The big Coronavirus thread
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What it will do is detonate the high yield market in the states and that will ripple.
A lot of the drillers in the states are highly leveraged hence the need to keep drilling and drilling.0 -
Not at all because it is unrelated to what had already happened. Previously it was all hands to the pumps to stop us from sinking. Going forward it's more like balancing a spoon on your finger. Different problems different solution.rick_chasey said:
How gutted were you it was a criterion in Britain’s exit conditions?
Might want to refrain from calling people who annoy you autistic, or autistic like, mind.
There is no doubt that they were too preoppupied with whether or not they could get Big Ben to bong to notice the wall of water that a few boffins were politely telling them about. But that wasn't a problem with testing it was a problem of not listening to experts.
I use the word autistic in the sense of being fixated on something beyond all reach of reason. By brother is autistic and remains of the view that he could commute by horseback (along a dual carriageway) if (a) he had a horse and (b) he had a job.0 -
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Why do we think this Govt sees no value in testing? I keep reading private labs (pharma + unis etc) have enough capacity to put Germany to shame but Govt say no to them.
Way I see it is Germans will keep testing as they ease lockdown and will be able to swiftly see negative effects of different measures.0 -
Fracking isn't new. Fracking underneath new builds in Lytham St Anne's is new. To simplify, once you have fracked the idea is that stuff come out, on its own.rick_chasey said:0 -
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When I watched 'Deepwater Horizon' I must admit it did look a little tricky.ddraver said:It's very hard to 'stop' producing a well. All they can really do is not drill any new ones.
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rick_chasey said:
When did I say it’s new?
You post suggests that hydrocarbon production generally and fracking were somehow distinct. They are if you limit your reading to the FT and Spectator I suppose.
I'm getting thumb fatigue.0 -
It’s not that. I covered physical commodity trading and upstream for 3 years so I’m not entirely clueless.First.Aspect said:
You post suggests that hydrocarbon production generally and fracking were somehow distinct. They are if you limit your reading to the FT and Spectator I suppose.
I'm getting thumb fatigue.
I just thought that the US drillers, who by and large tend to be smaller scale frackers and not more conventional drillers found it easier to turn their wells on and off than say your monster Saudi wells where you lose a chunk of your oil if you shut it.
I know I’m annoying but don’t be a d!ck.0 -
So did you just say, paraphrasing, that you are a dick don't be like you?rick_chasey said:
I just thought that the US drillers, who by and large tend to be smaller scale frackers and not more conventional drillers found it easier to turn their wells on and off than say your monster Saudi wells where you lose a chunk of your oil if you shut it.
I know I’m annoying but don’t be a d!ck.
In answer to your question, I honestly don't know, but I'd have thought it is just a matter of scale but the principles are the same.0 -
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rick_chasey said:
Wonderful insight.
The first part of wisdom is, "I don't know".rick_chasey said:Wonderful insight.
I do have a reasonable amount of insight into nonfinancial sciency stuff if you are ever interested.
I should warn you that mostly my insight, such as it is, falls somewhere in the grey area between "nothing to see here" and "henny penny the sky has fallen in" so it's not really of much value here.
Instead I am just focussing on "project 200" which is to try to raise money for coronovirus research by getting this thread to 200 pages.0 -
I think that may well prove to be quite accurate KG.kingstongraham said:I don't see why those of us who can work from home would go back to office based this year. Those who can't be home based get the extra space in the office. Wearing masks.
When is there likely to be any gigs, nightclubs or vertical drinking establishments generally? I just can't see it at all while there's a desire to restrict transmission.
I have a feeling the office situation may be a bit more mixed than that, in terms of many people may work from home a lot more rather than exclusively - especially if there is plenty of space in the office as a result of others doing the same. I may do something like that, it will probably more important to avoid public transport (work in London) by a mixture of cycling and driving."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Of course, but nobody has demostrated they have a crystal ball yet. And as we know, this thing is very transmissible plus there is no vaccine or totally effective cure in sight, so it is not an unreasonable or illogical view that this is principally a timing issue.rjsterry said:
More relevantly, with all this talk of going back to the office, that's a real proposition in Germany, now. And with a lower and more accurately measured infection rate they are better placed to do that without inadvertently kicking off another spike.
Let's see what happens in Germany, as they don't have a crystal ball either."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Well, they drill lots of wells and produce them very quickly (before the fractures close again) so it takes less time for the well to "run out" as it were and they need to drill another one a few km away.rick_chasey said:
A 'traditional' oil or gas well you would hope would flow for years (It's complicated...)
As always, this is easier onshore rather than offshore but essentially if you "kill the well" for any length of time, things start to collapse in the well and so you can't just open it up again. So you're giving up on many 10 to 100's of millions of dollars of investment
Plus offshore, there's a bloody great rig on top of it which takes a million* a day to run and wouldn't react well to being allowed to float on it's own in the North Sea for example...*Again, complicated, but that's the figure usually quotedWe're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
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It sounds like he's read 1984 too many times.0
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Some people on here sound like they've seen re-runs of '28 Days Later' too many times.focuszing723 said:It sounds like he's read 1984 too many times.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Yes. With 6 family members over 70 I am acutely aware of their indefinite isolation. If we had got our act together sooner we might have been able to start releasing the lockdown sooner.morstar said:
Sweden could be out the other end by early summer.
Suicides are up. That is a fact. Other problems anticipated.
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/health-coronavirus-usa-cost/
I personally have seen only minor changes to my life In lockdown but am already feeling frustration creeping in.
Have you considered a lot of older people value quality of life over prolonging life at all costs? I can understand why some may think I’d rather enjoy the year than spend it in hiding. Especially if you know you realistically only have a few years of good health remaining.
I don't think any of them are remotely ready to throw in the towel. The idea that beyond 70 you are really just waiting to die is pretty disgusting.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
WTAF is Downing Street playing at briefing against it's own health minister in the middle of a health crisis.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
rjsterry said:
WTAF is Downing Street playing at briefing against it's own health minister in the middle of a health crisis.
Probably not unconnected to a faction in the cabinet that wants to open things up sooner than later.0 -
Stevo_666 said:
Anyone who doesn't get that must be a bit thick, or desperate not to understand.
We all get that the graph shows that even in the absence of a vaccine that the 'German' outcome is better?
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
I hardly said that.rjsterry said:
At least you are engaging with the points unlike Rick but you keep really skewing them in order to counter.
You do realise that more and more people will find lockdown repressive and damaging the longer it goes on.
Also, Germany releasing their lockdown involves more people dying.0 -
We're just going to keep doing the 'briefing different plans every day until we find one that sticks' strategy?
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Say we opened up again and went for herd immunity as quickly as possible. How do we protect the vulnerable? How do we get cancer patients their treatment restarted safely?0
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So the calculus there is how many extra people die for people to feel less repressed vs doing the optimum process re low deaths?morstar said:
At least you are engaging with the points unlike Rick but you keep really skewing them in order to counter.
You do realise that more and more people will find lockdown repressive and damaging the longer it goes on.
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Care to put a number on that?0 -
Hospitals would be overwhelmed in short order.kingstongraham said:Say we opened up again and went for herd immunity as quickly as possible. How do we protect the vulnerable? How do we get cancer patients their treatment restarted safely?
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Even if we partially open up and go for herd immunity as quickly as possible without overwhelming the hospitals (however that could be done) - How do we protect the vulnerable? How do we get cancer patients their treatment restarted safely?rick_chasey said:0