Paris - Roubaix *spoiler*

Kléber

I think Iain was teasing there.

But note Sagan was at the head of matters until a mechanical in the Arenberg section. He'll be back.

iainf72

Kléber wrote:

I think Iain was teasing there.

But note Sagan was at the head of matters until a mechanical in the Arenberg section. He'll be back.

Cheers K. I was wondering where he'd got to.

le_patron

The horsepower difference looked so huge, I think it was inevitable that at some point TB would have been a few metres away and left the door open a little. FC rode away from TB the last two weekends, not much to stop him this time either. Seeing Leukemans à bloc trying to hold his wheel was an amazing.

I would like to see the numbers FC was producing in the last 50k, would give more of an insight into how effective any chase could have been.

frenchfighter

Thinbo wrote:

are there any video highlights anywhere on the web? Recorded the race on V+, but it missed off the last 10k! bummer, Must have been beacuse it was running behind schedule.

Key moment:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Me-y04HkmnE
Last 7km:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=En-k1YJjbKg
Sporza shld also have a lot of videos

frenchfighter

In fact here are a lot more:
http://www.cyclingfans.com/node/744

shockedsoshocked

Joining in the thread a bit late, but I was a bit disappointed about the race from pretty much 50k out. Sure Fabu showed great tactical riding and strength, waiting till Boonen was sat at the back eating before making his move (stupid on Boonens part considering they were just creeping into to the distance Fabu attacked from last week). After that no one seemed interested in pressing on the pedals hard enough or working together to catch him. Considering there was a few good gallopers there you'd have though they'd have given it a go. Was just a formality once Fabu went away.

mididoctors

FJS wrote:

Boonen made a mess of it, simple. All the pointing towards others that did not do their work in the chase is irrelevant. There were really only two big contenders, one of them the strongest, the other with the fastest sprint. All Boonen had to do was never, ever lose Cancellara out of sight, or give hime even 5 meters. Dropping to the back of that group to 'have a look at the rest of the competition' and losing Cancellara was a major stupidity.

the counter factual running through my mind the morning after looking at the highlight clips is "what if" Boonen hadn't burst a blood vessel with repeated surges from 70k out and preserved his legs..would he have been able to go with cancellara?

if he had been at the head of the group when chiny went would he have been able to follow... with or without all the previous efforts he had made?

the other issue is two weeks early cancellara had mugged Boonen in the final 2k from a small group at E3 so was sitting on cancellara until the velodrome that appealing an idea in Boonen's mind?

I reckon it was a better stratergy than going head to head with repeated surges 70k to go and smashing your own head in....but the psychology of the previous fortnight was perhaps a factor

Boonen has been in top class form this year..perhaps better than last year but fabian has turned up with a second cardiovascular system and taken it all to a new level

Fabian repeatedly destroyed him (and everyone else)

rick_chasey

mididoctors wrote:

Boonen has been in top class form this year..perhaps better than last year but fabian has turned up with a second cardiovascular system and taken it all to a new level

Fabian repeatedly destroyed him (and everyone else)

Quite.

If you have that kind of form in Roubaix, you make absolutely every tactic apart from your own look stupid.

And let's be honest, if Canc had the form to beat everyone from 50km out, of which many km were in a headwind, to discuss tactics is pretty moot anyway.

FJS

mididoctors wrote:

FJS wrote:

Boonen made a mess of it, simple. All the pointing towards others that did not do their work in the chase is irrelevant. There were really only two big contenders, one of them the strongest, the other with the fastest sprint. All Boonen had to do was never, ever lose Cancellara out of sight, or give hime even 5 meters. Dropping to the back of that group to 'have a look at the rest of the competition' and losing Cancellara was a major stupidity.

the counter factual running through my mind the morning after looking at the highlight clips is "what if" Boonen hadn't burst a blood vessel with repeated surges from 70k out and preserved his legs..would he have been able to go with cancellara?

if he had been at the head of the group when chiny went would he have been able to follow... with or without all the previous efforts he had made?

the other issue is two weeks early cancellara had mugged Boonen in the final 2k from a small group at E3 so was sitting on cancellara until the velodrome that appealing an idea in Boonen's mind?

