The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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Alternatively, had those panned out as feared it may have highlighted that our planning hadn't been up to scratch then and the reason we are getting hit badly now is that the preparations we put in place aren't as effective as we had thought. It's a bit like building flood defences only to find we have a storm that is worse than we had predicted.rjsterry said:
At the time of each, we prepared as though they were going to hit us. I think it's possibly true that the results of those outbreaks had lulled us into a false sense of security.Stevo_666 said:
The history of these types of infections our lifetime is that they never escaped the region where they started, or did not have a massive effect if they did. The only exception is this one.focuszing723 said:
What were other Western Countries doing at this time, who managed to escape Sar/Mers?surrey_commuter said:
If only they had access to a TV or knew people in Asia they would not have needed hindsight.focuszing723 said:I'm sure most governments would have thought it would end akin to Sar/Mers towards the beginning of the year. Hindsight > Hindsight > Hindsight.
When China locked down Wuhan and built a hospital in a week it was obvious things were so out of control that it could not be swept under the carpet.
You are just plain wrong with your cries of hindsight.
The Govt chose to let it run and go for herd immunity, a ballsy decision but they shat themselves and tried to contain it. Having done no prep they have been playing catch up ever since and have continued to make bad decision after bad decision0 -
Another interesting development on a treatment, this one re: blood plasma from COVID survivors - was mentioned on the news over the weekend.
https://bbc.co.uk/news/health-52348368"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Yes, but those were predictions, this could have been demonstrated to be complete nonsense at the time, and dangerous nonsense at that, and yet it was still published by the Guardian.rjsterry said:
Simon Jenkins in reactionary nonsense shocker! His Brexit predictions were similarly accurate.TheBigBean said:It's comical looking back at various things written in the media, but this gem from Simon Jenkins stood out at the time as completely reckless and lacking in any form research beyond a bit pub chat. Published on 6th March.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/06/coronavirus-hype-crisis-predictions-sars-swine-flu-panicsWhen hysteria is rife, we might try some history. In 1997 we were told that bird flu could kill millions worldwide. Thankfully, it did not. In 1999 European Union scientists warned that BSE “could kill 500,000 people”. In total, 177 Britons died of vCJD. The first Sars outbreak of 2003 was reported by as having “a 25% chance of killings tens of millions” and being “worse than Aids”. In 2006, another bout of bird flu was declared “the first pandemic of the 21st century”, the scares in 2003, 2004 and 2005 having failed to meet their body counts.
Then, in 2009, pigs replaced birds. The BBC announced that swine flu “could really explode”. The chief medical officer, Liam Donaldson, declared that “65,000 could die”. He spent £560m on a Tamiflu and Relenza stockpile, which soon deteriorated. The Council of Europe’s health committee chairman described the hyping of the 2009 pandemic as “one of the great medical scandals of the century”. These scenarios could have all come to pass of course – but they represent the direr end of the scale of predictions. Should public life really be conducted on a worst-case basis?
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Both Hancock and Britain’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, have struggled to contain the alarm. The government’s action plan pointed out that the virus is highly contagious, but the “great majority” of those who develop symptoms will experience only a “mild-to-moderate but self-limiting illness”. Every medical expert I have heard on the subject is reasonable and calm.
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I think it does a reasonable job of reflecting that those who have been earning a bit more will usually have higher commitments to cover whilst acknowledging that most people will be spending less than they normally would be. There's no perfect solution but it seems a reasonable system for the majority.rick_chasey said:
Have been some criticisms of the 80% pay figure - regressive, more expensive to implement etc.Stevo_666 said:
Overall I think it was pretty good - although in some respects there was probably not a lot of choice.rick_chasey said:
The economic response has been on the whole good. On paper it’s great. Execution has not been perfect but what can you do.Stevo_666 said:
I did tell you it was happening on time. Do you believe me now?surrey_commuter said:
Well as a regular critic of these tossers I tip my hat to them that they have built a website that can cope with hundreds of thousands of businesses making their application and that they ca; process them for the month end.tailwindhome said:72 hrs for anyone who needs the furlough money to pay their staff to get their claim in.
