Seemingly trivial things that annoy you

pblakeney

Oh, and as I am mortgage free and a saver higher interest rates do not annoy me in the slightest. Yippee!

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

Raising interest rates will not reduce this iteration of inflation. The price of oil & gas is always an OPEC stitch-up. Ukraine was an excuse. My opinion and that only.

The core inflation figures exclude energy, food, tobacco etc. Energy prices are not particularly high at the moment; it's May.

Plus, OPEC's share of global oil supply is a lot lower than it was in the 70s. They can't swing the prices as much as they used to.

Inflation is a 12 rolling index. Is the effect that the fall in energy prices from May 2022 has a proportionally lower effect on inflation than the same proportional fall would for December? Or is the index not that sophisticated?

Issue I'm hearing is that wages are now fueling core inflation and this is showing up in services (I can confirm our prices have gone up scandalously), which could take a couple more years to unwind, right?

rick_chasey

pblakeney said:

https://www.ftadviser.com/opinion/2023/05/11/what-is-causing-uk-inflation-to-be-so-persistent/?page=5

Forgive me, but the relevant bit here is agreeing with me, right?

The final adjudicator is likely to be a central bank obliged to clobber the economy, forcing workers to accept lower wages in relation to prices and firms to accept lower prices in relation to wages.

rick_chasey

First.Aspect said:

Issue I'm hearing is that wages are now fueling core inflation and this is showing up in services (I can confirm our prices have gone up scandalously), which could take a couple more years to unwind, right?

Yes, which is why the "oh it's Ukraine, it's oil & gas" stuff is not right anymore.

First.Aspect

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

Issue I'm hearing is that wages are now fueling core inflation and this is showing up in services (I can confirm our prices have gone up scandalously), which could take a couple more years to unwind, right?

Yes, which is why the "oh it's Ukraine, it's oil & gas" stuff is not right anymore.

Well it is though, just that the effect on wages has a lag.

pblakeney

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

Issue I'm hearing is that wages are now fueling core inflation and this is showing up in services (I can confirm our prices have gone up scandalously), which could take a couple more years to unwind, right?

Yes, which is why the "oh it's Ukraine, it's oil & gas" stuff is not right anymore.

You don't think the oil & gas industry is a cartel?
You don't think oil & gas prices impact on the supply chain?

pblakeney

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

https://www.ftadviser.com/opinion/2023/05/11/what-is-causing-uk-inflation-to-be-so-persistent/?page=5

Forgive me, but the relevant bit here is agreeing with me, right?

The final adjudicator is likely to be a central bank obliged to clobber the economy, forcing workers to accept lower wages in relation to prices and firms to accept lower prices in relation to wages.

That's because the central bank only has the one tool. It is the wrong tool.

rick_chasey

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

First.Aspect said:

Issue I'm hearing is that wages are now fueling core inflation and this is showing up in services (I can confirm our prices have gone up scandalously), which could take a couple more years to unwind, right?

Yes, which is why the "oh it's Ukraine, it's oil & gas" stuff is not right anymore.

You don't think the oil & gas industry is a cartel?
You don't think oil & gas prices impact on the supply chain?

The concern is the rise in core inflation from 6.2% to 6.8%, right? That specifically excludes energy prices.

No I don't think O&G is that cartel-like anymore, not since US shale came online.

Of course energy prices have an impact; hell, I've even posted charts that illustrate the effect, but that's clearly not what is driving the inflation at the moment.

pblakeney

I disagree. Doesn't matter.

rick_chasey

pblakeney said:

I disagree. Doesn't matter.

It's not the '70s anymore. OPEC only have about 38% of global oil supply...

TheBigBean

It is a pretty big monthly increase, but it looks a big chunk of it relates to the new financial year. Alcohol, tobacco, transport and communications account for half.

pblakeney

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

I disagree. Doesn't matter.

It's not the '70s anymore. OPEC only have about 38% of global oil supply...

OPEC was only given as an easy illustration. It is still a cartel industry.

rick_chasey

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

I disagree. Doesn't matter.

It's not the '70s anymore. OPEC only have about 38% of global oil supply...

OPEC was only given as an easy illustration. It is still a cartel industry.

Might be for another thread but I’d like to know how.

They are price takers

rick_chasey

Back on topic...

The trains I take always fill up at one end - the front for the trip to London and the back on the way back

This worked out well for me as it was easy to get the quieter coaches in the morning and in the evening the quietest carriage opened nearest the Cambridge station exit.

They have now changed where the trains leave and arrive at Cambridge so now the quieter carriages are a proper schlep away from the entrance and exit.

Pross

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

https://www.ftadviser.com/opinion/2023/05/11/what-is-causing-uk-inflation-to-be-so-persistent/?page=5

Forgive me, but the relevant bit here is agreeing with me, right?

The final adjudicator is likely to be a central bank obliged to clobber the economy, forcing workers to accept lower wages in relation to prices and firms to accept lower prices in relation to wages.