I reckon it was a better stratergy than going head to head with repeated surges 70k to go and smashing your own head in....but the psychology of the previous fortnight was perhaps a factor

Boonen has been in top class form this year..perhaps better than last year but fabian has turned up with a second cardiovascular system and taken it all to a new level

Fabian repeatedly destroyed him (and everyone else)

I'm pretty sure Boonen would have been able to get to Cancellara's wheel, with 45 km to go, if he wouldn't have been 10 places or so back.
I guess we will never know whether Boonen would have been able to hold Cancellara on the cobbles later on would they have been together in the finale, or in a small group. Cancellara rode away on De Muur, but there's quite a difference between riding away from someone on a 20% climb, or riding away from someone on flat cobbles. Boonen has been massively strong, and looking at both the last couple of weeks the scenario of Boonen being the only one able to hold Cancellara's wheel, and then beating him in a sprint-a-deux was a realistic scenario. Whether he would have able able to, we'll never know.
What's certain is that it would have been much harder for Cancellara to jump away from Boonen on flat tarmac if it would just be them together than in a group. I'm sure Saxobank knew that, and that that is why Cancellara went from so far.

DaveyL

Agree with the above. It seems that people are trying to come up with ways one rider could have beaten a much stronger one, and funnily enough none of them are very convincing.

Still, despite all the terrible performances in the chase group, I reckon I still take the plaudits this weekend, for switching my PTP pick from Chinny to Boonen just before the race started on Sunday morning... :roll:

calvjones

Rick Chasey wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

Boonen has been in top class form this year..perhaps better than last year but fabian has turned up with a second cardiovascular system and taken it all to a new level

Fabian repeatedly destroyed him (and everyone else)

Quite.

If you have that kind of form in Roubaix, you make absolutely every tactic apart from your own look stupid.

And let's be honest, if Canc had the form to beat everyone from 50km out, of which many km were in a headwind, to discuss tactics is pretty moot anyway.

+1

However, it does raise the question as to why nobody apart from Boonen thought 'hey, its a headwind, we can catch him'

I thought the Cyclingnews headline this AM of 'Flecha Secures Sky PR Podium' said it all, as did Hushovd's comments. Or nobody wanted Boonen to have a sniff of winning, even if it meant giving up their own chances.

Wouldn't it be lovely if cycling was like F1 and we could hear race radios?

FJS

Rick Chasey wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

Boonen has been in top class form this year..perhaps better than last year but fabian has turned up with a second cardiovascular system and taken it all to a new level

Fabian repeatedly destroyed him (and everyone else)

Quite.

If you have that kind of form in Roubaix, you make absolutely every tactic apart from your own look stupid.

And let's be honest, if Canc had the form to beat everyone from 50km out, of which many km were in a headwind, to discuss tactics is pretty moot anyway.

On the contrary, I believe Sunday's result was all about tactics. All Cancellara had to do was make it a Time Trial between himself and Boonen (like in Harelbeke). All Boonen had to do was avoid making it a TT between him and Cancellara, not giving him a centimetre, especially in the last 50k. Cancellara picked exactly the right moment to get that one-on-one TT, and I don't for a second believe it was a coincidence he chose to get rid of Boonen on a flat tarmac section rather than on the cobbles.

frenchfighter

Haha, Pippo changed before the podium

Full cross bike

frenchfighter

Stijn 12.44 back...I wonder if he has anything else to concentrate on for the rest of the year.......

Nice 9th for Hinault and Rosseler actually did something in a classic finshing 11th.

rick_chasey

FJS wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

Boonen has been in top class form this year..perhaps better than last year but fabian has turned up with a second cardiovascular system and taken it all to a new level

Fabian repeatedly destroyed him (and everyone else)

Quite.

If you have that kind of form in Roubaix, you make absolutely every tactic apart from your own look stupid.

And let's be honest, if Canc had the form to beat everyone from 50km out, of which many km were in a headwind, to discuss tactics is pretty moot anyway.

On the contrary, I believe Sunday's result was all about tactics. All Cancellara had to do was make it a Time Trial between himself and Boonen (like in Harelbeke). All Boonen had to do was avoid making it a TT between him and Cancellara, not giving him a centimetre, especially in the last 50k. Cancellara picked exactly the right moment to get that one-on-one TT, and I don't for a second believe it was a coincidence he chose to get rid of Boonen on a flat tarmac section rather than on the cobbles.

Do you honestly think that with Cancellara in that form, that anyone other than Cancellara would win?

