The big Coronavirus thread
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My daughter is walking the dog as darkness falls due to the busyness of local trails at the moment.Pross said:
Just did my first proper run since lockdown. It was ridiculous, there must have been ten times the amount of people I would normally see whilst running that route. Most were walking, most completely oblivious to the world outside their own little bubble. If they want to walk 2 abreast on a path that can just about accommodate 3 people no virus is going to stop them and if 90% of people are on the right hand side of the path why follow the crowd, be individual and walk on the right instead.morstar said:Fark me there’s a lot of cyclists about. Never seen anything like it outside of a mass participation event.
Sharing the roads with boy racers mind.
Safe to say that leisure users have taken over the roads.
I might have to stick to just running around the streets or up into the country lanes to take my chances with the cars until this is over and they are back to spending their free time in front of Netflix with a giant pizza.
I have been walking early in the morning to try and beat the rush. It is all most unusual.
However, I’m not sure I can disapprove of Netflix and pizza.
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It would be a good thing if people stick at it once lockdown is over but I just don't see it. In the meantime a bit more awareness of the world around them would be welcome.0
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Seems like he's obviously been fed something that is worse than what happened in reality, but that rebuttal thread is interesting. I'm in favour of the government trying everything to get the equipment needed, and possibly wasting people's time and money.coopster_the_1st said:
The FT are gaining quite a reputation for creating fake news about the actions of this government. The BBC were caught doing the same on Friday.Stevo_666 said:
In general there needs to be more rebuttal of negative claims spread around on the internet. I'm proud to say we are doing our part here in Cake Stoprick_chasey said:
So it seemed the thread was pertinent enough for the govt to post its own response.Pross said:
Yes but why are you focussing on that when you appeared to completely ignore when someone posted the story that a brand new product, which will hopefully minimise the need for much more intrusive ventilators, has been approved for use?rick_chasey said:
No the one I posted earlier today.Pross said:
What thread? Is it the one about the new UCL / Mercedes / Airbus product that has been designed and approved for use within weeks and will reduce the need for traditional ventilators? Found that quite positive to be honest.rick_chasey said:That ventilator thread is absolutely damning.
Do you still not understand why people criticise your negativity?
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/response-to-ft-article-and-twitter-thread-by-peter-foster
But is this really a rebuttal of this claim?
Claim:
Two out of the UK’s three main ventilator makers told the Financial Times their contact with government officials only began in mid-March, around the same time as the general appeal.
Response:
Throughout this public health emergency, the NHS has always had spare ventilator capacity for patients. The NHS has been liaising with suppliers since February and the Ventilator Challenge has involved work with manufacturers around the clock to increase ventilator supply.
Designing, manufacturing and gaining regulatory approval for ventilators usually takes years. That so much progress has been made in such a short time underlines the incredible efforts made by industry. The first devices from the Ventilator Challenge have already received regulatory approval and been delivered to the NHS frontline. Over the past six weeks the government has increased ventilator capacity by thousands. This means that 10,600 ventilators are now available to NHS patients across the country, with hundreds being delivered each week and many more on order.0 -
Pross said:
Just did my first proper run since lockdown. It was ridiculous, there must have been ten times the amount of people I would normally see whilst running that route. Most were walking, most completely oblivious to the world outside their own little bubble. If they want to walk 2 abreast on a path that can just about accommodate 3 people no virus is going to stop them and if 90% of people are on the right hand side of the path why follow the crowd, be individual and walk on the right instead.morstar said:Fark me there’s a lot of cyclists about. Never seen anything like it outside of a mass participation event.
Sharing the roads with boy racers mind.
Safe to say that leisure users have taken over the roads.
I might have to stick to just running around the streets or up into the country lanes to take my chances with the cars until this is over and they are back to spending their free time in front of Netflix with a giant pizza.
Just go for a short drive to somewhere quieter - Genesis Croix de Fer
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Rick those 2 charts aren't even comparing the same milestones. One talks about flights, other doesn't. One talks about partial lockdown with work, other doesn't.
Is 'full lockdown' the same for these 2 countries?
