The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
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I would be surprised if many ticked enough boxes to get a bed in a proper hospital. I am sure I read somewhere that they will be left to it. This is why the numbers are so high in other countries for care home deaths.Pross said:
I thought they said at today's briefing that they have them but they take longer to process so they don't use them for the daily update briefing and most other countries are the same.rick_chasey said:
Care home stats coming through, right?surrey_commuter said:DM headline “the worse is yet to come, even though deal toll falls for third day in a row”
Any readers with two cells to rub together will be confused.
The others are going to censored themselves on Wednesday
I'd be genuinely shocked if we are anywhere near those numbers in France and Belgium. A lot of our care homes are residential rather than nursing and so if any of their service users got I'll I would have thought they would go to hospital. I've heard of a few outbreaks in Scotland and the home up north where there have been 13 deaths. I suspect we'd have heard of more if it was widespread.
There is obviously a mood on here to stop comparing with other countries. I will stick in the camp that it allows us to magically see into the future. Add in non-hospital deaths and Easter counting indolence and we are not coming out of lockdown anytime soon.0 -
That's not what he said.First.Aspect said:
So, what, you just don't believe the statistics now? Don't they quite fit your narrative?rick_chasey said:
Would be an absolutely stunning achievement of the UK elderly care sector if they help keep deaths outside of hospital down to 10% of the overall death count, compared to the rest of Europe which has, as per figures above, running around the 40-50%.mrfpb said:
But they are still saying C19 deaths outside hospital are 10% of the total - no different to the level they were reporting last week.kingstongraham said:
And there it is.kingstongraham said:This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.
Total registered deaths in week to 3rd April were 16,387 which is about 6,000 above the average of the last 5 years for that week. That in a week when the announced deaths went up by about 3,000.
Edit: these figures are only England and Wales.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
It’s useful to compare with other countries whilst understanding the limitations of those comparisons.surrey_commuter said:
I would be surprised if many ticked enough boxes to get a bed in a proper hospital. I am sure I read somewhere that they will be left to it. This is why the numbers are so high in other countries for care home deaths.Pross said:
I thought they said at today's briefing that they have them but they take longer to process so they don't use them for the daily update briefing and most other countries are the same.rick_chasey said:
Care home stats coming through, right?surrey_commuter said:DM headline “the worse is yet to come, even though deal toll falls for third day in a row”
Any readers with two cells to rub together will be confused.
The others are going to censored themselves on Wednesday
I'd be genuinely shocked if we are anywhere near those numbers in France and Belgium. A lot of our care homes are residential rather than nursing and so if any of their service users got I'll I would have thought they would go to hospital. I've heard of a few outbreaks in Scotland and the home up north where there have been 13 deaths. I suspect we'd have heard of more if it was widespread.
There is obviously a mood on here to stop comparing with other countries. I will stick in the camp that it allows us to magically see into the future. Add in non-hospital deaths and Easter counting indolence and we are not coming out of lockdown anytime soon.
Isolated comparisons of selective data can be used to tell lots of incorrect narratives.
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I will stop short of saying a data journalist at the FT is wrong but I can not get my head around that for a couple of reasons. Surely a larger population is likely to have more ground zerosrjsterry said:
There was a good Peter Foster thread on how doctors are effectively researching how to treat this in emergency conditions. It seems that some are still, amazingly, finding time to properly write up and publish their findings on top working under the increased load. Can't find it now as he's churning out a lot of tweets at the moment.nickice said:
Some countries with notably good outcomes have been using chloroquine or hydoxychloroquine. I remember reading something about it being used in Germany but I can't be sure. There is a French professor who did two clinical trials on it but I believe neither had a proper control group. His argument was that it was unethical to do so.surrey_commuter said:DeVlaeminck said:Yes there are two possible explanations for Germany's low death rate - one that they have successfully limited the spread and two that they treat those infected more effectively. Ok maybe a third that their population is somehow more resilient than ours (age, ethnicity, general health etc).
I'm assuming their apparent success (leaving aside questions of whether that is just delaying the inevitable and whether that success is down to accident or design) is primarily down to the first reason but it's certainly possible 2 and 3 play a part - and the second possibly a major part.
I am really not sure what treatment helps. The suggestion is that BoJo went into ICU earlier than a standard punter so maybe early access to oxygen helps.