One can only imagine the testing that has taken place to ascertain the capacity that is needed to get everybody on and off the site in 48 hours and despatch the money (virtually) by return
Really disappointed to hear Rishi being the cheerleader to open lockdown early and “run hot” mind...
Some arguments that a basic income would have been more efficient in the circumstances, but i don't know where I fall on that.0 -
i posted about this development a while ago, but I think it was probably filtered out of the thread as a positive development.Stevo_666 said:Another interesting development on a treatment, this one re: blood plasma from COVID survivors - was mentioned on the news over the weekend.
https://bbc.co.uk/news/health-52348368
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I think it does highlight part of the problem though as mentioned previously by myself and others. There was a bit of a cry wolf situation, if you hear people predicting a worldwide pandemic every other year and none of them happen you're less likely to believe the one that turns out to be true. It's obviously a difficult balance though as if there's a genuine chance of an epidemic on the other side of the worlds spreading to us should the media be reporting it early or waiting until there's more certainty that we'll be affected?TheBigBean said:It's comical looking back at various things written in the media, but this gem from Simon Jenkins stood out at the time as completely reckless and lacking in any form research beyond a bit pub chat. Published on 6th March.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/mar/06/coronavirus-hype-crisis-predictions-sars-swine-flu-panicsWhen hysteria is rife, we might try some history. In 1997 we were told that bird flu could kill millions worldwide. Thankfully, it did not. In 1999 European Union scientists warned that BSE “could kill 500,000 people”. In total, 177 Britons died of vCJD. The first Sars outbreak of 2003 was reported by as having “a 25% chance of killings tens of millions” and being “worse than Aids”. In 2006, another bout of bird flu was declared “the first pandemic of the 21st century”, the scares in 2003, 2004 and 2005 having failed to meet their body counts.
Then, in 2009, pigs replaced birds. The BBC announced that swine flu “could really explode”. The chief medical officer, Liam Donaldson, declared that “65,000 could die”. He spent £560m on a Tamiflu and Relenza stockpile, which soon deteriorated. The Council of Europe’s health committee chairman described the hyping of the 2009 pandemic as “one of the great medical scandals of the century”. These scenarios could have all come to pass of course – but they represent the direr end of the scale of predictions. Should public life really be conducted on a worst-case basis?
Coronavirus: the week explained - sign up for our email newsletter
Read more
Both Hancock and Britain’s chief medical officer, Chris Whitty, have struggled to contain the alarm. The government’s action plan pointed out that the virus is highly contagious, but the “great majority” of those who develop symptoms will experience only a “mild-to-moderate but self-limiting illness”. Every medical expert I have heard on the subject is reasonable and calm.0 -
Furlough website seems to be working well.
In NI the website for the £25k grant to hospitality and retail has **** itself twice already
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
I fall through one of those holes myself if it comes to it but I still think it's a pretty good system. I haven't heard much about how any other nations are dealing with that side of things other than the US who seem to have adopted their usual survival of the fittest approach so hard to tell how we're doing on the job protection / income protection side but it will always be a compromise. Offer too much and people will take advantage, too little and it doesn't fulfill its purpose.rick_chasey said:
Jury is still out on that I suspect.Pross said:There's no perfect solution but it seems a reasonable system for the majority.
There are some really big gaping holes in it.0 -
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0
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Stevo_666 said:
Another interesting development on a treatment, this one re: blood plasma from COVID survivors - was mentioned on the news over the weekend.
https://bbc.co.uk/news/health-52348368
Really interesting to see how methods of treatment have evolved very quickly in such a short space of time. Six weeks ago it appeared that ventilator usage would be really high, but evidence from both here and other countries showed how different (and less invasive) approaches (such as CPAP) can be a more effective treatment with less side effects for all but the worst cases. There has been lots of talk of how certain drugs can lessen the symptoms but don't believe there is universal consensus on that yet. Blood plasma treatment is a step forward too.
