BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

tailwindhome

EU seem to be about to close out a trade deal with most of South America

robert88

TailWindHome wrote:

EU seem to be about to close out a trade deal with most of South America

Done.

If it took 3^2*3 countries ((75-48/2)-43)*5/2 years. How long will it take the UK/2?

darkhairedlord

Robert88 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

EU seem to be about to close out a trade deal with most of South America

Done.

If it took 3^2*3 countries ((75-48/2)-43)*5/2 years. How long will it take the UK/2?

Argentina will block any deal

cycleclinic

EU trade deal with merscour countries including Argentina is agreed in draft. That's another trade deal out of reach for us.

Perhaps boris will call a general election rather than wait for a vote of no confidence.

Polls suggest the Tories and lib dems are evens with about 20% of the vote with labour possibly a bit a ahead. The Brexit party might do as well as the Tories but with less than 25% of the vote each the Tories and the Brexit party are unlikely to have a majority. In fact no party would have a majority
So maybe boris wont go to the electorate but maybe he is deluded enough to think the Tories can win. However the fence sitter might then get into downing street but labour's share of the vote may not be enough to get a majority and the lib dems probably won't enter into another coalition.

If you think it bad now just wait till autumn.

Things can only get worse....

robert88

thecycleclinic wrote:

EU trade deal with merscour countries including Argentina is agreed in draft. That's another trade deal out of reach for us.

Perhaps boris will call a general election rather than wait for a vote of no confidence.

Polls suggest the Tories and lib dems are evens with about 20% of the vote with labour possibly a bit a ahead. The Brexit party might do as well as the Tories but with less than 25% of the vote each the Tories and the Brexit party are unlikely to have a majority. In fact no party would have a majority
So maybe boris wont go to the electorate but maybe he is deluded enough to think the Tories can win. However the fence sitter might then get into downing street but labour's share of the vote may not be enough to get a majority and the lib dems probably won't enter into another coalition.

If you think it bad now just wait till autumn.

Things can only get worse....

https://youtu.be/tS3HuATK3Lw?t=49

bobmcstuff

Apparently Boris is thought to be considering bringing in Jacob Rees Mogg as a negotiator... (BBC)

God help us all...

rjsterry

And Hunt's answer to businesses that suffer under a no deal exit is "It'll be worth it".

Will it f***. That'll really be of comfort when making staff redundant.

sungod

my answer to tories who lose their seats when we remain is "it was worth it"

rick_chasey

rjsterry wrote:

And Hunt's answer to businesses that suffer under a no deal exit is "It'll be worth it".

Will it f***. That'll really be of comfort when making staff redundant.

So bankruptcies and unemployment are a price worth paying for Brexit but slightly higher taxes for more equality and better public services aren’t, right?

rjsterry

Rick Chasey wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

And Hunt's answer to businesses that suffer under a no deal exit is "It'll be worth it".

Will it f***. That'll really be of comfort when making staff redundant.

So bankruptcies and unemployment are a price worth paying for Brexit but slightly higher taxes for more equality and better public services aren’t, right?

Hunt said he would tell business owners that a no-deal Brexit was necessary to maintain the UK’s image abroad as “a country where politicians do what the people tell them to do”.

Bit late to be worrying about our image abroad, isn't it? I'm obviously missing something because I thought politicians' obligation was to exercise their judgement on our behalf, not blindly follow instructions.

...But I would find support for those companies to help them weather the storms.”

Oh please. As if there is the slightest chance that they will hand out that much cash.

cal_stewart

TailWindHome wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

john80 wrote:

TailWindHome wrote:

Seat prediction here.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi ... y=2017base

Though it would take a brave pollster to predict anything

It is interesting reading but on a local level I just don't think that the Brexit party could get that swing. If we take Barrow in Furness I can see them winning as this is traditionally a Labour seat and Corbyn's anti nuclear retoric is pretty dismal in a town where nuclear subs are a major employer. However in places like Copeland, Penrith and Carlisle are all the Farmers and wealthy traditional voters going to vote for the Brexit party instead of the conservatives when if you want Brexit but are a farmer would you really want a new party with no manifesto trying to run the new subsidy system.

