The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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Fairly detailed breakdown of the Spanish study just published.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Minor aside, I really dislike the portrayal of the Abbott test as having 100% specificity. It doesn't, and 99.6% is materially different to 100%.rjsterry said:Fairly detailed breakdown of the Spanish study just published.
In a large sample this can be controlled for. Just grumbling about the tweet.0 -
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in all honesty, why bother? they have up to 50,000 excess deaths on their hands and yet most people think they did a good jobrick_chasey said:I see the gov't's finger pointing has started.
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Because Starmer is likely to spend the next four years pointing it out, so they need to test-run their various responses to see what lands well.surrey_commuter said:
in all honesty, why bother? they have up to 50,000 excess deaths on their hands and yet most people think they did a good jobrick_chasey said:I see the gov't's finger pointing has started.
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It seems the medical thinking has now moved onto T-cells rather the anti-bodies. It seems like the anti-bodies have a half life of 3 weeks so don't provide long term immunity but the T-cells do provide this better.nickice said:
I still think that it tends to get about 10-20% of the population and the rest have cross immunity (as referenced in the article you posted) or are naturally resistant. I bet somewhere like Madrid will not see a spike whereas places that have never really had many cases will.blazing_saddles said:
Here's another shade of grey for you.DeVlaeminck said:So a study from Spain suggesting immunity is short lived - to the extent herd immunity without a vaccine is a non-starter. If true I guess we better hope for a vaccine!!
T cells found in COVID-19 patients ‘bode well’ for long-term immunity.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/05/t-cells-found-covid-19-patients-bode-well-long-term-immunity
So, my understanding is, with the T-cells, you could be infected with C19 again but your body would fight the virus off quicker and before any symptoms were visible. Similar to those who are asymptomatic now, which would correlate with the thinking that catching a past coronavirus giving you an amount of protection against C19.
I still think it is a winter virus and we will see the second wave then and every future winter.0 -
That quote was from the herd immunity days of mid March. The lockdown then came to try and stop the hospitals being overwhelmed. Too late to prevent a lot of the deaths, but enough to stop the economy.coopster_the_1st said:
If we don't get and keep the number of infections low, then clearly we will see another spike at some point, but hopefully with a better understanding of the disease and how to treat it. That is already the case. And hopefully a plan to get kids into schools.0 -
For me, it was definitely over 3 months.nickice said:
How long did they say antibodies were detectable for? If immunity doesn't last long, people will have to be getting constant vaccine boosters.DeVlaeminck said:So a study from Spain suggesting immunity is short lived - to the extent herd immunity without a vaccine is a non-starter. If true I guess we better hope for a vaccine!!
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What has local government being doing for all this time then as most of it comes under their remit/authority?rick_chasey said:
Or does that get ignored because it is all Labour?0 -
The schools are fine in the warmer months, should never have been closed and should be fully open now. They may become a problem for spreading over the colder months like everywhere else, meat packing factories being a good example, and now maybe Melbourne as an example now it is in its Winter.kingstongraham said:
That quote was from the herd immunity days of mid March. The lockdown then came to try and stop the hospitals being overwhelmed. Too late to prevent a lot of the deaths, but enough to stop the economy.coopster_the_1st said:
If we don't get and keep the number of infections low, then clearly we will see another spike at some point, but hopefully with a better understanding of the disease and how to treat it. That is already the case. And hopefully a plan to get kids into schools.
The lockdown loonies have created huge future problems as if we cannot open now in the safer, warmer months we are going to be screwed by their hysteria come the colder months.0 -
That's the government panicking and prioritising pubs over schools. And the unions.coopster_the_1st said:
The schools are fine in the warmer months, should never have been closed and should be fully open now. They may become a problem for spreading over the colder months like everywhere else, meat packing factories being a good example, and now maybe Melbourne as an example now it is in its Winter.kingstongraham said:
That quote was from the herd immunity days of mid March. The lockdown then came to try and stop the hospitals being overwhelmed. Too late to prevent a lot of the deaths, but enough to stop the economy.coopster_the_1st said:
If we don't get and keep the number of infections low, then clearly we will see another spike at some point, but hopefully with a better understanding of the disease and how to treat it. That is already the case. And hopefully a plan to get kids into schools.