I get there is likely a correlation between lockdown timing and no of cases but posting bad infographics isn't helping your case.- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
Surely it's just showing all lockdown actions taken and when? If the actions weren't directly comparable they've gone for the closest equivalent.pangolin said:Rick those 2 charts aren't even comparing the same milestones. One talks about flights, other doesn't. One talks about partial lockdown with work, other doesn't.
Is 'full lockdown' the same for these 2 countries?
I get there is likely a correlation between lockdown timing and no of cases but posting bad infographics isn't helping your case.
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Too many big words for Trump.
I doubt he could read it, far less write it.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Flamboyant analogies, Johnson?0
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I'm sure most governments would have thought it would end akin to Sar/Mers towards the beginning of the year. Hindsight > Hindsight > Hindsight.0
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I've said before, we hear regularly about these viruses starting on the other side of the world and are going to spread around the globe killing us all and we probably get a bit blase as they never seem to reach us or, if they do, turn out to have fairly minimal impact. It's like reading reports of the impending worst winter or hottest summer on record.focuszing723 said:I'm sure most governments would have thought it would end akin to Sar/Mers towards the beginning of the year. Hindsight > Hindsight > Hindsight.
I can't be the only one who thought the same this time around but you would hope Governments home for the best and plan for the the worst. Must be difficult with something completely new when you don't know how it is going to behave though.0 -
Exactly. Would Government react more quickly next time? Was Bill Gates listened to four years ago seriously enough? Did a thread about a global pandemic ever come up by anybody on here?Pross said:
I've said before, we hear regularly about these viruses starting on the other side of the world and are going to spread around the globe killing us all and we probably get a bit blase as they never seem to reach us or, if they do, turn out to have fairly minimal impact. It's like reading reports of the impending worst winter or hottest summer on record.focuszing723 said:I'm sure most governments would have thought it would end akin to Sar/Mers towards the beginning of the year. Hindsight > Hindsight > Hindsight.
I can't be the only one who thought the same this time around but you would hope Governments home for the best and plan for the the worst. Must be difficult with something completely new when you don't know how it is going to behave though.
This thread was deemed important enough to start on the 11th of March. Ricks quote that refers to the speech Johnson made was on the 3rd of February.
Like I said 'Hindsight > Hindsight > Hindsight'.0 -
Wonder what most of us would have said if in mid February the UK had been locked down, with international flights banned etc. In hindsight that would have been worthwhile, but I suspect none of us could honestly say we thought that was needed at the time.0
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Yes.0
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From the government's 2011 document
4.18 The Foreign and Commonwealth Office will issue advice regarding travel to affected countries. There are no plans to attempt to close borders in the event of an influenza pandemic. The UK generally has a high level of international connectivity, and so is likely to be one of the earlier countries to receive infectious individuals. Modelling suggests that imposing a 90% restriction on all air travel to the UK at the point a pandemic emerges would only delay the peak of a pandemic wave by one to two weeks10,11. Even a 99.9% travel restriction might delay a pandemic wave by only two months. During 2009 it became clear that the pandemic virus had already spread widely before international authorities were alerted, suggesting that in any case the point of pandemic emergence had been missed by several weeks. The economic, political and social consequences of border closures would also be very substantial, including risks to the secure supply of food, pharmaceuticals and other supplies.0 -
The Govt optimum number is 250,000 a day and as they cannot hit 10% of this I think they would be the first to admit that their testing numbers are not the best.morstar said:
As I've said repeatedly, I don't know the correct number of tests and am open minded whereas others are simply plucking big numbers out of thin air and claiming with absolute certainty that their number are better than the governments.rjsterry said:
I'm really not sure a GE is a relevant comparison, but someone with a better background in statistics can comment. For a start the sampling in an exit poll is very carefully selected whereas our current testing for C19 is on a 'where necessary' basis and is almost exclusively symptomatic cases.morstar said:
Exit polls in 2015 UK general election were based on 20,000 interviews across 140 polling stations.rjsterry said:
I'd have more confidence in those estimates if they could be shown to match some real world sampling.morstar said:
Interesting. I hope for everbodies sake there are a proportion of people who have shown no symptoms who have had this so all of those numbers are understated but that is probably wishful thinking.coopster_the_1st said:morstar said:
That's a really good watch. Thanks.rick_chasey said:
News night explain why Germany is doing so much better than the U.K.
