The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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On a positive note, the long incubation period means that rapid increase is based on pre lockdown infections.briantrumpet said:briantrumpet said:kingstongraham said:
Worth remembering. Today's UK deaths up by 115.kingstongraham said:
Timing apparently.kingstonian said:
Wonder what the change in approach actually meanstailwindhome said:
Sounds like they are priming for today's to be a high number.
Still now a bit under Italy at the same stage, next few days could get scary if it follows that path.
Part of that is (apparently) changing the timing for collection of data (sorry if that sounds brutal in the context), so yesterday's figure was under-reported, and today's over-reported.
Oh well, that didn't age well. Another 181 deaths today. The only comfort for me is that there were none in Devon. London's not looking at all good.
Doesn’t look pretty though.0 -
Overheard some interesting stats on the radio.
C-19 is 45 times more deadly than the flu.
While that's sinking in.....
C-19 is twice as deadly as the Spanish Flu.
Let's just concentrate on the economy so we don't have to contemplate that. 🤔The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
France still not hit peak and they are a couple of weeks ahead of usmorstar said:
On a positive note, the long incubation period means that rapid increase is based on pre lockdown infections.briantrumpet said:briantrumpet said:kingstongraham said:
Worth remembering. Today's UK deaths up by 115.kingstongraham said:
Timing apparently.kingstonian said:
Wonder what the change in approach actually meanstailwindhome said:
Sounds like they are priming for today's to be a high number.
Still now a bit under Italy at the same stage, next few days could get scary if it follows that path.
Part of that is (apparently) changing the timing for collection of data (sorry if that sounds brutal in the context), so yesterday's figure was under-reported, and today's over-reported.
Oh well, that didn't age well. Another 181 deaths today. The only comfort for me is that there were none in Devon. London's not looking at all good.
Doesn’t look pretty though.0 -
Tbh there was a rise of hard right pre this and in a brutal recession I do worry where we end up in 4 years....0
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London is a very big place, though the number of people I know who think they have it is increasing, fortunately all mild symptoms. People who fled London to be with elderly relatives now doubting their wisdom. French colleagues increasing know somebody who has died.briantrumpet said:briantrumpet said:kingstongraham said:
Worth remembering. Today's UK deaths up by 115.kingstongraham said:
Timing apparently.kingstonian said:
Wonder what the change in approach actually meanstailwindhome said:
Sounds like they are priming for today's to be a high number.
Still now a bit under Italy at the same stage, next few days could get scary if it follows that path.
Part of that is (apparently) changing the timing for collection of data (sorry if that sounds brutal in the context), so yesterday's figure was under-reported, and today's over-reported.
Oh well, that didn't age well. Another 181 deaths today. The only comfort for me is that there were none in Devon. London's not looking at all good.0 -
surrey_commuter said:
London is a very big place, though the number of people I know who think they have it is increasing, fortunately all mild symptoms. People who fled London to be with elderly relatives now doubting their wisdom. French colleagues increasing know somebody who has died.briantrumpet said:briantrumpet said:kingstongraham said:
Worth remembering. Today's UK deaths up by 115.kingstongraham said:
Timing apparently.kingstonian said:
Wonder what the change in approach actually meanstailwindhome said:
Sounds like they are priming for today's to be a high number.
Still now a bit under Italy at the same stage, next few days could get scary if it follows that path.
Part of that is (apparently) changing the timing for collection of data (sorry if that sounds brutal in the context), so yesterday's figure was under-reported, and today's over-reported.
Oh well, that didn't age well. Another 181 deaths today. The only comfort for me is that there were none in Devon. London's not looking at all good.
Decided not to go to Bristol to be with my 87-year old mum - she's coping brilliantly in her house, and I'd only be another possible source of infection. And at least if I were to get it, I know I'm not going to pass it to her.0 -
pblakeney said:
Overheard some interesting stats on the radio.
C-19 is 45 times more deadly than the flu.
While that's sinking in.....
C-19 is twice as deadly as the Spanish Flu.
Let's just concentrate on the economy so we don't have to contemplate that. 🤔
In reality it is far too early to know this.0 -
We have steered clear of my parents. Both quite vulnerable, mum very much so but very sharp mentally and seem to be well set. Neighbour did a shop for them following a delivery never turning up.