If it wasn't his 50km out tactic, it would have been another one that worked. He had the legs to make any tactic work.

greeny12

frenchfighter wrote:

Haha, Pippo changed before the podium

Full cross bike

Why was Pozzato on the podium?

rick_chasey

greeny12 wrote:

Why was Pozzato on the podium?

He won the Ballerini prize for the first Italian over the line.

pat1cp

Joining the thread late on too, but, for what it's worth I think Tam just took his eye off the ball for a few minutes and paid the ultimate price. Chinny must have had the knod from the car that Boonen was sat on the back having a butty and a cup of cha.

You can't eat your buttys on the pave but there was quite a long section coming up and Canc went for it and managed to pull out a decent gap causing the group behind to start looking at each other.

One other thing I'd say, the motorbikes seemed very close to him at times and maybe offered some assistance in his solo ride to victory, however I'm quite sure he was the strongest on the day.

eh

People are debating this like there were 2 people in the race, its not completely up to Boonen to chase everything, there are another 190 odd starters. Sure Boonen will probably look back and think maybe he shouldn't have been where he was at the time but thats life, he had to eat somewhere. If you want to win the race you have to do the work and unfortunatly only 2 seemed willing to risk it all, which is a shame really.

Kléber

But if you took Boonen back to Cancellara, you'd risk seeing him riding away or beating you in the sprint. There were two men above the others.

FJS

Rick Chasey wrote:

Do you honestly think that with Cancellara in that form, that anyone other than Cancellara would win?
If it wasn't his 50km out tactic, it would have been another one that worked. He had the legs to make any tactic work.

I honestly believe that with what we have seen on Sunday it is impossible to tell whether or not Boonen would not have had a chance if he had not let Cancellara turn the tactics his way. Would Cancellara have been able to ride away from Boonen on the cobbles like he did with Leukemans? I don't think we know. Would Cancellara have been able to jump away on the tarmac if it would have been just the two of them in the last 20km or so, when there's no surprise element or other riders to complicate things? I don't think we know.

le_patron

FJS wrote:

I honestly believe that with what we have seen on Sunday it is impossible to tell whether or not Boonen would not have had a chance if he had not let Cancellara turn the tactics his way.

On it's own maybe not.

Add what happened at E3 and de Ronde as evidence and things become clearer.

greeny12

Rick Chasey wrote:

greeny12 wrote:

Why was Pozzato on the podium?

He won the Ballerini prize for the first Italian over the line.

Thanks!

mididoctors

FJS wrote:

mididoctors wrote:

FJS wrote:

Boonen made a mess of it, simple. All the pointing towards others that did not do their work in the chase is irrelevant. There were really only two big contenders, one of them the strongest, the other with the fastest sprint. All Boonen had to do was never, ever lose Cancellara out of sight, or give hime even 5 meters. Dropping to the back of that group to 'have a look at the rest of the competition' and losing Cancellara was a major stupidity.

the counter factual running through my mind the morning after looking at the highlight clips is "what if" Boonen hadn't burst a blood vessel with repeated surges from 70k out and preserved his legs..would he have been able to go with cancellara?

if he had been at the head of the group when chiny went would he have been able to follow... with or without all the previous efforts he had made?

the other issue is two weeks early cancellara had mugged Boonen in the final 2k from a small group at E3 so was sitting on cancellara until the velodrome that appealing an idea in Boonen's mind?

I reckon it was a better stratergy than going head to head with repeated surges 70k to go and smashing your own head in....but the psychology of the previous fortnight was perhaps a factor

Boonen has been in top class form this year..perhaps better than last year but fabian has turned up with a second cardiovascular system and taken it all to a new level

Fabian repeatedly destroyed him (and everyone else)

I'm pretty sure Boonen would have been able to get to Cancellara's wheel, with 45 km to go, if he wouldn't have been 10 places or so back.
I guess we will never know whether Boonen would have been able to hold Cancellara on the cobbles later on would they have been together in the finale, or in a small group. Cancellara rode away on De Muur, but there's quite a difference between riding away from someone on a 20% climb, or riding away from someone on flat cobbles. Boonen has been massively strong, and looking at both the last couple of weeks the scenario of Boonen being the only one able to hold Cancellara's wheel, and then beating him in a sprint-a-deux was a realistic scenario. Whether he would have able able to, we'll never know.
What's certain is that it would have been much harder for Cancellara to jump away from Boonen on flat tarmac if it would just be them together than in a group. I'm sure Saxobank knew that, and that that is why Cancellara went from so far.