Hopefully this progress will continue, so if we were to fast forward 2-3 months there'll be more advances in our understanding of the effective treatment route while we await a vaccine.0 -
Good pointsTheBigBean said:
i posted about this development a while ago, but I think it was probably filtered out of the thread as a positive development.Stevo_666 said:Another interesting development on a treatment, this one re: blood plasma from COVID survivors - was mentioned on the news over the weekend.
https://bbc.co.uk/news/health-52348368
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
I am glad the talk about Chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine has receded, when you look at the side effects of these drugs (chiefly the former), on the liver above all, it makes you question whether they should be used other than as a life saving measure... whereas apparently they were tipped as treatment to prevent hospitalisation.kingstonian said:Stevo_666 said:Another interesting development on a treatment, this one re: blood plasma from COVID survivors - was mentioned on the news over the weekend.
https://bbc.co.uk/news/health-52348368
Really interesting to see how methods of treatment have evolved very quickly in such a short space of time. Six weeks ago it appeared that ventilator usage would be really high, but evidence from both here and other countries showed how different (and less invasive) approaches (such as CPAP) can be a more effective treatment with less side effects for all but the worst cases. There has been lots of talk of how certain drugs can lessen the symptoms but don't believe there is universal consensus on that yet. Blood plasma treatment is a step forward too.
Hopefully this progress will continue, so if we were to fast forward 2-3 months there'll be more advances in our understanding of the effective treatment route while we await a vaccine.
Plasma treatment has been used for a while in Italy, anecdotally it is the bees knees, but I guess we'll see if that's trueleft the forum March 20230 -
Agreed - the pace of change and development on this is pretty rapid.kingstonian said:Stevo_666 said:Another interesting development on a treatment, this one re: blood plasma from COVID survivors - was mentioned on the news over the weekend.
https://bbc.co.uk/news/health-52348368
Really interesting to see how methods of treatment have evolved very quickly in such a short space of time. Six weeks ago it appeared that ventilator usage would be really high, but evidence from both here and other countries showed how different (and less invasive) approaches (such as CPAP) can be a more effective treatment with less side effects for all but the worst cases. There has been lots of talk of how certain drugs can lessen the symptoms but don't believe there is universal consensus on that yet. Blood plasma treatment is a step forward too.
Hopefully this progress will continue, so if we were to fast forward 2-3 months there'll be more advances in our understanding of the effective treatment route while we await a vaccine."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Listen to this doctor from a radio interview last night on the medical reason why obesity increases your risk of death and complications if you catch C19 (1h 34m into the show)pangolin said:
Those are US stats right? Google tells me 40% of the US is obese. So again, not hugely over represented in that 48% stat.coopster_the_1st said:pangolin said:
I'll repost this as we're back on obesity. Are there some other stats somewhere that point to obese people being over represented amongst covid victims? Or is it an easy/reassuring thing to believe for a group of reasonably fit cyclists.pangolin said:
Am I missing something or is this just very bad reporting and or science. From the article (talking about patients in critical care):morstar said:“ One thing very visible to us in London intensive care units now is how diabetes, high blood pressure and possibly being a little overweight, seem to be such potent risk factors for having a severe lung illness, perhaps even more so than having an existing lung disease which you would think would be a greater risk," Dr Patel said.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52338101
"more than a third were overweight - with a BMI of 25-30
38% were obese - with a BMI of over 30"
From google:
"The Health Survey for England 2017 estimates that 28.7% of adults in England are obese and a further 35.6% are overweight but not obese."
Sounds like being obese raises your risk slightly but surely that is a surprise to nobody? And overweight folk are just an accurate representation of society.
You've done exactly what the article I was complaining about did by the way. Post a scary number without putting it in context.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000hgz9
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From the ones I know about having lived in, they have these things in place already because their welfare systems are safety nets rather than ways to punish people...Pross said:
I fall through one of those holes myself if it comes to it but I still think it's a pretty good system. I haven't heard much about how any other nations are dealing with that side of things.rick_chasey said:
Jury is still out on that I suspect.Pross said:There's no perfect solution but it seems a reasonable system for the majority.
There are some really big gaping holes in it.
So the number of applicants is bigger but the systems are mostly* the same.
