The big Coronavirus thread

rjsterry

True, but not that different from my general impression of the way things are done in those countries. When in Rome... It now seems to be working, which is surely the most important criteria.

More positively, I think I'm noticing a bit of a pick up in activity as businesses work out different ways of doing things that allow distancing to be maintained and contact minimised.

rick_chasey

No need to be authoritarian in the UK - every street has its own bloody curtain twitcher ready to snitch on you at a moment's notice.

focuszing723

Looking more positive for Johnson now.

Stevo_666

rick_chasey said:

No need to be authoritarian in the UK - every street has its own bloody curtain twitcher ready to snitch on you at a moment's notice.

Hadn't noticed myself. What have you been snitched on for?

TheBigBean

Stevo_666 said:

Paris has now banned jogging between 10am and 7pm. Not sure what that achieves, apart from forcing people to go out jogging in the morning or the evening rather than spread thought the day - and so more likely to come close to someone.

I get this. On my last venture out on Sunday, joggers were by far the biggest hazard. Walkers, sunbathers, romancers and picnickers were very easily avoided, runners far less so. I saw a significant shouting match between a runner "victim" and a runner about "social distancing". Also, narrow park gates seemed a wholly inappropriate place for the warm down by the heavily breathing.

Undoubtedly this is only a problem in urbanised areas.

nickice

France (and also Italy and Spain) seem to have gone down the authoritarian route. Is it just me, or does Macron fancy himself as some sort of Napoleon figure?

I don't think you find your way to the top of any country without at least part of you wanting to rule the world. Some are just better at dressing it up as being 'for the people'
.

Which is why the political system they work within is so important, but yes he's absolutely relishing being a 'wartime' president as he never ceases to remind us about being at war.

kingstongraham

Stevo_666 said:

Paris has now banned jogging between 10am and 7pm. Not sure what that achieves, apart from forcing people to go out jogging in the morning or the evening rather than spread thought the day - and so more likely to come close to someone.

In my rare forays into the outside world, the speed differential does make it more difficult to maintain a distance between people. If a jogger (or cyclist) is overtaking on a path, and there is someone coming the other way, you aren't all keeping 2 metres. If you're all walking (or all jogging), then you can all keep the distance a lot easier.

Keeping the joggers away during peak strolling time means they are going be running when there's mostly runners around.

Also, all the joggers sound like they are out of breath, so I suspect them all of being spreaders.

nickice

nickice said:

France (and also Italy and Spain) seem to have gone down the authoritarian route. Is it just me, or does Macron fancy himself as some sort of Napoleon figure?

I don't think you find your way to the top of any country without at least part of you wanting to rule the world. Some are just better at dressing it up as being 'for the people'

.

Which is why the political system they work within is so important, but yes he's absolutely relishing being a 'wartime' president as he never ceases to remind us about being at war.

coopster_the_1st

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

No need to be authoritarian in the UK - every street has its own bloody curtain twitcher ready to snitch on you at a moment's notice.

Hadn't noticed myself. What have you been snitched on for?

It's much more likely that he is the one doing the snitching...

TheBigBean

Stevo_666 said:

pblakeney said:

rick_chasey said:

pblakeney said:

tailwindhome said:

https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/status/1247422704808067073?s=19

That’s a handy reference point for lifting restrictions. A success, copy; a failure, don’t.

I think everyone needs to recognise that lifting it without the majority having it or a vaccine the likelihood if having a lockdown lifted without returning to lockdown is low.

I don't think anyone really has a proper exit strategy once they start thinking about the challenges around a second wave.

I think there are behavioural challenges around asking people to return to lockdown after it is lifted too, so it's not as straightforward as people are making out.

My point was that it is nice to have someone else to test drive the return before we try.

It's going to be complex and there may not be a 'first mover' advantage here. Suspect countries will be watching each other on this as well as doing their own research.

Complete aside, but I'm not convinced "first mover" advantage really exists. Consider an ice cream van that arrives in a field of people. Where should the driver park the van to ensure that when the second van arrives the driver has an advantage? This assumes everyone goes to the nearest van.

tailwindhome

Stevo_666 said:

Paris has now banned jogging between 10am and 7pm. Not sure what that achieves, apart from forcing people to go out jogging in the morning or the evening rather than spread thought the day - and so more likely to come close to someone.

