The big Coronavirus thread

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Comments

  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,474
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,898
    mrfpb said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Also looks like the govt has a scrapped the F1 ventilator scheme and Drs from nations who took part in the EU bulk purchasing scheme for PPE (Britain decline three times to join) get their first delivery today.

    I think you mean the CPAP, not ventilator.
    There was a separate group involving Renault and Red Bull Racing that was developing a ventilator but this has been found to be unsuitable for C19 treatment.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited April 2020
    I would be surprised if the care home death rates for homes with outbreaks being materially different to what's been reported in other nations, which is around 2/5ths to around a half of the total reported deaths. That's *a lot*.




    News bulletin on the radio talking about what we know so far re deaths outside of hospitals being the 'tip of the iceberg'.
    _
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,623
    rick_chasey said:

    I would be surprised if the care home death rates for homes with outbreaks being materially different to what's been reported in other nations, which is around 2/5ths to around a half of residents. That's *a lot*.

    News bulletin on the radio talking about what we know so far re deaths outside of hospitals being the 'tip of the iceberg'.

    You need to distinguish between residential homes and nursing homes.
    Do they have both on the continent? (I don't know).
    Death rates in the two are likely to be different, and the health of the residents is quite different, but both get the same 'care home' label.

    Average stay in a residential home is around 8-9 years, it's around 15 months I think in a nursing home.....
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    pblakeney said:

    pangolin said:

    morstar said:

    So, we are where we are and arguing about the rights and wrongs of that has been a major focus of the thread the last few days.

    Looking forward, people are talking about removing restrictions. It seems to me that the talk seems to be as though the lifting of the restrictions is the beginning of the end and things will be getting back to normal. Not that we will need to maintain a level of restrictions on movement for months to come.

    Is that me misinterpreting the media or is that a fair assessment?

    No there is a fair bit of head in the sand going on about how we get out of lockdown. If those prev estimates that only around 5% are infected so far are correct then we have along way to go.
    My thinking too.
    “The steps we have taken are working so we will cut back on them” seems a bit silly and premature.
    I’m OK with some relaxing of them once a downward trend is established but, the framing seems to be, we’re over the worst of it, not we’re over the worst of round 1.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Dorset_Boy said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I would be surprised if the care home death rates for homes with outbreaks being materially different to what's been reported in other nations, which is around 2/5ths to around a half of residents. That's *a lot*.

    News bulletin on the radio talking about what we know so far re deaths outside of hospitals being the 'tip of the iceberg'.

    You need to distinguish between residential homes and nursing homes.
    Do they have both on the continent? (I don't know).
    Death rates in the two are likely to be different, and the health of the residents is quite different, but both get the same 'care home' label.

    Average stay in a residential home is around 8-9 years, it's around 15 months I think in a nursing home.....
    Yeah sorry I read the stats wrong and have corrected above.
    _
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    rick_chasey said:

    Also looks like the govt has a scrapped the F1 ventilator scheme and Drs from nations who took part in the EU bulk purchasing scheme for PPE (Britain decline three times to join) get their first delivery today.



    BBC reporting that 20,000 orders have been placed for a device known as a Rapidly Manufactured Ventilator System (RMVS) that the F1 teams developed. The article also mentions the F1 teams are producing around 1000 units a day.


  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    kingstonian said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Also looks like the govt has a scrapped the F1 ventilator scheme and Drs from nations who took part in the EU bulk purchasing scheme for PPE (Britain decline three times to join) get their first delivery today.



    BBC reporting that 20,000 orders have been placed for a device known as a Rapidly Manufactured Ventilator System (RMVS) that the F1 teams developed. The article also mentions the F1 teams are producing around 1000 units a day.


    Fair. I'm referring to the BlueSky effort with RedBull and Renault
    _
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,474
    CNN aren't d1cking about

    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,295
    This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Pross said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    kingstonian said:

    Yeah, Belgium appear to have double the number of cases per 1m of population and double the death rate per 1m of population. Struggling to post the link but the data is on the Worldometers site

    But we are only counting about half of our deaths so that would put us neck and neck with Belgium, Italy.
    Is that the case or have you made up a number? I can't imagine 11,000 have died at home or in care homes.
    There was something in the Times (Saturday I think) that showed how the initial figured approximately doubled after two weeks. The initial number is hospitals only.

