BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

surrey_commuter

bendertherobot wrote:

I wonder if it's sacrificial. The last of the brexiters to go. Leadsom will follow once she publishes her tax returns. May, the remainer left in charge, economy tanking, multi dimensional paper from Letwin identifies no savings, net loss, free movement. Option in Cabinet paper to remain.....

might not have wait that long - http://reaction.life/was-andrea-leadsom ... y-hotshot/

coopster_the_1st

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

I had a call yesterday with the CFO of our UK manufacturing and was discussing the possible impact of export tariffs on some of the goods that he sells into Europe if we have a hard BREXIT - potentially around 6%-7%. We talked about whether there was any merit in moving production to France where we also have a factory and whether it was worth the high taxes, restrictive labour laws, tendency to strike at the drop of a hat in that country, in order to avoid import tariffs which are far from certain to be imposed. We both laughed and moved onto the next agenda item of how to minimise the costs and maximise the export opportunities and managed to pull together an outline plan.

Italy and France are acting aggressively imposing new job acts, which aim to "deregulate" the job market. It is inevitable that conditions will change and they will become more business friendly and less dictated by unions. Italian newspapers are reporting on Renzi's policy to make Milan into a big financial centre, taking advantage of Brexit... in a less regulated jobs market that could happen

Milan have no chance of becoming a big financial centre in the short to medium term, maybe even the long term as well. Firstly you need a stable banking system which is definitely not the case at the moment.

surrey_commuter

Coopster the 1st wrote:

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

I had a call yesterday with the CFO of our UK manufacturing and was discussing the possible impact of export tariffs on some of the goods that he sells into Europe if we have a hard BREXIT - potentially around 6%-7%. We talked about whether there was any merit in moving production to France where we also have a factory and whether it was worth the high taxes, restrictive labour laws, tendency to strike at the drop of a hat in that country, in order to avoid import tariffs which are far from certain to be imposed. We both laughed and moved onto the next agenda item of how to minimise the costs and maximise the export opportunities and managed to pull together an outline plan.

Italy and France are acting aggressively imposing new job acts, which aim to "deregulate" the job market. It is inevitable that conditions will change and they will become more business friendly and less dictated by unions. Italian newspapers are reporting on Renzi's policy to make Milan into a big financial centre, taking advantage of Brexit... in a less regulated jobs market that could happen

Milan have no chance of becoming a big financial centre in the short to medium term, maybe even the long term as well. Firstly you need a stable banking system which is definitely not the case at the moment.

Depends what you call big... did you know that the mighty Berlin Stock Exchange has annual trades of €69bn but is dwarfed by Borsa Italiana (Milano) with trades worth an average €3.2bn per day.

bobmcstuff

We're owned by a Norwegian company hence our budget is set in NOK - we're now going to be miles behind budget because the £ has crashed 11% against the NOK...

kingstongraham

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Depends what you call big... did you know that the mighty Berlin Stock Exchange has annual trades of €69bn but is dwarfed by Borsa Italiana (Milano) with trades worth an average €3.2bn per day.

What's the figure for Frankfurt?

surrey_commuter

KingstonGraham wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Depends what you call big... did you know that the mighty Berlin Stock Exchange has annual trades of €69bn but is dwarfed by Borsa Italiana (Milano) with trades worth an average €3.2bn per day.

What's the figure for Frankfurt?

Berlin was relevant because Coop referenced it this morning as their CEO had said that they had no plans to leave London

So here are the numbers for stock exchanges
London - $3,272,000,000
Frankfurt - $1,738,000,000
Milan - $600,000,000
Berlin - $69,000,000

there is obviously far more to a financial centre than a stock exchange. In reality if each of the regional centres acquired 10,000 highly paid jobs they would be very happy as that is billions in taxes.

rick_chasey

pound index.

The average price for GBP since the end of the financial crisis in 2008 is USD 1.5673(as of yesterday morning).


Other than during 1984 and 1985, the lowest daily close recorded prior to the UK referendum was USD 1.3725 on 11 June, 2001.

surrey_commuter

Rick Chasey wrote:

pound index.

The average price for GBP since the end of the financial crisis in 2008 is USD 1.5673(as of yesterday morning).


Other than during 1984 and 1985, the lowest daily close recorded prior to the UK referendum was USD 1.3725 on 11 June, 2001.

Can you explain that chart

rick_chasey

It's the pound index which tracks the pound versus a basket of other currencies.

Shows pound's value falling off a cliff on Brexit and not recovering (described as "big enough to base jump off by a mate).

Lookyhere

You ve got to wonder how bad things will have to get before those who voted for BREXIT will say "sorry we got it wrong"

Stevo_666

ugo.santalucia wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

I had a call yesterday with the CFO of our UK manufacturing and was discussing the possible impact of export tariffs on some of the goods that he sells into Europe if we have a hard BREXIT - potentially around 6%-7%. We talked about whether there was any merit in moving production to France where we also have a factory and whether it was worth the high taxes, restrictive labour laws, tendency to strike at the drop of a hat in that country, in order to avoid import tariffs which are far from certain to be imposed. We both laughed and moved onto the next agenda item of how to minimise the costs and maximise the export opportunities and managed to pull together an outline plan.

