BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

norvernrob

finchy wrote:

Jez mon wrote:

With regards to the trade deficit to the EU, which side does that actually give the advantage to in negations?

All else being equal, it would put the advantage in the side that buys most. However, all else isn't equal. Our economy is about 20% of the size of the post-Brexit EU, so our exports to the EU is a much bigger proportion of our economy than the EU's exports to the UK is a proportion of their economy (remember, we'll be desperate to sell to a market of about 440 million people, whereas they'd want to sell to a population of 65 million, max). Basically, we'd be forced to blink first. That's why the most likely outcome of this is a Norway-style deal, which is not what people voted for.

I don't think that's true at all. The big players in the EU are all that matters when it comes to the negotiations, the little countries have no influence. Germany's trade surplus with the UK is €50bn, second only to the US at €54bn, France and Austria come next and the rest are nowhere.

Those numbers matter, the big countries in the EU need a trade deal with the UK and a free trade deal is inevitable. If that comes with free movement then there will be a massive rise in support for UKIP and potentially far worse, other right wing groups may well garner a lot of support.

It's the government who should be dealing with this, and all we've had so far is Cameron running away, Osbourne not saying a word for days then coming out with doom and gloom, knowing full well he won't even be chancellor by October anyway. The whole thing so far is a shambles, and the blame lies 100% with politicians, not the people who voted to leave.

norvernrob

Surrey Commuter wrote:

under EU law you can not negotiate a separate trade deal with a member and individual members can not negotiate their own separate deals with third parties.

This means we must trigger A50 before we can negotiate our exit (2 years) then we can negotiate our future trade deals with the EU and others.

I am sure that if we left on reasonable terms and did not compare people to the Nazis or bang on about their citizens being such scum we need to erect barriers there would be a way around this... In that case see above - if they want they can trap us in a Kafkaesque nightmare.

We can start negotiating with any country we want right now, and get all the deals in place for when we exit. We just can't sign anything yet.

finchy

TheBigBean wrote:

Under WTO rules you can't use different rates for different countries.

The UK should negotiate its exit before A50. If the EU refuses, it should arrange a plethora of trade deals to come into effect with other countries, so that the impact of A50 is mitigated. Right now, it should simply be realistic and tell everyone this is a 5-10 year process. Of course, during that time a lot might change in the EU.

We aren't in a position to stamp our feet and make demands. Of course, making a deal before triggering A50 might make a lot of sense from the remain side's point of view. If they can show the public that the deal is not what they thought they'd be getting, the government might be able to get away with offering (and winning) a second referendum.

On the other hand, I wouldn't want to start annoying the other 27 countries right now - we don't want to p1ss them off before negotiations start.

finchy

NorvernRob wrote:

I don't think that's true at all. The big players in the EU are all that matters when it comes to the negotiations, the little countries have no influence. Germany's trade surplus with the UK is €50bn, second only to the US at €54bn, France and Austria come next and the rest are nowhere.

The trade deal has to meet with the unanimous agreement of all member states. So the little countries do matter, and that is why there will be no access to the single market without freedom of movement.

NorvernRob wrote:

Those numbers matter, the big countries in the EU need a trade deal with the UK and a free trade deal is inevitable.

The big countries will want a trade deal with the UK, but they know that we need one more desperately. Lack of a trade deal will be a slap in the face to them, but absolutely devastating to us.

NorvernRob wrote:

If that comes with free movement then there will be a massive rise in support for UKIP and potentially far worse, other right wing groups may well garner a lot of support.

Why would the EU be concerned about that if we're leaving?

NorvernRob wrote:

It's the government who should be dealing with this, and all we've had so far is Cameron running away, Osbourne not saying a word for days then coming out with doom and gloom, knowing full well he won't even be chancellor by October anyway. The whole thing so far is a shambles, and the blame lies 100% with politicians, not the people who voted to leave.

So let's hear the Brexiters' cunning plan then... oh, yes, they don't have one.

surrey_commuter

NorvernRob wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

under EU law you can not negotiate a separate trade deal with a member and individual members can not negotiate their own separate deals with third parties.

This means we must trigger A50 before we can negotiate our exit (2 years) then we can negotiate our future trade deals with the EU and others.

