The big Coronavirus thread
Comments
-
I suppose the US could at least give guidance to everyone else as to whether it's too early to open everything back up. Hopefully for the sake of their population the answer will be no.0
-
Seems other European countries, not just Belgium, are including care home deaths in their figures.
Running at 40-50 % of their totals
So possible explanations are
- UK have successfully kept it out of care homes
- UK underestimate the deaths in care homes
- UK are categorising deaths differently... C19 not on death cert
“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
ddraver said:
This right here is exactly why we are no longer capable of having sensible political discussions in this country...Stevo_666 said:Quote from the BBC re: what Macron said:
"French President Emmanuel Macron has said France was not "sufficiently ready" for the outbreak of the new coronavirus.
In a televised address he said "we lacked protective clothing, gels, masks, like other countries...we have made difficult decisions".
He warned that hospitals were still under pressure in some parts of the country."ddraver said:
This right here is exactly why we are no longer capable of having sensible political discussions in this country...Stevo_666 said:Quote from the BBC re: what Macron said:
"French President Emmanuel Macron has said France was not "sufficiently ready" for the outbreak of the new coronavirus.
In a televised address he said "we lacked protective clothing, gels, masks, like other countries...we have made difficult decisions".
He warned that hospitals were still under pressure in some parts of the country."
I was simply pointing out that the UK is not alone in having issues dealing with the pandemic.ddraver said:
This right here is exactly why we are no longer capable of having sensible political discussions in this country...Stevo_666 said:Quote from the BBC re: what Macron said:
"French President Emmanuel Macron has said France was not "sufficiently ready" for the outbreak of the new coronavirus.
In a televised address he said "we lacked protective clothing, gels, masks, like other countries...we have made difficult decisions".
He warned that hospitals were still under pressure in some parts of the country."
Explain how that makes us incapable of debate in this country."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-10/coronavirus-infection-can-do-lasting-damage-to-the-heart-liver
Some cheerful news to go to bed with; coronavirus may well be doing lasting damage to the heart and liver.0 -
Sometimes a bit of balance is needed, as I'm sure you well know.surrey_commuter said:
I would say that most people in Cake Stop are here for debate and discussion. Some people are more tribal and some are trolling it is easy enough to engage with them as little as you wish.ddraver said:
This right here is exactly why we are no longer capable of having sensible political discussions in this country...Stevo_666 said:Quote from the BBC re: what Macron said:
"French President Emmanuel Macron has said France was not "sufficiently ready" for the outbreak of the new coronavirus.
In a televised address he said "we lacked protective clothing, gels, masks, like other countries...we have made difficult decisions".
He warned that hospitals were still under pressure in some parts of the country."
Stick around and you will figure out the people on here who are genuinely knowledgeable in certain areas"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Care home stats coming through, right?surrey_commuter said:DM headline “the worse is yet to come, even though deal toll falls for third day in a row”
Any readers with two cells to rub together will be confused.
The others are going to censored themselves on Wednesday0 -
I do worry that the carehome numbers are really quite awful. I read somewhere, may be wrong, that just under half of the reported French deaths were care home deaths, which would mean...
Their carers aren’t getting any rounds of applause either.
Ugh.0 -
On hospital deaths U.K. is 3K more dead that France on a days since 50 deaths basis
This week is gonna get really ugly.0 -
So 13% of care homes have reportedly had outbreaks in the U.K.
Here are the survival rates from other care homes across Europe.
0 -
We have definitely not kept it out of UK care homes.tailwindhome said:Seems other European countries, not just Belgium, are including care home deaths in their figures.
Running at 40-50 % of their totals
So possible explanations are
- UK have successfully kept it out of care homes
- UK underestimate the deaths in care homes
- UK are categorising deaths differently... C19 not on death cert1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
No you weren't.Stevo_666 said:
I was simply pointing out that the UK is not alone in having issues dealing with the pandemic.ddraver said:
This right here is exactly why we are no longer capable of having sensible political discussions in this country...Stevo_666 said:Quote from the BBC re: what Macron said:
"French President Emmanuel Macron has said France was not "sufficiently ready" for the outbreak of the new coronavirus.
In a televised address he said "we lacked protective clothing, gels, masks, like other countries...we have made difficult decisions".
He warned that hospitals were still under pressure in some parts of the country."
Explain how that makes us incapable of debate in this country.
You were dishonestly taking three quotes massively out of context in order to totally twist what Macron was saying.
You were doing nothing different from a crap film taking the quote, "Don't go and see this film" and turning it into "go and see this film"
It's disappointing, I genuinely thought you were better than this Steve... Oh well.
We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
- @ddraver0 -
I thought they said at today's briefing that they have them but they take longer to process so they don't use them for the daily update briefing and most other countries are the same.rick_chasey said:
Care home stats coming through, right?surrey_commuter said:DM headline “the worse is yet to come, even though deal toll falls for third day in a row”
Any readers with two cells to rub together will be confused.