So what's your solution? You seem to support the need for pay rises to match inflation when that gets discussed on here and complain about a stagnant economy which is only going to get worse if what little spare cash people have for discretionary spending is continually whittled away by inflation. I also thought you were one on here who argues that above inflation pay rises doesn't make inflation worse (apologies if my memory is playing up on that).

briantrumpet

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

People incredulous that raising rates because of inflation makes people poorer so they have less to spend.

As if that isn’t literally the point.

I still maintain that this inflation is not driven by over spending.
Raising interest rates may give the correct result but it is the wrong tool resulting in other problems. The entire chain of supply has to be looked at, the Ukraine impact for example.

My suspicion is that there's some blatant profiteering going on, not least in energy and food.

Which energy firms and in what way?

And the same for food?

Shell & BP for starters (record profits reported), and I suspect the food sector (manufacturers and retailers) will be making hay too. I think this is where the 'free market' breaks down to a degree, when the big players jointly spot an opportunity for everyone's margins to be increased en masse on the back of various actual and perceived crises or general turbulence. I can't blame them for it, and to give them credit, they are good at rewarding the shareholders, which is their job. But the price is paid elsewhere, by stretching public spending to the hilt and degrading services that benefit everyone.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/02/02/profits-record-32bn-energy-prices-surge/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/07/bp-profits-windfall-tax-gas-prices-ukraine-war

I see I'm wrong on food retailers, at least for Tesco in the past year.

https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/results/tesco-profits-halved-amid-incredibly-tough-year-for-consumers/678205.article

rick_chasey

Pross said:

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

https://www.ftadviser.com/opinion/2023/05/11/what-is-causing-uk-inflation-to-be-so-persistent/?page=5

Forgive me, but the relevant bit here is agreeing with me, right?

The final adjudicator is likely to be a central bank obliged to clobber the economy, forcing workers to accept lower wages in relation to prices and firms to accept lower prices in relation to wages.

So what's your solution? You seem to support the need for pay rises to match inflation when that gets discussed on here and complain about a stagnant economy which is only going to get worse if what little spare cash people have for discretionary spending is continually whittled away by inflation. I also thought you were one on here who argues that above inflation pay rises doesn't make inflation worse (apologies if my memory is playing up on that).

It's more I won't criticise people for wanting to raise their pay to meet inflation; it's entirely rational.

Also, until very recently, the evidence was that it was high corporate profits/prices that were driving inflation, not necessarily wages.

You can't really criticise for people acting rationally in their own interests, right?

I think high inflation is pretty bad, especially this high, and so there are no solutions that don't involve pain.

Inflation itself is painful, and left unchecked it gets even worse. So far we don't really have many macro-economic tools that don't involve hitting people's spending power in some way, and it's quite clearly set out in the list of responsibilities that the BoE is responsible for keeping inflation at the right levels and the only serious tool they have are rates.

Nor is this unique across the world; in fact, it's the only way we really know how to do it. If someone can come up with a novel way to handle inflation (which is already pain) without dampening demand, I'm all ears.

I would argue a less unequal society, or at least one where there is less acceptance of properly poor people, would make things like rates changing less painful all round and it wouldn't be quite them moral dilemma it is; but that's not the BoE's fault.

Jezyboy

I guess so far it, for many people it feels like the harm from high interest rates is well outweighing any dampening impact they are having on inflation.

People who were previously confident they could comfortably absorb interest rate rises didn't necessarily link that what would necessitate the rate rise was huge amounts of inflation...

The other feeling I get is that there's no obvious long term solution. At least with COVID there was the possibility of vaccines, herd immunity and less lethal variants. With the cost of living crisis, you just have to accept being poorer.

TheBigBean

Jezyboy said:

With the cost of living crisis, you just have to accept being poorer.

This doesn't go down well e.g. see the BoE advisor who said it. I have an even simpler take which is that there has to be a cost for the covid period.

morstar

The problem is that some people have no headroom for being poorer.
Food bank use was already becoming increasingly common during the period pre covid.
For most of us here, it seems we’re getting a haircut on disposable income. Annoying but ultimately trivial. If you’re already using foodbanks and everything is only going one way…

rick_chasey

morstar said:

The problem is that some people have no headroom for being poorer.
Food bank use was already becoming increasingly common during the period pre covid.
For most of us here, it seems we’re getting a haircut on disposable income. Annoying but ultimately trivial. If you’re already using foodbanks and everything is only going one way…

That's an argument about the level of acceptable poverty; you still have to sort inflation out, whether people are on the breadline or not.

Jezyboy

TheBigBean said:

Jezyboy said:

With the cost of living crisis, you just have to accept being poorer.

This doesn't go down well e.g. see the BoE advisor who said it. I have an even simpler take which is that there has to be a cost for the covid period.

I'd like to understand what was going through his head when he said it tbh. It's remarkably tone deaf. Surely they should at least give the impression (together with the Govt) of thinking about mitigating the negative impacts of their policies.

TheBigBean

Jezyboy said:

TheBigBean said:

Jezyboy said:

With the cost of living crisis, you just have to accept being poorer.

