TDF 2020 - Stage 4: Sisteron - Orcières-Merlette 160,5 km *Spoilers*

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  • DeadCalm
    DeadCalm Posts: 4,100
    RichN95. said:

    DeadCalm said:



    It does seem odd that some of the people (not you phreak) now whinging loudest about Jumbo's pragmatic style of riding in the Dauphine and so far in the Tour have spent the last few years ridiculing the whole concept of panache.


    I'll assume you mean me. I ridicule the idea of panache without winning. Pinot, Bardet and often Contador in his late years. To paraphrase Toy Story it's just failing with style.

    But there's many stages to go yet. Perhaps I'm being prematurely harsh.
    It might have been slightly aimed at you. Possibly. But actually, I don't particularly disagree with this. I can admire panache and if I'm going to lose anyway, I would rather lose with panache. But I'd rather win, of course. Ideally with panache but winning is better than losing.

    Jumbo have found an approach that seemingly gives them a great chance of winning the Tour. They would be mad not to stick with it.

    The reason I have a sense of optimism for this Tour is that the Jumbo approach of taking a few seconds here and there is going to leave a lot of riders within striking distance. If they do that, there is the potential for it to all go terribly wrong, possibly on a single stage.

    Team My Man 2022:

    Antwan Tolhoek, Sam Oomen, Tom Dumoulin, Thymen Arensman, Remco Evenepoel, Benoît Cosnefroy, Tom Pidcock, Mark Cavendish, Romain Bardet
  • m.r.m.
    m.r.m. Posts: 3,342
    Pross said:

    Anyone think Yates may have been bluffing about chasing stages? He had a chance to go for the stage and yellow today but looked more like he wanted to ensure he didn't lose time. He could also have just been unable to make a move of course .

    Maybe it was the initial plan back when Froome and Thomas were still set to ride and Roglic and Bernal didn't have their injuries. Maybe now he sees he has good form and there is an outside shot and he is riding accordingly?!
    PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 2023
  • m.r.m.
    m.r.m. Posts: 3,342
    edited September 2020
    This may very well be a Tour Nibali could have grabbed up the way things are shaking out. Just imagine him attacking on the downhill in stage 1 and gaining 6:30 min. ;)
    PTP Champion 2019, 2022 & 2023
  • Lanterne_Rogue
    Lanterne_Rogue Posts: 4,091
    edited September 2020
    I can't believe I'm old enough to remember paying attention to where Richie Porte finished on a stage, but there you go... Anyway, here's his thoughts - Stage 6 is the first real mtf, according to him.

    Twitter: @canocola @thedreadships
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,553
    david37 said:

    I really enjoyed that, building tension then boom, roglic looked good and deivered, Ineos ttotally lacking at the end.

    How do you work that one out? They still had Kwiatkowski until within the final km and even Castroviejo was there until not far before that. Carapaz had a bit of a bad day but then again Dumoulin only just held on too. The only rider missing was Sivakov who is recovering from the heavy crash he had and should hopefully recover to provide support at the pointy end of the race. Ineos don't look as strong as they did back in the Sky era but people were saying they looked weak last year too.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,157
    edited September 2020
    DeadCalm said:



    Jumbo have found an approach that seemingly gives them a great chance of winning the Tour. They would be mad not to stick with it.

    The reason I have a sense of optimism for this Tour is that the Jumbo approach of taking a few seconds here and there is going to leave a lot of riders within striking distance. If they do that, there is the potential for it to all go terribly wrong, possibly on a single stage.

    I'll never knock someone for a winning strategy, but there's a good chance of this turning out quite dull. I've agreed with you elsewhere about Roglic not getting a big enough lead over enough riders will leave him vulnerable, but he still has the TT to bank on. I don't see any stage Jumbo won't take to a sprint except 15 and 17
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • Matti66
    Matti66 Posts: 190
    So late in the year we could have bad weather. Although all the times Ive been to Landes in October its been awsome weather
  • 50x11
    50x11 Posts: 408
    Bernal didn't look great when trying to jostle for position with slightly bigger stronger riders in the end and slipped away. I imagine the plan will be for him to use longer steeper mountains but we'll have to see.

    Roglic looked so good, the turn Kuss did was impressive but it looked like he expected Roglic to go earlier.

    Be interesting to see what happens now teams know how strong he is and not being hampered with his injuries.
  • jimmyjams
    jimmyjams Posts: 709
    I don't think anything but what happened was to be expected today - so far everyone just wants to gauge how the form of others (or oneself) is, without taking a risk, and without wanting to defend/take the yellow jersey/stage (unless one is French).
    Also relatively-speaking the climb isn't that hard to think a big gamble might come off. As for the pace, despite appearances, I think it only really became hard the last 1.5 km or so, when I believe there was also a headwind, so if a gap opened ….
  • DeadCalm
    DeadCalm Posts: 4,100
    RichN95. said:

    DeadCalm said:



    Jumbo have found an approach that seemingly gives them a great chance of winning the Tour. They would be mad not to stick with it.

