The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
-
A future wave, possibly coinciding with high hospital occupancy such as winter flu or norovirus outbreaks. It may also be that the likes of the UK, Italy, Spain and France who have been hit hard this time around end up with far fewer deaths in secondary waves as those most at risk died in the first wave and a significantly higher proportion of the populations have been exposed to the virus due to that delay in the original response. It's hopeful thinking but the point is we won't know until there's a cure, vaccination or herd immunity. I could make a load of sporting analogies but ultimately it isn't a competition and it's hard to think of 4,000 deaths being thought of as in some way winning.rick_chasey said:
What do you think would happen for the UK to end up with fewer deaths than Germany, given it's a good 10k ahead currently.Dorset_Boy said:I'm not against the lockdown concept, and totally agree that it reduces the infection in the short term, and keeping hospitalisations within health service capacity has to save lives / reduce deaths from Covid-19.
However if the only end game is herd immunity, vaccination and anti-virals, then the total death tolls surely become reliant on when those three factors can be met / achieved?
We currently can have no idea of the long term impact. (I hope it also reduces the long term impact.)
In terms of the economic consequences, it's worth pointing out that the UK and Germany hit 50 deaths at more or less the same time and Germany is already confident enough that it in ontop of infections that it is beginning to open up some shops.0 -
Straw poll - When do people who are currently working from home expecting to return to working in an office?0
-
Out of interest Rick, has your opinion changed from what it was at the start of this Pandemic?rick_chasey said:
I have always wondered with these things how much gov'ts can actually do. My instinct, which is certainly not often right, is to think all this shutting down is king cnut trying to hold back the sea anyway.surrey_commuter said:
Exactly - had a very frustrating call with my parents who are following Govt advice to carry on despite being in their 80s and her with an underlying heart conditionfocuszing723 said:
If you are or have a family member in the vulnerable group, not containing the spread will greatly increase your chance of getting the virus (delay it to the summer). I can understand the herd immunity theory but for many people in this group it will be too late.Pross said:I don't understand the criticism of the UK Government for not taking the same action as other countries. Is there anything that suggests the actions in China and Italy have helped? It feels too early to me to judge the most effective way of dealing with it and countries taking different approaches will hopefully help everyone learn the most effective way of dealing with any future similar outbreaks.
0 -
Yes, massively!focuszing723 said:
Out of interest Rick, has your opinion changed from what it was at the start of this Pandemic?rick_chasey said:
I have always wondered with these things how much gov'ts can actually do. My instinct, which is certainly not often right, is to think all this shutting down is king cnut trying to hold back the sea anyway.surrey_commuter said:
Exactly - had a very frustrating call with my parents who are following Govt advice to carry on despite being in their 80s and her with an underlying heart conditionfocuszing723 said:
If you are or have a family member in the vulnerable group, not containing the spread will greatly increase your chance of getting the virus (delay it to the summer). I can understand the herd immunity theory but for many people in this group it will be too late.Pross said:I don't understand the criticism of the UK Government for not taking the same action as other countries. Is there anything that suggests the actions in China and Italy have helped? It feels too early to me to judge the most effective way of dealing with it and countries taking different approaches will hopefully help everyone learn the most effective way of dealing with any future similar outbreaks.
0 -
I sure many peoples have, especially in the West.0
-
Not that it's interesting but you can see my gradual sink from optimism for the UK approach to downright anger.0
-
No idea really. If I had to guess the gov will probably continue to encourage home working where possible all year.kingstongraham said:Straw poll - When do people who are currently working from home expecting to return to working in an office?
Maybe go in a couple of times a week from... July? Stab in the dark. You?- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
I have visions of the Sagan hulk lol.rick_chasey said:Not that it's interesting but you can see my gradual sink from optimism for the UK approach to downright anger.
0 -
This from an unexpected source is a rather excellent document on a possible sustainable exit strategy: https://institute.global/sites/default/files/inline-files/A Sustainable Exit Strategy, Managing Uncertainty Minimising Harm.pdf0
-
This is like groundhog day.
If we assume the table of percentage infections is anywhere close to true (accept it won’t be)
Germany have had only 1% infected as opposed to Uk 4%.
If no vaccine comes and no material changes in mortality rates occur, Germany will experience as many deaths as UK by the time herd immunity is reached. (Caveats for demographics)
There is a gamble whichever side of the argument you are on.
La la la, can’t hear you!!!!!!0 -
Late autumn for me.kingstongraham said:Straw poll - When do people who are currently working from home expecting to return to working in an office?
I think some other office roles where WFH is not an easy option August.0 -
I expect occasional visits in the next month or so, but it's the site visits that require more thought on how we can do them safely.kingstongraham said:Straw poll - When do people who are currently working from home expecting to return to working in an office?