    So if you double the two weeks back from April 11th and then rounded up for weekends and bank holidays I reckon you will not be far off Belgium
  • nickice
    nickice Posts: 2,439
    surrey_commuter said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    Yes there are two possible explanations for Germany's low death rate - one that they have successfully limited the spread and two that they treat those infected more effectively. Ok maybe a third that their population is somehow more resilient than ours (age, ethnicity, general health etc).

    I'm assuming their apparent success (leaving aside questions of whether that is just delaying the inevitable and whether that success is down to accident or design) is primarily down to the first reason but it's certainly possible 2 and 3 play a part - and the second possibly a major part.


    I am really not sure what treatment helps. The suggestion is that BoJo went into ICU earlier than a standard punter so maybe early access to oxygen helps.
    Germany does have a lot of recoveries but we don’t even bother to record them. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
    Some countries with notably good outcomes have been using chloroquine or hydoxychloroquine. I remember reading something about it being used in Germany but I can't be sure. There is a French professor who did two clinical trials on it but I believe neither had a proper control group. His argument was that it was unethical to do so.
  • nickice
    nickice Posts: 2,439
    surrey_commuter said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    Yes there are two possible explanations for Germany's low death rate - one that they have successfully limited the spread and two that they treat those infected more effectively. Ok maybe a third that their population is somehow more resilient than ours (age, ethnicity, general health etc).

    I'm assuming their apparent success (leaving aside questions of whether that is just delaying the inevitable and whether that success is down to accident or design) is primarily down to the first reason but it's certainly possible 2 and 3 play a part - and the second possibly a major part.


    I am really not sure what treatment helps. The suggestion is that BoJo went into ICU earlier than a standard punter so maybe early access to oxygen helps.
    Germany does have a lot of recoveries but we don’t even bother to record them. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
    Some countries with notably good outcomes have been using chloroquine or hydoxychloroquine. I remember reading something about it being used in Germany but I can't be sure. There is a French professor who did two clinical trials on it but I believe neither had a proper control group. His argument was that it was unethical to do so.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    kingstonian said:

    Yeah, Belgium appear to have double the number of cases per 1m of population and double the death rate per 1m of population. Struggling to post the link but the data is on the Worldometers site

    But we are only counting about half of our deaths so that would put us neck and neck with Belgium, Italy.
    Except that per capita figures don't tell you much beyond the different sizes of the host population.
    That is hurting my head, can you rephrase
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    tailwindhome said:

    CNN aren't d1cking about


    Good that they are trying to hold that fraud to account
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,295
    edited April 2020
    kingstongraham said:

    This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.

    And there it is.

    Total registered deaths in week to 3rd April were 16,387 which is about 6,000 above the average of the last 5 years for that week. That in a week when the announced deaths went up by about 3,000.

    Edit: these figures are only England and Wales.
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    morstar said:

    So, we are where we are and arguing about the rights and wrongs of that has been a major focus of the thread the last few days.

    Looking forward, people are talking about removing restrictions. It seems to me that the talk seems to be as though the lifting of the restrictions is the beginning of the end and things will be getting back to normal. Not that we will need to maintain a level of restrictions on movement for months to come.

    Is that me misinterpreting the media or is that a fair assessment?

    I agree with you. The media have been terrible on this, exposing how little they know and mostly way behind the common man. The level on here from most, excluding our mini Piers Morgan & the Jeremy Corbyn sound-a-like, has been way ahead of where the media is.

    It's why I say we have a huge problem building up as we get to the realisation that there will be over 100k deaths over the next few months.
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    Police forces still tweeting about stopping and fining motorists because their car journeys were "not essential". There is no law/guidance saying that car journeys must be "essential", just for a "reasonable" reason.

    And you can't spread coronavirus if your sitting alone in your car.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,295
    mrfpb said:

    Police forces still tweeting about stopping and fining motorists because their car journeys were "not essential". There is no law/guidance saying that car journeys must be "essential", just for a "reasonable" reason.

    And you can't spread coronavirus if your sitting alone in your car.

    Ironically, until you get pulled over and a police officer tells you to wind down your window.
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    kingstongraham said:

    kingstongraham said:

    This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.

    And there it is.