The others are going to censored themselves on Wednesday
I'd be genuinely shocked if we are anywhere near those numbers in France and Belgium. A lot of our care homes are residential rather than nursing and so if any of their service users got I'll I would have thought they would go to hospital. I've heard of a few outbreaks in Scotland and the home up north where there have been 13 deaths. I suspect we'd have heard of more if it was widespread.0 -
You not a very good mind reader. Not my fault if you misinterpreted my post.ddraver said:
No you weren't.Stevo_666 said:
I was simply pointing out that the UK is not alone in having issues dealing with the pandemic.ddraver said:
This right here is exactly why we are no longer capable of having sensible political discussions in this country...Stevo_666 said:Quote from the BBC re: what Macron said:
"French President Emmanuel Macron has said France was not "sufficiently ready" for the outbreak of the new coronavirus.
In a televised address he said "we lacked protective clothing, gels, masks, like other countries...we have made difficult decisions".
He warned that hospitals were still under pressure in some parts of the country."
Explain how that makes us incapable of debate in this country.
You were dishonestly taking three quotes massively out of context in order to totally twist what Macron was saying.
You were doing nothing different from a censored film taking the quote, "Don't go and see this film" and turning it into "go and see this film"
It's disappointing, I genuinely thought you were better than this Steve... Oh well.
You are sometimes capable of sensible debate, so try again."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Bolloxrick_chasey said:https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2020-04-10/coronavirus-infection-can-do-lasting-damage-to-the-heart-liver
Some cheerful news to go to bed with; coronavirus may well be doing lasting damage to the heart and liver.0 -
This is why you get accused of being overly negative. Without knowing how many care home deaths we've had that Tweet is meaningless. For example, if we've had 500 deaths in care homes then we are still lower than France. Does that then mean we are 'better' than France?rick_chasey said:On hospital deaths U.K. is 3K more dead that France on a days since 50 deaths basis
This week is gonna get really ugly.
As I said earlier people seem keen to find a metric that backs their view and it now seems to be that measuring where deaths occur is de rigeur.
Can you also explain what you mean with your last sentence? It feels like you've posted similar every week. Is the current situation not ugly enough? It sometimes feels like you want our rate to get higher to justify your hysteria levels.0 -
I'm beginning to think that comparisons with other countries - either of the 'they're doing it better' or the 'at least we aren't doing as bad as them' type - don't tell you very much at all other than different things are different. There are too many variables in the way the data is recorded and in external factors affecting the data to be able to draw useful conclusions.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition2 -
I said pretty much the same earlier on, so agree. It will likely take time before many of these things become clearer.rjsterry said:I'm beginning to think that comparisons with other countries - either of the 'they're doing it better' or the 'at least we aren't doing as bad as them' type - don't tell you very much at all other than different things are different. There are too many variables in the way the data is recorded and in external factors affecting the data to be able to draw useful conclusions.
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Exactly. I think I said earlier but they're possibly more use with some more detailed analysis when / if there's a second wave.rjsterry said:I'm beginning to think that comparisons with other countries - either of the 'they're doing it better' or the 'at least we aren't doing as bad as them' type - don't tell you very much at all other than different things are different. There are too many variables in the way the data is recorded and in external factors affecting the data to be able to draw useful conclusions.
0 -
I woke up this morning, looked out the window and was anticipating ugliness. What a nice surprise, sun and blue sky accompanied by the blackbirds chorus.0
-
I meant more in terms of working out what the care home deaths are.
If survival rates in homes who have had an outbreak are around half, a bit below and 13% odd care homes have an outbreak, we’re looking at over 1 in 20 in care homes dying.
And that’s before you get to other homes that could yet be affected.
0 -
Care home stats gonna come through.Pross said:
This is why you get accused of being overly negative. Without knowing how many care home deaths we've had that Tweet is meaningless. For example, if we've had 500 deaths in care homes then we are still lower than France. Does that then mean we are 'better' than France?rick_chasey said:On hospital deaths U.K. is 3K more dead that France on a days since 50 deaths basis
This week is gonna get really ugly.
As I said earlier people seem keen to find a metric that backs their view and it now seems to be that measuring where deaths occur is de rigeur.
Can you also explain what you mean with your last sentence? It feels like you've posted similar every week. Is the current situation not ugly enough? It sometimes feels like you want our rate to get higher to justify your hysteria levels.
Last week I was worried the U.K. deaths would not decelerate that fast and so the numbers would get big fast. Fairly sure that was accurate. I’m not digging around for figures here. They are there in black and white. Reported in every major news outlet.
Now I think a lot of us, me included, have totally forgotten about care homes. A bit of digging and you find they are even harder hit re kit and staff shortages.
Then you look at their survival rates with an outbreak and you fear how big the numbers will be.
I’m not ‘hyping it up’. The numbers of dead are getting really very big and they are currently continuing to do so.
We are currently still in the “going to get worse before better” phase.0 -
So, we are where we are and arguing about the rights and wrongs of that has been a major focus of the thread the last few days.