(*Ireland, fore example have increased the amount people get for a number of weeks for example - feel free to jump in at any time here TWH...)
We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
You seriously think that's a positive response from you about getting the website up and running and not crashing as soon as it opens? FFS.rick_chasey said:
The economic response has been on the whole good. On paper it’s great. Execution has not been perfect but what can you do.Stevo_666 said:
I did tell you it was happening on time. Do you believe me now?surrey_commuter said:
Well as a regular critic of these tossers I tip my hat to them that they have built a website that can cope with hundreds of thousands of businesses making their application and that they ca; process them for the month end.tailwindhome said:72 hrs for anyone who needs the furlough money to pay their staff to get their claim in.
One can only imagine the testing that has taken place to ascertain the capacity that is needed to get everybody on and off the site in 48 hours and despatch the money (virtually) by return
Really disappointed to hear Rishi being the cheerleader to open lockdown early and “run hot” mind...
You really need to look at yourself. I understand you can't get out the house, but boy, a decent ride away from home would do you so much good.
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This also shows thst the general underlying health of the population is a factor in the death rate.coopster_the_1st said:
Listen to this doctor from a radio interview last night on the medical reason why obesity increases your risk of death and complications if you catch C19 (1h 34m into the show)pangolin said:
Those are US stats right? Google tells me 40% of the US is obese. So again, not hugely over represented in that 48% stat.coopster_the_1st said:pangolin said:
I'll repost this as we're back on obesity. Are there some other stats somewhere that point to obese people being over represented amongst covid victims? Or is it an easy/reassuring thing to believe for a group of reasonably fit cyclists.pangolin said:
Am I missing something or is this just very bad reporting and or science. From the article (talking about patients in critical care):morstar said:“ One thing very visible to us in London intensive care units now is how diabetes, high blood pressure and possibly being a little overweight, seem to be such potent risk factors for having a severe lung illness, perhaps even more so than having an existing lung disease which you would think would be a greater risk," Dr Patel said.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52338101
"more than a third were overweight - with a BMI of 25-30
38% were obese - with a BMI of over 30"
From google:
"The Health Survey for England 2017 estimates that 28.7% of adults in England are obese and a further 35.6% are overweight but not obese."
Sounds like being obese raises your risk slightly but surely that is a surprise to nobody? And overweight folk are just an accurate representation of society.
You've done exactly what the article I was complaining about did by the way. Post a scary number without putting it in context.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000hgz9"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Oh relax mate, I'm enjoying lockdown more than normal life if I'm honest. Few drawbacks, but on the whole it's great.Dorset_Boy said:
You seriously think that's a positive response from you about getting the website up and running and not crashing as soon as it opens? FFS.rick_chasey said:
The economic response has been on the whole good. On paper it’s great. Execution has not been perfect but what can you do.Stevo_666 said:
I did tell you it was happening on time. Do you believe me now?surrey_commuter said:
Well as a regular critic of these tossers I tip my hat to them that they have built a website that can cope with hundreds of thousands of businesses making their application and that they ca; process them for the month end.tailwindhome said:72 hrs for anyone who needs the furlough money to pay their staff to get their claim in.
One can only imagine the testing that has taken place to ascertain the capacity that is needed to get everybody on and off the site in 48 hours and despatch the money (virtually) by return
Really disappointed to hear Rishi being the cheerleader to open lockdown early and “run hot” mind...
You really need to look at yourself. I understand you can't get out the house, but boy, a decent ride away from home would do you so much good.
That's why I can look at what's going on for what it is.
UK's economic response is one of the best around, albeit the execution if you compare to say, Switzerland, has been mixed, right?
That's just factual. The furlough settup seems to be going well but as per above, there is some reason to think 80% wasn't actually as a good a decision as 100%, and the small loans scheme take up has been a royal mess which they're now in the process of sorting out.0 -
The JRS is a relief for employers so most of the claimants are businesses. How many businesses receive welfare payments?ddraver said:
From the ones I know about having lived in, they have these things in place already because their welfare systems are safety nets rather than ways to punish people...Pross said:
I fall through one of those holes myself if it comes to it but I still think it's a pretty good system. I haven't heard much about how any other nations are dealing with that side of things.rick_chasey said:
Jury is still out on that I suspect.Pross said:There's no perfect solution but it seems a reasonable system for the majority.
