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  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 56,773 Lives Here
    edited March 2020
    Yours truly has free rein to WFH, and like f*ck am I gonna schlep in for 90 mins each way if no f*cker is going to see me in the office.
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 14,404

    Interesting the heat Sturgeon is getting for shutting down schools. Even admits herself it was not done on the basis of 'scientific evidence'.

    I know it's BoJo, but I really get the impression the UK is actually doing everything by the letter of the expert, not least as it seems so counter-intuitive.

    In this case there are differing expert opinions, so you can select the one you want.

    Electing somebody PM because he is positive may not turn out to have been such a great idea.
  • briantrumpetbriantrumpet Posts: 7,292
    This is fairly terrifying for the US.

    OK, so it's Twitter, but there is the distinct whiff of testing being made as hard as possible so that the declared number of cases is massively suppressed. With the speed with which this virus spreads, that's not going to end well. And all because of Trump's ego.
  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 17,507
    Can't have positive tests if you don't test - that's just common sense.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 56,773 Lives Here

    Interesting the heat Sturgeon is getting for shutting down schools. Even admits herself it was not done on the basis of 'scientific evidence'.

    I know it's BoJo, but I really get the impression the UK is actually doing everything by the letter of the expert, not least as it seems so counter-intuitive.

    In this case there are differing expert opinions, so you can select the one you want.

    Electing somebody PM because he is positive may not turn out to have been such a great idea.
    Yeah perhaps. I don't know much so I'm not gonna argue.

    The old duffer chief medical guy with his powerpoint and the way that happened made me feel like the Uk govt was doing exactly what he thinks is right, and ultimately, that's how it should be, right?

    No-one knows what the right approach is.
  • bompingtonbompington Posts: 7,674

    The old duffer chief medical guy with his powerpoint and the way that happened made me feel like the Uk govt was doing exactly what he thinks is right, and ultimately, that's how it should be, right?

    No-one knows what the right approach is.

    We would all like certainty - a protocol that says "in case of X, do action Y" - but a lot of people find it hard to accept that we're in unknown territory: slowly actual data is emerging, but it's incomplete and inconclusive - and even hard data doesn't always tell you what the optimum course of action is.

    At least the "old duffer" is an actual expert in infectious diseases, and has a seriously high rep among doctors.

    The issue is that the government genuinely do have hard decisions to make: it's pretty much like wartime - you get to decide who dies and how many deaths are worth it. The flak directed at Johnson for his "loved ones are going to die" message is ridiculous - what was he supposed to do, tell everyone that it was no problem and soon there would be no cases at all?

    Even if you think that saving lives takes absolute priority over the economy, just bear in mind that a tanking economy will cause massive extra mortality and morbidity. Anyone up for that?
  • darkhairedlorddarkhairedlord Posts: 7,041

  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 13,764
    I'd like to know the plans for expanding bed capacity in the NHS. For example, if they had currently taken over the Excel centre, were filling it full of beds and medical equipment, and had worked out how to repurpose black cabs to transport people, I would feel a bit more confident.
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 14,404

    Can't have positive tests if you don't test - that's just common sense.

    we can only test 1,500 a day in the UK so will keep the numbers down over here
  • shortfallshortfall Posts: 3,287
    edited March 2020

    Even if you think that saving lives takes absolute priority over the economy, just bear in mind that a tanking economy will cause massive extra mortality and morbidity. Anyone up for that?


    This.
    Regardless of what happens to our own economy, if the airlines, tourism and travel industries take a massive hit then millions of people around the world in developing nations who rely on this for their living will suffer and die. I'm not claiming any expert knowledge here but I have heard of the saying "Using a sledgehammer to miss a nut." and I've also heard of the law of unintended consequence. Whatever the rights and wrongs of how to deal with this we don't want a cure that's worse than the disease.
  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 17,507

    Can't have positive tests if you don't test - that's just common sense.

    we can only test 1,500 a day in the UK so will keep the numbers down over here
    Does that include all the footballers who manage to be able to get an instant test?
  • I'd like to know the plans for expanding bed capacity in the NHS. For example, if they had currently taken over the Excel centre, were filling it full of beds and medical equipment, and had worked out how to repurpose black cabs to transport people, I would feel a bit more confident.