Seems sensible to me.
Make leisure/exercise an 'off peak' activity

tailwindhome

Stevo_666 said:

True, but the countries I mentioned do seem to have taken a more dictatorial route compared to others (including the UK) where there is more of an element of trust, self-policing and getting public 'buy-in'.

I'm not convinced the UK messaging has been great in getting 'buy in', partly I suspect due to a British instinct for pushing their luck and seeking out loopholes meaning time is spent clarifying and explaining.


See below
V

coopster_the_1st

TheBigBean said:

Am I allowed to cycle to my office to grab some things? Seems low risk to me.

I don't see a problem here (and it would be a shame to waste the good weather).

The Scottish CMO who obviously knows more about this than us doesn't see a risk in doing this sort of thing.

focuszing723

Seeing today's mortality figures, unfortunately it looks like yesterdays were predictably low.

mrfpb

A bit more maths, trying to remove the "weekend" factor by looking at growth across a whole week.

9 Mar there were 321 identified cases.

09 Mar - 16 Mar cases multiplied by factor of 4.8 to 1543
16 Mar to 23 Mar cases multiplied by factor of 4.3 to 6,650
23 Mar to 30 Mar cases multiplied by factor of 3.3 to 22,141
30 Mar to 06 Apr cases multiplied by factor of 2.3 to 51,608

So the rate of growth has slowed to less than half where it was 3 weeks ago.

The rate for deaths is less clear as there were only 5 on 9 March, which is a very small numberfor statistical puirposes.

16th March there were 55 known deaths

16 Mar to 23 Mar deaths multiplied by factor of 6.1 to 335
23 Mar to 30 Mar deaths multiplied by factor of 4.2 to 1,408
30 Mar to 06 Apr deaths multiplied by factor of 3.8 to 5,373

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

No need to be authoritarian in the UK - every street has its own bloody curtain twitcher ready to snitch on you at a moment's notice.

Hadn't noticed myself.

Lucky you.

Stevo_666

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

True, but the countries I mentioned do seem to have taken a more dictatorial route compared to others (including the UK) where there is more of an element of trust, self-policing and getting public 'buy-in'.

I'm not convinced the UK messaging has been great in getting 'buy in', partly I suspect due to a British instinct for pushing their luck and seeking out loopholes meaning time is spent clarifying and explaining.


See below
V

So you'd prefer it if we had a French/Spanish/Italian style lock down?

Stevo_666

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

No need to be authoritarian in the UK - every street has its own bloody curtain twitcher ready to snitch on you at a moment's notice.

Hadn't noticed myself.

Lucky you.

So what have you been snitched on for?

tailwindhome

Stevo_666 said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

True, but the countries I mentioned do seem to have taken a more dictatorial route compared to others (including the UK) where there is more of an element of trust, self-policing and getting public 'buy-in'.

I'm not convinced the UK messaging has been great in getting 'buy in', partly I suspect due to a British instinct for pushing their luck and seeking out loopholes meaning time is spent clarifying and explaining.


See below
V

So you'd prefer it if we had a French/Spanish/Italian style lock down?

I'd prefer it if the government messaging had been clearer throughout and there were fewer dickheads.

I hope a stronger lockdown won't be necessary, but that curve needs to flatten soon to avoid it.

mrfpb

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

True, but the countries I mentioned do seem to have taken a more dictatorial route compared to others (including the UK) where there is more of an element of trust, self-policing and getting public 'buy-in'.

I'm not convinced the UK messaging has been great in getting 'buy in', partly I suspect due to a British instinct for pushing their luck and seeking out loopholes meaning time is spent clarifying and explaining.


See below
V

So you'd prefer it if we had a French/Spanish/Italian style lock down?

I'd prefer it if the government messaging had been clearer throughout and there were fewer dickheads.

I hope a stronger lockdown won't be necessary, but that curve needs to flatten soon to avoid it.

I'm pretty sure the government advice and policy takes into account the "dickhead factor" - some of the UCL assumptions included up to 50% of the population ignoring at least some of the advice.

Stevo_666

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

True, but the countries I mentioned do seem to have taken a more dictatorial route compared to others (including the UK) where there is more of an element of trust, self-policing and getting public 'buy-in'.

I'm not convinced the UK messaging has been great in getting 'buy in', partly I suspect due to a British instinct for pushing their luck and seeking out loopholes meaning time is spent clarifying and explaining.