The lockdown loonies have created huge future problems as if we cannot open now in the safer, warmer months we are going to be screwed by their hysteria come the colder months.0 -
How do you explain the struggles in Mexico, India, Brazil and others if it is all about temperature?coopster_the_1st said:
The schools are fine in the warmer months, should never have been closed and should be fully open now. They may become a problem for spreading over the colder months like everywhere else, meat packing factories being a good example, and now maybe Melbourne as an example now it is in its Winter.kingstongraham said:
That quote was from the herd immunity days of mid March. The lockdown then came to try and stop the hospitals being overwhelmed. Too late to prevent a lot of the deaths, but enough to stop the economy.coopster_the_1st said:
If we don't get and keep the number of infections low, then clearly we will see another spike at some point, but hopefully with a better understanding of the disease and how to treat it. That is already the case. And hopefully a plan to get kids into schools.
The lockdown loonies have created huge future problems as if we cannot open now in the safer, warmer months we are going to be screwed by their hysteria come the colder months.0 -
Another week of data and C19 brought forward deaths gains momentum.0
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I think it is related to climate your genetics are accustomed to ie we Brits don't need as much sun exposure for Vit D as people of African origin.TheBigBean said:
How do you explain the struggles in Mexico, India, Brazil and others if it is all about temperature?coopster_the_1st said:
The schools are fine in the warmer months, should never have been closed and should be fully open now. They may become a problem for spreading over the colder months like everywhere else, meat packing factories being a good example, and now maybe Melbourne as an example now it is in its Winter.kingstongraham said:
That quote was from the herd immunity days of mid March. The lockdown then came to try and stop the hospitals being overwhelmed. Too late to prevent a lot of the deaths, but enough to stop the economy.coopster_the_1st said:
If we don't get and keep the number of infections low, then clearly we will see another spike at some point, but hopefully with a better understanding of the disease and how to treat it. That is already the case. And hopefully a plan to get kids into schools.
The lockdown loonies have created huge future problems as if we cannot open now in the safer, warmer months we are going to be screwed by their hysteria come the colder months.
The 3 countries you list, and many others all have incredibly high density living, particularly amongst the poorest of society which will contribute hugely to the infection spread.0 -
And those famously chilly places Florida, Arizona, Texas and Georgia.TheBigBean said:
How do you explain the struggles in Mexico, India, Brazil and others if it is all about temperature?coopster_the_1st said:
The schools are fine in the warmer months, should never have been closed and should be fully open now. They may become a problem for spreading over the colder months like everywhere else, meat packing factories being a good example, and now maybe Melbourne as an example now it is in its Winter.kingstongraham said:
That quote was from the herd immunity days of mid March. The lockdown then came to try and stop the hospitals being overwhelmed. Too late to prevent a lot of the deaths, but enough to stop the economy.coopster_the_1st said:
If we don't get and keep the number of infections low, then clearly we will see another spike at some point, but hopefully with a better understanding of the disease and how to treat it. That is already the case. And hopefully a plan to get kids into schools.
The lockdown loonies have created huge future problems as if we cannot open now in the safer, warmer months we are going to be screwed by their hysteria come the colder months.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Texas is getting quite exciting in terms of the potential downsides of herd immunity.
Coopster - i get your argument about the Autumn and assuming you know people who hold the same view how many of they are going out of their way to get C19 now when it is relatively safe?
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I’d guess none.surrey_commuter said:Texas is getting quite exciting in terms of the potential downsides of herd immunity.
Coopster - i get your argument about the Autumn and assuming you know people who hold the same view how many of they are going out of their way to get C19 now when it is relatively safe?
