Big Trouble with not so Little China..πŸ‡­πŸ‡°πŸ’› / πŸ‡¨πŸ‡³πŸ˜‘

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  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,705
    ^ not a believer in MAD?
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190

    ^ not a believer in MAD?

    Whilst it works, it has limitations.
    Essentially, China can expand as much as it likes providing it doesn’t step too much on the toes of nuclear powers.
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    john80 said:

    morstar said:

    elbowloh said:

    It's only going to get tougher when China's economy and as a consequence it's military budget in five years (as predicted, probably less now) surpasses the United States.

    I wouldn't have thought their military budget would need to exceed the US's to overtake them militarily as their costs (men and material) would be significantly lower per head/piece of equipment?
    Is there any reason to think that they are looking to project military power outside of their immediate area?

    The US has more aircraft carriers than the rest of the world put together
    They have claimed pretty much the entire South China Sea.

    They are definitely projecting power. That the US has done so for years doesn’t make it any less of a problem. Just makes us a bit hypocritical to be worried about it.
    The worry for me this time round is that the US has met arguably an even match. Sure USA has more tech but China has a more compliant population in large numbers with a serious economy behind them. If the people believe that covid does not come from Wuhan it seems to me that it would be pretty easy to make them believe anything.
    I’m sure many are sceptical but in the absence of a free press...

    The last 5 years have shown how effective misinformation can be in democracies without state controlled press.
  • sungod
    sungod Posts: 16,552
    morstar said:

    john80 said:

    morstar said:

    elbowloh said:

    It's only going to get tougher when China's economy and as a consequence it's military budget in five years (as predicted, probably less now) surpasses the United States.

    I wouldn't have thought their military budget would need to exceed the US's to overtake them militarily as their costs (men and material) would be significantly lower per head/piece of equipment?
    Is there any reason to think that they are looking to project military power outside of their immediate area?

    The US has more aircraft carriers than the rest of the world put together
    They have claimed pretty much the entire South China Sea.

    They are definitely projecting power. That the US has done so for years doesn’t make it any less of a problem. Just makes us a bit hypocritical to be worried about it.
    The worry for me this time round is that the US has met arguably an even match. Sure USA has more tech but China has a more compliant population in large numbers with a serious economy behind them. If the people believe that covid does not come from Wuhan it seems to me that it would be pretty easy to make them believe anything.
    I’m sure many are sceptical but in the absence of a free press...

    The last 5 years have shown how effective misinformation can be in democracies without state controlled press.
    yep, even without state control, murdoch, rothermere, the barclays et alie easily got 52% to swallow the lies

    china has effectively shut down anything outside the party line, putin, orban, erdoğan etc. trying hard to do the same, plenty of other states well down that path, the anti-bbc zealots in the uk are following the same fascist script
    my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,776

    ^ not a believer in MAD?

    I Believe.




    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,705
    morstar said:

    ^ not a believer in MAD?

    Whilst it works, it has limitations.
    Essentially, China can expand as much as it likes providing it doesn’t step too much on the toes of nuclear powers.
    Currently has beef with India fwiw
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,622

    morstar said:

    ^ not a believer in MAD?

    Whilst it works, it has limitations.
    Essentially, China can expand as much as it likes providing it doesn’t step too much on the toes of nuclear powers.
    Currently has beef with India fwiw
    That's not really new though. It's the reason there isn't much in the way of border crossings. A few more skirmishes recently.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 8,744
    Thought it might be a good moment to resurrect this thread.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 7,202
    edited August 2022

    I think the more salient point is how do you project authority on a Country with the second largest economy and military budget, one which produces the products we all rely on and are using right now?

    This will change, quite rapidly, especially after corona.

    The world was heading in this direction anyway, but a focus on resilience will be a priority.

    You say it as if you know it will happen, where is your evidence to support this theory? What counts is what turns up on container-ships and planes, that's the fact of the situation.
    Back to normal isn't it.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,705
    Not in China it isn't. They're in the how many'th lockdown now?
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 7,202

    Not in China it isn't. They're in the how many'th lockdown now?

    No, in terms of the West still buying their productive swaggery.

    The shipping container costs (as one example) is an interesting one too in terms of inflation. Some companies have really been taking the mick. We're all in it "WHO" together is laughable in many respects.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,515
    Maybe the title should be 'Big trouble in not so little China'.
    https://telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/11/28/may-turning-point-chinas-history-west-must-not-miss/

    Let's hope this the start of something.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,705
    I admire your optimism but a feature of authoritarian regimes is that this stuff boils up every now and then, and then they crack down on this stuff really hard way way.

    Absolutely no chance of these protests doing much other than getting quite a few people chucked in prison and or hurt.

    Chinese state does a lot of polling and focus groups all the time (how else are they gonna know what's popular and what isn't?) so they'll know this stuff is deeply unpopular already, but clearly they don't care enough to change.

    What I don't quite understand is why the state is willing to beat people up, arrest people indiscriminately, but then the idea of compulsory vaccines is too much to bare.
  • I don't think they have any vaccines that will do the job, and aren't willing to import them.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,515

    I admire your optimism but a feature of authoritarian regimes is that this stuff boils up every now and then, and then they crack down on this stuff really hard way way.

    Absolutely no chance of these protests doing much other than getting quite a few people chucked in prison and or hurt.

    Chinese state does a lot of polling and focus groups all the time (how else are they gonna know what's popular and what isn't?) so they'll know this stuff is deeply unpopular already, but clearly they don't care enough to change.

    What I don't quite understand is why the state is willing to beat people up, arrest people indiscriminately, but then the idea of compulsory vaccines is too much to bare.

    Not sure what the likelihood is, but you can still hope even if it is low.

    One thing is clear - this is unprecedented. We haven't seen protests of this type (directly criticising the deal leader & the party), asking for democracy etc and on this scale before in china. Given that the locals know what the potential consequences are, they must be really aggrieved to do what they are doing.

    Also as KG refers, the govt seems to have no good way out. They can't/won't go down the vaccination route (as that implies relaxing restrictions and living with the virus which Xi appears to be dead set against). If they relax restrictions with a relatively low vaccination rate (especially amongst the elderly/vulnerable), the body count with their population size will be substantial. The only way seems to be to press on with draconian lock downs which will just make things worse.

    The genie may be coming out of the bottle, let's see.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 20,622
    Cases are at record highs, so they may not get much choice in the end.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 58,515

    Cases are at record highs, so they may not get much choice in the end.

    Sounds like their lockdowns are working too well either.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Not in China it isn't. They're in the how many'th lockdown now?

    No, in terms of the West still buying their productive swaggery.

    The shipping container costs (as one example) is an interesting one too in terms of inflation. Some companies have really been taking the mick. We're all in it "WHO" together is laughable in many respects.
    Shipping container costs are now at pre-pandemic levels again fortunately.