Note that Merkel makes it clear their exit strategy involves getting infection rates to below testing rates so they can trace and track.
I know we'll take very different things from it though. For me it underlines the UK policy has been one of allowing the virus to spread whilst "Protecting the NHS". I don't think this is in dispute, they are simply not shouting it from the rooftops.
I think where we differ is that you ultimately believe the UK are failing to suppress this in the same way the Germans are whereas I think UK are not even trying to suppress this in the same way the Germans are.
Is that a fair assessment?
If so, the debate is about what is the right policy, not why the UK failed to achieve a goal it wasn't targeting.
The inference is that we have to hope UK is at least significantly further along than Germany in terms of %age infected.
I guess we all have a long way to go.
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/what-exit-poll-general-election-121122248.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly9kdWNrZHVja2dvLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAFyJime4aDAu6cqykdGRNmuqmFAtTyf7QtkME63B2fgG1BDOnraFZFRz_m1-FnhU3LJtOG3bVBmHpy2zdPX1mYWFeRT5Wr8SShULvA4HTB0wVvFODPD7671Vs6oc2gifN76vZrLjIUQPAv3xDwPTK1hmGe6QRXvLc7JUro4VKr1U
Given that a UK general election is not binary in terms of seats it is more complex to model than a binary virus. Although the virus can potentially affect the entire population rather than a sub-set.
These have given mixed results in recent years. 2010, 2017 and 2019 very reliable but 2015 not so.
Does give an idea of the order of magnitude of data required. IF, you are simply trying to model and not track and trace. (Which I believe is the UK policy)
All I have tried to do is think of an example of extrapolating data across a whole population. It turns out is a similar size sample set to our daily testing. At least I've made an effort to gain an informed understanding of the magnitude of numbers.
On what do you base the comment that our testing is "almost exclusively on symptomatic cases"? I thought the drive through centres were for health workers for a start. Beyond that, I have no idea but have not automatically assumed it is wrong. I have rather assumed that there is some sort of control group design to the testing seeing as the science office is front and centre of policy. I stand to be corrected.
In London in particular I would be curious to know how many NHS staff have a car. I assume the Govt know the answer to this question and it is far greater than amongst people under the age of 35 that I work with.0 -
Government rebuttal of the Sunday Times article
https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Key points from the French Prime Minister's update speech today:
Prime Minister Edouard Philippe accompanied by the Health Minister spoke in a televised address for more than two hours tonight giving information and answering questions about Covid-19 and deconfinement plans for France. Here are key points:
Progressive deconfinement from May 11;
Too many people suffering from non-Covid-19 related illnesses and chronic diseases are not continuing their necessary care. Consultations are considerably down sparking concern. There has also been a drop in cancer screening and vaccinations. Health minister Olivier Véran said the message to patients is strongly: Do not renounce on the healthcare you need;
Mr Philippe announced a "probable" requirement for masks in public transport from May 11;
The prime minister evoked the three points which the government sees as essential after the end of confinement: barrier gestures, wide-scale testing and the isolation of patients (either at home or in dedicated establishments depending on their family home situation). The exact details of the deconfinement procedure will be debated in parliament at the beginning of May;
From Monday April 20, under certain conditions, family visits to the residents of elderly care homes in France will be possible;
The government is planning a weekly production of 17 million general public masks; The wearing of a mask is recommended after the deconfinement as part of the barrier gestures but it must not mean that other barrier gestures, such as social distancing and the frequent washing of hands, are neglected. The provision of masks will be worked out with mayors and local services and could involve shops;
The nation will not return immediately “and probably not for a long time" to the "life it enjoyed before the health crisis.” "We have not emerged out of this,” said Mr Philippe, although progress was being made, he added, and the situation is “gradually improving, slowly but surely". He said advances were in a large part due to the confinement rules which were in the vast amount of cases respected.