Germany does have a lot of recoveries but we don’t even bother to record them. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
John Burn Murdoch explains it more clearly than I can.surrey_commuter said:
That is hurting my head, can you rephraserjsterry said:
Except that per capita figures don't tell you much beyond the different sizes of the host population.surrey_commuter said:
But we are only counting about half of our deaths so that would put us neck and neck with Belgium, Italy.kingstonian said:Yeah, Belgium appear to have double the number of cases per 1m of population and double the death rate per 1m of population. Struggling to post the link but the data is on the Worldometers site
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People are seeking reassurance in a frightening time, that's all. More people are finding God as well, I imagine.rick_chasey said:In relation to my increasing unpopularity as I continue to post on this thread:
This thread is interesting:Public trust in central government has gone up, particularly in the UK, where 40% say they have more confidence in the Government than before the crisis (2/7)There are no significant differences in the findings between Conservatives and Labour voters overall. The UK has gone from one of the most divided nations to one of the most united (3/7)In the UK the public have become more positive towards business, central Government, public health agencies, the NHS, supermarkets and the banks than before the crisis (4/7)Since the crisis began there has been a collapse in confidence in the media across all four countries in the survey - the biggest fall being in the UK with a 21% net loss in confidence (5/7)
I am plainly bucking the trend (of showing more trust in the gov't) and it is showing.
Some of the media haven't read public mood very well either. I guess that a lot of journos have spent their entire professional lives prodding for 2-3 second soundbites, but this seems to be a rare incidence of the public understanding first that this is not a "soundbite" issue.
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Your redefinition of negativity is quite something.coopster_the_1st said:
I agree with you. The media have been terrible on this, exposing how little they know and mostly way behind the common man. The level on here from most, excluding our mini Piers Morgan & the Jeremy Corbyn sound-a-like, has been way ahead of where the media is.morstar said:So, we are where we are and arguing about the rights and wrongs of that has been a major focus of the thread the last few days.
Looking forward, people are talking about removing restrictions. It seems to me that the talk seems to be as though the lifting of the restrictions is the beginning of the end and things will be getting back to normal. Not that we will need to maintain a level of restrictions on movement for months to come.
Is that me misinterpreting the media or is that a fair assessment?
It's why I say we have a huge problem building up as we get to the realisation that there will be over 100k deaths over the next few months.
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
First.Aspect said:
So, what, you just don't believe the statistics now? Don't they quite fit your narrative?rick_chasey said:
Would be an absolutely stunning achievement of the UK elderly care sector if they help keep deaths outside of hospital down to 10% of the overall death count, compared to the rest of Europe which has, as per figures above, running around the 40-50%.mrfpb said:
But they are still saying C19 deaths outside hospital are 10% of the total - no different to the level they were reporting last week.kingstongraham said:
And there it is.kingstongraham said:This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.
Total registered deaths in week to 3rd April were 16,387 which is about 6,000 above the average of the last 5 years for that week. That in a week when the announced deaths went up by about 3,000.
Edit: these figures are only England and Wales.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-522788250 -
First.Aspect said:
So, what, you just don't believe the statistics now? Don't they quite fit your narrative?rick_chasey said:
Would be an absolutely stunning achievement of the UK elderly care sector if they help keep deaths outside of hospital down to 10% of the overall death count, compared to the rest of Europe which has, as per figures above, running around the 40-50%.mrfpb said:
But they are still saying C19 deaths outside hospital are 10% of the total - no different to the level they were reporting last week.kingstongraham said:
And there it is.kingstongraham said:This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.
Total registered deaths in week to 3rd April were 16,387 which is about 6,000 above the average of the last 5 years for that week. That in a week when the announced deaths went up by about 3,000.
Edit: these figures are only England and Wales.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825
I noticed yesterday that the BBC now calls the Govt’s figure “C19 reported deaths in UK hospitals”
Put me down as believing the weekday stats are approx half of what they should be and the weekend one probably closer to a third.