They want to be in the 40% but won’t admit it.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Those are places where it is too hot to be comfortable outside all the time.rjsterry said:
And those famously chilly places Florida, Arizona, Texas and Georgia.TheBigBean said:
How do you explain the struggles in Mexico, India, Brazil and others if it is all about temperature?coopster_the_1st said:
The schools are fine in the warmer months, should never have been closed and should be fully open now. They may become a problem for spreading over the colder months like everywhere else, meat packing factories being a good example, and now maybe Melbourne as an example now it is in its Winter.kingstongraham said:
That quote was from the herd immunity days of mid March. The lockdown then came to try and stop the hospitals being overwhelmed. Too late to prevent a lot of the deaths, but enough to stop the economy.coopster_the_1st said:
If we don't get and keep the number of infections low, then clearly we will see another spike at some point, but hopefully with a better understanding of the disease and how to treat it. That is already the case. And hopefully a plan to get kids into schools.
The lockdown loonies have created huge future problems as if we cannot open now in the safer, warmer months we are going to be screwed by their hysteria come the colder months.0 -
Does not bode well for returning to offices anytime soon.kingstongraham said:
Those are places where it is too hot to be comfortable outside all the time.rjsterry said:
And those famously chilly places Florida, Arizona, Texas and Georgia.TheBigBean said:
How do you explain the struggles in Mexico, India, Brazil and others if it is all about temperature?coopster_the_1st said:
The schools are fine in the warmer months, should never have been closed and should be fully open now. They may become a problem for spreading over the colder months like everywhere else, meat packing factories being a good example, and now maybe Melbourne as an example now it is in its Winter.kingstongraham said:
That quote was from the herd immunity days of mid March. The lockdown then came to try and stop the hospitals being overwhelmed. Too late to prevent a lot of the deaths, but enough to stop the economy.coopster_the_1st said:
If we don't get and keep the number of infections low, then clearly we will see another spike at some point, but hopefully with a better understanding of the disease and how to treat it. That is already the case. And hopefully a plan to get kids into schools.
The lockdown loonies have created huge future problems as if we cannot open now in the safer, warmer months we are going to be screwed by their hysteria come the colder months.0 -
Really? Brazil?? Mexico??coopster_the_1st said:
I think it is related to climate your genetics are accustomed to ie we Brits don't need as much sun exposure for Vit D as people of African origin.TheBigBean said:
How do you explain the struggles in Mexico, India, Brazil and others if it is all about temperature?coopster_the_1st said:
The schools are fine in the warmer months, should never have been closed and should be fully open now. They may become a problem for spreading over the colder months like everywhere else, meat packing factories being a good example, and now maybe Melbourne as an example now it is in its Winter.kingstongraham said:
That quote was from the herd immunity days of mid March. The lockdown then came to try and stop the hospitals being overwhelmed. Too late to prevent a lot of the deaths, but enough to stop the economy.coopster_the_1st said:
If we don't get and keep the number of infections low, then clearly we will see another spike at some point, but hopefully with a better understanding of the disease and how to treat it. That is already the case. And hopefully a plan to get kids into schools.
The lockdown loonies have created huge future problems as if we cannot open now in the safer, warmer months we are going to be screwed by their hysteria come the colder months.
The 3 countries you list, and many others all have incredibly high density living, particularly amongst the poorest of society which will contribute hugely to the infection spread.Wilier Izoard XP0 -
A bit like lounging around blasting the oxygen at base camp and scoffing all Kendal mint cakes before the big climb.coopster_the_1st said:
The schools are fine in the warmer months, should never have been closed and should be fully open now. They may become a problem for spreading over the colder months like everywhere else, meat packing factories being a good example, and now maybe Melbourne as an example now it is in its Winter.kingstongraham said:
That quote was from the herd immunity days of mid March. The lockdown then came to try and stop the hospitals being overwhelmed. Too late to prevent a lot of the deaths, but enough to stop the economy.coopster_the_1st said:
If we don't get and keep the number of infections low, then clearly we will see another spike at some point, but hopefully with a better understanding of the disease and how to treat it. That is already the case. And hopefully a plan to get kids into schools.
The lockdown loonies have created huge future problems as if we cannot open now in the safer, warmer months we are going to be screwed by their hysteria come the colder months.0 -
What is the Portuguese for "schadenfreude"?0
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It's only a little flu...First.Aspect said:What is the Portuguese for "schadenfreude"?
