The big Coronavirus thread

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  • Still too early to say though?
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,931

    Still too early to say though?


    Yes, to a degree, but given my comment about half-term, there is some reason to think that there's a chink of light, given how long a high infection rate has been going on, and that many of those in hospital are there because they have chosen not to get vaccinated.
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,079
    Six omicron cases in Scotland. All picked up in the community.
  • Still too early to say though?


    Yes, to a degree, but given my comment about half-term, there is some reason to think that there's a chink of light, given how long a high infection rate has been going on, and that many of those in hospital are there because they have chosen not to get vaccinated.
    I think the people in Germany are probably in hospital because they have chosen not to get the vaccine too.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,931

    Six omicron cases in Scotland. All picked up in the community.


    I think it's out there and going to spread quite rapidly. My hunch is that it's not going to be a big deal. (You can quote me on that at a later date if I'm wrong and still alive.)

    A bit waffly, but worth a watch, with the finer on fast forward, for a bit of perspective. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cdkCVeWc1pQ
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,740



    Genuinely too early to say.



    Still a bit early to tell.

    The infections graphs really need to be put alongside deaths and hospital admissions.
    I accept your point but it does depend on what you're looking for. As GB and US found out in Spring, a 'Pingdemic' can be just as bad economically as a pandemic. Though thankfully, with far fewer deaths*.


    (*yes I know Piers/Neil/Hippie living in a field etc...)
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,931
    ddraver said:



    Genuinely too early to say.



    Still a bit early to tell.

    The infections graphs really need to be put alongside deaths and hospital admissions.
    I accept your point but it does depend on what you're looking for. As GB and US found out in Spring, a 'Pingdemic' can be just as bad economically as a pandemic. Though thankfully, with far fewer deaths*.


    (*yes I know Piers/Neil/Hippie living in a field etc...)

    Yes, but at that time we'd only just got started on first vaccinations, and the ultra caution was justified. I think caution is still justified, but the degree of caution should increasingly reflect the hospitalisation/death rate, IMHO, with my expertise in music giving me the relevant authority to make such pronouncements.
  • mully79
    mully79 Posts: 904
    infection graphs need to be alongside hospital admissions, deaths and vaccine status.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,294
    edited November 2021
    I think it's uncontroversial to say that our higher vaccine uptake has made a massive difference. This is probably partly because it was SO bad here in January/February when vaccines were first rolling out. So if you think about it, the best way to save lives this winter through vaccination is to have lots of deaths last winter, and no partisan culture war about getting the vaccine, and we've therefore hit the sweet spot.
  • The big problem here is how long does it take to monitor a strain to know it's a problem? It's a bit bloody late then to take counter measures as it's already spread across the World akin to the original strain.

    Hygiene, face masks, keep a safe distance if viable and if you don't already, learn to breathe through your nose.

  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,465

    Six omicron cases in Scotland. All picked up in the community.

    Good job Sturgeon hasn't ruled out closing the border with England, then.
  • So glad someone's here to remind us about this new innovative way of breathing we can all try. If it's new to you, you'll find it makes eating and drinking easier too. Try it, you might like it!
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,740

    I think it's uncontroversial to say that our higher vaccine uptake has made a massive difference.

    Higher than who, sorry?

    ddraver said:



    Genuinely too early to say.



    Still a bit early to tell.

    The infections graphs really need to be put alongside deaths and hospital admissions.
    I accept your point but it does depend on what you're looking for. As GB and US found out in Spring, a 'Pingdemic' can be just as bad economically as a pandemic. Though thankfully, with far fewer deaths*.


    (*yes I know Piers/Neil/Hippie living in a field etc...)

    Yes, but at that time we'd only just got started on first vaccinations, and the ultra caution was justified. I think caution is still justified, but the degree of caution should increasingly reflect the hospitalisation/death rate, IMHO, with my expertise in music giving me the relevant authority to make such pronouncements.
    Well that will be the decision this time round. Are we prepared to, for example, sit next to someone at work who is positive for COVID regardless of how symptomatic they are (assuming we're both double/triple jabbed), as we are used to doing with colds for example.

    Same goes for be in a pub with, stand behind in supermarket queue etc...
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,465
    ddraver said:

    I think it's uncontroversial to say that our higher vaccine uptake has made a massive difference.

    Higher than who, sorry?

    ddraver said:



    Genuinely too early to say.



    Still a bit early to tell.

    The infections graphs really need to be put alongside deaths and hospital admissions.
    I accept your point but it does depend on what you're looking for. As GB and US found out in Spring, a 'Pingdemic' can be just as bad economically as a pandemic. Though thankfully, with far fewer deaths*.


    (*yes I know Piers/Neil/Hippie living in a field etc...)

    Yes, but at that time we'd only just got started on first vaccinations, and the ultra caution was justified. I think caution is still justified, but the degree of caution should increasingly reflect the hospitalisation/death rate, IMHO, with my expertise in music giving me the relevant authority to make such pronouncements.
    Well that will be the decision this time round. Are we prepared to, for example, sit next to someone at work who is positive for COVID regardless of how symptomatic they are (assuming we're both double/triple jabbed), as we are used to doing with colds for example.

