise the locals then complain about how there community has degenerated when migrants or other folk requiring low cost short term accommodation move in and out. I dont think it any surprise why the U.K now feels like it falling apart and no one can agree a way forward.

Yet we are all still obssesed about brexit and yet the underlying problem still exists. Brexit or no brexit does anyone have any clue on how to build a nation again, one that made of 4 nations with one of them very split. that a bigger problem. I am not sure BoJo with all his charm can grapple with that any more than any other MP currently in parliament. Tea anyone.

robert88

There is no such thing as society - there are people, some of whom catch buses even after the age of thirty, some of whom lie beside buses and make little models out of buses and there are famliz. Some famliz are ardwerkin, others are just very rich and the rest are benefit scroungers with flat screen tellies on which to watch Jeremy Kyle when he comes back.

Thanks, I could just murder a cuppa. Black no sugar for me please. And make it strong.

cycleclinic

Isn't that the problem. If there no society there is nothing holding us together so different groups pull in different directions and can get nowhere.

Listen to radio 4's the invention of Britain and its quite clear we are going through that process now where our new identity is being formed.
The question is which of the two tribes I'm England will come out on top. The constitutionalists I.e those that like rights enshrined in law which is backed up by EU law and those that prefer rights to be agreed by convention and some set into law that could be overturned by a parliamentary majority or by plebiscite. That means the courts have a lesser role than they do now.

I say England in this tug of war because Scotland, Wales and northern Ireland dont have much of say in our unequal union. Hense I think Brexit is the sideshow or backdrop to what really going on. This is what depresses me.

rick_chasey

Ben6899

Rick Chasey wrote:

I’m still not clear what happens when the new Tory leader gets sent home a day into their premiership after the EU refuses to renegotiate.

Model buses. Throwing plates at the girlfriend.

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

Interesting but not unexpected stats. What's the point you're making here?

rick_chasey

What do you think the point is? Because if it's evidence based it should be the same.

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

What do you think the point is? Because if it's evidence based it should be the same.

Either that the EU is not that worried about a no deal scenario impact, or that the tariff barriers will not be massive overall. Depends how you want to look at it.

Now what's your point?

rick_chasey

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

What do you think the point is? Because if it's evidence based it should be the same.

Either that the EU is not that worried about a no deal scenario impact, or that the tariff barriers will not be massive overall. Depends how you want to look at it.

Now what's your point?

More the former, but both.

The ERG bluster is, as ever, misplaced.

rjsterry

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

What do you think the point is? Because if it's evidence based it should be the same.

Either that the EU is not that worried about a no deal scenario impact, or that the tariff barriers will not be massive overall. Depends how you want to look at it.

Now what's your point?

The interview with Taro Kono this morning suggested that just the extra time delay involved in checking shipments would be the critical factor, not the tariff itself.

drhaggis

[Edited] Totally the wrong thread :-/

Dmitri Grozubinsky's graph has the issue of not including non-tariff barriers, although otherwise it's hard to disagree w/ Stevo on this one.

surrey_commuter

DrHaggis wrote:

I totally hate close passes by motorcycles and mopeds. The sad thing is, I'm sure mopeds know how it feels to be bullied by heavier vehicles. Come on mate, I may actually try to avoid the pothole ahead, maybe give me more than a feet or two while overtaking at speed.

This is particularly bad in Spain.

is that the conclusion you are drawing from Rick's chart?

kingstongraham

DrHaggis wrote:

I totally hate close passes by motorcycles and mopeds. The sad thing is, I'm sure mopeds know how it feels to be bullied by heavier vehicles. Come on mate, I may actually try to avoid the pothole ahead, maybe give me more than a feet or two while overtaking at speed.

This is particularly bad in Spain.

Once we're out of Europe, we won't be subject to the ways of Spanish moped riders. Take back control.

drhaggis

KingstonGraham wrote:

DrHaggis wrote:

I totally hate close passes by motorcycles and mopeds. The sad thing is, I'm sure mopeds know how it feels to be bullied by heavier vehicles. Come on mate, I may actually try to avoid the pothole ahead, maybe give me more than a feet or two while overtaking at speed.

This is particularly bad in Spain.

Once we're out of Europe, we won't be subject to the ways of Spanish moped riders. Take back control.

Not having to deal with mopeds is probably one of the benefits of the Scottish weather...

Stevo_666

DrHaggis wrote:

[Edited] Totally the wrong thread :-/

Dmitri Grozubinsky's graph has the issue of not including non-tariff barriers, although otherwise it's hard to disagree w/ Stevo on this one.

Agree. And also with RJS.

It's the non tariff barriers that are likely to have more impact (thats the case I'm my organisation) but the pie chart Rick posted made no mention of those.

As I've said before to certain people, it always helps to explain your point (and back it up with evidence where needed), rather than just cut and paste something from the interweb and assume that people can know what you're thinking. Hey ho.