BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

gaffer_slow

what's horrendous is the current Brexit policy positioning is being presented to us (and the EU) by people who are trying to appeal to a very narrow segment of the population, the ~120,000 Tory party members. They have no interest in an honest, accurate discussion or public discourse (so not much change from the last few months then) - or in any productive / useful development of a pre-exit relationship with the EU.


... and Surrey Commuter (whilst it may be wishful thinking / coping mechanism) I am not saying they will do an "abrupt turnabout" I am saying it will be a gradually controlled narrative. At some point they will have to show their cards, and those will be shown by a Brexiter (Leadsum cheerled by Boris) in a "We deeply regret this, we tried to make this work" kind of way. And they wont show their cards until after the Leave vote has been significantly softened up over time. Then the rotting corpse of Nigel can rise again.

Stevo_666

briantrumpet wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Pound just fell below $1.30


The world's money telling the UK it's worth a lot less after Brexit.

And yet Sterling is still close to its 10 year average against the Euro - what does that tell you?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=10Y

That we've also managed to drag the euro rate down against the dollar?

Perhaps that there are fundamental concerns about the Eurozone economies and that the EU is at risk from further countries pressing to leave? The UK vote may have brought the latter up the agenda but it was clear that this situation already existed.

briantrumpet

Stevo 666 wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Pound just fell below $1.30


The world's money telling the UK it's worth a lot less after Brexit.

And yet Sterling is still close to its 10 year average against the Euro - what does that tell you?

http://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=GBP&to=EUR&view=10Y

That we've also managed to drag the euro rate down against the dollar?

Perhaps that there are fundamental concerns about the Eurozone economies and that the EU is at risk from further countries pressing to leave? The UK vote may have brought the latter up the agenda but it was clear that this situation already existed.

Maybe, but it doesn't give the same rosy glow that saying that Sterling being "close to its 10 year average against the Euro" suggests.

Bo Duke

There's always flight to the dollar, it's a standard reaction. Commodity slump - into the dollar. Stock market crash - into the dollar. Political chaos - into the dollar.

The Euro in comparison is monopoly money and clearly is going to have a very tough next few years convincing anyone it's a credible currency, hence the 2 have fallen in tandem.

So what exactly was the point being made? This is not news, markets act like this on a daily basis, it's normal trading patterns. Only when/if we see some stabilisation of the political turmoil in the UK etc.. will the GBP start to recover.

Until then blah blah blah... doom and gloom. Corporal Fraser would love it.

RideOnTime

Hungarian forint coins (Hungarian: forint érmék) are part of the physical form of current Hungarian currency, the Hungarian forint. Modern forint coins (this name is used to distinguish them from pre-20th century forint coinage) have been struck since 1946 and reflect the changes of post-WWII Hungarian history.

going up

surrey_commuter

gaffer_slow wrote:

what's horrendous is the current Brexit policy positioning is being presented to us (and the EU) by people who are trying to appeal to a very narrow segment of the population, the ~120,000 Tory party members. They have no interest in an honest, accurate discussion or public discourse (so not much change from the last few months then) - or in any productive / useful development of a pre-exit relationship with the EU.


... and Surrey Commuter (whilst it may be wishful thinking / coping mechanism) I am not saying they will do an "abrupt turnabout" I am saying it will be a gradually controlled narrative. At some point they will have to show their cards, and those will be shown by a Brexiter (Leadsum cheerled by Boris) in a "We deeply regret this, we tried to make this work" kind of way. And they wont show their cards until after the Leave vote has been significantly softened up over time. Then the rotting corpse of Nigel can rise again.

Your only hope is Theresa May and she is not exactly some wooly do-gooder

gove is out means out

Leadson. Has attracted the backing of Leave.eu depending on your mood their website is either hilarious or scary.

rick_chasey

Bo Duke wrote:

There's always flight to the dollar, it's a standard reaction. Commodity slump - into the dollar. Stock market crash - into the dollar. Political chaos - into the dollar.

The Euro in comparison is monopoly money and clearly is going to have a very tough next few years convincing anyone it's a credible currency, hence the 2 have fallen in tandem.

So what exactly was the point being made? This is not news, markets act like this on a daily basis, it's normal trading patterns. Only when/if we see some stabilisation of the political turmoil in the UK etc.. will the GBP start to recover.

Until then blah blah blah... doom and gloom. Corporal Fraser would love it.

31 year low against the dollar is pretty bad.

That's not normal behaviour.

The last time the £ was this low I didn't exist.

It's falling by whole percentage points which also isn't normal.