Voting intentions are not that reliable, when there is no specific general election on the cards. It's an answer without consequences. A bit different when you are stood in the booth and you will be stuck with whoever wins for up to 5 years.

I'd say if the Brexit Party got 75 seats in a GE they'd have had a great night.

Kind of where I'm at with the Brexit party. I don't think they would take many seats from the tories, however they could make gains imho in the north against labour. Could see the lib dems taking votes from labour and the tories in the south but not as big as is expected. One thing is becoming clear get use to coalition governments in future.

darkhairedlord

rjsterry wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

And Hunt's answer to businesses that suffer under a no deal exit is "It'll be worth it".

Will it f***. That'll really be of comfort when making staff redundant.

So bankruptcies and unemployment are a price worth paying for Brexit but slightly higher taxes for more equality and better public services aren’t, right?

Hunt said he would tell business owners that a no-deal Brexit was necessary to maintain the UK’s image abroad as “a country where politicians do what the people tell them to do”.

Bit late to be worrying about our image abroad, isn't it? I'm obviously missing something because I thought politicians' obligation was to exercise their judgement on our behalf, not blindly follow instructions.

...But I would find support for those companies to help them weather the storms.”

Oh please. As if there is the slightest chance that they will hand out that much cash.

Of course, if the pain is worth it to achieve brexit, could we not just get all brexit supporters to register to swap with remainers that lose their jobs.

tailwindhome

England. You've gone stark raving bonkers

https://twitter.com/MartinDaubney/statu ... 7351055360


(You absolutely need the sound on for that one)

rjsterry

darkhairedlord wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

And Hunt's answer to businesses that suffer under a no deal exit is "It'll be worth it".

Will it f***. That'll really be of comfort when making staff redundant.

So bankruptcies and unemployment are a price worth paying for Brexit but slightly higher taxes for more equality and better public services aren’t, right?

Hunt said he would tell business owners that a no-deal Brexit was necessary to maintain the UK’s image abroad as “a country where politicians do what the people tell them to do”.

Bit late to be worrying about our image abroad, isn't it? I'm obviously missing something because I thought politicians' obligation was to exercise their judgement on our behalf, not blindly follow instructions.

...But I would find support for those companies to help them weather the storms.”

Oh please. As if there is the slightest chance that they will hand out that much cash.

Of course, if the pain is worth it to achieve brexit, could we not just get all brexit supporters to register to swap with remainers that lose their jobs.

This morning he was talking about farming and fishing, as if they would be the only areas impacted. It is weird how totemic fishing has become. Even my little niche of professional services is three and a half times bigger than fishing.

rick_chasey

Meanwhile in Switzerland...



https://www.ft.com/content/41091f2c-9ad ... 640c9feebb

But yes, the EU's gonna blink first guys.

Swiss regulators have imposed a ban on trading Swiss equities on exchanges in the EU after the European Commission let the “equivalence” status granted to Switzerland and its stock exchange expire, amid failed negotiations over a trading agreement with the EU.

The equivalence permit lets Swiss and EU investors freely trade across each others’ borders. From Monday, Swiss shares can only be traded on the Zurich exchange, via a recognised broker.

European investors will face punishments ranging from financial penalties to imprisonment of up to three years if they trade stocks, such as consumer company Nestlé or pharmaceutical group Novartis, away from Switzerland’s exchange.

briantrumpet

TailWindHome wrote:

England. You've gone stark raving bonkers

https://twitter.com/MartinDaubney/statu ... 7351055360


(You absolutely need the sound on for that one)

My considered, intellectual take on that is... er... WTAF?