Work has announced today they are actively seeking to furlough staff on full pay starting next week. Basically we have work to do but not enough for everyone. 50:50 on whether I will be in that group. I could make a coherent case either way. I have a less common skill set but it is also less in demand than other skills. Turned down a job offer yesterday as well on balance of risk.
Interesting times indeed.0 -
We're all having a normal one today.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
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On the day that two senior Tories tested positive for CV-19, a pile of Republicans gather shoulder-to-shoulder for a photo to mark the signing of the CV-19 stimulus package. I imagine the Democrats weren't too fussed about not having been invited, in the circumstances.
twitter.com/Acosta/status/1243639736025190402
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It's an opinion, I disagree under these extreme circumstances.shortfall said:
I agree it would help NHS cope but I don't agree with the lockdown and assault on civil liberties as a means to achieve it.kingstongraham said:
If true, good news in the medium term, but the acute effects on health services are happening, and you can agree need the curve to be flattened?shortfall said:Meanwhile, another point of view from the Wall Street Journal.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/is-the-coronavirus-as-deadly-as-they-say-115850884640 -
The commentary accompanying notes that the UK has more deaths at this point than all except Italy and Spain.briantrumpet said:No reassurance here, sadly.
This also looks bad for Germany.
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Source? I'd like to see the evidence for that claim. Another stat to revisit in a few months? Also, whether you like it or not the economy matters because no economy, no NHS.pblakeney said:Overheard some interesting stats on the radio.
C-19 is 45 times more deadly than the flu.
While that's sinking in.....
C-19 is twice as deadly as the Spanish Flu.
Let's just concentrate on the economy so we don't have to contemplate that. 🤔0 -
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Have been worrying about this all day.rick_chasey said:Tbh there was a rise of hard right pre this and in a brutal recession I do worry where we end up in 4 years....
G’night.0 -
It is all out there. I know because I checked before posting.shortfall said:
Source? I'd like to see the evidence for that claim. Another stat to revisit in a few months? Also, whether you like it or not the economy matters because no economy, no NHS.pblakeney said:Overheard some interesting stats on the radio.
C-19 is 45 times more deadly than the flu.
While that's sinking in.....
C-19 is twice as deadly as the Spanish Flu.
Let's just concentrate on the economy so we don't have to contemplate that. 🤔
If you are interested you will see. It's not difficult.
And you are missing the point. Both are completely screwed.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
My, this thread moves on at a pace. Go away for a couple of hours and you are pages behind so I tend to skim read to catch up.Pross said:Just to state my own opinion on economy versus death rate, which I have done previously. I, like most on here it appears, agree that there has to be a trade off between 'keeping things going' and accepting that deaths will occur and in particular amongst those who are already struggling healthwise. However, I think there is a balance somewhere between the Coopster 'carry on as normal and let the weak die' approach and a full on shutdown and I believe that if our current rules are properly enforced we are pretty close to that optimum with the support measures in place (even though I'm in that relatively small group of people who have very limited protection from those measures).
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But I pretty much agree with Pross here. We have to strike a balance between keeping things going and total lock down and I think what we are doing is broadly correct.
The measures brought in have been phased so that people will more readily accept restrictions and no, we are nowhere near being a police state.
I am exasperated though by people who can not follow simple instructions. Go home and sit on your 4r5e and we will pay you 80%. How difficult is that?
On the subject of the 80%, I have heard moans about managing. There are people working in the NHS not earning £2500 a month and there are certainly people in the care industry and people trying to keep the food supply going who can only dream of earning £2500 a month. Whinging bastards!
Oh, and Rick. If you have really spent all day worrying about the hard right, you really need to get out more. Oops, sorry. You can't can you? You must be driving your missus up the wall.
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I expected more of you and that you would not fall for hysterical and false statistical claptrap.pblakeney said:Overheard some interesting stats on the radio.
C-19 is 45 times more deadly than the flu.
While that's sinking in.....
C-19 is twice as deadly as the Spanish Flu.
Let's just concentrate on the economy so we don't have to contemplate that. 🤔
You are comparing the confirmed case mortality rate(positive tests v deaths) of C19 with the estimated mortality rate for flu. The flu case rate also has the advantage of medical intervention via yearly vaccination.