    The NHS will have a plan for this. It's not like this is the first potential pandemic in recent history (e.g. SARS, MERS, Ebola, etc)

    From what I have heard first is cancelling non emergency appointments/surgery and redeploying those medical resources
  • Can't have positive tests if you don't test - that's just common sense.

    we can only test 1,500 a day in the UK so will keep the numbers down over here
    We can now do 10k tests a day.

    They are reserbing the testing capacity now to critical areas e.g. hospital patients and medical staff, which makes sense as this is where the most vulnerable are.
  • TheBigBeanTheBigBean Posts: 13,764

    I'd like to know the plans for expanding bed capacity in the NHS. For example, if they had currently taken over the Excel centre, were filling it full of beds and medical equipment, and had worked out how to repurpose black cabs to transport people, I would feel a bit more confident.

    The NHS will have a plan for this. It's not like this is the first potential pandemic in recent history (e.g. SARS, MERS, Ebola, etc)

    From what I have heard first is cancelling non emergency appointments/surgery and redeploying those medical resources
    I hope so, but I think it would be helpful to get ready in advance. It took China 10 days to build a few hospitals.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 56,773 Lives Here

    The old duffer chief medical guy with his powerpoint and the way that happened made me feel like the Uk govt was doing exactly what he thinks is right, and ultimately, that's how it should be, right?

    No-one knows what the right approach is.

    We would all like certainty - a protocol that says "in case of X, do action Y" - but a lot of people find it hard to accept that we're in unknown territory: slowly actual data is emerging, but it's incomplete and inconclusive - and even hard data doesn't always tell you what the optimum course of action is.

    At least the "old duffer" is an actual expert in infectious diseases, and has a seriously high rep among doctors.

    The issue is that the government genuinely do have hard decisions to make: it's pretty much like wartime - you get to decide who dies and how many deaths are worth it. The flak directed at Johnson for his "loved ones are going to die" message is ridiculous - what was he supposed to do, tell everyone that it was no problem and soon there would be no cases at all?

    Even if you think that saving lives takes absolute priority over the economy, just bear in mind that a tanking economy will cause massive extra mortality and morbidity. Anyone up for that?
    Agreed.

    I think gov'ts are more king cnut than anything else in this scenario.
  • ProssPross Posts: 29,076

    Interesting the heat Sturgeon is getting for shutting down schools. Even admits herself it was not done on the basis of 'scientific evidence'.

    I know it's BoJo, but I really get the impression the UK is actually doing everything by the letter of the expert, not least as it seems so counter-intuitive.

    In this case there are differing expert opinions, so you can select the one you want.

    Electing somebody PM because he is positive may not turn out to have been such a great idea.
    Yeah perhaps. I don't know much so I'm not gonna argue.

    The old duffer chief medical guy with his powerpoint and the way that happened made me feel like the Uk govt was doing exactly what he thinks is right, and ultimately, that's how it should be, right?

    No-one knows what the right approach is.
    That's my thinking. For some reason people are assuming the Italians are doing it right, presumably as it looks more like taking control to shut a country down. I believe the French have been taking a similar approach to the UK. This morning I listened to the Chief Scientific Adviser; a former professor of medicine at UCL, Fellow of the Royal College of Physicians and former head of research at GSK spend about 10 minutes explaining the Government advice. Within 30 seconds of him finishing the BBC read out texts from viewers (no qualifications or medical experience cited) stating how he was getting it all wrong and putting lives at risk. There's no point in a Government paying medical and scientific advisers if they then just follow the crowd and do what everyone else is doing.
  • Pross said:

    Interesting the heat Sturgeon is getting for shutting down schools. Even admits herself it was not done on the basis of 'scientific evidence'.

    I know it's BoJo, but I really get the impression the UK is actually doing everything by the letter of the expert, not least as it seems so counter-intuitive.

    In this case there are differing expert opinions, so you can select the one you want.

    Electing somebody PM because he is positive may not turn out to have been such a great idea.
    Yeah perhaps. I don't know much so I'm not gonna argue.

    The old duffer chief medical guy with his powerpoint and the way that happened made me feel like the Uk govt was doing exactly what he thinks is right, and ultimately, that's how it should be, right?