There are some really big gaping holes in it.
So the number of applicants is bigger but the systems are mostly* the same.
(*Ireland, fore example have increased the amount people get for a number of weeks for example)"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
The 7 day average turns painfully slowly....but it seems to be turning
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
There are moves to set up a scheme for directors who pay themselves via dividends. Not unreasonably they have prioritised PAYE and then self-employed.Pross said:
I fall through one of those holes myself if it comes to it but I still think it's a pretty good system. I haven't heard much about how any other nations are dealing with that side of things other than the US who seem to have adopted their usual survival of the fittest approach so hard to tell how we're doing on the job protection / income protection side but it will always be a compromise. Offer too much and people will take advantage, too little and it doesn't fulfill its purpose.rick_chasey said:
Jury is still out on that I suspect.Pross said:There's no perfect solution but it seems a reasonable system for the majority.
There are some really big gaping holes in it.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
The government's rebuttal to the Sunday Times piece seems to trying to hit a sweet spot that they were taking the virus seriously at all levels, but that the PM's absence from COBRA meetings isn't in any way remarkable.“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0
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One of the biggest points I picked up on and there were many was that if people with type 2 diabetes switched to a healthy diet diabetes in 50% of them would be in remission within 1 month.Stevo_666 said:
This also shows thst the general underlying health of the population is a factor in the death rate.coopster_the_1st said:
Listen to this doctor from a radio interview last night on the medical reason why obesity increases your risk of death and complications if you catch C19 (1h 34m into the show)pangolin said:
Those are US stats right? Google tells me 40% of the US is obese. So again, not hugely over represented in that 48% stat.coopster_the_1st said:pangolin said:
I'll repost this as we're back on obesity. Are there some other stats somewhere that point to obese people being over represented amongst covid victims? Or is it an easy/reassuring thing to believe for a group of reasonably fit cyclists.pangolin said:
Am I missing something or is this just very bad reporting and or science. From the article (talking about patients in critical care):morstar said:“ One thing very visible to us in London intensive care units now is how diabetes, high blood pressure and possibly being a little overweight, seem to be such potent risk factors for having a severe lung illness, perhaps even more so than having an existing lung disease which you would think would be a greater risk," Dr Patel said.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52338101
"more than a third were overweight - with a BMI of 25-30
38% were obese - with a BMI of over 30"
From google:
"The Health Survey for England 2017 estimates that 28.7% of adults in England are obese and a further 35.6% are overweight but not obese."
Sounds like being obese raises your risk slightly but surely that is a surprise to nobody? And overweight folk are just an accurate representation of society.
You've done exactly what the article I was complaining about did by the way. Post a scary number without putting it in context.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000hgz9
It's why I believe the US will have the worst death rate of first world nations once the virus has blown through. Advanced medicine and a great healthcare system means that medicine is keeping people alive longer despite hugely unhealthy lifestyle choices.
The same applies to the UK regarding medicine and our medical system and many people choosing unhealthy lifestyle choices which is why we will experience a high death rate.
If anything good will come out of this it will be that 'Health is Wealth' as I think actual wealth is going to be plundered to pay for this
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Yes. Having read them, there seem to be a mixture of a few easy hits - Aha, the meeting was on a Thursday, not a Friday, so you are WRONG! - some valid rebuttals and some waffle where they felt that they had to put something down, but didn't have much of substance.tailwindhome said:The government's rebuttal to the Sunday Times piece seems to trying to hit a sweet spot that they were taking the virus seriously at all levels, but that the PM's absence from COBRA meetings isn't in any way remarkable.
Of course life would be a lot easier if the Vote Leave gang didn't have such a reputation.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
He does seem to disappear and re-appear like the Cheshire Cat but his lack of visibility when things first started kicking off did seem to reinforce the view that it wasn't being taken seriously at the highest level. Someone presumably thought he was best kept away from things which is a worrying indictment on how he's perceived by his own people!tailwindhome said:The government's rebuttal to the Sunday Times piece seems to trying to hit a sweet spot that they were taking the virus seriously at all levels, but that the PM's absence from COBRA meetings isn't in any way remarkable.