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
If we are to continue flogging the cycling analogy, then I think Sweden have decided to pursue a career in the kilo on the track, whereas most other Western countries have gone for targeting the grand tours. At the moment its not clear which has the bigger prize pot.
In the GC stakes, the Germans appear to have a commanding lead in the GC and just like how Zwift racing has power ups, competitive pandemics have boosts of improved treatment and general scientific knowledge. Theese boosts could make Germany's lead impossible to eat into.
Otoh all it takes is a bit of bad luck, a puncture or a super spreader and the podium could come back into play for many countries.
I'll stop now.0 -
https://esb.nu/blog/20059695/we-kunnen-nu-gaan-rekenen-aan-corona
I believe from what I have read from others that this is a 4000 case study Dutch serology test.
Link here that summarises the results:
4th column is Chance of hospitalisation
5th column is Chance of IC admission
From what I understand from this, C19 is a lot less severe than originally thought.
Probably the most important bit from this:
So Corona adds extra risk of death. But you shouldn't just add the risks of corona and "normal" together. After all, anyone who dies from corona can no longer die from another illness or from an accident. We can only determine the total mortality probability this year afterwards.
The chance of dying from corona is smaller than the "normal" chance of dying. In that sense, the risks of corona can be called low, especially for people under 60. And under 50, the chance of IC admission is also very small, and so the potential burden on the ICs from that group is also small.
I suspect this report is too positive for our Dutch gloomster for him, even if it is producted by his native country.0 -
Yep, the immunity base grows.morstar said:This is like groundhog day.
If we assume the table of percentage infections is anywhere close to true (accept it won’t be)
Germany have had only 1% infected as opposed to Uk 4%.
If no vaccine comes and no material changes in mortality rates occur, Germany will experience as many deaths as UK by the time herd immunity is reached. (Caveats for demographics)
There is a gamble whichever side of the argument you are on.
La la la, can’t hear you!!!!!!0 -
As I've read on the internet recently. The spread of Coronavirus in the UK is caused by two main factors.
1. The population of the UK is dense.
2. The population of the UK is dense.
This article seems to verify that.
https://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/18390267.visitors-lincolnshire-sent-packing-dorset-beauty-spot/Always be yourself, unless you can be Aaron Rodgers....Then always be Aaron Rodgers.0 -
This what the mortality rates COULD look like.
Taking extensive action now is no guarantee of a better outcome.
Does that help?
Series 2 is Germany, Series 1 UK.2 -
Obviously multiple cycles due to lockdown.0
-
We've got quite a bit of space so I would have thought as soon as the Government eases its advice. Based on other countries, my guess would be late May early June. I tend to work from home regularly anyway but I suspect once we go back I'll be expected to show my face a bit for appearances sake.kingstongraham said:Straw poll - When do people who are currently working from home expecting to return to working in an office?
0 -
It wasn't gradual. You went from one day saying you weren't quite sure what to make of it to the next day being like the people who used to hang around wearing 'the end of the world is nigh' on a sandwich board!rick_chasey said:Not that it's interesting but you can see my gradual sink from optimism for the UK approach to downright anger.
1 -
Slight danger that UK has undercooked the herd immunity by exposure approach but overcooked the buying time approach of Germany.morstar said:
This what the mortality rates COULD look like.
Taking extensive action now is no guarantee of a better outcome.
Does that help?
Series 2 is Germany, Series 1 UK.0 -
Electric planes do not have the capacity of a train running multiple times an hour. People and the media keep getting too focused on the "high speed" element. HS2 is all about capacity, not speed.First.Aspect said:
This just smacks of being in a hole, furiously digging.rjsterry said:
The last reported direct cost of cancellation was £12bn on top of £7.5bn already spent. That was back in January before C19 was being considered. That's obviously less than the projected final cost, but the point is that would be the best part of £20bn for nothing as opposed to £100bn of something which has some asset value and at least stands a chance of generating some revenue.surrey_commuter said:
Genuine question - why is it more expensive to cancel?rjsterry said:
Because HS2 has already started being built. They've CPed the land. Demolished buildings. It's past the point of being more expensive to cancel than go forward. Plus Johnson loves a bit of transport infrastructure so I think this train has left the station.focuszing723 said:
That couldn't be a better analogy for me. The time HS2 is complete, for all we know the fast lane could turn into a 10 metre apart autonomous vehicle congestion buster.First.Aspect said:
Yes. For example I can immediately see that stimulating the economy by building a white elephant isn't the way to go.rick_chasey said:Yeah sorry First, you operate on a higher plane to me.
Canals, we need more canals. Much better than moving goods by pack horse. Lots of navvies would get jobs in the meantime.
Why not put the money into smaller projects dispersed around the country as already mentioned.
I always think the snake oil purveyors of these pet projects rush to get to this mythical point
What are the odds of there being electric regional aeroplanes by the time it is finished, rendering it an instant Caledonian Canal?
