BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    Would Vine have to quit her job if Gove wins? Every cloud and all that!
  • joelsim
    joelsim Posts: 7,552
    A great day for Great Britain.

    Nobody anywhere near political power (yes, Nigel Fucktardage isn't near) has any intention of pressing the A50 button anytime soon.
  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    Thought I'd post this article from Scientific American, seeing as there's been quite a lot of talk about the role of experts on these pages, it's quite relevant.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    finchy wrote:
    Thought I'd post this article from Scientific American, seeing as there's been quite a lot of talk about the role of experts on these pages, it's quite relevant.

    Good article - I always thought their campaign had some serious players in the background.
    Politics is fascinating - trump uses the language of an eight year old boy, not because he is stupid, but because that is the best way of communicating with his target voters. It is why Bush used to talk about good guys and bad guys.
  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    Just been speaking to a Czech nurse friend of mine. She says that 4 of the nurses on her ward have already quit and are leaving Britain, due to the increasingly xenophobic feel of the country following the referendum campaign and result. That's 4 nurses on 1 ward in 1 hospital. I wonder what the numbers will be like across the country?
  • ugo.santalucia
    ugo.santalucia Posts: 28,312
    finchy wrote:
    Just been speaking to a Czech nurse friend of mine. She says that 4 of the nurses on her ward have already quit and are leaving Britain, due to the increasingly xenophobic feel of the country following the referendum campaign and result. That's 4 nurses on 1 ward in 1 hospital. I wonder what the numbers will be like across the country?

    Wow, that's hasty... it's good news, it's great news... what the country needs in an exodus, to realise how much it depends on Europe... there's no better way of learning than by your own mistakes... when the granny will have to wait 3 days to get the NHS treatment she used to get in 3 hours, instead of the 3 minutes promised by UKIP, that's when the granny will realise that maybe, jut maybe she got conned...
    left the forum March 2023
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    finchy wrote:
    Just been speaking to a Czech nurse friend of mine. She says that 4 of the nurses on her ward have already quit and are leaving Britain, due to the increasingly xenophobic feel of the country following the referendum campaign and result. That's 4 nurses on 1 ward in 1 hospital. I wonder what the numbers will be like across the country?

    Wow, that's hasty... it's good news, it's great news... what the country needs in an exodus, to realise how much it depends on Europe... there's no better way of learning than by your own mistakes... when the granny will have to wait 3 days to get the NHS treatment she used to get in 3 hours, instead of the 3 minutes promised by UKIP, that's when the granny will realise that maybe, jut maybe she got conned...

    not heard of anybody quitting but certainly a feeling of not wanting to be here anymore.

    i can see we are all going to become experts in the "natural rate of unemployment"
  • veronese68
    veronese68 Posts: 27,817
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    finchy wrote:
    Just been speaking to a Czech nurse friend of mine. She says that 4 of the nurses on her ward have already quit and are leaving Britain, due to the increasingly xenophobic feel of the country following the referendum campaign and result. That's 4 nurses on 1 ward in 1 hospital. I wonder what the numbers will be like across the country?

    Wow, that's hasty... it's good news, it's great news... what the country needs in an exodus, to realise how much it depends on Europe... there's no better way of learning than by your own mistakes... when the granny will have to wait 3 days to get the NHS treatment she used to get in 3 hours, instead of the 3 minutes promised by UKIP, that's when the granny will realise that maybe, jut maybe she got conned...
    That will never happen. In the face of overwhelming evidence they will still blame the immigrants for taking their place in the queue. The ignorant will still be ignorant because they don't want to hear anything that is contrary to their limited perspective.
    Kinesis Pro6
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  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    finchy wrote:
    Just been speaking to a Czech nurse friend of mine. She says that 4 of the nurses on her ward have already quit and are leaving Britain, due to the increasingly xenophobic feel of the country following the referendum campaign and result. That's 4 nurses on 1 ward in 1 hospital. I wonder what the numbers will be like across the country?

