The big Coronavirus thread

tailwindhome

First.Aspect said:

No, the best estimates are 5-10% of ours.

Ok then.

Stevo_666

First.Aspect said:

No, the best estimates are 5-10% of ours.

So still not as high as the Belgian numbers even counting care home deaths.

Dorset_Boy

Payment of the Small Business Rate grants seems to vary between councils. Some paid within hours of their applications going live at the end of March, other councils, such as Dorset, were slow opening applications and are then seemingly manually dealing with each one, rather than having an automated cross reference system with their Business rates system.

First.Aspect

Stevo_666 said:

First.Aspect said:

No, the best estimates are 5-10% of ours.

So still not as high as the Belgian numbers even counting care home deaths.

Exactly. Statistics are being tortured on this thread.

Uncertainty is certainly uncomfortable.

Pross

surrey_commuter said:

Pross said:

surrey_commuter said:

DeVlaeminck said:

Yes there are two possible explanations for Germany's low death rate - one that they have successfully limited the spread and two that they treat those infected more effectively. Ok maybe a third that their population is somehow more resilient than ours (age, ethnicity, general health etc).

I'm assuming their apparent success (leaving aside questions of whether that is just delaying the inevitable and whether that success is down to accident or design) is primarily down to the first reason but it's certainly possible 2 and 3 play a part - and the second possibly a major part.

I am really not sure what treatment helps. The suggestion is that BoJo went into ICU earlier than a standard punter so maybe early access to oxygen helps.
Germany does have a lot of recoveries but we don’t even bother to record them. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

That point on recoveries was raised in today's press conference. I think it was the CSO who answered and basically said we have recorded cases and recorded deaths so the difference between them is the number who have recovered.

So we are the only country in the World not counting recoveries?

We really are clueless.

Then again maybe I am the clueless one. we don’t know how many people have it, how many people have died from it so how on earth would we know how many have recovered.

Yeah, yeah, I know, we have never measured that number and it would be imperfect anyway with a difficult transition period so we won’t bother trying.

I see the benefit in knowing how many have died in assessing the effectiveness of our measures and in an ideal world we would know exactly how many people have had the virus but that's never going to happen.

However, I don't see what knowing how many recover shows you to be honest. Taking into account KG's point that there are those still effected eventually everyone who has had the virus either recovers or dies so it still seems reasonable that deducting deaths from known cases will give the known number of people who have recovered. For more real-time you could also deduct the known number of cases in hospital.

nickice

Macron said something about antibody tests and then said that very few French people have had it. I was only half watching it, though

Stevo_666

News on the vaccine front: 70 Coronavirus vaccines are in development, with 3 at the human trials stage:
https://time.com/5819887/coronavirus-vaccines-development-who/

Stevo_666

Quote from the BBC re: what Macron said:
"French President Emmanuel Macron has said France was not "sufficiently ready" for the outbreak of the new coronavirus.

In a televised address he said "we lacked protective clothing, gels, masks, like other countries...we have made difficult decisions".

He warned that hospitals were still under pressure in some parts of the country."

coopster_the_1st

Imperial College London's latest estimate of UK total infections

tailwindhome

Stevo_666 said:

First.Aspect said:

No, the best estimates are 5-10% of ours.

So still not as high as the Belgian numbers even counting care home deaths.

Not as high as Belgian numbers when comparing UK estimates to Belgian actuals.

But informative when the question asked is 'how come the Belgian death figures are higher than the UKs? '

The answer would seem to be that Coronavirus has made it's way into the care home sector in Belgium with tragic consequences.

coopster_the_1st

All modelled countries infection rates as of 12th April




Looks like a huge amount of pain awaiting Germany if less than 1% of their population is infected

surrey_commuter

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

First.Aspect said:

No, the best estimates are 5-10% of ours.

So still not as high as the Belgian numbers even counting care home deaths.

Not as high as Belgian numbers when comparing UK estimates to Belgian actuals.

But informative when the question asked is 'how come the Belgian death figures are higher than the UKs? '

The answer would seem to be that Coronavirus has made it's way into the care home sector in Belgium with tragic consequences.

Luckily that can not happen here

surrey_commuter

DM headline “the worse is yet to come, even though deal toll falls for third day in a row”

Any readers with two cells to rub together will be confused.

The others are going to sh1t themselves on Wednesday

surrey_commuter

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

First.Aspect said:

No, the best estimates are 5-10% of ours.

So still not as high as the Belgian numbers even counting care home deaths.

Not as high as Belgian numbers when comparing UK estimates to Belgian actuals.

But informative when the question asked is 'how come the Belgian death figures are higher than the UKs? '

The answer would seem to be that Coronavirus has made it's way into the care home sector in Belgium with tragic consequences.

I am doubting my own sanity.

Can somebody give a source for Belgium’s C19 death toll being higher than the UK

Pross

surrey_commuter said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

First.Aspect said:

No, the best estimates are 5-10% of ours.

So still not as high as the Belgian numbers even counting care home deaths.

Not as high as Belgian numbers when comparing UK estimates to Belgian actuals.

But informative when the question asked is 'how come the Belgian death figures are higher than the UKs? '

The answer would seem to be that Coronavirus has made it's way into the care home sector in Belgium with tragic consequences.

I am doubting my own sanity.