If air raid sirens don't put the chill up your spine, then there's something seriously wrong with you.

rjsterry

Well the Brexit Party is just a fan club for Farage, so I'm not surprised.

Back to Hunt.

If you’re a sheep farmer in Shropshire or a fishermen in Peterhead I have a simple message for you. I know you face uncertainty if we have to leave the EU without a deal.

I will mitigate the impact of no deal Brexit on you and step in to help smooth those short term difficulties. If we could do it for the bankers in the financial crisis, we can do it for our fisherman, farmers and small businesses now ...

Apparently he's planning to allocate £6bn to this fund. With 5.7million SMEs, that's an average of a grand each. Equivalent to 2/5 of FA if your market has vanished. And he seems to think that the 'short term difficulties' will be over and done with in a couple of weeks if he thinks a couple of grand will tide people over. Contrast that with the two orders of magnitude larger bailout of the banking sector.

surrey_commuter

rjsterry wrote:

Well the Brexit Party is just a fan club for Farage, so I'm not surprised.

Back to Hunt.

If you’re a sheep farmer in Shropshire or a fishermen in Peterhead I have a simple message for you. I know you face uncertainty if we have to leave the EU without a deal.

I will mitigate the impact of no deal Brexit on you and step in to help smooth those short term difficulties. If we could do it for the bankers in the financial crisis, we can do it for our fisherman, farmers and small businesses now ...

Apparently he's planning to allocate £6bn to this fund. With 5.7million SMEs, that's an average of a grand each. Equivalent to 2/5 of FA if your market has vanished. And he seems to think that the 'short term difficulties' will be over and done with in a couple of weeks if he thinks a couple of grand will tide people over. Contrast that with the two orders of magnitude larger bailout of the banking sector.

Why compensate farm/fishymen for something that they want?

rjsterry

Surrey Commuter wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Well the Brexit Party is just a fan club for Farage, so I'm not surprised.

Back to Hunt.

If you’re a sheep farmer in Shropshire or a fishermen in Peterhead I have a simple message for you. I know you face uncertainty if we have to leave the EU without a deal.

I will mitigate the impact of no deal Brexit on you and step in to help smooth those short term difficulties. If we could do it for the bankers in the financial crisis, we can do it for our fisherman, farmers and small businesses now ...

Apparently he's planning to allocate £6bn to this fund. With 5.7million SMEs, that's an average of a grand each. Equivalent to 2/5 of FA if your market has vanished. And he seems to think that the 'short term difficulties' will be over and done with in a couple of weeks if he thinks a couple of grand will tide people over. Contrast that with the two orders of magnitude larger bailout of the banking sector.

Why compensate farm/fishymen for something that they want?

Haven't the faintest. Given that the figures don't remotely stack up, I'm not sure how seriously to take this as a proposal.

rjsterry

Just reading some of the write-up on Hancock's interview by Humphrys. Running his credibility through the shredder.

Hancock dismissed a question about why he was now backing Johnson given what he had said about business by replying: “But you’ve got to look forward in life, you’ve got to look forward, John.”

pblakeney

rjsterry wrote:

Just reading some of the write-up on Hancock's interview by Humphrys. Running his credibility through the shredder.

Hancock dismissed a question about why he was now backing Johnson given what he had said about business by replying: “But you’ve got to look forward in life, you’ve got to look forward, John.”

Roughly translates to - supporting the probable next Prime minister is best for my career.

darkhairedlord

PBlakeney wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Just reading some of the write-up on Hancock's interview by Humphrys. Running his credibility through the shredder.

Hancock dismissed a question about why he was now backing Johnson given what he had said about business by replying: “But you’ve got to look forward in life, you’ve got to look forward, John.”

Roughly translates to - supporting the probable next Prime minister is best for my career.

He's being shredding by pretty much every news organisation, even sky and the daily heil.

pblakeney

darkhairedlord wrote:

PBlakeney wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Just reading some of the write-up on Hancock's interview by Humphrys. Running his credibility through the shredder.