    Wow, that's hasty... it's good news, it's great news... what the country needs in an exodus, to realise how much it depends on Europe... there's no better way of learning than by your own mistakes... when the granny will have to wait 3 days to get the NHS treatment she used to get in 3 hours, instead of the 3 minutes promised by UKIP, that's when the granny will realise that maybe, jut maybe she got conned...

    not heard of anybody quitting but certainly a feeling of not wanting to be here anymore.

    i can see we are all going to become experts in the "natural rate of unemployment"

    Ive witnessed 2 big exec hires that were done for a big UK Plc company - contracts signed. Both candidates were from Benelux. Both candidates pulled out after Brexit.

    Firm has now commissioned a firm a friend works at to examine if the the cost of losing out on the highest quality labour is higher than the relocation cost.
    _
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,435
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    finchy wrote:
    Just been speaking to a Czech nurse friend of mine. She says that 4 of the nurses on her ward have already quit and are leaving Britain, due to the increasingly xenophobic feel of the country following the referendum campaign and result. That's 4 nurses on 1 ward in 1 hospital. I wonder what the numbers will be like across the country?

    Wow, that's hasty... it's good news, it's great news... what the country needs in an exodus, to realise how much it depends on Europe... there's no better way of learning than by your own mistakes... when the granny will have to wait 3 days to get the NHS treatment she used to get in 3 hours, instead of the 3 minutes promised by UKIP, that's when the granny will realise that maybe, jut maybe she got conned...

    not heard of anybody quitting but certainly a feeling of not wanting to be here anymore.

    i can see we are all going to become experts in the "natural rate of unemployment"

    Ive witnessed 2 big exec hires that were done for a big UK Plc company - contracts signed. Both candidates were from Benelux. Both candidates pulled out after Brexit.

    Firm has now commissioned a firm a friend works at to examine if the the cost of losing out on the highest quality labour is higher than the relocation cost.

    Presumably it's a bit early to say - if these guys are really that talented then you would hope that the future UK immigration system would allow them in.
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,435
    https://next.ft.com/content/a6e37133-9c ... bc2d06d068

    FT article on how Brexit might not happen:

    1. A50 decoupled from ref result after Cameron deferred it to successors, as has occurred
    2. If it is decided a new law/parliamentary vote is required pre-A50
    3. "proposal of preconditions before further action" - if the govt says that conditions must be right for A50 (similar to Brown's 5 tests to join the euro)
    FT wrote:
    None of this is to say Brexit is impossible – any pundit who claims an event will not happen will usually be wrong – but it certainly becomes less likely as time passes. And unless Leave create another moment of opportunity – another wrong-footing of the established order – so as to force through the required Article 50 notification, then it may not happen at all.

    It might even hinge on whether May or Leadsom/Gove gets in (and let's not forget Leadsom was pro-EU until not long before the campaign).
  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    finchy wrote:
    Just been speaking to a Czech nurse friend of mine. She says that 4 of the nurses on her ward have already quit and are leaving Britain, due to the increasingly xenophobic feel of the country following the referendum campaign and result. That's 4 nurses on 1 ward in 1 hospital. I wonder what the numbers will be like across the country?

    Wow, that's hasty... it's good news, it's great news... what the country needs in an exodus, to realise how much it depends on Europe... there's no better way of learning than by your own mistakes... when the granny will have to wait 3 days to get the NHS treatment she used to get in 3 hours, instead of the 3 minutes promised by UKIP, that's when the granny will realise that maybe, jut maybe she got conned...

    not heard of anybody quitting but certainly a feeling of not wanting to be here anymore.

    i can see we are all going to become experts in the "natural rate of unemployment"

    Ive witnessed 2 big exec hires that were done for a big UK Plc company - contracts signed. Both candidates were from Benelux. Both candidates pulled out after Brexit.

    Firm has now commissioned a firm a friend works at to examine if the the cost of losing out on the highest quality labour is higher than the relocation cost.

    Presumably it's a bit early to say - if these guys are really that talented then you would hope that the future UK immigration system would allow them in.

    And why would they move here, with a weaker pound, increasing xenophobia and many companies not knowing what the future holds?
  • bobmcstuff
    bobmcstuff Posts: 11,435
    finchy wrote:
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    ugo.santalucia wrote:
    finchy wrote:
    Just been speaking to a Czech nurse friend of mine. She says that 4 of the nurses on her ward have already quit and are leaving Britain, due to the increasingly xenophobic feel of the country following the referendum campaign and result. That's 4 nurses on 1 ward in 1 hospital. I wonder what the numbers will be like across the country?