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True, and most would willingly swapping W for H. That said, as @nickice pointed out, treatment of type 2 diabetes is not necessarily as straightforward as switch to a healthy diet (although of course that helps).coopster_the_1st said:
One of the biggest points I picked up on and there were many was that if people with type 2 diabetes switched to a healthy diet diabetes in 50% of them would be in remission within 1 month.Stevo_666 said:
This also shows thst the general underlying health of the population is a factor in the death rate.coopster_the_1st said:
Listen to this doctor from a radio interview last night on the medical reason why obesity increases your risk of death and complications if you catch C19 (1h 34m into the show)pangolin said:
Those are US stats right? Google tells me 40% of the US is obese. So again, not hugely over represented in that 48% stat.coopster_the_1st said:pangolin said:
I'll repost this as we're back on obesity. Are there some other stats somewhere that point to obese people being over represented amongst covid victims? Or is it an easy/reassuring thing to believe for a group of reasonably fit cyclists.pangolin said:
Am I missing something or is this just very bad reporting and or science. From the article (talking about patients in critical care):morstar said:“ One thing very visible to us in London intensive care units now is how diabetes, high blood pressure and possibly being a little overweight, seem to be such potent risk factors for having a severe lung illness, perhaps even more so than having an existing lung disease which you would think would be a greater risk," Dr Patel said.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52338101
"more than a third were overweight - with a BMI of 25-30
38% were obese - with a BMI of over 30"
From google:
"The Health Survey for England 2017 estimates that 28.7% of adults in England are obese and a further 35.6% are overweight but not obese."
Sounds like being obese raises your risk slightly but surely that is a surprise to nobody? And overweight folk are just an accurate representation of society.
You've done exactly what the article I was complaining about did by the way. Post a scary number without putting it in context.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000hgz9
It's why I believe the US will have the worst death rate of first world nations once the virus has blown through. Advanced medicine and a great healthcare system means that medicine is keeping people alive longer despite hugely unhealthy lifestyle choices.
The same applies to the UK regarding medicine and our medical system and many people choosing unhealthy lifestyle choices which is why we will experience a high death rate.
If anything good will come out of this it will be that 'Health is Wealth' as I think actual wealth is going to be plundered to pay for this1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I think you're right about the US, although clearly while this is significant there will be other factors involved (as well as the obvious one, age, which you can argue is a key determinant of absolute underlying health).coopster_the_1st said:
One of the biggest points I picked up on and there were many was that if people with type 2 diabetes switched to a healthy diet diabetes in 50% of them would be in remission within 1 month.Stevo_666 said:
This also shows thst the general underlying health of the population is a factor in the death rate.coopster_the_1st said:
Listen to this doctor from a radio interview last night on the medical reason why obesity increases your risk of death and complications if you catch C19 (1h 34m into the show)pangolin said:
Those are US stats right? Google tells me 40% of the US is obese. So again, not hugely over represented in that 48% stat.coopster_the_1st said:pangolin said:
I'll repost this as we're back on obesity. Are there some other stats somewhere that point to obese people being over represented amongst covid victims? Or is it an easy/reassuring thing to believe for a group of reasonably fit cyclists.pangolin said:
Am I missing something or is this just very bad reporting and or science. From the article (talking about patients in critical care):morstar said:“ One thing very visible to us in London intensive care units now is how diabetes, high blood pressure and possibly being a little overweight, seem to be such potent risk factors for having a severe lung illness, perhaps even more so than having an existing lung disease which you would think would be a greater risk," Dr Patel said.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52338101
"more than a third were overweight - with a BMI of 25-30
38% were obese - with a BMI of over 30"
From google:
"The Health Survey for England 2017 estimates that 28.7% of adults in England are obese and a further 35.6% are overweight but not obese."
Sounds like being obese raises your risk slightly but surely that is a surprise to nobody? And overweight folk are just an accurate representation of society.