Does your comment mean you think the released stats for the Easter weekend are correct?0 -
Higher chance of multiple outbreaks, no?surrey_commuter said:
I will stop short of saying a data journalist at the FT is wrong but I can not get my head around that for a couple of reasons. Surely a larger population is likely to have more ground zerosrjsterry said:
There was a good Peter Foster thread on how doctors are effectively researching how to treat this in emergency conditions. It seems that some are still, amazingly, finding time to properly write up and publish their findings on top working under the increased load. Can't find it now as he's churning out a lot of tweets at the moment.nickice said:
Some countries with notably good outcomes have been using chloroquine or hydoxychloroquine. I remember reading something about it being used in Germany but I can't be sure. There is a French professor who did two clinical trials on it but I believe neither had a proper control group. His argument was that it was unethical to do so.surrey_commuter said:DeVlaeminck said:Yes there are two possible explanations for Germany's low death rate - one that they have successfully limited the spread and two that they treat those infected more effectively. Ok maybe a third that their population is somehow more resilient than ours (age, ethnicity, general health etc).
I'm assuming their apparent success (leaving aside questions of whether that is just delaying the inevitable and whether that success is down to accident or design) is primarily down to the first reason but it's certainly possible 2 and 3 play a part - and the second possibly a major part.
I am really not sure what treatment helps. The suggestion is that BoJo went into ICU earlier than a standard punter so maybe early access to oxygen helps.
Germany does have a lot of recoveries but we don’t even bother to record them. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
John Burn Murdoch explains it more clearly than I can.surrey_commuter said:
That is hurting my head, can you rephraserjsterry said:
Except that per capita figures don't tell you much beyond the different sizes of the host population.surrey_commuter said:
But we are only counting about half of our deaths so that would put us neck and neck with Belgium, Italy.kingstonian said:Yeah, Belgium appear to have double the number of cases per 1m of population and double the death rate per 1m of population. Struggling to post the link but the data is on the Worldometers site
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Imagine trying to set our road safety policy purely by looking at the raw numbers of daily road deaths in different countries.surrey_commuter said:
I would be surprised if many ticked enough boxes to get a bed in a proper hospital. I am sure I read somewhere that they will be left to it. This is why the numbers are so high in other countries for care home deaths.Pross said:
I thought they said at today's briefing that they have them but they take longer to process so they don't use them for the daily update briefing and most other countries are the same.rick_chasey said:
Care home stats coming through, right?surrey_commuter said:DM headline “the worse is yet to come, even though deal toll falls for third day in a row”
Any readers with two cells to rub together will be confused.
The others are going to censored themselves on Wednesday
I'd be genuinely shocked if we are anywhere near those numbers in France and Belgium. A lot of our care homes are residential rather than nursing and so if any of their service users got I'll I would have thought they would go to hospital. I've heard of a few outbreaks in Scotland and the home up north where there have been 13 deaths. I suspect we'd have heard of more if it was widespread.
There is obviously a mood on here to stop comparing with other countries. I will stick in the camp that it allows us to magically see into the future. Add in non-hospital deaths and Easter counting indolence and we are not coming out of lockdown anytime soon.
It's not that you should completely ignore what is happening in other countries, but if you only look at the official death figures, that is only a single metric, compiled in a slightly different way in each country. Each country's demographics, population density, health services and public health interventions are different. They will all have an impact on the spread of the disease, which will in turn have an impact on the numbers of deaths. You need more information on a variety of different metrics to establish which bit of the system is affecting either numbers of infections or effectiveness of health care.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
And that is for stats on 4th April, imagine if that divergence continuescoopster_the_1st said:First.Aspect said:
So, what, you just don't believe the statistics now? Don't they quite fit your narrative?rick_chasey said:
Would be an absolutely stunning achievement of the UK elderly care sector if they help keep deaths outside of hospital down to 10% of the overall death count, compared to the rest of Europe which has, as per figures above, running around the 40-50%.mrfpb said:
But they are still saying C19 deaths outside hospital are 10% of the total - no different to the level they were reporting last week.kingstongraham said:
And there it is.kingstongraham said:This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.
Total registered deaths in week to 3rd April were 16,387 which is about 6,000 above the average of the last 5 years for that week. That in a week when the announced deaths went up by about 3,000.
Edit: these figures are only England and Wales.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-522788250 -
I have been ahead of the curve since this thread started and I keep giving you the information of where this is going.tailwindhome said:
Your redefinition of negativity is quite something.coopster_the_1st said:
I agree with you. The media have been terrible on this, exposing how little they know and mostly way behind the common man. The level on here from most, excluding our mini Piers Morgan & the Jeremy Corbyn sound-a-like, has been way ahead of where the media is.morstar said:So, we are where we are and arguing about the rights and wrongs of that has been a major focus of the thread the last few days.
