Armstrong vs Contador

Slow1972

I think everyone's getting a bit over excited. Astana must be chuffed to bits.

They have Lance up to 3rd in GC, Conta still has the mountains to take back the time he need but the real losers yesterday were the other GC contenders in the main bunch who missed the gap and who aren't the best climbers i.e Evans and Menchov - hence why Evans was trying to drive things on and Conta / Schleck / Sastre weren't too bothered, but let's face it it was an error on Conta's part.

Armstrong is wily enough to pick up bits of time here and there and if he sees a weakness he's going to exploit it. He's a racer and I wouldnt expect or want anything less. Even if he doesnt have quite enough to win, he'll want to be on the podium in Paris. I wouldnt bet against an Astana 1,2 at this stage.

The only unanswered question is how much Lance's climbing has improved since the Giro, he was riding much better by the end of that than the beginning and no doubt his prep for the Tour since then has been as meticulous as ever. He doesnt need to have found too much more form than he had in the Giro to be someone who's going to be difficult to shake off in the mountains.

Oh I can't wait to be stood be stood on the slopes of Ventoux in few weeks time

SpaceJunk

pb21 wrote:

I’m not sure why so many people think Armstrong is going to lose ‘big chunks’ of time in the mountains. Yeah so he wasn’t climbing with the ‘heads of state’ in the giro for most of the time but that was 8 weeks ago, and that was 8 weeks after he broke his collarbone. In the opening TT Armstrong was clearly uncomfortable riding and I don’t think was a true indicator of his current form.

I think it will be a lot more competitive than some people are making out, especially depending on how many cronies Armstrong can pull together.

Having said that I still reckon Contador is going to win!

Lance COULD lose chunks of time in the mountains. A lot of people are forgetting why Lance was so good in the mountains - he had a fantastic team supporting him; Postal/Disco had one objective, and they were fantastically united in their cause.

In '09 LA might not have that same support from his own team. That could be an issue; as it could be for Bertie.

That all said, I still reckon Astana could be fabricating the whole Bertie / LA rivalry. After tonight's TTT, where Cadel will lose big time, its quite possible that Astana will have the top 4 places in the Overall (excluding of course the Martins. Cancellara, Wiggins etc).

That's LA, AC, Kloden and Levi. Come Friday, if Kloden attacks, will Sastre chase him down? Can he afford to let him go? Same with Levi. What do Saxo Bank do?

Astana's objective - they are a team - is to win the Tour. As a result of stage 3, they've just got themselves a bit more 'insurance'.

Meds1962

No doubt some of the GC 'contenders' are also wondering whether Lance can still climb (and hoping he can't). Should keep things interesting for a while longer and might hopefully bring out some aggression in the likes of Evans and Sastre to liven things up. It won't be dull even if AC and Andy Schleck drop everyone on the climbs.

le_patron

blazin saddles is quite amusing

Pokerface

SpaceJunk wrote:

Lance COULD lose chunks of time in the mountains. A lot of people are forgetting why Lance was so good in the mountains - he had a fantastic team supporting him; Postal/Disco had one objective, and they were fantastically united in their cause.

In '09 LA might not have that same support from his own team. That could be an issue; as it could be for Bertie.

Interesting thought here - if Lance 'supports' Bertie in the mountains, or in fact - if the entire team supports him - and Lance can hang with him all the way up each day - that would give Lance the overall win (assuming he keeps his time lead intact).

He can be seen to be 'supporting' his teammate while winning the race at the same time.

Assuming he can keep up. And I think he will be able to. Many don't....

blazing_saddles

How apt, me next!...well almost. :oops:

I don't see Arcalis causing Armstrong much of a problem, as it isn't the greatest attacking platform for the pure climber.
Plus, Saxo will still have aspirations to keep Cancellara in contention. He could go a long way up this dragging climb. So, Andy Schleck to bide his time, too.
They will be letting the various train take the strain.

Who's going to do much against an Astana/Saxo TGV?

In fact, I think it will turn into one big staring match.

iainf72

New Toto is funny

Contador says "pssst, ask Lance we're he's going to attack me in the TTT" to Frankie A.

donrhummy

knedlicky wrote:

frenchfighter wrote:

The Astana team was fined 65 Euros after failing to sign on within the specified time at the start in Marseille this morning.
The team was reportedly delayed by heavy traffic in the city center,
NOW GET THIS
Apparently the delay wasn't traffic related. The delay is reported to have been caused by Armstrong sharing a cup of coffee with actor Ben Stiller

I don't know of the reason for the Astana delay, but Cadel Evans was caught in traffic and enterprisingly got out of the team car, got his bike down, and rode through the traffic jam and thousands of milling specators to get to the start on time.

Sure, but that means Cadel paid in effort/energy and Astana paid in money. When you're trying to win the TDF which is the smarter choice?

frenchfighter

knedlicky wrote:

frenchfighter wrote:

The Astana team was fined 65 Euros after failing to sign on within the specified time at the start in Marseille this morning.
The team was reportedly delayed by heavy traffic in the city center,
NOW GET THIS
Apparently the delay wasn't traffic related. The delay is reported to have been caused by Armstrong sharing a cup of coffee with actor Ben Stiller

I don't know of the reason for the Astana delay, but Cadel Evans was caught in traffic and enterprisingly got out of the team car, got his bike down, and rode through the traffic jam and thousands of milling specators to get to the start on time.

If this is true then that is quality right there.

frenchfighter

From Lance's twitter in case any of you had doubts:

Btw, sorry we were late for the sign on this am. It was Stiller's fault!!about
21 hours ago from UberTwitter

dennisn

frenchfighter wrote:

From Lance's twitter in case any of you had doubts:

Btw, sorry we were late for the sign on this am. It was Stiller's fault!!about
21 hours ago from UberTwitter

Could that have been a joke that you, obviously, took way to seriously?