Hancock dismissed a question about why he was now backing Johnson given what he had said about business by replying: “But you’ve got to look forward in life, you’ve got to look forward, John.”

Roughly translates to - supporting the probable next Prime minister is best for my career.

He's being shredding by pretty much every news organisation, even sky and the daily heil.

Just goes to prove the level of desperation.

Jez mon

Jeremy Hunt telling civil servants that August leave is cancelled until they are fully prepared for a no deal.

rjsterry

Some good stuff from Paul Johnson at the IFS.

Paul Johnson of the IFS wrote:

Farming and fishing are tiny parts of the economy. It is actually manufacturing and services who are likely to suffer particularly badly, not as a result of tariffs - we obsess about tariffs - it’s the non-tariff barriers ... the matching the regulations in other countries ... which potentially have really significant effects on things like the cars and the textile industries.

Not that many party members will listen.

surrey_commuter

rjsterry wrote:

Some good stuff from Paul Johnson at the IFS.

Paul Johnson of the IFS wrote:

Farming and fishing are tiny parts of the economy. It is actually manufacturing and services who are likely to suffer particularly badly, not as a result of tariffs - we obsess about tariffs - it’s the non-tariff barriers ... the matching the regulations in other countries ... which potentially have really significant effects on things like the cars and the textile industries.

Not that many party members will listen.

You can almost hear him silently screaming “stop talking about the f’kin tariffs’

As most think no-deal comes with an implementation period when there will be no tariffs then presumably this also has no other trade barriers. At some point the loons will demand barriers to trade to prove the purity of their Brexit.

rick_chasey

Surrey Commuter wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Some good stuff from Paul Johnson at the IFS.

Paul Johnson of the IFS wrote:

Farming and fishing are tiny parts of the economy. It is actually manufacturing and services who are likely to suffer particularly badly, not as a result of tariffs - we obsess about tariffs - it’s the non-tariff barriers ... the matching the regulations in other countries ... which potentially have really significant effects on things like the cars and the textile industries.

Not that many party members will listen.

You can almost hear him silently screaming “stop talking about the f’kin tariffs’

As most think no-deal comes with an implementation period when there will be no tariffs then presumably this also has no other trade barriers. At some point the loons will demand barriers to trade to prove the purity of their Brexit.

Autarky is the inevitable logical conclusion of the Brexit thought process.

But then, when the island doesn't deliver the resources & skills required through autarky ,the only way to continue to be self sufficient is to make other parts of the world yours....

surrey_commuter

Rick Chasey wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Some good stuff from Paul Johnson at the IFS.

Paul Johnson of the IFS wrote:

Farming and fishing are tiny parts of the economy. It is actually manufacturing and services who are likely to suffer particularly badly, not as a result of tariffs - we obsess about tariffs - it’s the non-tariff barriers ... the matching the regulations in other countries ... which potentially have really significant effects on things like the cars and the textile industries.

Not that many party members will listen.

You can almost hear him silently screaming “stop talking about the f’kin tariffs’

As most think no-deal comes with an implementation period when there will be no tariffs then presumably this also has no other trade barriers. At some point the loons will demand barriers to trade to prove the purity of their Brexit.

Autarky is the inevitable logical conclusion of the Brexit thought process.

But then, when the island doesn't deliver the resources & skills required through autarky ,the only way to continue to be self sufficient is to make other parts of the world yours....

Only the followers. The leadership want completely free trade. Well free for people to export to us, we would obviously have tariff (and non-tariff) barriers to our exports.

rjsterry

I don't have much time for the SNP, but describing Hunt and Johnson as Thelma and Louise seems pretty accurate at the moment.

darkhairedlord

rjsterry wrote:

I don't have much time for the SNP, but describing Hunt and Johnson as Thelma and Louise seems pretty accurate at the moment.

Laurel and Hardy is closer.