    No-one knows what the right approach is.
    That's my thinking. For some reason people are assuming the Italians are doing it right, presumably as it looks more like taking control to shut a country down. I believe the French have been taking a similar approach to the UK. This morning I listened to the Chief Scientific Adviser; a former professor of medicine at UCL, Fellow of the Royal College of Physicians and former head of research at GSK spend about 10 minutes explaining the Government advice. Within 30 seconds of him finishing the BBC read out texts from viewers (no qualifications or medical experience cited) stating how he was getting it all wrong and putting lives at risk. There's no point in a Government paying medical and scientific advisers if they then just follow the crowd and do what everyone else is doing.
    The media have been a problem around this since the start.

    Newsnight were equally over dramatic last night rather than just reporting on the facts
  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 17,507
    Just heard the scientist from yesterday - made a lot of sense, and I hope he's right about building up a herd mentality gradually. The difficult thing is that they will need to both a) be right and b) hold their nerve when our numbers go higher.
  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 56,773 Lives Here

    Just heard the scientist from yesterday - made a lot of sense, and I hope he's right about building up a herd mentality gradually. The difficult thing is that they will need to both a) be right and b) hold their nerve when our numbers go higher.

    Presumably they've thought about this. Read that a lot of how it's being communicated is being driven by behavioural science experts. Let's hope they're right.
  • bompingtonbompington Posts: 7,674

    Interesting the heat Sturgeon is getting for shutting down schools

    ????
    We still here!

  • rick_chaseyrick_chasey Posts: 56,773 Lives Here

    Interesting the heat Sturgeon is getting for shutting down schools

    ????
    We still here!

    Ah my mistake!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-51851341

    Mass events!
  • bompingtonbompington Posts: 7,674
    Yep. The idea is that mass events are banned because they take resources, not because of the risk of transmission: it's the events that have to have emergency service cover that are banned.

    Although that does leave some of us wondering why you need ambulance and police cover for a fun run with 500 entrants but not a school with 1000 pupils.
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 14,404

    Can't have positive tests if you don't test - that's just common sense.

    we can only test 1,500 a day in the UK so will keep the numbers down over here
    Does that include all the footballers who manage to be able to get an instant test?
    will be interesting to see what ratio of infections that football clubs end up with
  • bompingtonbompington Posts: 7,674

    Can't have positive tests if you don't test - that's just common sense.

    we can only test 1,500 a day in the UK so will keep the numbers down over here
    Does that include all the footballers who manage to be able to get an instant test?
    will be interesting to see what ratio of infections that football clubs end up with
    If you could identify a subset that is typical enough of the general population in its habits and contacts to be representative, but privileged and health-aware enough to be sure to be tested thoroughly, then you could get a good rough idea of the actual prevalence.
  • surrey_commutersurrey_commuter Posts: 14,404

    Can't have positive tests if you don't test - that's just common sense.

    we can only test 1,500 a day in the UK so will keep the numbers down over here
    Does that include all the footballers who manage to be able to get an instant test?
    will be interesting to see what ratio of infections that football clubs end up with
    If you could identify a subset that is typical enough of the general population in its habits and contacts to be representative, but privileged and health-aware enough to be sure to be tested thoroughly, then you could get a good rough idea of the actual prevalence.
    I do subscribe to the theory that any sample is inherently biased
  • ddraverddraver Posts: 22,982


    Although that does leave some of us wondering why you need ambulance and police cover for a fun run with 500 entrants but not a school with 1000 pupils.

    At the risk of doing exactly what Pross suggests, it's because of a higher likelihood of injuries and also Fabrice Muamba moments at a run innit? Presumably, a school has a first aid kit, first aiders and one of them DeFib machines already.

    (plus a high amount of that sort of first aid work is, "Naaaw, have you got a baddy leg, awwww kiss it better")

    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • tailwindhometailwindhome Posts: 16,585
    I wonder how much of 'everything will be cancelled anyway so we don't need to cancel it' has been factored into the government thinking and messaging
    Believe that a farther shore
    Is reachable from here.
    Believe in miracles
    And cures and healing wells
  • ddraverddraver Posts: 22,982
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • parmosparmos Posts: 86
    edited March 2020
    never seen so much rubbish in all my years as whats going on in the world at the minute everyone all ar$e clenchers
  • kingstongrahamkingstongraham Posts: 17,507
    parmos said:

    never seen so much rubbish in all my years as whats going on in the world at the minute everyone all ar$e clenchers

    You're a "get rid of the deadwood" type then?
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