    The reason I have a sense of optimism for this Tour is that the Jumbo approach of taking a few seconds here and there is going to leave a lot of riders within striking distance. If they do that, there is the potential for it to all go terribly wrong, possibly on a single stage.

    I'll never knock someone for a winning strategy, but there's a good chance of this turning out quite. I've agreed with you elsewhere about Roglic not getting a big enough lead over enough riders will leave him vulnerable, but he still has the TT to bank on. I don't see any stage Jumbo won't take to a sprint except 15 and 17
    Hope you are right. That he's vulnerable I mean. If he wins it, he will have deserved the win but there are at least 10 riders with at least a vaguely realistic prospect of the win that I'd rather see on the top step in Paris. Hopefully, even if he does win, the rest of the contenders will have challenged him in the meantime to make it an exciting watch.
    Team My Man 2022:

    Antwan Tolhoek, Sam Oomen, Tom Dumoulin, Thymen Arensman, Remco Evenepoel, Benoît Cosnefroy, Tom Pidcock, Mark Cavendish, Romain Bardet
  • jimmyjams
    jimmyjams Posts: 709
    phreak said:

    I really hope someone thrashes Roglic. It's Valverde style racing. Incredibly boring.

    I don't understand the antipathy to Roglic's tactics by some – like others have said, it's legitimate. Often the finger is pointed at Valverde, or now some Sky riders, but I actually associate it more with Rodriguez (who seemed to get less negative comments) . I'm not old enough to know, but I understand Zoetemelk wasn't adverse to it either.
  • jimmyjams
    jimmyjams Posts: 709
    rick_chasey said:

    Dumoulin said Roglic came to him to ask him how he was feeling at around 2km to go.

    Dumoulin said he felt terrible. At the interview said he felt glad just to hang on with the front group.

    I too later heard Dumoulin didn't feel good despite finishing with the front group. Good for him that he nevertheless stuck in.
    And that Carapaz, Barguil, and Higuita, and even moreso G.Bennett, Lutsenko and some others, finished well back on this 'easy' MTF makes me already think, one might soon be able identify the true challengers for each jersey.

  • jimmyjams
    jimmyjams Posts: 709
    mididoctors said:

    Martin went too early ...hell of a jump ...

    Pity about Guillaume Martin going too soon; he has been touted as a possible future Tour winner, perhaps with a better team. As recently also even said for Cosnefroy (more question marks).
    I'm sure Bardet won't ever manage it and think this year might also be the last chance for Pinot, so whynot Martin.
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 21,812
    jimmyjams said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Dumoulin said Roglic came to him to ask him how he was feeling at around 2km to go.

    Dumoulin said he felt terrible. At the interview said he felt glad just to hang on with the front group.

    I too later heard Dumoulin didn't feel good despite finishing with the front group. Good for him that he nevertheless stuck in.
    And that Carapaz, Barguil, and Higuita, and even moreso G.Bennett, Lutsenko and some others, finished well back on this 'easy' MTF makes me already think, one might soon be able identify the true challengers for each jersey.

    "How's Dumoulin feeling" watch has started early, this GT.
    I guess we can expect it, now, after every GC stage.

    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • DeadCalm
    DeadCalm Posts: 4,100
    jimmyjams said:

    mididoctors said:

    Martin went too early ...hell of a jump ...

    Pity about Guillaume Martin going too soon; he has been touted as a possible future Tour winner, perhaps with a better team. As recently also even said for Cosnefroy (more question marks).
    I'm sure Bardet won't ever manage it and think this year might also be the last chance for Pinot, so whynot Martin.
    IMO, Sivakov is France's next best chance for a Tour win. And I do know that he's Russian right now.
    Team My Man 2022:

    Antwan Tolhoek, Sam Oomen, Tom Dumoulin, Thymen Arensman, Remco Evenepoel, Benoît Cosnefroy, Tom Pidcock, Mark Cavendish, Romain Bardet
  • DeadCalm
    DeadCalm Posts: 4,100
    Incidentally, Carapaz lost 28 seconds today. Would Thomas have lost more or less? We'll never know. If Thomas wins the Giro, Brailsford will probably have ultimately made the right decision, but I can't help but think that Bernal is in a weaker position with Carapaz in the team as opposed to Thomas. I just don't see Carapaz providing as much support as Thomas would have done, even if Thomas was not entirely at full form.
    Team My Man 2022:

    Antwan Tolhoek, Sam Oomen, Tom Dumoulin, Thymen Arensman, Remco Evenepoel, Benoît Cosnefroy, Tom Pidcock, Mark Cavendish, Romain Bardet
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 16,860
    Mega jumbo.are not unbeatable. Got to use up sep kuss early ... Gonna need a few long rides thou
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,553
    DeadCalm said:

    Incidentally, Carapaz lost 28 seconds today. Would Thomas have lost more or less? We'll never know. If Thomas wins the Giro, Brailsford will probably have ultimately made the right decision, but I can't help but think that Bernal is in a weaker position with Carapaz in the team as opposed to Thomas. I just don't see Carapaz providing as much support as Thomas would have done, even if Thomas was not entirely at full form.