I am sure that if we left on reasonable terms and did not compare people to the Nazis or bang on about their citizens being such scum we need to erect barriers there would be a way around this... In that case see above - if they want they can trap us in a Kafkaesque nightmare.

We can start negotiating with any country we want right now, and get all the deals in place for when we exit. We just can't sign anything yet.

no it is against EU law and we are a part of the EU. We could ignore that but they could make our lives very difficult

bobmcstuff

Surrey Commuter wrote:

NorvernRob wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

under EU law you can not negotiate a separate trade deal with a member and individual members can not negotiate their own separate deals with third parties.

This means we must trigger A50 before we can negotiate our exit (2 years) then we can negotiate our future trade deals with the EU and others.

I am sure that if we left on reasonable terms and did not compare people to the Nazis or bang on about their citizens being such scum we need to erect barriers there would be a way around this... In that case see above - if they want they can trap us in a Kafkaesque nightmare.

We can start negotiating with any country we want right now, and get all the deals in place for when we exit. We just can't sign anything yet.

no it is against EU law and we are a part of the EU. We could ignore that but they could make our lives very difficult

There's no way they can really police that though - "fact finding mission" with some informal negotiations etc.

TheBigBean

The Uk could, for example, agree an opt in Commonwealth trading agreement on behalf of other countries. It could then opt in when it leaves the EU.

pblakeney

bobmcstuff wrote:

There's no way they can really police that though - "fact finding mission" with some informal negotiations etc.

Except they are (understandably) acting like an unwanted divorcee and telling us to get lost if we are going.

finchy

TheBigBean wrote:

The Uk could, for example, agree an opt in Commonwealth trading agreement on behalf of other countries. It could then opt in when it leaves the EU.

Which won't compensate for not having a deal with the world's largest economy.

verylonglegs

Seems to have been a fair few mentions on here suggesting that because BMW needs to sell cars to us we'll have all our demands met but as Ugo points out as the UK shrinks then the demand will be less anyway. We are talking about BMW too by the way, a large experieced company with many markets across the globe, not some mickey mouse outfit who only sells to the UK. If they sell a few thousand less cars they'll just adjust their prices and wider strategy accordingly and will still make their money.

TheBigBean

finchy wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

The Uk could, for example, agree an opt in Commonwealth trading agreement on behalf of other countries. It could then opt in when it leaves the EU.

Which won't compensate for not having a deal with the world's largest economy.

Of course not. Having a grown-up conversation with the EU before A50 would be the best thing for everyone. My suggestion relates to a situation where this is not possible, and only after 5-10 years.

Ultimately, it is like business, we are where we are. We have the option of moping around moaning, or the option of being proactive and looking for the best solutions.

finchy

TheBigBean wrote:

finchy wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

The Uk could, for example, agree an opt in Commonwealth trading agreement on behalf of other countries. It could then opt in when it leaves the EU.

Which won't compensate for not having a deal with the world's largest economy.

Of course not. Having a grown-up conversation with the EU before A50 would be the best thing for everyone. My suggestion relates to a situation where this is not possible, and only after 5-10 years.

Ultimately, it is like business, we are where we are. We have the option of moping around moaning, or the option of being proactive and looking for the best solutions.

Personally, I just want the people of the UK to accept that we're not going to be able to just go and make a load of demands from the EU and expect them to cave in. As the husband of an immigrant, I really fear a massive anti-immigrant backlash if the government makes a big sing and dance about freedom of movement in negotiations, knowing full well that the EU will never compromise on this issue. If that happens, I may well leave the UK.

ugo.santalucia

verylonglegs wrote:

Seems to have been a fair few mentions on here suggesting that because BMW needs to sell cars to us we'll have all our demands met but as Ugo points out as the UK shrinks then the demand will be less anyway. We are talking about BMW too by the way, a large experieced company with many markets across the globe, not some mickey mouse outfit who only sells to the UK. If they sell a few thousand less cars they'll just adjust their prices and wider strategy accordingly and will still make their money.

I am also worried about the other way... as Britain will rhyme with Brexit and the latter is seen as deeply uncool, who in the continent will want to be seen driving a Brexit Range Rover?
People seem to forget Brexit will cause deep resentment among virtually 99% of EU citizens, dragged into uncertainty and possibly economic slowdown by a single nation... how keen will they be to buy British? I suspect not very keen

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean wrote:

finchy wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

The Uk could, for example, agree an opt in Commonwealth trading agreement on behalf of other countries. It could then opt in when it leaves the EU.