This doesn't go down well e.g. see the BoE advisor who said it. I have an even simpler take which is that there has to be a cost for the covid period.

I'd like to understand what was going through his head when he said it tbh. It's remarkably tone deaf. Surely they should at least give the impression (together with the Govt) of thinking about mitigating the negative impacts of their policies.

He's not a politician and he simply stated the reality.

rick_chasey

TheBigBean said:

Jezyboy said:

TheBigBean said:

Jezyboy said:

With the cost of living crisis, you just have to accept being poorer.

This doesn't go down well e.g. see the BoE advisor who said it. I have an even simpler take which is that there has to be a cost for the covid period.

I'd like to understand what was going through his head when he said it tbh. It's remarkably tone deaf. Surely they should at least give the impression (together with the Govt) of thinking about mitigating the negative impacts of their policies.

He's not a politician and he is simply stated the reality.

These are some of the reasons why it made sense to take interest rate decisions out of the hands of politicians...

Pross

The BBC making a big deal of the launch of their ‘verify’ service. The day after launching they use it to verify CCTV footage suggesting the two kids who got killed on an e-bike in Cardiff were being chased by police just before hand which had been used as an excuse for rioting. Surely they should have waited for a fuller picture if they want to be giving people accurate information, especially in such a potentially volatile situation? Today more footage shows the van that was following had turned off before the incident as the kids took the bike through bollards onto a path.

surrey_commuter

briantrumpet said:

surrey_commuter said:

briantrumpet said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

People incredulous that raising rates because of inflation makes people poorer so they have less to spend.

As if that isn’t literally the point.

I still maintain that this inflation is not driven by over spending.
Raising interest rates may give the correct result but it is the wrong tool resulting in other problems. The entire chain of supply has to be looked at, the Ukraine impact for example.

My suspicion is that there's some blatant profiteering going on, not least in energy and food.

Which energy firms and in what way?

And the same for food?

Shell & BP for starters (record profits reported), and I suspect the food sector (manufacturers and retailers) will be making hay too. I think this is where the 'free market' breaks down to a degree, when the big players jointly spot an opportunity for everyone's margins to be increased en masse on the back of various actual and perceived crises or general turbulence. I can't blame them for it, and to give them credit, they are good at rewarding the shareholders, which is their job. But the price is paid elsewhere, by stretching public spending to the hilt and degrading services that benefit everyone.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/02/02/profits-record-32bn-energy-prices-surge/

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2023/feb/07/bp-profits-windfall-tax-gas-prices-ukraine-war

I see I'm wrong on food retailers, at least for Tesco in the past year.

https://www.thegrocer.co.uk/results/tesco-profits-halved-amid-incredibly-tough-year-for-consumers/678205.article

So they prospect for O&G and if successful extract it over a period of decades at a fixed cost, for example at a cost of $50 a barrel. As the international price of a barrel goes up or down they make more or less profit or even a loss on every barrel they extract.

They are not profiteering because they sell at the price they are offered. It would be plain weird for them to sell at less than market price.

As for UK food retailers it is one of the most price competitive markets in the world and I would be amazed if they were colluding on prices.

pblakeney

Pross said:

The BBC making a big deal of the launch of their ‘verify’ service. The day after launching they use it to verify CCTV footage suggesting the two kids who got killed on an e-bike in Cardiff were being chased by police just before hand which had been used as an excuse for rioting. Surely they should have waited for a fuller picture if they want to be giving people accurate information, especially in such a potentially volatile situation? Today more footage shows the van that was following had turned off before the incident as the kids took the bike through bollards onto a path.

Vindicates my first thought. A police van following isn't necessarily chasing. That's not to say the kids didn't think they were being chased. Then you question why. Muddy waters.

Jezyboy

pblakeney said:

Pross said:

The BBC making a big deal of the launch of their ‘verify’ service. The day after launching they use it to verify CCTV footage suggesting the two kids who got killed on an e-bike in Cardiff were being chased by police just before hand which had been used as an excuse for rioting. Surely they should have waited for a fuller picture if they want to be giving people accurate information, especially in such a potentially volatile situation? Today more footage shows the van that was following had turned off before the incident as the kids took the bike through bollards onto a path.

Vindicates my first thought. A police van following isn't necessarily chasing. That's not to say the kids didn't think they were being chased. Then you question why. Muddy waters.

Even before any extra footage, there were plenty of people pointing out that a police van with no blues and twos is not going to be actively pursuing another vehicle.

Otoh I guess the footage definitely showed the kids with a police van right behind them, even the most law abiding among us probably feel slightly paranoid when that happens in our cars!

masjer

The BBC wildlife program Spy in the Wild.

If you’ve not seen it, take an animatronics model, stick a camera where an eye would be and place it amongst the wild animals. Then, using a normal film camera for 95% of the footage, document the wild animals looking and prodding the remote controlled puppet.
Add David Tennant’s narration, all cutesy as if talking to 5 year olds.
Pointless.

pblakeney

Pointless, but your description makes me want to watch it! 🤣