The volatility isn't normal either.

rick_chasey

And this.

bendertherobot

But it will be fine if we're all positive Rick. That's the issue right now, you and I looking on in sadness and worry at it, cheer up and smile and it will all correct itself by tomorrow. Just you see!

morstar

Rick Chasey wrote:

Bo Duke wrote:

There's always flight to the dollar, it's a standard reaction. Commodity slump - into the dollar. Stock market crash - into the dollar. Political chaos - into the dollar.

The Euro in comparison is monopoly money and clearly is going to have a very tough next few years convincing anyone it's a credible currency, hence the 2 have fallen in tandem.

So what exactly was the point being made? This is not news, markets act like this on a daily basis, it's normal trading patterns. Only when/if we see some stabilisation of the political turmoil in the UK etc.. will the GBP start to recover.

Until then blah blah blah... doom and gloom. Corporal Fraser would love it.

31 year low against the dollar is pretty bad.

That's not normal behaviour.

The last time the £ was this low I didn't exist.

It's falling by whole percentage points which also isn't normal.

The volatility isn't normal either.

It's just a continuation of the leave delusions. Just dismiss it all as short term uncertainty. Admittedly, there is an element of short term instability but this sits on top of a very real erosion of the underlying UK economy. We have just become a less attractive place to do business in a global economy.
Our order intake at work remains over 30% down since 24th June. That is very real. If it carries on for a couple more weeks, cost cutting will commence in earnest. Our business is promotional gifts which is dependent on discretionary spend. It's an extremely reliable barometer for real business confidence, unlike the exaggerated swings of the markets.

surrey_commuter

bendertherobot wrote:

But it will be fine if we're all positive Rick. That's the issue right now, you and I looking on in sadness and worry at it, cheer up and smile and it will all correct itself by tomorrow. Just you see!

Come on Rick!!! pull yourself together or you will miss the bountiful opportunities.

briantrumpet

"Goldman says sterling target in 3 months now $1.20, cut from its post-Brexit forecast of $1.32".

Starting to get closer to George Soros's prediction of £1.10. "Bountiful opportunites" is starting to sound like the chance to run in races for people with one leg, having chopped your own leg off with a chainsaw.

cycleclinic

Leadson is on happy pills I think. that is the only way you can look at an "abyss" and smile and jump. If she ends up being PM I am I will have to start seriously looking at where I want my business to be located as it further proof no matter how I and people like me vote we actually have no say or control. I am not a lemming and right now it feels like we are all being herded towards the cliff.

rolf_f

thecycleclinic wrote:

. I am not a lemming and right now it feels like we are all being herded towards the cliff.

Yes, but it's our cliff. Rule Britannia, Britannia rules the waves (etc etc).

bendertherobot

The good news, I suppose, is that Oliver Letwin is now producing a "multi dimensional" cabinet paper dealing with the routes to exit. It's conceivable that one of those dimensions will be not to, which is of course Parliament's Sovereign right to take. The good/bad news is that it will take a bloody age to produce during which our economy is subject to speculation.

coopster_the_1st

briantrumpet wrote:

"Goldman says sterling target in 3 months now $1.20, cut from its post-Brexit forecast of $1.32".

Starting to get closer to George Soros's prediction of £1.10. "Bountiful opportunites" is starting to sound like the chance to run in races for people with one leg, having chopped your own leg off with a chainsaw.

And if Goldman's predictions are anything like their oil price predictions you know you should be doing the opposite right now

surrey_commuter

bendertherobot wrote:

The good news, I suppose, is that Oliver Letwin is now producing a "multi dimensional" cabinet paper dealing with the routes to exit. It's conceivable that one of those dimensions will be not to, which is of course Parliament's Sovereign right to take. The good/bad news is that it will take a bloody age to produce during which our economy is subject to speculation.

he should go down the pub until we have a new PM - they can tell him freedom of movement yes or no. then he will know Norway or WTO and can then plan our negotiating strategy to ease our passage

ugo.santalucia

thecycleclinic wrote:

I am not a lemming and right now it feels like we are all being herded towards the cliff.

I'd happily throw a few people down the cliff, I tell you that...

kingstongraham

Surrey Commuter wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

The good news, I suppose, is that Oliver Letwin is now producing a "multi dimensional" cabinet paper dealing with the routes to exit. It's conceivable that one of those dimensions will be not to, which is of course Parliament's Sovereign right to take. The good/bad news is that it will take a bloody age to produce during which our economy is subject to speculation.

he should go down the pub until we have a new PM - they can tell him freedom of movement yes or no. then he will know Norway or WTO and can then plan our negotiating strategy to ease our passage

So this gets decided by 150,000 Conservative party members. Glad we've got control of our own laws back in such a democratic framework.

surrey_commuter

KingstonGraham wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

The good news, I suppose, is that Oliver Letwin is now producing a "multi dimensional" cabinet paper dealing with the routes to exit. It's conceivable that one of those dimensions will be not to, which is of course Parliament's Sovereign right to take. The good/bad news is that it will take a bloody age to produce during which our economy is subject to speculation.

he should go down the pub until we have a new PM - they can tell him freedom of movement yes or no. then he will know Norway or WTO and can then plan our negotiating strategy to ease our passage

So this gets decided by 150,000 Conservative party members. Glad we've got control of our own laws back in such a democratic framework.