The C19 mortality rate will be higher than flu because the old and vulnerable population do not have the benefit of vaccination but it will be lower than 0.5%.0 -
Well it was bubbling in the (19)20s and the Great Depression gave them and the communists rocket fuel.0
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You are both just pulling numbers out of your behinds.coopster_the_1st said:
I expected more of you and that you would not fall for hysterical and false statistical claptrap.pblakeney said:Overheard some interesting stats on the radio.
C-19 is 45 times more deadly than the flu.
While that's sinking in.....
C-19 is twice as deadly as the Spanish Flu.
Let's just concentrate on the economy so we don't have to contemplate that. 🤔
You are comparing the confirmed case mortality rate(positive tests v deaths) of C19 with the estimated mortality rate for flu. The flu case rate also has the advantage of medical intervention via yearly vaccination.
The C19 mortality rate will be higher than flu because the old and vulnerable population do not have the benefit of vaccination but it will be lower than 0.5%.
The survival rate of C19 would also seem to depend heavily on the availability of medical equipment. Quoting one rate doesn't feel helpful at all.0 -
I was impressed that you didn't want to fall for early estimates that were not known to be correct, but then you did, because it supports your previous thinking.coopster_the_1st said:
I expected more of you and that you would not fall for hysterical and false statistical claptrap.pblakeney said:Overheard some interesting stats on the radio.
C-19 is 45 times more deadly than the flu.
While that's sinking in.....
C-19 is twice as deadly as the Spanish Flu.
Let's just concentrate on the economy so we don't have to contemplate that. 🤔
You are comparing the confirmed case mortality rate(positive tests v deaths) of C19 with the estimated mortality rate for flu. The flu case rate also has the advantage of medical intervention via yearly vaccination.
The C19 mortality rate will be higher than flu because the old and vulnerable population do not have the benefit of vaccination but it will be lower than 0.5%.
Even in the reports I have seen that have quoted it, the 4.5% was known to be too high. But no-one is claiming to *know* that it will eventually be less than 0.5%. Assumptions are being made.0 -
Based on modelling, say infection rates double every 4 days(this will slow as more people recovery and have immunity), how many people have or have had C19?kingstongraham said:
I was impressed that you didn't want to fall for early estimates that were not known to be correct, but then you did, because it supports your previous thinking.coopster_the_1st said:
I expected more of you and that you would not fall for hysterical and false statistical claptrap.pblakeney said:Overheard some interesting stats on the radio.
C-19 is 45 times more deadly than the flu.
While that's sinking in.....
C-19 is twice as deadly as the Spanish Flu.
Let's just concentrate on the economy so we don't have to contemplate that. 🤔
You are comparing the confirmed case mortality rate(positive tests v deaths) of C19 with the estimated mortality rate for flu. The flu case rate also has the advantage of medical intervention via yearly vaccination.
The C19 mortality rate will be higher than flu because the old and vulnerable population do not have the benefit of vaccination but it will be lower than 0.5%.
Even in the reports I have seen that have quoted it, the 4.5% was known to be too high. But no-one is claiming to *know* that it will eventually be less than 0.5%. Assumptions are being made.
Now with that information you can see the alarmist 4.5% mortality rate really isn't anywhere near that number.0 -
Fair play coop didn't know you'd done the modellingsam0
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If we thought austerity during a growth phase and the recovery from the GFC fuelled the far right across Europe, can you imagine what will happen during this monster recession?
We’ve already got the roots for nativist politics, and the inevitable clamours for autarky that will come from this pandemic.
It all feels rather too an obvious path.0 -
On the other hand, those populist right wing politicians in power are being shown to be woefully inadequate. I doubt that will be forgotten. Also, it really is not the 1920s.rick_chasey said:If we thought austerity during a growth phase and the recovery from the GFC fuelled the far right across Europe, can you imagine what will happen during this monster recession?
We’ve already got the roots for nativist politics, and the inevitable clamours for autarky that will come from this pandemic.
It all feels rather too an obvious path.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
It'll be interesting to see how quickly those suddenly faced with £94 a week to live on forget how they felt.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
A lot of people are already there.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0