Looking forward, people are talking about removing restrictions. It seems to me that the talk seems to be as though the lifting of the restrictions is the beginning of the end and things will be getting back to normal. Not that we will need to maintain a level of restrictions on movement for months to come.
Is that me misinterpreting the media or is that a fair assessment?
It's why I say we have a huge problem building up as we get to the realisation that there will be over 100k deaths over the next few months.
It is plainly obvious that with a mortality rate of 0.25-0.5% C19 will result in over 100k deaths, this year alone.
I'm am not going to stop because it triggers your wokeness however I will ignore you for being a twat if you continue!0 -
Presumably the initial stages come from one outbreak so the size of population is less relevant than the density of population in that localised area - as this progresses and becomes endemic throughout society clearly population size will be very relevant - unless I'm missing something.surrey_commuter said:
I will stop short of saying a data journalist at the FT is wrong but I can not get my head around that for a couple of reasons. Surely a larger population is likely to have more ground zerosrjsterry said:
There was a good Peter Foster thread on how doctors are effectively researching how to treat this in emergency conditions. It seems that some are still, amazingly, finding time to properly write up and publish their findings on top working under the increased load. Can't find it now as he's churning out a lot of tweets at the moment.nickice said:
Some countries with notably good outcomes have been using chloroquine or hydoxychloroquine. I remember reading something about it being used in Germany but I can't be sure. There is a French professor who did two clinical trials on it but I believe neither had a proper control group. His argument was that it was unethical to do so.surrey_commuter said:DeVlaeminck said:Yes there are two possible explanations for Germany's low death rate - one that they have successfully limited the spread and two that they treat those infected more effectively. Ok maybe a third that their population is somehow more resilient than ours (age, ethnicity, general health etc).
I'm assuming their apparent success (leaving aside questions of whether that is just delaying the inevitable and whether that success is down to accident or design) is primarily down to the first reason but it's certainly possible 2 and 3 play a part - and the second possibly a major part.
I am really not sure what treatment helps. The suggestion is that BoJo went into ICU earlier than a standard punter so maybe early access to oxygen helps.
Germany does have a lot of recoveries but we don’t even bother to record them. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
John Burn Murdoch explains it more clearly than I can.surrey_commuter said:
That is hurting my head, can you rephraserjsterry said:
Except that per capita figures don't tell you much beyond the different sizes of the host population.surrey_commuter said:
But we are only counting about half of our deaths so that would put us neck and neck with Belgium, Italy.kingstonian said:Yeah, Belgium appear to have double the number of cases per 1m of population and double the death rate per 1m of population. Struggling to post the link but the data is on the Worldometers site
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
Rick, it's perfectly possible to not trust the government to some degree and disagree with your narrative. I would have thought that most people on here do both.rick_chasey said:In relation to my increasing unpopularity as I continue to post on this thread:
This thread is interesting:Public trust in central government has gone up, particularly in the UK, where 40% say they have more confidence in the Government than before the crisis (2/7)There are no significant differences in the findings between Conservatives and Labour voters overall. The UK has gone from one of the most divided nations to one of the most united (3/7)In the UK the public have become more positive towards business, central Government, public health agencies, the NHS, supermarkets and the banks than before the crisis (4/7)Since the crisis began there has been a collapse in confidence in the media across all four countries in the survey - the biggest fall being in the UK with a 21% net loss in confidence (5/7)
I am plainly bucking the trend (of showing more trust in the gov't) and it is showing."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
As with other aspects of this crisis, it is a complex issue and we are working with incomplete info, hence the speculation such as yours (I'm not having a go at you on that btw). And as mentioned before, we may well not understand it properly for some time.mrfpb said:
Alternatively, it could be that care homes are getting people to hospital before they die, as is usual practice (in my post upthread). But this will change if deaths per day continue to rise.rick_chasey said:
Would be an absolutely stunning achievement of the UK elderly care sector if they help keep deaths outside of hospital down to 10% of the overall death count, compared to the rest of Europe which has, as per figures above, running around the 40-50%.mrfpb said:
But they are still saying C19 deaths outside hospital are 10% of the total - no different to the level they were reporting last week.kingstongraham said:
And there it is.kingstongraham said:This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.
Total registered deaths in week to 3rd April were 16,387 which is about 6,000 above the average of the last 5 years for that week. That in a week when the announced deaths went up by about 3,000.