See below
V

So you'd prefer it if we had a French/Spanish/Italian style lock down?

I'd prefer it if the government messaging had been clearer throughout and there were fewer dickheads.

I hope a stronger lockdown won't be necessary, but that curve needs to flatten soon to avoid it.

Every country has people like that. Why else would countries like France keep having to adjust the rules as mentioned above?

mrfpb

So the chain of command goes Boris-> Raab->Sunak.

Gove must be feeling unloved right now.

tailwindhome

mrfpb said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

True, but the countries I mentioned do seem to have taken a more dictatorial route compared to others (including the UK) where there is more of an element of trust, self-policing and getting public 'buy-in'.

I'm not convinced the UK messaging has been great in getting 'buy in', partly I suspect due to a British instinct for pushing their luck and seeking out loopholes meaning time is spent clarifying and explaining.


See below
V

So you'd prefer it if we had a French/Spanish/Italian style lock down?

I'd prefer it if the government messaging had been clearer throughout and there were fewer dickheads.

I hope a stronger lockdown won't be necessary, but that curve needs to flatten soon to avoid it.

I'm pretty sure the government advice and policy takes into account the "dickhead factor" - some of the UCL assumptions included up to 50% of the population ignoring at least some of the advice.

Building the 'dickhead factor' into the model doesn't reduce the deaths it just makes the forecast more accurate.

focuszing723

Where I live people have been very respectful of the guidelines. I think that's a fair point about factoring in people who aren't responsible.

rjsterry

Stevo_666 said:

rjsterry said:

Stevo_666 said:

rick_chasey said:

No need to be authoritarian in the UK - every street has its own bloody curtain twitcher ready to snitch on you at a moment's notice.

Hadn't noticed myself.

Lucky you.

So what have you been snitched on for?

Not me personally, but I see a lot of it through work. Some people are desperate to get their neighbours in trouble.

kingstongraham

Even based on yesterday's "low" starting point, the doubling time is 4.7 days with today's large sounding daily number. It definitely feels like it's started slowing.

rick_chasey

kingstongraham said:

Even based on yesterday's "low" starting point, the doubling time is 4.7 days with today's large sounding daily number. It definitely feels like it's started slowing.

You would hope so given we've all been staying at home (in theory anyway) for the past two weeks.

nickice

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

Paris has now banned jogging between 10am and 7pm. Not sure what that achieves, apart from forcing people to go out jogging in the morning or the evening rather than spread thought the day - and so more likely to come close to someone.

Seems sensible to me.
Make leisure/exercise an 'off peak' activity

Another pointless measure, in my opinion. Especially as most people working from home would be going out largely outwith these hours. And why only jogging? Measure like these won't keep the public onside. They'd be better off concentrating police resources in areas like Seine-Saint-Denis where respect for the lockdown is getting worse and worse.

Stevo_666

tailwindhome said:

mrfpb said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

tailwindhome said:

Stevo_666 said:

True, but the countries I mentioned do seem to have taken a more dictatorial route compared to others (including the UK) where there is more of an element of trust, self-policing and getting public 'buy-in'.

I'm not convinced the UK messaging has been great in getting 'buy in', partly I suspect due to a British instinct for pushing their luck and seeking out loopholes meaning time is spent clarifying and explaining.


See below
V

So you'd prefer it if we had a French/Spanish/Italian style lock down?

I'd prefer it if the government messaging had been clearer throughout and there were fewer dickheads.

I hope a stronger lockdown won't be necessary, but that curve needs to flatten soon to avoid it.

I'm pretty sure the government advice and policy takes into account the "dickhead factor" - some of the UCL assumptions included up to 50% of the population ignoring at least some of the advice.

Building the 'dickhead factor' into the model doesn't reduce the deaths it just makes the forecast more accurate.

The dickhead factor probably increases infections. Could that partly explain why we have less than some other countries?

Longshot

rick_chasey said:

kingstongraham said:

Even based on yesterday's "low" starting point, the doubling time is 4.7 days with today's large sounding daily number. It definitely feels like it's started slowing.

You would hope so given we've all been staying at home (in theory anyway) for the past two weeks.

This/next week is critical in terms of the spread. We should have a much clearer idea of what is happening in a matter of days.