Italy and France are acting aggressively imposing new job acts, which aim to "deregulate" the job market. It is inevitable that conditions will change and they will become more business friendly and less dictated by unions. Italian newspapers are reporting on Renzi's policy to make Milan into a big financial centre, taking advantage of Brexit... in a less regulated jobs market that could happen

If you believe that Italy and especially France can make sufficient reforms to Labour law, taxation and general business friendliness to make them attractive potential financial centres then you are probably being naively optimistic.

There is no way that I would invest any of my Groups money in either of those countries than we already have. The French descend into near anarchy when any hint of reducing workers rights is mentioned and the political will to really take on the unions probably does not exist. Italy may have more pragmatism in that area but the beaurocracy and general lack of business friendliness in my experience is still a long way off the mark. I won't go into details here but both countries have been real battlegrounds for my group.

Frankfurt is the only real competition to London and that is similarly hampered by an over regulated Labour market and relatively high taxes. A mate of mine who works for a large US headquartered bank told me over a beer just a couple of days ago that his European CEO (a London based American) had said very clearly that there was 'no way on God's earth' they were headed for Frankfurt. Paris and Milan were not even on his radar screen.

TheBigBean

As France rolls out a French red carpet for finance folk, I do wonder why everyone is fighting over this specific sector. Germany could try to tempt the fashion industry, France could charm the pharmaceuticals and Italy could go for the car manufacturing. But no, they all want finance - an industry dominated throughout the world by English speaking people and English common law.

My guess is that they see a large industry and think it is easy.

surrey_commuter

Rick Chasey wrote:

It's the pound index which tracks the pound versus a basket of other currencies.

Shows pound's value falling off a cliff on Brexit and not recovering (described as "big enough to base jump off by a mate).

The most worrying thing about that is the continued fall after the dead cat bounce

surrey_commuter

Lookyhere wrote:

You ve got to wonder how bad things will have to get before those who voted for BREXIT will say "sorry we got it wrong"

LOL - time to wheel out the international Jewish conspiracy theory which for some strange reason will include the UN

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean wrote:

As France rolls out a French red carpet for finance folk, I do wonder why everyone is fighting over this specific sector. Germany could try to tempt the fashion industry, France could charm the pharmaceuticals and Italy could go for the car manufacturing. But no, they all want finance - an industry dominated throughout the world by English speaking people and English common law.

My guess is that they see a large industry and think it is easy.

I think they see a massive highly mobile industry and think they only need peel a small % off to make a difference to their economy.

Stevo_666

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

It's the pound index which tracks the pound versus a basket of other currencies.

Shows pound's value falling off a cliff on Brexit and not recovering (described as "big enough to base jump off by a mate).

The most worrying thing about that is the continued fall after the dead cat bounce

Ironically it is the ability for exchange rates to flex that will help our situation. At least we don't have the Euro as our currency. The southern European countries locked into the Euro are experiencing at first hand just what the downside is of being locked into a currency union with Germany and other Northern European economies.

If the pound was soaring against other currencies there would be many in here moaning about how uncompetitive our exports were becoming....

TheBigBean

Surrey Commuter wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

As France rolls out a French red carpet for finance folk, I do wonder why everyone is fighting over this specific sector. Germany could try to tempt the fashion industry, France could charm the pharmaceuticals and Italy could go for the car manufacturing. But no, they all want finance - an industry dominated throughout the world by English speaking people and English common law.

My guess is that they see a large industry and think it is easy.

I think they see a massive highly mobile industry and think they only need peel a small % off to make a difference to their economy.

Mobile is really not a word I would associate with the finance industry. If it was mobile it would have shipped itself abroad a long time ago.

surrey_commuter

Stevo 666 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

It's the pound index which tracks the pound versus a basket of other currencies.

Shows pound's value falling off a cliff on Brexit and not recovering (described as "big enough to base jump off by a mate).

The most worrying thing about that is the continued fall after the dead cat bounce

Ironically it is the ability for exchange rates to flex that will help our situation. At least we don't have the Euro as our currency. The southern European countries locked into the Euro are experiencing at first hand just what the downside is of being locked into a currency union with Germany and other Northern European economies.

If the pound was soaring against other currencies there would be many in here moaning about how uncompetitive our exports were becoming....

BBC interest rate reporting- rates up is terrible news for borrowers. Rates down is terrible news for savers.

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

TheBigBean wrote:

As France rolls out a French red carpet for finance folk, I do wonder why everyone is fighting over this specific sector. Germany could try to tempt the fashion industry, France could charm the pharmaceuticals and Italy could go for the car manufacturing. But no, they all want finance - an industry dominated throughout the world by English speaking people and English common law.