Edit: these figures are only England and Wales.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
What's a "care home", as distinct from a "nursing home"?
Open One+ BMC TE29 Seven 622SL On One Scandal Cervelo RS0 -
What does 'triggers your wokeness' mean?coopster_the_1st said:
I have been ahead of the curve since this thread started and I keep giving you the information of where this is going.tailwindhome said:
Your redefinition of negativity is quite something.coopster_the_1st said:
I agree with you. The media have been terrible on this, exposing how little they know and mostly way behind the common man. The level on here from most, excluding our mini Piers Morgan & the Jeremy Corbyn sound-a-like, has been way ahead of where the media is.morstar said:So, we are where we are and arguing about the rights and wrongs of that has been a major focus of the thread the last few days.
Looking forward, people are talking about removing restrictions. It seems to me that the talk seems to be as though the lifting of the restrictions is the beginning of the end and things will be getting back to normal. Not that we will need to maintain a level of restrictions on movement for months to come.
Is that me misinterpreting the media or is that a fair assessment?
It's why I say we have a huge problem building up as we get to the realisation that there will be over 100k deaths over the next few months.
It is plainly obvious that with a mortality rate of 0.25-0.5% C19 will result in over 100k deaths, this year alone.
I'm am not going to stop because it triggers your wokeness however I will ignore you for being a censored if you continue!
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
Way ahead of the curve Coop. I'm sure they'll be rolling out your Butlins death camp idea any day now.coopster_the_1st said:
I have been ahead of the curve since this thread started and I keep giving you the information of where this is going.tailwindhome said:
Your redefinition of negativity is quite something.coopster_the_1st said:
I agree with you. The media have been terrible on this, exposing how little they know and mostly way behind the common man. The level on here from most, excluding our mini Piers Morgan & the Jeremy Corbyn sound-a-like, has been way ahead of where the media is.morstar said:So, we are where we are and arguing about the rights and wrongs of that has been a major focus of the thread the last few days.
Looking forward, people are talking about removing restrictions. It seems to me that the talk seems to be as though the lifting of the restrictions is the beginning of the end and things will be getting back to normal. Not that we will need to maintain a level of restrictions on movement for months to come.
Is that me misinterpreting the media or is that a fair assessment?
It's why I say we have a huge problem building up as we get to the realisation that there will be over 100k deaths over the next few months.
It is plainly obvious that with a mortality rate of 0.25-0.5% C19 will result in over 100k deaths, this year alone.
I'm am not going to stop because it triggers your wokeness however I will ignore you for being a censored if you continue!- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
This is where I am. We have a 2 week shutdown period after which people will start ignoring the shutdown.coopster_the_1st said:
I have been ahead of the curve since this thread started and I keep giving you the information of where this is going.tailwindhome said:
Your redefinition of negativity is quite something.coopster_the_1st said:
I agree with you. The media have been terrible on this, exposing how little they know and mostly way behind the common man. The level on here from most, excluding our mini Piers Morgan & the Jeremy Corbyn sound-a-like, has been way ahead of where the media is.morstar said:So, we are where we are and arguing about the rights and wrongs of that has been a major focus of the thread the last few days.
Looking forward, people are talking about removing restrictions. It seems to me that the talk seems to be as though the lifting of the restrictions is the beginning of the end and things will be getting back to normal. Not that we will need to maintain a level of restrictions on movement for months to come.
Is that me misinterpreting the media or is that a fair assessment?
It's why I say we have a huge problem building up as we get to the realisation that there will be over 100k deaths over the next few months.
It is plainly obvious that with a mortality rate of 0.25-0.5% C19 will result in over 100k deaths, this year alone.
I'm am not going to stop because it triggers your wokeness however I will ignore you for being a censored if you continue!
We've got one swing to hit this home run for the best outcome here. Do those saying we are not doing enough really believe now is the right time when we have less than 500 positive cases and only 8 deaths?
Not noticing any large disobedience of the shutdown after three weeks. And the last of those weeks included some absolutely beautiful weather over a long Bank Holiday.
Any relief of the shutdown is gonna be very painful. The government will be taking an action that will deliberately put the public in harms way.