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It might have some seasonality but if nobody (or very few people) is immune to it, it's going to spread. Older people in Spain and Italy are often vitamin D deficient because they stay out of the sun.laurentian said:
Really? Brazil?? Mexico??coopster_the_1st said:
I think it is related to climate your genetics are accustomed to ie we Brits don't need as much sun exposure for Vit D as people of African origin.TheBigBean said:
How do you explain the struggles in Mexico, India, Brazil and others if it is all about temperature?coopster_the_1st said:
The schools are fine in the warmer months, should never have been closed and should be fully open now. They may become a problem for spreading over the colder months like everywhere else, meat packing factories being a good example, and now maybe Melbourne as an example now it is in its Winter.kingstongraham said:
That quote was from the herd immunity days of mid March. The lockdown then came to try and stop the hospitals being overwhelmed. Too late to prevent a lot of the deaths, but enough to stop the economy.coopster_the_1st said:
If we don't get and keep the number of infections low, then clearly we will see another spike at some point, but hopefully with a better understanding of the disease and how to treat it. That is already the case. And hopefully a plan to get kids into schools.
The lockdown loonies have created huge future problems as if we cannot open now in the safer, warmer months we are going to be screwed by their hysteria come the colder months.
The 3 countries you list, and many others all have incredibly high density living, particularly amongst the poorest of society which will contribute hugely to the infection spread.0 -
I did see a report the other day of a study disputing the vitamin D link, or at least that taking supplements did not help.nickice said:
It might have some seasonality but if nobody (or very few people) is immune to it, it's going to spread. Older people in Spain and Italy are often vitamin D deficient because they stay out of the sun.laurentian said:
Really? Brazil?? Mexico??coopster_the_1st said:
I think it is related to climate your genetics are accustomed to ie we Brits don't need as much sun exposure for Vit D as people of African origin.TheBigBean said:
How do you explain the struggles in Mexico, India, Brazil and others if it is all about temperature?coopster_the_1st said:
The schools are fine in the warmer months, should never have been closed and should be fully open now. They may become a problem for spreading over the colder months like everywhere else, meat packing factories being a good example, and now maybe Melbourne as an example now it is in its Winter.kingstongraham said:
That quote was from the herd immunity days of mid March. The lockdown then came to try and stop the hospitals being overwhelmed. Too late to prevent a lot of the deaths, but enough to stop the economy.coopster_the_1st said:
If we don't get and keep the number of infections low, then clearly we will see another spike at some point, but hopefully with a better understanding of the disease and how to treat it. That is already the case. And hopefully a plan to get kids into schools.
The lockdown loonies have created huge future problems as if we cannot open now in the safer, warmer months we are going to be screwed by their hysteria come the colder months.
The 3 countries you list, and many others all have incredibly high density living, particularly amongst the poorest of society which will contribute hugely to the infection spread.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
With regard to the three pubs that have been forced to shut again, cab someone help fill in some timeline blanks?
Saturday - pubs open
Monday - pubs announce they have to close again due to a customer or customers reporting they have tested positive.
Now, as I understand it, test results take 24/48 hours to come through.
So, the infected customers, had they undergone tests before they went to the pub and were awaiting results, or did they have tests booked for Sunday and got their results within 24 hours?
Either way, it seems to me that you have to ask why they went to the pub on Saturday as they were either awaiting a test result (in which case they must be open to being sued), or were feeling unwell already.
Am I wrong in my assumptions?
Surprised more hasn't been publicised about this tbh.0 -
Could just be that someone who had been to the pub then reported symptoms and test results are pending.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
May well be so, given the media's record of jumping the gun , but they didn't report it as such.rjsterry said:Could just be that someone who had been to the pub then reported symptoms and test results are pending.
Reading the BBC, while the headline can be described as misleading, it appears that it is partially true.
Coronavirus: Three England pubs close after positive tests
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-53315702
A number of pubs in England have shut after customers tested positive for coronavirus.
However, upon reading on we find there were two positive customer tests:
In Batley, West Yorkshire, the Fox and Hounds said a customer had phoned to say they had tested positive for coronavirus.
https://www.facebook.com/permalink.php?story_fbid=560922697923336&id=277800149568927
Plus a third positive in a family bubble."Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0