My guess is that they see a large industry and think it is easy.

I think they see a massive highly mobile industry and think they only need peel a small % off to make a difference to their economy.

Mobile is really not a word I would associate with the finance industry. If it was mobile it would have shipped itself abroad a long time ago.

It is compared to the car industry

TheBigBean

Another thing...

Turkeys voting for Xmas doesn't surprise me. What does surprise me is that their owners have not even considered their living conditions as a cause.

For all the comments I hear about someone's ignorant nanny voting for Brexit and causing financial pain for the employer (Greek holiday costs more, contract cancelled etc.), I'm yet to hear a single person try to address any of the reasons that the nanny might have been a bit miffed with the status quo. I've heard lots of people blamed for the status quo, but no one takes responsibility and no one proposes any changes - especially not ones that would affect themselves.

pblakeney

Stevo 666 wrote:

Frankfurt is the only real competition to London and that is similarly hampered by an over regulated Labour market and relatively high taxes. A mate of mine who works for a large US headquartered bank told me over a beer just a couple of days ago that his European CEO (a London based American) had said very clearly that there was 'no way on God's earth' they were headed for Frankfurt. Paris and Milan were not even on his radar screen.

How about Edinburgh in an independent Scotland within the EU, if that's a possibility?
Could be an easy relocation. May be worth a move whilst possible. Edit - Or Dublin.

surrey_commuter

TheBigBean wrote:

Another thing...

Turkeys voting for Xmas doesn't surprise me. What does surprise me is that their owners have not even considered their living conditions as a cause.

For all the comments I hear about someone's ignorant nanny voting for Brexit and causing financial pain for the employer (Greek holiday costs more, contract cancelled etc.), I'm yet to hear a single person try to address any of the reasons that the nanny might have been a bit miffed with the status quo. I've heard lots of people blamed for the status quo, but no one takes responsibility and no one proposes any changes - especially not ones that would affect themselves.

I don't know the stats so I will ask the question. Are people worse off or is it perception? Ie are they not doing as well as their parents or looking at the rich and feeling, rightly or wrongly that our society has got more unequal.

Whatever the answer to that question (and I agree it has not been asked let alone answered) these people will be hit the hardest by an economic slowdown.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean wrote:

Another thing...

Turkeys voting for Xmas doesn't surprise me. What does surprise me is that their owners have not even considered their living conditions as a cause.

For all the comments I hear about someone's ignorant nanny voting for Brexit and causing financial pain for the employer (Greek holiday costs more, contract cancelled etc.), I'm yet to hear a single person try to address any of the reasons that the nanny might have been a bit miffed with the status quo. I've heard lots of people blamed for the status quo, but no one takes responsibility and no one proposes any changes - especially not ones that would affect themselves.

Sure. But the question wasn't "do you want the status quo?" It was a question about the EU.


Gargh.

gaffer_slow

... and the many of the FSTE 100 "rises" with a drop in currency. giving the appearance of higher/rise in value

Bo Duke

gaffer_slow wrote:

... and the many of the FSTE 100 "rises" with a drop in currency. giving the appearance of higher/rise in value

I thought it was because of population growth?

Bo Duke

Surrey Commuter wrote:

gaffer_slow wrote:

how anyone in the thread can, with a straight face,
say that the Euro is "Monopoly Money" when the Pound is less than $1.30 is staggering.

and you are fine with him asserting that our problems will go away with political stability?

SC...... play to the audience son... they all love you singing from their hymn sheet.

Over and out.

surrey_commuter

Bo Duke wrote:

gaffer_slow wrote:

... and the many of the FSTE 100 "rises" with a drop in currency. giving the appearance of higher/rise in value

I thought it was because of population growth?

Why don't you explain why you are so adamant that economic migration is not good for economic growth

surrey_commuter

Bo Duke wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

gaffer_slow wrote:

how anyone in the thread can, with a straight face,
say that the Euro is "Monopoly Money" when the Pound is less than $1.30 is staggering.

and you are fine with him asserting that our problems will go away with political stability?

SC...... play to the audience son... they all love you singing from their hymn sheet.

Over and out.

I have no idea what that means

finchy

Lookyhere wrote:

You ve got to wonder how bad things will have to get before those who voted for BREXIT will say "sorry we got it wrong"

Not the most highly scientific method ever, but I've been scanning the comments under Daily Heil articles about Brexit, and the best rated ones under quite a few articles are now anti-leave posts. Although that might be because they're in the Money section rather than on the main news page.

pblakeney

Rick Chasey wrote:

Sure. But the question wasn't "do you want the status quo?" It was a question about the EU
Gargh.

Some people thought is was.

Rick Chasey wrote:

Eugh. For the last time. It's a choice for 'status quo' or 'something different'...