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Nursing homes have care delivered by qualified nurses as opposed to unqualified care staff. The manager of a care home requires a social care qualification as opposed to a nursing or medical qualification. Consequently the needs of the residents are higher in nursing homes. Funding for care homes comes from local authority, nursing homes get dual funding from LA and CCG. In reality many residents of care homes actually have health needs that used to require nursing care, but tightening of eligibility criteria for continuing care means they stay in residential care.Wheelspinner said:What's a "care home", as distinct from a "nursing home"?
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As I said earlier, care home is the generic term given to residential homes and nursing homes, but they are quite different things really, as the average length of residency in each (which i also mentioned earlier) displays.Wheelspinner said:What's a "care home", as distinct from a "nursing home"?
I anticipate those from residential homes will have largely died in a hospital, those in a nursing home will have died in the nursing home. Residential homes do not have medical facilities or medically trained staff. surprisingly, nursing homes have both!
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Teehee. By the way he used to be the Guardian's data bod. There's a whole thread, which is worth reading. FWIW, I also initially thought that rates per 100,000 would be more relevant, but the explanation is pretty clear.surrey_commuter said:
I will stop short of saying a data journalist at the FT is wrong but I can not get my head around that for a couple of reasons. Surely a larger population is likely to have more ground zerosrjsterry said:
There was a good Peter Foster thread on how doctors are effectively researching how to treat this in emergency conditions. It seems that some are still, amazingly, finding time to properly write up and publish their findings on top working under the increased load. Can't find it now as he's churning out a lot of tweets at the moment.nickice said:
Some countries with notably good outcomes have been using chloroquine or hydoxychloroquine. I remember reading something about it being used in Germany but I can't be sure. There is a French professor who did two clinical trials on it but I believe neither had a proper control group. His argument was that it was unethical to do so.surrey_commuter said:DeVlaeminck said:Yes there are two possible explanations for Germany's low death rate - one that they have successfully limited the spread and two that they treat those infected more effectively. Ok maybe a third that their population is somehow more resilient than ours (age, ethnicity, general health etc).
I'm assuming their apparent success (leaving aside questions of whether that is just delaying the inevitable and whether that success is down to accident or design) is primarily down to the first reason but it's certainly possible 2 and 3 play a part - and the second possibly a major part.
I am really not sure what treatment helps. The suggestion is that BoJo went into ICU earlier than a standard punter so maybe early access to oxygen helps.
Germany does have a lot of recoveries but we don’t even bother to record them. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
John Burn Murdoch explains it more clearly than I can.surrey_commuter said:
That is hurting my head, can you rephraserjsterry said:
Except that per capita figures don't tell you much beyond the different sizes of the host population.surrey_commuter said:
But we are only counting about half of our deaths so that would put us neck and neck with Belgium, Italy.kingstonian said:Yeah, Belgium appear to have double the number of cases per 1m of population and double the death rate per 1m of population. Struggling to post the link but the data is on the Worldometers site
On the distribution of first cades, that's far from certain. There's no reason why infected people should be equally distributed around the globe (quite the opposite). Added to which I have seen estimates for rates of asymptomatic infection varying from 25% to as much as 78% in one BMJ article. There is so much we don't know.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Thank you.mrfpb said:
Nursing homes have care delivered by qualified nurses as opposed to unqualified care staff. The manager of a care home requires a social care qualification as opposed to a nursing or medical qualification. Consequently the needs of the residents are higher in nursing homes. Funding for care homes comes from local authority, nursing homes get dual funding from LA and CCG. In reality many residents of care homes actually have health needs that used to require nursing care, but tightening of eligibility criteria for continuing care means they stay in residential care.Wheelspinner said:What's a "care home", as distinct from a "nursing home"?
Open One+ BMC TE29 Seven 622SL On One Scandal Cervelo RS0 -
BCG vaccination is also appearing to provide a benefit but no-one seems sure why as that is designed to treat a bacterial infection rather than a virus. Apparently there has been some testing that supported anecdotal reports but it hasn't been peer reviewed yet.nickice said:
Some countries with notably good outcomes have been using chloroquine or hydoxychloroquine. I remember reading something about it being used in Germany but I can't be sure. There is a French professor who did two clinical trials on it but I believe neither had a proper control group. His argument was that it was unethical to do so.surrey_commuter said:DeVlaeminck said:Yes there are two possible explanations for Germany's low death rate - one that they have successfully limited the spread and two that they treat those infected more effectively. Ok maybe a third that their population is somehow more resilient than ours (age, ethnicity, general health etc).