    Wow, that's hasty... it's good news, it's great news... what the country needs in an exodus, to realise how much it depends on Europe... there's no better way of learning than by your own mistakes... when the granny will have to wait 3 days to get the NHS treatment she used to get in 3 hours, instead of the 3 minutes promised by UKIP, that's when the granny will realise that maybe, jut maybe she got conned...

    not heard of anybody quitting but certainly a feeling of not wanting to be here anymore.

    i can see we are all going to become experts in the "natural rate of unemployment"

    Ive witnessed 2 big exec hires that were done for a big UK Plc company - contracts signed. Both candidates were from Benelux. Both candidates pulled out after Brexit.

    Firm has now commissioned a firm a friend works at to examine if the the cost of losing out on the highest quality labour is higher than the relocation cost.

    Presumably it's a bit early to say - if these guys are really that talented then you would hope that the future UK immigration system would allow them in.

    And why would they move here, with a weaker pound, increasing xenophobia and many companies not knowing what the future holds?

    Some of those issues might clear up in the next 2-odd years, but after that the future should be a little clearer, and who knows what will happen to the Euro in that time.

    Personally I hope that we can overcome the xenophobia issue. Certainly if as I assume these guys are located in London then it wouldn't be such a big issue regardless.

    But I am inclined to agree with you, I'm just looking for the positives.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Stuff like that is happening a lot.

    A lot of stuff is on pause. For business, a pause is just as bad as not at all.

    It's ugly out there.
    _
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,329
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    Some of those issues might clear up in the next 2-odd years, but after that the future should be a little clearer, and who knows what will happen to the Euro in that time.

    Personally I hope that we can overcome the xenophobia issue. Certainly if as I assume these guys are located in London then it wouldn't be such a big issue regardless.

    But I am inclined to agree with you, I'm just looking for the positives.
    Meanwhile they will simply get on with their lives, without the hassle.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    bobmcstuff wrote:
    Personally I hope that we can overcome the xenophobia issue.

    I would hope so too, but I don't know if that will happen. What will the reaction be when the government goes to the EU, pretends to negotiate for controlled immigration (knowing there isn't a chance in hell of the EU agreeing) and the EU tells the UK in no uncertain terms that access to the free market depends on free movement of EU citizens? There'll be one hell of an anti-immigrant backlash then. :(
  • Bo Duke
    Bo Duke Posts: 1,058
    That, in a nutshell, is going to be the skill needed by the negotiators to know when to compromise and when to stand strong - on both sides. I'd pay a pound to be a fly on the wall... 'if you give a bit there, we can compromise over here..' etc..
    'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP
  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    Bo Duke wrote:
    That, in a nutshell, is going to be the skill needed by the negotiators to know when to compromise and when to stand strong - on both sides. I'd pay a pound to be a fly on the wall... 'if you give a bit there, we can compromise over here..' etc..

    But we're not going to be negotiating with one country - we have to have something in place that will be acceptable to all 27. And as I have said several times, there is no way that the Eastern European member states are going to allow richer countries to cream off their most highly-skilled workers. They cannot and will not compromise at all on this. Allowing the UK (and by extension any other wealthy state which decides to leave the EU) to pick and choose which workers it allows in would be an absolute disaster for their countries, they suffer badly due to a brain drain even under current conditions, why would they want to exacerbate the situation?
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    finchy wrote:
    Allowing the UK (and by extension any other wealthy state which decides to leave the EU) to pick and choose which workers it allows in would be an absolute disaster for their countries, they suffer badly due to a brain drain even under current conditions, why would they want to exacerbate the situation?

    In return for being able to restrict the movement of refugees around the EU. Some Eastern memebers are still angry about Germany forcing the EU into allowing the huge influx of Syrian refugees last year. They would favour a settlement that reduces the movement of people under the Schengen agreement.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    mrfpb wrote:
    finchy wrote:
    Allowing the UK (and by extension any other wealthy state which decides to leave the EU) to pick and choose which workers it allows in would be an absolute disaster for their countries, they suffer badly due to a brain drain even under current conditions, why would they want to exacerbate the situation?