Can somebody give a source for Belgium’s C19 death toll being higher than the UK

They must mean per capita. I'm learning that people tend to use a metric that best supports their opinion

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Edit - that does seem to be about double the rate of deaths per capita though (rough a third of the total number with a sixth of the population).

kingstongraham

Pross said:

surrey_commuter said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

First.Aspect said:

No, the best estimates are 5-10% of ours.

So still not as high as the Belgian numbers even counting care home deaths.

Not as high as Belgian numbers when comparing UK estimates to Belgian actuals.

But informative when the question asked is 'how come the Belgian death figures are higher than the UKs? '

The answer would seem to be that Coronavirus has made it's way into the care home sector in Belgium with tragic consequences.

I am doubting my own sanity.

Can somebody give a source for Belgium’s C19 death toll being higher than the UK

They must mean per capita. I'm learning that people tend to use a metric that best supports their opinion

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

This is true, and it's strange that people have confident opinions when the experts don't. Mine change all the time.

nickice

coopster_the_1st said:

All modelled countries infection rates as of 12th April




Looks like a huge amount of pain awaiting Germany if less than 1% of their population is infected

Macron said that according to antibody tests only a small number of people have contracted the virus in France. The thing is, especially in young people, it's been very difficult to detect antibodies which is why the UK hasn't rolled out antibody testing.

Even 10-15% is going to make a big difference to transmission.

kingstonian

Yeah, Belgium appear to have double the number of cases per 1m of population and double the death rate per 1m of population. Struggling to post the link but the data is on the Worldometers site

First.Aspect

kingstongraham said:

Pross said:

surrey_commuter said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

First.Aspect said:

No, the best estimates are 5-10% of ours.

So still not as high as the Belgian numbers even counting care home deaths.

Not as high as Belgian numbers when comparing UK estimates to Belgian actuals.

But informative when the question asked is 'how come the Belgian death figures are higher than the UKs? '

The answer would seem to be that Coronavirus has made it's way into the care home sector in Belgium with tragic consequences.

I am doubting my own sanity.

Can somebody give a source for Belgium’s C19 death toll being higher than the UK

They must mean per capita. I'm learning that people tend to use a metric that best supports their opinion

https://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

This is true, and it's strange that people have confident opinions when the experts don't. Mine change all the time.

This is exactly my point. If someone makes another argument it will likely be possible to pluck some other comparator out of the table to rebut it.

There's an interesting article just popped up on the guardian website on Ireland vs UK stats. Even the experts have to agree to disagree for the next 2-3 years.

surrey_commuter

kingstonian said:

Yeah, Belgium appear to have double the number of cases per 1m of population and double the death rate per 1m of population. Struggling to post the link but the data is on the Worldometers site

But we are only counting about half of our deaths so that would put us neck and neck with Belgium, Italy.

ddraver

Stevo_666 said:

Quote from the BBC re: what Macron said:
"French President Emmanuel Macron has said France was not "sufficiently ready" for the outbreak of the new coronavirus.

In a televised address he said "we lacked protective clothing, gels, masks, like other countries...we have made difficult decisions".

He warned that hospitals were still under pressure in some parts of the country."

This right here is exactly why we are no longer capable of having sensible political discussions in this country...

First.Aspect

surrey_commuter said:

kingstonian said:

Yeah, Belgium appear to have double the number of cases per 1m of population and double the death rate per 1m of population. Struggling to post the link but the data is on the Worldometers site

But we are only counting about half of our deaths so that would put us neck and neck with Belgium, Italy.

Are we? Or about 90%.

Depends which expert you listen to.

surrey_commuter

ddraver said:

Stevo_666 said:

Quote from the BBC re: what Macron said:
"French President Emmanuel Macron has said France was not "sufficiently ready" for the outbreak of the new coronavirus.

In a televised address he said "we lacked protective clothing, gels, masks, like other countries...we have made difficult decisions".

He warned that hospitals were still under pressure in some parts of the country."

This right here is exactly why we are no longer capable of having sensible political discussions in this country...

I would say that most people in Cake Stop are here for debate and discussion. Some people are more tribal and some are trolling it is easy enough to engage with them as little as you wish.

Stick around and you will figure out the people on here who are genuinely knowledgeable in certain areas

Pross

surrey_commuter said:

kingstonian said:

Yeah, Belgium appear to have double the number of cases per 1m of population and double the death rate per 1m of population. Struggling to post the link but the data is on the Worldometers site

But we are only counting about half of our deaths so that would put us neck and neck with Belgium, Italy.

Is that the case or have you made up a number? I can't imagine 11,000 have died at home or in care homes.

tailwindhome

...

tailwindhome

Meanwhile

Pross

FFS how can they even count some of them as officials?

pblakeney

That's America open for business then with that cherry picked expert panel.
Open to contagion too.

john80

tailwindhome said:

Meanwhile

The only reason I would turn up to that meeting is tosee if you could trick iwanka into giving you a blowjob.

rjsterry

surrey_commuter said:

kingstonian said:

Yeah, Belgium appear to have double the number of cases per 1m of population and double the death rate per 1m of population. Struggling to post the link but the data is on the Worldometers site

But we are only counting about half of our deaths so that would put us neck and neck with Belgium, Italy.

Except that per capita figures don't tell you much beyond the different sizes of the host population.