I'm assuming their apparent success (leaving aside questions of whether that is just delaying the inevitable and whether that success is down to accident or design) is primarily down to the first reason but it's certainly possible 2 and 3 play a part - and the second possibly a major part.
I am really not sure what treatment helps. The suggestion is that BoJo went into ICU earlier than a standard punter so maybe early access to oxygen helps.
Germany does have a lot of recoveries but we don’t even bother to record them. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries0 -
This seems the most likely scenario. My limited knowledge would suggest that most care homes in the UK don't have the levels of medical support to try to treat seriously ill residents. In the case of those homes that do deal with EOL and serious illnesses there will be the difficulty of determining if they died due to the virus or had the virus when they died.mrfpb said:
Alternatively, it could be that care homes are getting people to hospital before they die, as is usual practice (in my post upthread). But this will change if deaths per day continue to rise.rick_chasey said:
Would be an absolutely stunning achievement of the UK elderly care sector if they help keep deaths outside of hospital down to 10% of the overall death count, compared to the rest of Europe which has, as per figures above, running around the 40-50%.mrfpb said:
But they are still saying C19 deaths outside hospital are 10% of the total - no different to the level they were reporting last week.kingstongraham said:
And there it is.kingstongraham said:This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales
It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.
Total registered deaths in week to 3rd April were 16,387 which is about 6,000 above the average of the last 5 years for that week. That in a week when the announced deaths went up by about 3,000.
Edit: these figures are only England and Wales.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-522788250 -
I've also read about using plasma/antibodies from those who have recovered from the disease, which was also effective with SARS and MERS.Pross said:
BCG vaccination is also appearing to provide a benefit but no-one seems sure why as that is designed to treat a bacterial infection rather than a virus. Apparently there has been some testing that supported anecdotal reports but it hasn't been peer reviewed yet.nickice said:
Some countries with notably good outcomes have been using chloroquine or hydoxychloroquine. I remember reading something about it being used in Germany but I can't be sure. There is a French professor who did two clinical trials on it but I believe neither had a proper control group. His argument was that it was unethical to do so.surrey_commuter said:DeVlaeminck said:Yes there are two possible explanations for Germany's low death rate - one that they have successfully limited the spread and two that they treat those infected more effectively. Ok maybe a third that their population is somehow more resilient than ours (age, ethnicity, general health etc).
I'm assuming their apparent success (leaving aside questions of whether that is just delaying the inevitable and whether that success is down to accident or design) is primarily down to the first reason but it's certainly possible 2 and 3 play a part - and the second possibly a major part.
I am really not sure what treatment helps. The suggestion is that BoJo went into ICU earlier than a standard punter so maybe early access to oxygen helps.
Germany does have a lot of recoveries but we don’t even bother to record them. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I think it's because it might stimulate the innate immune system (which also might be a reason why children tend to be less affected) but like you said, the research is ropey.Pross said:
BCG vaccination is also appearing to provide a benefit but no-one seems sure why as that is designed to treat a bacterial infection rather than a virus. Apparently there has been some testing that supported anecdotal reports but it hasn't been peer reviewed yet.nickice said:
Some countries with notably good outcomes have been using chloroquine or hydoxychloroquine. I remember reading something about it being used in Germany but I can't be sure. There is a French professor who did two clinical trials on it but I believe neither had a proper control group. His argument was that it was unethical to do so.surrey_commuter said:DeVlaeminck said:Yes there are two possible explanations for Germany's low death rate - one that they have successfully limited the spread and two that they treat those infected more effectively. Ok maybe a third that their population is somehow more resilient than ours (age, ethnicity, general health etc).
I'm assuming their apparent success (leaving aside questions of whether that is just delaying the inevitable and whether that success is down to accident or design) is primarily down to the first reason but it's certainly possible 2 and 3 play a part - and the second possibly a major part.
I am really not sure what treatment helps. The suggestion is that BoJo went into ICU earlier than a standard punter so maybe early access to oxygen helps.
Germany does have a lot of recoveries but we don’t even bother to record them. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries0 -
I certainly agree on that and it made me cringe in yesterday's press conference when journalists were trying to push for a timescale. I'm hoping that there may be some relaxing of the situation within a month but I'm certainly not expecting it and really can't see it being lifted altogether. I don't see the likes of pubs, cinemas, theatres etc. reopening for months yet.surrey_commuter said:we are not coming out of lockdown anytime soon.
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