    In return for being able to restrict the movement of refugees around the EU. Some Eastern memebers are still angry about Germany forcing the EU into allowing the huge influx of Syrian refugees last year. They would favour a settlement that reduces the movement of people under the Schengen agreement.

    Two completely different issues. The EU will never compromise on freedom of movement. I think we should have a new referendum asking people whether they want to accept free movement and have all the benefits of a Norway style agreement or not and have standard WTO agreement. It will of course turn into a gunfight about migrants but at least people will have some idea what they are voting for.
  • finchy
    finchy Posts: 6,686
    mrfpb wrote:
    finchy wrote:
    Allowing the UK (and by extension any other wealthy state which decides to leave the EU) to pick and choose which workers it allows in would be an absolute disaster for their countries, they suffer badly due to a brain drain even under current conditions, why would they want to exacerbate the situation?

    In return for being able to restrict the movement of refugees around the EU. Some Eastern memebers are still angry about Germany forcing the EU into allowing the huge influx of Syrian refugees last year. They would favour a settlement that reduces the movement of people under the Schengen agreement.

    That's not going to happen. They aren't so mad about the refugee situation that they're going to risk reducing the proportion of highly-skilled workers in their economy even further just so they can avoid housing a few thousand refugees.
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    The EU will never compromise on freedom of movement.

    They never have. It doesn't mean they never will.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    mrfpb wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    The EU will never compromise on freedom of movement.

    They never have. It doesn't mean they never will.

    You are clutching at straws - it is an intrinsic part of the EU it will never happen. We need to accept that and get real in our expectations for these negotiations or we will waste a lot of time and effort.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Stuff like that is happening a lot.

    A lot of stuff is on pause. For business, a pause is just as bad as not at all.

    It's ugly out there.

    London has got very ugly very quickly. People being shouted at in the street for talking foreign or in foreign accent. Bizarrely race is not currently an issue.

    We have fallen back in time 30-40 years :x
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    They have never had a a member state leave before either. It is uncharted waters for the EU. There are no absolutes here.

    We left because freedom of movement was a massive issue for our electorate. It is on the table for negotiation whether the federalists like it or not.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,329
    mrfpb wrote:
    We left because freedom of movement was a massive issue for our electorate. It is on the table for negotiation whether the federalists like it or not.
    They have already stated that it is non-negotiable.
    We have voted to leave. They don't have to appease us. They hold the strongest hand. Like it or not.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 21,916
    mrfpb wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    The EU will never compromise on freedom of movement.

    They never have. It doesn't mean they never will.

    They compromised for Lichtenstein.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Stuff like that is happening a lot.

    A lot of stuff is on pause. For business, a pause is just as bad as not at all.

    It's ugly out there.

    London has got very ugly very quickly. People being shouted at in the street for talking foreign or in foreign accent. Bizarrely race is not currently an issue.

    We have fallen back in time 30-40 years :x

    Terrible. Can't say I've seen any of that my way.
    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    mrfpb wrote:
    They have never had a a member state leave before either. It is uncharted waters for the EU. There are no absolutes here.

    We left because freedom of movement was a massive issue for our electorate. It is on the table for negotiation whether the federalists like it or not.

    I have not seen one serious report which suggests it is up for negotiation. We can put it on the table but it will get swept straight off. It is fanciful thinking and stops us from moving forwards.

    Can you point me in the direction of what it is that makes you think it is negotiable
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:
    Stuff like that is happening a lot.

    A lot of stuff is on pause. For business, a pause is just as bad as not at all.

    It's ugly out there.

    London has got very ugly very quickly. People being shouted at in the street for talking foreign or in foreign accent. Bizarrely race is not currently an issue.

    We have fallen back in time 30-40 years :x

    Terrible. Can't say I've seen any of that my way.

    Not nice for a Lithuamian girl on her own in a taxi from Heathrow to have to listen to a rant about getting rid of all those East European Gypsies.

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