this was my thinking too but there is a part of me that said when he goes he doesn't look back and if your on his wheel staying there for any length of time is an ask

at flanders Boonen was in better shape than he was when cancellara went at Roubaix.. if boonen legs were not shot I would say he had a chance..the state he was in`i doubt he would have been on the wheel for long.. one reason he slid to the back of line was he looked a little red faced...

but crazy as it sounds I suspect a fresher Boone wouldn't have held the wheel either


we all agree the tactics were wrong and he should have ridden for a group sprint and he was wrong footed at the back when cancellara went etc... we are all on the same page... but barring crashes i don't think there was anything anybody could do about it especially given that the chase was always going to neutralised for 2nd place because EVERYBODY was basing their ride around Boonen and Cancellara and Boonen had to neutralise cancellara to give anybody else a chance

that ride cancellara did was mad strong

...seriousily WTF! I thought the WC TT was super awesome and flanders extra super awesome...

I broke out into laughter inter-spaced with jaw dropping incredulity watching that at the time

"you(not you but one) have too be kidding me"

I think the rest of peloton and especially the hard men n the lead group basically thought the same thing.... why bother pretending you have a chance..$%^£!!!!!!!!!!!!!


he is 29...are we going to have another 3 to 4 years of this sort of thing? he is going to have them all beat on the line if he turns up in shape and states he intends to win...

I didn't think he was going to be stronger at roubaix!

calvjones

Not sure Canc can just turn up and win. If a firing Devolder had been in the group, or a 1yr older Boom, or EBH with Flecha, things might have been different. The joy of bike racing

What's the odds on Lefevre signing Canc if Saxo goes t1ts up I wonder
:?:

eh

he is going to have them all beat on the line if he turns up in shape and states he intends to win...

Not a chance it would have only needed another QS rider there to have tilted things in Boonen's favour. Or failing that a group of riders who aren't so scared of Canc and Boonen and so are prepared to take them on.

But if you took Boonen back to Cancellara, you'd risk seeing him riding away or beating you in the sprint.

True but how does that change things, as it stood you weren't going to win anyway. Pah it seems symptomatic of modern risk adverse sport to favour a 2nd place rather than take a risk but go for the win. It would be interesting to know how much of the tactics yeasterday were DS driven or rider driven.

takethehighroad

Yesterday reminded me of a GT stage where it was more about limting losses than actually trying to win. Boonen's tactics were right, he isolated Cancellara and made him work hard to chase him.

Unfortunately for him, god forbid he has a bit of a rest, relying on other riders to mark the one rider capable fo riding away from them. They all had a better chance if they all were a bit closer to the finish all together, then they had to think less about the possibiltiy of Cancellara going on a 50k flyer which one of them could possibly follow.

However, as Peeters said, you'd think a group of that calibre would be able to pull him back fif they worked together. True, they might still end up second, or worse, but christ, at least they could say they had a go...

greeny12

I tend to agree with TTHR - the 'chase' group was pretty pathetic and it makes you wonder why they put themselves through 200km of hard slog including bone-rattling cobbles only to pretty much sit up when in a decent position to have a crack at winning the thing.

Cancellara's an animal for sure, but they didn't half make it easy for him, no wonder the likes of Boonen and Hoste were so pee'd off!!

Kléber

The group was too large. Even if the riders worked together and caught Cancellara then they knew they'd only tow Boonen and Hushovd to the finish line, they'd still finish second anyway. That's bike racing, it's often about calculating your odds against the others and working out whether co-operation is useful or threatening to your chances.

donrhummy

FJS wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Do you honestly think that with Cancellara in that form, that anyone other than Cancellara would win?
If it wasn't his 50km out tactic, it would have been another one that worked. He had the legs to make any tactic work.

I honestly believe that with what we have seen on Sunday it is impossible to tell whether or not Boonen would not have had a chance if he had not let Cancellara turn the tactics his way. Would Cancellara have been able to ride away from Boonen on the cobbles like he did with Leukemans? I don't think we know. Would Cancellara have been able to jump away on the tarmac if it would have been just the two of them in the last 20km or so, when there's no surprise element or other riders to complicate things? I don't think we know.

Watch Cancellara break away again. Boonen had NOTHING to follow him with. You can see he turns it on a bit more and looks taxed.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Me-y04Hk ... _embedded#