    Total registered deaths in week to 3rd April were 16,387 which is about 6,000 above the average of the last 5 years for that week. That in a week when the announced deaths went up by about 3,000.

    Edit: these figures are only England and Wales.
    But they are still saying C19 deaths outside hospital are 10% of the total - no different to the level they were reporting last week.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,898
    edited April 2020
    nickice said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    Yes there are two possible explanations for Germany's low death rate - one that they have successfully limited the spread and two that they treat those infected more effectively. Ok maybe a third that their population is somehow more resilient than ours (age, ethnicity, general health etc).

    I'm assuming their apparent success (leaving aside questions of whether that is just delaying the inevitable and whether that success is down to accident or design) is primarily down to the first reason but it's certainly possible 2 and 3 play a part - and the second possibly a major part.


    I am really not sure what treatment helps. The suggestion is that BoJo went into ICU earlier than a standard punter so maybe early access to oxygen helps.
    Germany does have a lot of recoveries but we don’t even bother to record them. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
    Some countries with notably good outcomes have been using chloroquine or hydoxychloroquine. I remember reading something about it being used in Germany but I can't be sure. There is a French professor who did two clinical trials on it but I believe neither had a proper control group. His argument was that it was unethical to do so.
    There was a good Peter Foster thread on how doctors are effectively researching how to treat this in emergency conditions. It seems that some are still, amazingly, finding time to properly write up and publish their findings on top working under the increased load. Can't find it now as he's churning out a lot of tweets at the moment.
    surrey_commuter said:

    rjsterry said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    kingstonian said:

    Yeah, Belgium appear to have double the number of cases per 1m of population and double the death rate per 1m of population. Struggling to post the link but the data is on the Worldometers site

    But we are only counting about half of our deaths so that would put us neck and neck with Belgium, Italy.
    Except that per capita figures don't tell you much beyond the different sizes of the host population.
    That is hurting my head, can you rephrase
    John Burn Murdoch explains it more clearly than I can.

    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    mrfpb said:

    kingstongraham said:

    kingstongraham said:

    This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.

    And there it is.

    Total registered deaths in week to 3rd April were 16,387 which is about 6,000 above the average of the last 5 years for that week. That in a week when the announced deaths went up by about 3,000.

    Edit: these figures are only England and Wales.
    But they are still saying C19 deaths outside hospital are 10% of the total - no different to the level they were reporting last week.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825
    Would be an absolutely stunning achievement of the UK elderly care sector if they help keep deaths outside of hospital down to 10% of the overall death count, compared to the rest of Europe which has, as per figures above, running around the 40-50%.
    _
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,295
    mrfpb said:

    kingstongraham said:

    kingstongraham said:

    This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.

    And there it is.

    Total registered deaths in week to 3rd April were 16,387 which is about 6,000 above the average of the last 5 years for that week. That in a week when the announced deaths went up by about 3,000.

    Edit: these figures are only England and Wales.
    But they are still saying C19 deaths outside hospital are 10% of the total - no different to the level they were reporting last week.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825
    While not wishing to jump to conclusions, isn't the most likely explanation for such a quick and large jump in total deaths the undercounting of coronavirus deaths?

    Other factors may contribute, but equally I would expect other causes of death to be reducing because noone is out and about.

    Also looking at the figures by age, there is no real noticeable increase in deaths for those under 45, then a large increase for those over that age, peaking for those aged 75-84 with about 50% more than the average for the first 2 months of the year.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,295
    London in the week ending 3rd April had 134% more deaths than the average week in Jan/Feb.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited April 2020
    In relation to my increasing unpopularity as I continue to post on this thread:

    This thread is interesting:

    Public trust in central government has gone up, particularly in the UK, where 40% say they have more confidence in the Government than before the crisis (2/7)


    There are no significant differences in the findings between Conservatives and Labour voters overall. The UK has gone from one of the most divided nations to one of the most united (3/7)


    In the UK the public have become more positive towards business, central Government, public health agencies, the NHS, supermarkets and the banks than before the crisis (4/7)


    Since the crisis began there has been a collapse in confidence in the media across all four countries in the survey - the biggest fall being in the UK with a 21% net loss in confidence (5/7)




    I am plainly bucking the trend (of showing more trust in the gov't) and it is showing.
    _
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,469
    rick_chasey said:

    mrfpb said:

    kingstongraham said:

    kingstongraham said:

    This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.