    Same goes for be in a pub with, stand behind in supermarket queue etc...
    I don't know about you, but I was always repulsed by people in crowded public places sniffing, sneezing and otherwise spreading their colds. If there is one thing I hope will never ever be acceptable again, it is this behaviour.

    Whether or not Covid will ever be on a par rather depends whether or not the consequences of catching it are on a par, I would say.
  • ddraver said:

    I think it's uncontroversial to say that our higher vaccine uptake has made a massive difference.

    Higher than who, sorry?

    ddraver said:



    Genuinely too early to say.



    Still a bit early to tell.

    The infections graphs really need to be put alongside deaths and hospital admissions.
    I accept your point but it does depend on what you're looking for. As GB and US found out in Spring, a 'Pingdemic' can be just as bad economically as a pandemic. Though thankfully, with far fewer deaths*.


    (*yes I know Piers/Neil/Hippie living in a field etc...)

    Yes, but at that time we'd only just got started on first vaccinations, and the ultra caution was justified. I think caution is still justified, but the degree of caution should increasingly reflect the hospitalisation/death rate, IMHO, with my expertise in music giving me the relevant authority to make such pronouncements.
    Well that will be the decision this time round. Are we prepared to, for example, sit next to someone at work who is positive for COVID regardless of how symptomatic they are (assuming we're both double/triple jabbed), as we are used to doing with colds for example.

    Same goes for be in a pub with, stand behind in supermarket queue etc...
    I am surprised businesses don't insist on vaccine passports and see if it helps trade
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,079

    ddraver said:

    I think it's uncontroversial to say that our higher vaccine uptake has made a massive difference.

    Higher than who, sorry?

    ddraver said:



    Genuinely too early to say.



    Still a bit early to tell.

    The infections graphs really need to be put alongside deaths and hospital admissions.
    I accept your point but it does depend on what you're looking for. As GB and US found out in Spring, a 'Pingdemic' can be just as bad economically as a pandemic. Though thankfully, with far fewer deaths*.


    (*yes I know Piers/Neil/Hippie living in a field etc...)

    Yes, but at that time we'd only just got started on first vaccinations, and the ultra caution was justified. I think caution is still justified, but the degree of caution should increasingly reflect the hospitalisation/death rate, IMHO, with my expertise in music giving me the relevant authority to make such pronouncements.
    Well that will be the decision this time round. Are we prepared to, for example, sit next to someone at work who is positive for COVID regardless of how symptomatic they are (assuming we're both double/triple jabbed), as we are used to doing with colds for example.

    Same goes for be in a pub with, stand behind in supermarket queue etc...
    I am surprised businesses don't insist on vaccine passports and see if it helps trade
    Do you know how many pubs had banned smoking before the smoking ban?
  • ddraver said:

    I think it's uncontroversial to say that our higher vaccine uptake has made a massive difference.

    Higher than who, sorry?



    Germany, Austria.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,740
    edited November 2021

    ddraver said:

    I think it's uncontroversial to say that our higher vaccine uptake has made a massive difference.

    Higher than who, sorry?



    Germany, Austria.





    So...what has helped, sorry? Helped in having more hospitalisations and more infections? Until...yesterday
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • Scotland's deputy first minister John Swinney told the BBC: "We obviously have some travel history on some of the cases, I don't have all of that detail available to me at this stage, but on some of the cases we are aware that there is no travel history involved."

    He added: "What that tells us is that there must be a degree of community transmission of this particular strain of the virus in the absence of a direct travel connection for some of the cases in the southern African area.

    "So that obviously opens up further challenges for us in terms of interrupting the spread of this particular strain of the virus and that will be the focus of the contact tracing operation that is under way already."
    https://news.sky.com/story/covid-19-six-omicron-variant-cases-detected-in-scotland-authorities-say-12482070
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    The genie is out the bottle with the new strain.
  • ddraver said:

    I think it's uncontroversial to say that our higher vaccine uptake has made a massive difference.

    Higher than who, sorry?

    ddraver said:



    Genuinely too early to say.



    Still a bit early to tell.

    The infections graphs really need to be put alongside deaths and hospital admissions.
    I accept your point but it does depend on what you're looking for. As GB and US found out in Spring, a 'Pingdemic' can be just as bad economically as a pandemic. Though thankfully, with far fewer deaths*.


    (*yes I know Piers/Neil/Hippie living in a field etc...)

    Yes, but at that time we'd only just got started on first vaccinations, and the ultra caution was justified. I think caution is still justified, but the degree of caution should increasingly reflect the hospitalisation/death rate, IMHO, with my expertise in music giving me the relevant authority to make such pronouncements.
    Well that will be the decision this time round. Are we prepared to, for example, sit next to someone at work who is positive for COVID regardless of how symptomatic they are (assuming we're both double/triple jabbed), as we are used to doing with colds for example.

    Same goes for be in a pub with, stand behind in supermarket queue etc...
    I am surprised businesses don't insist on vaccine passports and see if it helps trade
    Do you know how many pubs had banned smoking before the smoking ban?
    No, but a quick Google surprised me that Wetherspoons did.