You've done exactly what the article I was complaining about did by the way. Post a scary number without putting it in context.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000hgz9
It's why I believe the US will have the worst death rate of first world nations once the virus has blown through. Advanced medicine and a great healthcare system means that medicine is keeping people alive longer despite hugely unhealthy lifestyle choices.
The same applies to the UK regarding medicine and our medical system and many people choosing unhealthy lifestyle choices which is why we will experience a high death rate.
If anything good will come out of this it will be that 'Health is Wealth' as I think actual wealth is going to be plundered to pay for this
Also agree with your point about timing - that the point at which you can only properly compare these is at the end, rather than taking snapshot of countries at different stages and with different strategies to delay the spread."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]1 -
Yeah. I would try and defend Johnson on this with the hindsight mantra, but to be fair he was absent during the floods too. I don't think it's a stretch to say if Brexit hadn't been the salient agenda, the reaction/preparation for Covid19 may have been more forthcoming.Pross said:
He does seem to disappear and re-appear like the Cheshire Cat but his lack of visibility when things first started kicking off did seem to reinforce the view that it wasn't being taken seriously at the highest level. Someone presumably thought he was best kept away from things which is a worrying indictment on how he's perceived by his own people!tailwindhome said:The government's rebuttal to the Sunday Times piece seems to trying to hit a sweet spot that they were taking the virus seriously at all levels, but that the PM's absence from COBRA meetings isn't in any way remarkable.
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Notwithstanding that a full assessment cannot be made until after we have all the data (or as much as there is) I don't think it's unreasonable to make provisional comments on where we are so far. If we can see things that seem to be effective right now, we shouldn't thumb our noses at them just because we don't know the final result.Stevo_666 said:
I think you're right about the US, although clearly while this is significant there will be other factors involved (as well as the obvious one, age, which you can argue is a key determinant of absolute underlying health).coopster_the_1st said:
One of the biggest points I picked up on and there were many was that if people with type 2 diabetes switched to a healthy diet diabetes in 50% of them would be in remission within 1 month.Stevo_666 said:
This also shows thst the general underlying health of the population is a factor in the death rate.coopster_the_1st said:
Listen to this doctor from a radio interview last night on the medical reason why obesity increases your risk of death and complications if you catch C19 (1h 34m into the show)pangolin said:
Those are US stats right? Google tells me 40% of the US is obese. So again, not hugely over represented in that 48% stat.coopster_the_1st said:pangolin said:
I'll repost this as we're back on obesity. Are there some other stats somewhere that point to obese people being over represented amongst covid victims? Or is it an easy/reassuring thing to believe for a group of reasonably fit cyclists.pangolin said:
Am I missing something or is this just very bad reporting and or science. From the article (talking about patients in critical care):morstar said:“ One thing very visible to us in London intensive care units now is how diabetes, high blood pressure and possibly being a little overweight, seem to be such potent risk factors for having a severe lung illness, perhaps even more so than having an existing lung disease which you would think would be a greater risk," Dr Patel said.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52338101
"more than a third were overweight - with a BMI of 25-30
38% were obese - with a BMI of over 30"
From google:
"The Health Survey for England 2017 estimates that 28.7% of adults in England are obese and a further 35.6% are overweight but not obese."
Sounds like being obese raises your risk slightly but surely that is a surprise to nobody? And overweight folk are just an accurate representation of society.
You've done exactly what the article I was complaining about did by the way. Post a scary number without putting it in context.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m000hgz9
It's why I believe the US will have the worst death rate of first world nations once the virus has blown through. Advanced medicine and a great healthcare system means that medicine is keeping people alive longer despite hugely unhealthy lifestyle choices.
The same applies to the UK regarding medicine and our medical system and many people choosing unhealthy lifestyle choices which is why we will experience a high death rate.
If anything good will come out of this it will be that 'Health is Wealth' as I think actual wealth is going to be plundered to pay for this
Also agree with your point about timing - that the point at which you can only properly compare these is at the end, rather than taking snapshot of countries at different stages and with different strategies to delay the spread.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
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