By definition you would need to be a swivel eyed loon to join your local association so that you could attend social gatherings with other swivel eyed loons. The fellas all look act and sound like Gove but does that make them more likely to vote for him or do they dream of May being strict to them?

gaffer_slow

how anyone in the thread can, with a straight face,
say that the Euro is "Monopoly Money" when the Pound is less than $1.30 is staggering.

haydenm

gaffer_slow wrote:

how anyone in the thread can, with a straight face,
say that the Euro is "Monopoly Money" when the Pound is less than $1.30 is staggering.

He was comparing the Euro to the Dollar though

ugo.santalucia

HaydenM wrote:

gaffer_slow wrote:

how anyone in the thread can, with a straight face,
say that the Euro is "Monopoly Money" when the Pound is less than $1.30 is staggering.

He was comparing the Euro to the Dollar though

In which case the pound is not even good enough to play Monopoly?

bendertherobot

We need to renegotiate a new relationship with the EU, based on free trade and friendly cooperation (Gove, twitter)

A few things but let's start with renegotiate?

surrey_commuter

gaffer_slow wrote:

how anyone in the thread can, with a straight face,
say that the Euro is "Monopoly Money" when the Pound is less than $1.30 is staggering.

and you are fine with him asserting that our problems will go away with political stability?

Stevo_666

bendertherobot wrote:

But it will be fine if we're all positive Rick. That's the issue right now, you and I looking on in sadness and worry at it, cheer up and smile and it will all correct itself by tomorrow. Just you see!

It's a free country and people are free to think and act positively or negatively. I don't mind if people want to think and act like losers, it just means less competition for the winners

I had a call yesterday with the CFO of our UK manufacturing and was discussing the possible impact of export tariffs on some of the goods that he sells into Europe if we have a hard BREXIT - potentially around 6%-7%. We talked about whether there was any merit in moving production to France where we also have a factory and whether it was worth the high taxes, restrictive labour laws, tendency to strike at the drop of a hat in that country, in order to avoid import tariffs which are far from certain to be imposed. We both laughed and moved onto the next agenda item of how to minimise the costs and maximise the export opportunities and managed to pull together an outline plan.

haydenm

ugo.santalucia wrote:

HaydenM wrote:

gaffer_slow wrote:

how anyone in the thread can, with a straight face,
say that the Euro is "Monopoly Money" when the Pound is less than $1.30 is staggering.

He was comparing the Euro to the Dollar though

In which case the pound is not even good enough to play Monopoly?

Nope. But I think he was making a wider point about investors not trusting the Euro for fundemental reasons. I guess there is a chance that the Euro could crash out of existence where as the pound will just bumble along at the bottom?

veronese68

bendertherobot wrote:

We need to renegotiate a new relationship with the EU, based on free trade and friendly cooperation (Gove, twitter)

A few things but let's start with renegotiate?

I did like some of the comments that followed that. What a tool!

bendertherobot

I wonder if it's sacrificial. The last of the brexiters to go. Leadsom will follow once she publishes her tax returns. May, the remainer left in charge, economy tanking, multi dimensional paper from Letwin identifies no savings, net loss, free movement. Option in Cabinet paper to remain.....

ugo.santalucia

Stevo 666 wrote:

I had a call yesterday with the CFO of our UK manufacturing and was discussing the possible impact of export tariffs on some of the goods that he sells into Europe if we have a hard BREXIT - potentially around 6%-7%. We talked about whether there was any merit in moving production to France where we also have a factory and whether it was worth the high taxes, restrictive labour laws, tendency to strike at the drop of a hat in that country, in order to avoid import tariffs which are far from certain to be imposed. We both laughed and moved onto the next agenda item of how to minimise the costs and maximise the export opportunities and managed to pull together an outline plan.

Italy and France are acting aggressively imposing new job acts, which aim to "deregulate" the job market. It is inevitable that conditions will change and they will become more business friendly and less dictated by unions. Italian newspapers are reporting on Renzi's policy to make Milan into a big financial centre, taking advantage of Brexit... in a less regulated jobs market that could happen