Which won't compensate for not having a deal with the world's largest economy.

Of course not. Having a grown-up conversation with the EU before A50 would be the best thing for everyone. My suggestion relates to a situation where this is not possible, and only after 5-10 years.

Ultimately, it is like business, we are where we are. We have the option of moping around moaning, or the option of being proactive and looking for the best solutions.

it is not moping and moaning it is playing by the rules and leaving on good terms in an attempt to secure the best possible terms. My worry is that you are all picking this "bollocks to them" attitude from the Brexit camp and that some of these clowns are suggesting we put two fingers up and break all the rules on the way out.

TheBigBean

finchy wrote:

Personally, I just want the people of the UK to accept that we're not going to be able to just go and make a load of demands from the EU and expect them to cave in. As the husband of an immigrant, I really fear a massive anti-immigrant backlash if the government makes a big sing and dance about freedom of movement in negotiations, knowing full well that the EU will never compromise on this issue. If that happens, I may well leave the UK.

Well, if your wife is non-EU then more power to May is a disaster. Boris had offered quite a few welcome concessions on this front. If your wife is EU then you should think yourself lucky that living with her has been trivial recently and spare a thought for those with non-EU spouses.

If it is a general racism concern, then this is, I agree, a great shame. My plan is to not leave London, but then this has always been my plan - shocking bigotry in the shires is not new.

surrey_commuter

ugo.santalucia wrote:

verylonglegs wrote:

Seems to have been a fair few mentions on here suggesting that because BMW needs to sell cars to us we'll have all our demands met but as Ugo points out as the UK shrinks then the demand will be less anyway. We are talking about BMW too by the way, a large experieced company with many markets across the globe, not some mickey mouse outfit who only sells to the UK. If they sell a few thousand less cars they'll just adjust their prices and wider strategy accordingly and will still make their money.

I am also worried about the other way... as Britain will rhyme with Brexit and the latter is seen as deeply uncool, who in the continent will want to be seen driving a Brexit Range Rover?
People seem to forget Brexit will cause deep resentment among virtually 99% of EU citizens, dragged into uncertainty and possibly economic slowdown by a single nation... how keen will they be to buy British? I suspect not very keen

If a populist political party in Canada whipped up a storm of anti-Brit sentiment that ended in them putting enormous restrictions on British immigrants it would not encourage you to buy Canadian or go on holiday or study there.

pblakeney

ugo.santalucia wrote:

I am also worried about the other way... as Britain will rhyme with Brexit and the latter is seen as deeply uncool, who in the continent will want to be seen driving a Brexit Range Rover?
People seem to forget Brexit will cause deep resentment among virtually 99% of EU citizens, dragged into uncertainty and possibly economic slowdown by a single nation... how keen will they be to buy British? I suspect not very keen

To give people the other perspective. Remember how the Scots were to be treated if they had went independent?
That is how the EU sees us today.

pblakeney

Surrey Commuter wrote:

If a populist political party in Canada whipped up a storm of anti-Brit sentiment that ended in them putting enormous restrictions on British immigrants it would not encourage you to buy Canadian or go on holiday or study there.

Parti Quebecois?
Not so keen on the English but a lovely place for a holiday. If you can avoid politics.

surrey_commuter

Why do people think that we can negotiate trade deals on the sly with a nudge and a wink when it has taken Canada nine years to negotiate one with the EU?

How many politicians will be around in even 2 years to honour a nudge and a wink?

Also remove your colonialist heads from your imperial backsides for long enough to ask how well liked we are in many of these Commonwealth countries. Let's hope we were not imprisoning, torturing and/or killing any of their forefathers or perceived to be stealing their natural assets.

kingstongraham

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Also remove your colonialist heads from your imperial backsides for long enough to ask how well liked we are in many of these Commonwealth countries. Let's hope we were not imprisoning, torturing and/or killing any of their forefathers or perceived to be stealing their natural assets.