    If you have the numbers broken down between pubs/restaurants and fags/pipes/cigars that would be good
  • ddraver said:



    ddraver said:

    I think it's uncontroversial to say that our higher vaccine uptake has made a massive difference.

    Higher than who, sorry?



    Germany, Austria.





    So...what has helped, sorry? Helped in having more hospitalisations and more infections? Until...yesterday
    Fewer deaths per infection.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,931

    ddraver said:



    ddraver said:

    I think it's uncontroversial to say that our higher vaccine uptake has made a massive difference.

    Higher than who, sorry?



    Germany, Austria.





    So...what has helped, sorry? Helped in having more hospitalisations and more infections? Until...yesterday
    Fewer deaths per infection.

    Actually, that would be a vaguely interesting metric to see in graph form.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,112
    If Omicron is a game changer in terms of avoiding existing immunity - and I realise that has yet to be determined - are we looking at restarting the vaccination programme from scratch or just modifying the boosters from now on ?




    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • I think they hope to have a revised vaccine in 3 month's time.
  • If Omicron is a game changer in terms of avoiding existing immunity - and I realise that has yet to be determined - are we looking at restarting the vaccination programme from scratch or just modifying the boosters from now on ?




    With the flu, people in vulnerable groups get a jab each year to cover evolutionary change. I don't see why Covid will be any different. The groups deemed to be required covering will be interesting though. I would imagine most sane people would want it, that's a lot of people.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,931

    If Omicron is a game changer in terms of avoiding existing immunity - and I realise that has yet to be determined - are we looking at restarting the vaccination programme from scratch or just modifying the boosters from now on ?





    Moderna say they have already started working on it and that it shouldn't take that long. Obviously it's in their commercial interest to sound upbeat (share price, and all that), but I doubt if they'd risk their reputation by telling big fibs.
  • ddraver said:



    ddraver said:

    I think it's uncontroversial to say that our higher vaccine uptake has made a massive difference.

    Higher than who, sorry?



    Germany, Austria.





    So...what has helped, sorry? Helped in having more hospitalisations and more infections? Until...yesterday
    Fewer deaths per infection.

    Actually, that would be a vaguely interesting metric to see in graph form.


    Obviously also massive pinch of salt needed regarding number of tests and how the positive test number relates to actual infections.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,897

    ddraver said:

    I think it's uncontroversial to say that our higher vaccine uptake has made a massive difference.

    Higher than who, sorry?

    ddraver said:



    Genuinely too early to say.



    Still a bit early to tell.

    The infections graphs really need to be put alongside deaths and hospital admissions.
    I accept your point but it does depend on what you're looking for. As GB and US found out in Spring, a 'Pingdemic' can be just as bad economically as a pandemic. Though thankfully, with far fewer deaths*.


    (*yes I know Piers/Neil/Hippie living in a field etc...)

    Yes, but at that time we'd only just got started on first vaccinations, and the ultra caution was justified. I think caution is still justified, but the degree of caution should increasingly reflect the hospitalisation/death rate, IMHO, with my expertise in music giving me the relevant authority to make such pronouncements.
    Well that will be the decision this time round. Are we prepared to, for example, sit next to someone at work who is positive for COVID regardless of how symptomatic they are (assuming we're both double/triple jabbed), as we are used to doing with colds for example.

    Same goes for be in a pub with, stand behind in supermarket queue etc...
    I don't know about you, but I was always repulsed by people in crowded public places sniffing, sneezing and otherwise spreading their colds. If there is one thing I hope will never ever be acceptable again, it is this behaviour.

    Whether or not Covid will ever be on a par rather depends whether or not the consequences of catching it are on a par, I would say.
    Amen.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Ben6899
    Ben6899 Posts: 9,686

    Pross said:

    There is a middle ground with scepticism - certainly for kids it's questionable whether the vaccine is in their individual interests.

    I think some of you are too harsh on vaccine refusers - of which I am not one - it's individual choice as any medical treatment should be. Surely it is quite a step for the state to pretty much insist you are injected with a series of vaccines which are fairly new and which do have some serious side affects in admittedly rare cases.

    There was a guy on the radio saying he had had his first jab - developed a headache which had never totally gone so he's decided against having his second or any boosters - he's being told by the doctors it's unrelated to the vaccine but is he really acting unreasonably?

    There is a middle ground - it's that without getting the vaccine there are things that you can't do because you pose an increased risk to public health. How far that goes is a political choice, depending on the circumstances. I don't think it is proportionate currently to stop people doing everything, but it does make sense to stop them doing jobs where they are breathing over vulnerable people.

    If every piece of public health guidance became law, most pubs would go out of business.
    This. I'm not supportive of compulsory vaccination (and don't think it's viable anyway - I guess we'll see with Austria). However, if you choose it's not for you then you have to accept you miss out on some of the privileges.
    It does depend what you consider to be privileges. Working in medicine, visiting Sainsbury's, using public transport, visiting a friend's house.


    They're all privileges. Always have been.
    Ben

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