Okay, not realistic for the important line between Birmingham and London that will drive property prices up in the Midlands and save commuters 8 minutes a day, but for more remote routes such as to, say Manchester, Leeds or Glasgow, high speed rail for the UK will be obsolete before it is built.
Out of curiosity, what is the value of the land that the government now owns, and is it factored into those figures? Are the other potential land uses factored in? Or do those figures just assume that the government would shrug its shoulders and turn all the land over to grazing?0 -
It's a good point, but how many electric planes could be bought for a hundred billion which can take people to any airport in the Country? Or just buy enough for demand and add when required.elbowloh said:
Electric planes do not have the capacity of a train running multiple times an hour. People and the media keep getting too focused on the "high speed" element. HS2 is all about capacity, not speed.First.Aspect said:
This just smacks of being in a hole, furiously digging.rjsterry said:
The last reported direct cost of cancellation was £12bn on top of £7.5bn already spent. That was back in January before C19 was being considered. That's obviously less than the projected final cost, but the point is that would be the best part of £20bn for nothing as opposed to £100bn of something which has some asset value and at least stands a chance of generating some revenue.surrey_commuter said:
Genuine question - why is it more expensive to cancel?rjsterry said:
Because HS2 has already started being built. They've CPed the land. Demolished buildings. It's past the point of being more expensive to cancel than go forward. Plus Johnson loves a bit of transport infrastructure so I think this train has left the station.focuszing723 said:
That couldn't be a better analogy for me. The time HS2 is complete, for all we know the fast lane could turn into a 10 metre apart autonomous vehicle congestion buster.First.Aspect said:
Yes. For example I can immediately see that stimulating the economy by building a white elephant isn't the way to go.rick_chasey said:Yeah sorry First, you operate on a higher plane to me.
Canals, we need more canals. Much better than moving goods by pack horse. Lots of navvies would get jobs in the meantime.
Why not put the money into smaller projects dispersed around the country as already mentioned.
I always think the snake oil purveyors of these pet projects rush to get to this mythical point
What are the odds of there being electric regional aeroplanes by the time it is finished, rendering it an instant Caledonian Canal?
Okay, not realistic for the important line between Birmingham and London that will drive property prices up in the Midlands and save commuters 8 minutes a day, but for more remote routes such as to, say Manchester, Leeds or Glasgow, high speed rail for the UK will be obsolete before it is built.
Out of curiosity, what is the value of the land that the government now owns, and is it factored into those figures? Are the other potential land uses factored in? Or do those figures just assume that the government would shrug its shoulders and turn all the land over to grazing?
That's a hell of a lot of money which could support many public transport problems throughout the Country. Electric buses in Cities and Towns to help with pollution levels...0 -
A new method of testing has been developed by the University of South Wales that will enable results within half an hour using a cheap, portable device. Should be available in hospitals and care homes in the next few weeks. Not an anti-body test but should help minimise spread and quickly identify potential contact.0
-
Does it definitely work? We heard this before about a Cambridge one, and then nothing happened.Pross said:A new method of testing has been developed by the University of South Wales that will enable results within half an hour using a cheap, portable device. Should be available in hospitals and care homes in the next few weeks. Not an anti-body test but should help minimise spread and quickly identify potential contact.
0 -
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0
-
The BBC Wales report didn't cover that but they were interviewing those working on it directly and there weren't any caveats. From my experience academics are usually keen to downplay breakthrough reports. Let's hope it does though. Still need a reliable anti-body test though.TheBigBean said:
Does it definitely work? We heard this before about a Cambridge one, and then nothing happened.Pross said:A new method of testing has been developed by the University of South Wales that will enable results within half an hour using a cheap, portable device. Should be available in hospitals and care homes in the next few weeks. Not an anti-body test but should help minimise spread and quickly identify potential contact.
0 -
Great to hear, hope the trials work out fine.Pross said:
The BBC Wales report didn't cover that but they were interviewing those working on it directly and there weren't any caveats. From my experience academics are usually keen to downplay breakthrough reports. Let's hope it does though. Still need a reliable anti-body test though.TheBigBean said:
Does it definitely work? We heard this before about a Cambridge one, and then nothing happened.Pross said:A new method of testing has been developed by the University of South Wales that will enable results within half an hour using a cheap, portable device. Should be available in hospitals and care homes in the next few weeks. Not an anti-body test but should help minimise spread and quickly identify potential contact.
0 -
That does sound bloody cheap. It's a shame it's not relative at the pumps with all the tax.tailwindhome said:0 -
Genuine question, given the deaths in the U.K. are so much higher than some other countries and there are few that are higher, why are you all so reluctant to call the approach thus far a failure?
When you read about the indecision, the lack of preparation, the missing PPE, do you all brush that by?
0