I wasn't - can't speak for you.

rick_chasey

Pound just fell below $1.30


The world's money telling the UK it's worth a lot less after Brexit.

bendertherobot

I'm paying for the balance of my holiday in euros tomorrow now. Had held off as it crept upwards. Doing it now as it seems the only way is down.

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

Pound just fell below $1.30


The world's money telling the UK it's worth a lot less after Brexit.

And yet Sterling is still close to its 10 year average against the Euro - what does that tell you?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=10Y

rick_chasey

That Brexit is also hurting the Euro?

And it doesn't look all that close to me in that chart...?

bendertherobot

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Pound just fell below $1.30


The world's money telling the UK it's worth a lot less after Brexit.

And yet Sterling is still close to its 10 year average against the Euro - what does that tell you?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=10Y

That I'm really glad I didn't go skiing in December 2008

orraloon

I spent today in Scarborough, enjoying the Great British Summer in the company of a segment of the Great British Public.

And these people had a vote? :shock:

Obviously unable to control either their calorie intake or to carry a tray of chips in the street without dropping 1/2 of them. Good that they have Taken Back Control of 'our' country.

finchy

TheBigBean wrote:

finchy wrote:

Personally, I just want the people of the UK to accept that we're not going to be able to just go and make a load of demands from the EU and expect them to cave in. As the husband of an immigrant, I really fear a massive anti-immigrant backlash if the government makes a big sing and dance about freedom of movement in negotiations, knowing full well that the EU will never compromise on this issue. If that happens, I may well leave the UK.

Well, if your wife is non-EU then more power to May is a disaster. Boris had offered quite a few welcome concessions on this front. If your wife is EU then you should think yourself lucky that living with her has been trivial recently and spare a thought for those with non-EU spouses.

If it is a general racism concern, then this is, I agree, a great shame. My plan is to not leave London, but then this has always been my plan - shocking bigotry in the shires is not new.

My wife is from Slovakia, but is an ethnic Hungarian, so is used to being a scapegoat for populist politicians. It's not outcome of negotiations that concerns me so much - as I'm very confident that the government will allow freedom of movement in exchange for access to the free market - it's the public backlash when the government goes into negotiations pretending that they are really desperate to control immigration, only to be slapped down by the EU.

verylonglegs

NorvernRob wrote:

finchy wrote:

Jez mon wrote:

With regards to the trade deficit to the EU, which side does that actually give the advantage to in negations?

All else being equal, it would put the advantage in the side that buys most. However, all else isn't equal. Our economy is about 20% of the size of the post-Brexit EU, so our exports to the EU is a much bigger proportion of our economy than the EU's exports to the UK is a proportion of their economy (remember, we'll be desperate to sell to a market of about 440 million people, whereas they'd want to sell to a population of 65 million, max). Basically, we'd be forced to blink first. That's why the most likely outcome of this is a Norway-style deal, which is not what people voted for.

Those numbers matter, the big countries in the EU need a trade deal with the UK and a free trade deal is inevitable. If that comes with free movement then there will be a massive rise in support for UKIP and potentially far worse, other right wing groups may well garner a lot of support.

You have to brace yourself for that then because what you are demonstrating is a total failure to understand the question of the referendum which is why a demagogue like Farage was able to manipulate you. It was a referendum on EU membership, not on movement of people. Farage made you believe it was about people because it is what you wanted to believe but think about it, theoretically the government can leave the EU and sign agreements with any country in the world agreeing to free movement of people and they'll have still upheld the democratic decision of the referendum because we are no longer in the EU.

If we are independent then UKIP have to rebrand and the only way to do that is become overtly nationalist and racist to continue the 'no foreigners' route. Probably precisely why Farage has left to count his cash.

Stevo_666

Rick Chasey wrote:

That Brexit is also hurting the Euro?

And it doesn't look all that close to me in that chart...?

Have a look at where the rate has been in the last few years then. It has also been materially lower in the last few years without the world spinning off its axis.

Meanwhile, life's winners are making the most of the situation we are in, for example by looking the export opportunities presented by a weaker pound

briantrumpet

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Pound just fell below $1.30


The world's money telling the UK it's worth a lot less after Brexit.

And yet Sterling is still close to its 10 year average against the Euro - what does that tell you?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=10Y

That we've also managed to drag the euro rate down against the dollar?