    I felt all along that Ineos were hedging when they decided to send Thomas to the Giro.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,702
    blazing_saddles said:

    jimmyjams said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Dumoulin said Roglic came to him to ask him how he was feeling at around 2km to go.

    Dumoulin said he felt terrible. At the interview said he felt glad just to hang on with the front group.

    I too later heard Dumoulin didn't feel good despite finishing with the front group. Good for him that he nevertheless stuck in.
    And that Carapaz, Barguil, and Higuita, and even moreso G.Bennett, Lutsenko and some others, finished well back on this 'easy' MTF makes me already think, one might soon be able identify the true challengers for each jersey.

    "How's Dumoulin feeling" watch has started early, this GT.
    I guess we can expect it, now, after every GC stage.

    This is my fault
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,702
    mididoctors said:

    Mega jumbo.are not unbeatable. Got to use up sep kuss early ... Gonna need a few long rides thou

    And hope Gesink’s day today was because of legs and not because Jumbo have decided to rotate the help.
    _
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,157
    DeadCalm said:

    jimmyjams said:

    mididoctors said:

    Martin went too early ...hell of a jump ...

    Pity about Guillaume Martin going too soon; he has been touted as a possible future Tour winner, perhaps with a better team. As recently also even said for Cosnefroy (more question marks).
    I'm sure Bardet won't ever manage it and think this year might also be the last chance for Pinot, so whynot Martin.
    IMO, Sivakov is France's next best chance for a Tour win. And I do know that he's Russian right now.

    He's already got superior stage race GC wins than either Pinot or Bardet
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,702
    RichN95. said:

    DeadCalm said:

    jimmyjams said:

    mididoctors said:

    Martin went too early ...hell of a jump ...

    Pity about Guillaume Martin going too soon; he has been touted as a possible future Tour winner, perhaps with a better team. As recently also even said for Cosnefroy (more question marks).
    I'm sure Bardet won't ever manage it and think this year might also be the last chance for Pinot, so whynot Martin.
    IMO, Sivakov is France's next best chance for a Tour win. And I do know that he's Russian right now.

    He's already got superior stage race GC wins than either Pinot or Bardet
    He was a tough old cookie in the Dauphiné.
    _
  • hypster
    hypster Posts: 1,229
    I think this race has all the ingredients to make it just like the football World Cup. It's become not about winning anymore, it's about not losing. By that very nature several riders who are too scared to take a chance and attack will automatically rule themselves out for victory and settle for a top-ten finish.
  • RichN95.
    RichN95. Posts: 27,157
    hypster said:

    I think this race has all the ingredients to make it just like the football World Cup. It's become not about winning anymore, it's about not losing. By that very nature several riders who are too scared to take a chance and attack will automatically rule themselves out for victory and settle for a top-ten finish.


    Will France triumph over a part of the old Yugoslavia in the final?
    Twitter: @RichN95
  • hypster
    hypster Posts: 1,229
    edited September 2020
    RichN95. said:

    hypster said:

    I think this race has all the ingredients to make it just like the football World Cup. It's become not about winning anymore, it's about not losing. By that very nature several riders who are too scared to take a chance and attack will automatically rule themselves out for victory and settle for a top-ten finish.


    Will France triumph over a part of the old Yugoslavia in the final?
    One can only hope. At least that will be a result.
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 16,860
    edited September 2020
    m.r.m. said:

    Pross said:

    Anyone think Yates may have been bluffing about chasing stages? He had a chance to go for the stage and yellow today but looked more like he wanted to ensure he didn't lose time. He could also have just been unable to make a move of course .

    Maybe it was the initial plan back when Froome and Thomas were still set to ride and Roglic and Bernal didn't have their injuries. Maybe now he sees he has good form and there is an outside shot and he is riding accordingly?!
    Post race he talked about nothing but GC and bring 4 secs off still
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 16,860
    A lot of riders think.they can get on the podium ..throw a blanket over that lot ... Not many are going to get a wheel in front of roglic in the final 500 .
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • mididoctors
    mididoctors Posts: 16,860
    16 riders with in 20 secs
    "If I was a 38 year old man, I definitely wouldn't be riding a bright yellow bike with Hello Kitty disc wheels, put it that way. What we're witnessing here is the world's most high profile mid-life crisis" Afx237vi Mon Jul 20, 2009 2:43 pm
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,702
    Stef Clement on the Avondetappe a little concerned how few riders (no Bennet, Gesink) jumbo had in the finale
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,702
    More Dumoulin watch: his trainer is on the avondetappe and he has all the data on the Jumbo boys - he confirms that Tom was obviously on a bad day as “he wasn’t pushing numbers that would suggest he’s in the red, based on what he’s been doing the last month”
    _

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