    And there it is.

    Total registered deaths in week to 3rd April were 16,387 which is about 6,000 above the average of the last 5 years for that week. That in a week when the announced deaths went up by about 3,000.

    Edit: these figures are only England and Wales.
    But they are still saying C19 deaths outside hospital are 10% of the total - no different to the level they were reporting last week.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825
    Would be an absolutely stunning achievement of the UK elderly care sector if they help keep deaths outside of hospital down to 10% of the overall death count, compared to the rest of Europe which has, as per figures above, running around the 40-50%.
    So, what, you just don't believe the statistics now? Don't they quite fit your narrative?
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    rick_chasey said:

    mrfpb said:

    kingstongraham said:

    kingstongraham said:

    This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.

    And there it is.

    Total registered deaths in week to 3rd April were 16,387 which is about 6,000 above the average of the last 5 years for that week. That in a week when the announced deaths went up by about 3,000.

    Edit: these figures are only England and Wales.
    But they are still saying C19 deaths outside hospital are 10% of the total - no different to the level they were reporting last week.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825
    Would be an absolutely stunning achievement of the UK elderly care sector if they help keep deaths outside of hospital down to 10% of the overall death count, compared to the rest of Europe which has, as per figures above, running around the 40-50%.
    Alternatively, it could be that care homes are getting people to hospital before they die, as is usual practice (in my post upthread). But this will change if deaths per day continue to rise.
  • Jeremy.89
    Jeremy.89 Posts: 457
    My hot take...

    The government haven't done particularly well or particularly badly. Germany seems like it might have done better so far, but its probably too early to tell how things are gonna go long term. Interestingly ze Germans seem to be more relaxed in their enforcement of the lockdown. Almost like they are taking an evidence based approach, rather than crucifying anyone that dares lie on some grass well away from anyone else...

    Overall we are trusting of government because otherwise we would be driven crazy at this time.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    edited April 2020
    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    mrfpb said:

    kingstongraham said:

    kingstongraham said:

    This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.

    And there it is.

    Total registered deaths in week to 3rd April were 16,387 which is about 6,000 above the average of the last 5 years for that week. That in a week when the announced deaths went up by about 3,000.

    Edit: these figures are only England and Wales.
    But they are still saying C19 deaths outside hospital are 10% of the total - no different to the level they were reporting last week.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825
    Would be an absolutely stunning achievement of the UK elderly care sector if they help keep deaths outside of hospital down to 10% of the overall death count, compared to the rest of Europe which has, as per figures above, running around the 40-50%.
    So, what, you just don't believe the statistics now? Don't they quite fit your narrative?
    If it's true than great. The lead story on radio 6 news this morning was that there has been massive under-reporting on carehome deaths due to corona and channel 4 news ran a story last night that care homes are not recording corona related deaths as such.

    Take a look at this table again.



    As I said, it would be a fantastic achievement if the UK elderly care system was so much better than the rest of Europe.
    _
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,295
    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    mrfpb said:

    kingstongraham said:

    kingstongraham said:

    This is going to be an interesting and possibly sobering link to check when updated later today:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales

    It's 11 days behind to allow for registrations to happen, but the top line total number of deaths in the week ending 3rd April might give an indication of how above a normal year this year is. This will be for the week when recorded Covid19 deaths in hospital went from 759 to 3,605.

    And there it is.

    Total registered deaths in week to 3rd April were 16,387 which is about 6,000 above the average of the last 5 years for that week. That in a week when the announced deaths went up by about 3,000.

    Edit: these figures are only England and Wales.
    But they are still saying C19 deaths outside hospital are 10% of the total - no different to the level they were reporting last week.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52278825
    Would be an absolutely stunning achievement of the UK elderly care sector if they help keep deaths outside of hospital down to 10% of the overall death count, compared to the rest of Europe which has, as per figures above, running around the 40-50%.
    So, what, you just don't believe the statistics now? Don't they quite fit your narrative?
    I believe that about 3,500 of the extra 6,000 mentioned coronavirus on the death certificate. That is all that the statistics claim.

    I don't believe that there is some mystery cause of the additional 2,500 deaths during a pandemic. Coronavirus is the most likely cause of these, but it was not included on the death certificate, probably as there was no test.

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