The reopening of schools will start from May 11 but will not involve all schools at the same time. The openings could possibly be staggered “by territory" or "part of the class," dependent on the local situation. Various scenarios are being studied;
Remote / Home working must be maintained after May 11 "as much as possible;"
The government hopes to be able to carry out 500,000 tests to see if people showing symptoms of the virus or having been in contact with people who are sick have the virus per week (compared to 25,000 today) from May 11. This is so they can isolate;
The reopening of shops will be staggered and will not be immediate from May 11 for cafes and restaurants and "distancing" will be necessary;
Nearly 20,000 people have now died from the virus in France with 227 extra deaths reported from hospitals in the last 24 hours (compared to 364 in the previous 24 hours). This brings the total to 12,069 deaths in hospitals since March 1 and 7,649 deaths in homes for the elderly (Ehpads) and other establishments making a total number of 19,718. Presently 30,610 people are hospitalized for a coronavirus infection - 29 less than on Saturday. Among them, 5,744 serious cases are in the intensive care unit, this is 89 fewer patients than on Saturday. It is the 11th consecutive daily decrease.
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Govt seriously on the back foot.tailwindhome said:Government rebuttal of the Sunday Times article
https://healthmedia.blog.gov.uk/2020/04/19/response-to-sunday-times-insight-article/
Given what happened with Brexit this is a very odd look.0 -
Interesting that China has sent many multiples of the PPE that the UK sent.0
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If only they had access to a TV or knew people in Asia they would not have needed hindsight.focuszing723 said:I'm sure most governments would have thought it would end akin to Sar/Mers towards the beginning of the year. Hindsight > Hindsight > Hindsight.
When China locked down Wuhan and built a hospital in a week it was obvious things were so out of control that it could not be swept under the carpet.
You are just plain wrong with your cries of hindsight.
The Govt chose to let it run and go for herd immunity, a ballsy decision but they shat themselves and tried to contain it. Having done no prep they have been playing catch up ever since and have continued to make bad decision after bad decision0 -
Really not a fan of criticizing the government for sending PPE to other countries.TheBigBean said:Interesting that China has sent many multiples of the PPE that the UK sent.
Their house was on fire and we lent them a hose.
Seen the same criticism in NI of Randox, apparently they shouldn't be exporting the tests they manufacture as Invest NI have given them public money in the form of grants.
No time for it.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
72 hrs for anyone who needs the furlough money to pay their staff to get their claim in.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Well as a regular critic of these tossers I tip my hat to them that they have built a website that can cope with hundreds of thousands of businesses making their application and that they ca; process them for the month end.tailwindhome said:72 hrs for anyone who needs the furlough money to pay their staff to get their claim in.
One can only imagine the testing that has taken place to ascertain the capacity that is needed to get everybody on and off the site in 48 hours and despatch the money (virtually) by return0 -
What were other Western Countries doing at this time, who managed to escape Sar/Mers?surrey_commuter said:
If only they had access to a TV or knew people in Asia they would not have needed hindsight.focuszing723 said:I'm sure most governments would have thought it would end akin to Sar/Mers towards the beginning of the year. Hindsight > Hindsight > Hindsight.
When China locked down Wuhan and built a hospital in a week it was obvious things were so out of control that it could not be swept under the carpet.
You are just plain wrong with your cries of hindsight.
The Govt chose to let it run and go for herd immunity, a ballsy decision but they shat themselves and tried to contain it. Having done no prep they have been playing catch up ever since and have continued to make bad decision after bad decision0 -
tailwindhome said:
Really not a fan of criticizing the government for sending PPE to other countries.TheBigBean said:Interesting that China has sent many multiples of the PPE that the UK sent.
Their house was on fire and we lent them a hose.
Seen the same criticism in NI of Randox, apparently they shouldn't be exporting the tests they manufacture as Invest NI have given them public money in the form of grants.
No time for it.
Not sure about your analogy - you would get your hose back
If, for decades, we have stored sufficient quantities of PPE to deal with a pandemic why give it away when you are on the verge of needing it?
Do you think they did not know they could not replace it in a reasonable timeframe or do you think they just did not care?
A better analogy might be annulling your insurance with your house on fire.0