Looking forward, people are talking about removing restrictions. It seems to me that the talk seems to be as though the lifting of the restrictions is the beginning of the end and things will be getting back to normal. Not that we will need to maintain a level of restrictions on movement for months to come.
Is that me misinterpreting the media or is that a fair assessment?0 -
Also looks like the govt has a scrapped the F1 ventilator scheme and Drs from nations who took part in the EU bulk purchasing scheme for PPE (Britain decline three times to join) get their first delivery today.0
-
Entirely fair.morstar said:So, we are where we are and arguing about the rights and wrongs of that has been a major focus of the thread the last few days.
Looking forward, people are talking about removing restrictions. It seems to me that the talk seems to be as though the lifting of the restrictions is the beginning of the end and things will be getting back to normal. Not that we will need to maintain a level of restrictions on movement for months to come.
Is that me misinterpreting the media or is that a fair assessment?
0 -
No there is a fair bit of head in the sand going on about how we get out of lockdown. If those prev estimates that only around 5% are infected so far are correct then we have along way to go.morstar said:So, we are where we are and arguing about the rights and wrongs of that has been a major focus of the thread the last few days.
Looking forward, people are talking about removing restrictions. It seems to me that the talk seems to be as though the lifting of the restrictions is the beginning of the end and things will be getting back to normal. Not that we will need to maintain a level of restrictions on movement for months to come.
Is that me misinterpreting the media or is that a fair assessment?- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
I think you mean the CPAP, not ventilator.rick_chasey said:Also looks like the govt has a scrapped the F1 ventilator scheme and Drs from nations who took part in the EU bulk purchasing scheme for PPE (Britain decline three times to join) get their first delivery today.
0 -
interesting article on immunity...
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/opinion/coronavirus-immunity.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
one of the linked references on vaccines...
https://www.pnas.org/content/pnas/early/2020/03/27/2005456117.full.pdf
the nyt turned off the paywall on their cv articles, there're quite a few worth reading, nicolas kristof's on the situation in new york together with video is brutal
my bike - faster than god's and twice as shiny0 -
I don't there's anyone here who doesn't think the numbers are bid, scary and going to get worse. There is however signs that the rate of growth is at least slowing.rick_chasey said:
Care home stats gonna come through.Pross said:
This is why you get accused of being overly negative. Without knowing how many care home deaths we've had that Tweet is meaningless. For example, if we've had 500 deaths in care homes then we are still lower than France. Does that then mean we are 'better' than France?rick_chasey said:On hospital deaths U.K. is 3K more dead that France on a days since 50 deaths basis
This week is gonna get really ugly.
As I said earlier people seem keen to find a metric that backs their view and it now seems to be that measuring where deaths occur is de rigeur.
Can you also explain what you mean with your last sentence? It feels like you've posted similar every week. Is the current situation not ugly enough? It sometimes feels like you want our rate to get higher to justify your hysteria levels.
Last week I was worried the U.K. deaths would not decelerate that fast and so the numbers would get big fast. Fairly sure that was accurate. I’m not digging around for figures here. They are there in black and white. Reported in every major news outlet.
Now I think a lot of us, me included, have totally forgotten about care homes. A bit of digging and you find they are even harder hit re kit and staff shortages.
Then you look at their survival rates with an outbreak and you fear how big the numbers will be.
I’m not ‘hyping it up’. The numbers of dead are getting really very big and they are currently continuing to do so.
We are currently still in the “going to get worse before better” phase.
As for care homes, if you look back early on in this thread I was expressing concerns about the care sector and PPE supplies there as my wife works in that area. At the very start of lockdown they were forced to take back a service user who had been in hospital and who had started having some mental health issues that their light care environment isn't set up to cope with. There are no places in any local homes that provide for more high level care (which could be a good sign as if there are no empty beds it might mean there aren't any deaths but it could be they aren't taking new people in).0 -
Re: care homes.
ONS have published weekly stats on community deaths retrospectively for the last two weeks. It added approx 10% to each weeks total.
For res care it's been practice for people to move to hospital, or for end of life nursing to come in and help home staff manage.
Admissions to hospital have been massive restricted, and I believe EOL care is also overstretched, so care home staff will having to deal with deaths in a way they haven't before.
In Spain there were reports a couple of weeks ago of the army finding the dead and living residents abandoned in care homes. We haven't got there yet, but no can promise we won't.
There are also reports of health services writing to care agencies telling them to put DNR notices in place en-masse for their clients, which is a real scandal.0 -
My thinking too.pangolin said:
No there is a fair bit of head in the sand going on about how we get out of lockdown. If those prev estimates that only around 5% are infected so far are correct then we have along way to go.morstar said:So, we are where we are and arguing about the rights and wrongs of that has been a major focus of the thread the last few days.
Looking forward, people are talking about removing restrictions. It seems to me that the talk seems to be as though the lifting of the restrictions is the beginning of the end and things will be getting back to normal. Not that we will need to maintain a level of restrictions on movement for months to come.
Is that me misinterpreting the media or is that a fair assessment?
“The steps we have taken are working so we will cut back on them” seems a bit silly and premature.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0