Eurostar

Lance said to Ned Boulting on the highlights prog: "Alberto came here to win and quite honestly so did I. " He also said that when it came to winning the GC he would be "close". Ned suggested there would be a scrap among the Astanas. Lance said something to the effect that 'we don't want that - it will be up to Johann to sort that out.'

andy_wrx

I'm not sure I heard him clearly - did he say 'sort that out' or 'sort him out' ? :?

jackhammer111 - banned

http://player.sbs.com.au/tdf#/tdf_08/in ... countback/

lance says i may not be strong enough to win.

richard wants a baum

wow Lance reckons he can win, look out Bertie :roll: , lets see what happens after stage 7. Lets face it he got lucky with a break on a flat stage and snatched some time he still lost time on that TT and while he got better in the Giro he struggled to keep up with Menchov and Sastre and i dont think those guys are on the same level as Contador and A.Schleck.

davecooper

May have been mentioned on this thread already but why are the press trying to stir up tensions within the Astana team by constantly bringing up the subject of a team leader in interviews, especially with LA? This has been happening since stage 1. Since when has the rider highest on GC after a couple of days riding become leader elect?

skavanagh.bikeradar

Dave, it might have something to do with the history - both men have won the race before. It might have something to do with the personalities - Armstrong isn't a shrinking violet looking for a quiet life, ferrying bottles up the line and expending himself in the valleys for someone else's gain, at least not in the Tour he's not. It might have something to do with public pronouncements that have either clouded the issue or contradicted stated team policy by Armstrong. It might be the 40 seconds Armstrong gained in the crosswinds. It might be that Astana have 4 genuine podium riders in Contador, Armstrong, Kloden and Leipheimer. It might be the fuss about who got on the team and who didn't and which of Armstrong or Contador or Astana got their own way. It might be to do with the whole media circus that has followed Armstrong since his comeback started. It is possibly just the prospect of a 7 time winner facing the new star on the same team and the media and public interest that story generates.

It might be a lot of other stuff too. Friday is the first day we get to see a bit more about who has what in the locker, but to be honest the Giro showed Armstrong isn't strong enough as did the opening TT in this Tour. But we will find out for sure over the next 2 weeks and a bit. Unless A Shleck and Sastre can do something special in the mountains Armstrong vs Contador might be the most entertaining thing about the Tour, so I'm now hoping (against all my previous thoughts on the matter) that Armstrong is stronger than he has looked and can give Contador a hard time.

frenchfighter

Happy now?

Quite Frankly

Did you expect Lance to chase down Contador?

I think both men will be happy with their performances today. It only takes one crash/one bad day for Contador and Armstrong is favourite for this tour.

If you'd offered Lance that scenario before the Tour, he'd have snapped your hand off I'm sure.

frenchfighter

Lance is ego is so big that I am pretty sure he would like to have had the jersey tonight. He could see he was desperate for the maglia rosa in the first week of the Giro. He wont be happy with Contador taking it. As for him being 2nd favourite, not in my eyes...

Quite Frankly

Who do you have down as second favourite?

Don't mean to be pedantic but Berti isn't in yellow tonight.

rockmount

frenchfighter wrote:

Happy now?

I think thats Lance, Contador, Johan and me happy, not to mention Brad, what a ride that was !

frenchfighter

I meant taking it out of his grip - Lance had 19 secs on him but now he trails by 3.

As for second I have Andy.

Quite Frankly

frenchfighter wrote:

I meant taking it out of his grip - Lance had 19 secs on him but now he trails by 3.

As for second I have Andy.

2 actually.

Quite Frankly

Schleck of course has a decent chance of beating Armstrong with his superior climbing ability.

But you have to consider that he's already 1.41 behind Armstrong and I think he'll do well to restrict his losses to one minute to Armstrong in the 40km time trial. So that's 2.41 to make up and of course Andy has in the past been prone to having a bad day in the mountains.

frenchfighter

I agree it isn't clear cut yet but we will see what happens when we get to the more difficult mountain stages. I'm sure Lance has improved somewhat since the Giro but I don't think his climbing there was great, and could see Schleck put several minutes into Lance inthe mountains. Andy had one bad day in the Tour last year, mainly because he forgot.didn't eat just like Contador in Paris-Nice. I am sure he has learned his lessons. He is also riding better this year than last.

frenchfighter

And as an example. In the CDL Ventoux stage, Valverde put 2 mins into Evans group. Time gaps in the mountains can get very large and eclipse TT gains if there is consistency.

Mamore

Looks like the men and the boys are being seperated in todays mountain stage in le tour. I see Cavendish is among the boys dropping 83 places in overall standings. I dont think he has the all round ability yet to be a serious tour contender. Maybe now that his wings are clipped he will become a bit more humble and drop the ego!!

ellieb

Duh! Cavendish is a sprinter. There is nobody who thinks he will ever be a GC contender. All he has to do is survive the mountains. Do you actually understand how the Tour works?

afx237vi

Mamore wrote:

Looks like the men and the boys are being seperated in todays mountain stage in le tour. I see Cavendish is among the boys dropping 83 places in overall standings. I dont think he has the all round ability yet to be a serious tour contender. Maybe now that his wings are clipped he will become a bit more humble and drop the ego!!

No offence, but are you watching the Tour for the first time? Cavendish is a sprinter - it's not his job to go well in the mountains, and it's completely irrelevant whether he loses 10, 20, 30 minutes. It doesn't matter.