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  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    (since you won't read it, OECD saying all countries need to forget austerity in order avoid a popular backlash/populist politics - fiscal policy should do the stabilisation work not monetary policy and governments should ditch fixed targets on debt).
    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    rick_chasey said:

    (since you won't read it, OECD saying all countries need to forget austerity in order avoid a popular backlash/populist politics - fiscal policy should do the stabilisation work not monetary policy and governments should ditch fixed targets on debt).

    Do they say what you do if interest rates start rising again or do you just buy more of your own debt?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    They say as long as you maintain trust in the institutions it’s not a problem as it won’t get to that.

    They also are the risk of getting the recovery wrong is much higher a risk.
    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    rick_chasey said:

    They say as long as you maintain trust in the institutions it’s not a problem as it won’t get to that.

    They also are the risk of getting the recovery wrong is much higher a risk.

    So keep praying the MMT does not get ill and somebody points out the enperoro has no clothes.

    I won’t argue that it could be very successful for a limited number of years but I see an inevitable end point.

    A few months ago your key economic indicator was that debt should be growing slower than the economy. Ignoring why you ditched it, when do you think that will next be achieved in the UK?
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 25,852
    edited January 2021
    Oops!
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    They say as long as you maintain trust in the institutions it’s not a problem as it won’t get to that.

    They also are the risk of getting the recovery wrong is much higher a risk.

    So keep praying the MMT does not get ill and somebody points out the enperoro has no clothes.

    I won’t argue that it could be very successful for a limited number of years but I see an inevitable end point.

    A few months ago your key economic indicator was that debt should be growing slower than the economy. Ignoring why you ditched it, when do you think that will next be achieved in the UK?
    Depends on how well they manage the recovery ;)
    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    They say as long as you maintain trust in the institutions it’s not a problem as it won’t get to that.

    They also are the risk of getting the recovery wrong is much higher a risk.

    So keep praying the MMT does not get ill and somebody points out the enperoro has no clothes.

    I won’t argue that it could be very successful for a limited number of years but I see an inevitable end point.

    A few months ago your key economic indicator was that debt should be growing slower than the economy. Ignoring why you ditched it, when do you think that will next be achieved in the UK?
    Depends on how well they manage the recovery ;)
    So let’s assume good growth is 3% when do you think the deficit will be below that? Pre 2030

    And when do you think we will top £3trn
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    Who knows.

    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    rick_chasey said:

    Who knows.

    And when interest rates soar and the cost of debt servicing goes through what do you reckon they will claim is their new measurement of fiscal discipline?
    Balance the books over the lifetime of a Parliament?
    Balance the books over the economic cycle?
    Either of the above but don’t count borrowing for investment?
    Or back to debt growing slower than GDP?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    edited January 2021
    When when when if if if.

    Look if they don’t sort the recovery there are much bigger problems afoot.

    How do you propose they get out of the recession, first?

    It’s all moot when it’s in free fall.

    This isn’t the ‘80s when you have rates sky high so a lot of room for manoeuvre on the monetary side.

    Fiscal policy has to do the heavy lifting.

    Rates aren’t that likely to rise and if they are it’ll likely be because of high inflation, in which case it’s again less of a problem.


    I feel like you can’t see the gigantic problem in front of you because you’re too busy looking for something in the future which may not even happen.
    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    rick_chasey said:

    When when when if if if.

    Look if they don’t sort the recovery there are much bigger problems afoot.

    How do you propose they get out of the recession, first?

    It’s all moot when it’s in free fall.

    This isn’t the ‘80s when you have rates sky high so a lot of room for manoeuvre on the monetary side.

    Fiscal policy has to do the heavy lifting.

    Rates aren’t that likely to rise and if they are it’ll likely be because of high inflation, in which case it’s again less of a problem.


    I feel like you can’t see the gigantic problem in front of you because you’re too busy looking for something in the future which may not even happen.

    I think the economic scarring from Covid will be minor compared to Brexit.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    I hope last night’s actions sharpen the mind somewhat in relation to the political fallout of austerity.
    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    rick_chasey said:

    I hope last night’s actions sharpen the mind somewhat in relation to the political fallout of austerity.

    what happened last night?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I hope last night’s actions sharpen the mind somewhat in relation to the political fallout of austerity.

    what happened last night?
    Stuff in the states.

    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I hope last night’s actions sharpen the mind somewhat in relation to the political fallout of austerity.

    what happened last night?
    Stuff in the states.

    I can not even see a tenuous link to austerity.

    Anyway true austerity will be a 25% cut in all pensions, benefits and public sector wages that will be forced upon us when your house of cards comes crashing down
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I hope last night’s actions sharpen the mind somewhat in relation to the political fallout of austerity.

    what happened last night?
    Stuff in the states.

    I can not even see a tenuous link to austerity.

    Anyway true austerity will be a 25% cut in all pensions, benefits and public sector wages that will be forced upon us when your house of cards comes crashing down
    So I think there is a material risk of continued austerity fuelling extremist, undemocratic political feeling and making it a mainstream position to take.

    At that point you can forget all reasonable governance and worrying about the deficit is the least of your problems.
    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I hope last night’s actions sharpen the mind somewhat in relation to the political fallout of austerity.

    what happened last night?
    Stuff in the states.

    I can not even see a tenuous link to austerity.

    Anyway true austerity will be a 25% cut in all pensions, benefits and public sector wages that will be forced upon us when your house of cards comes crashing down
    So I think there is a material risk of continued austerity fuelling extremist, undemocratic political feeling and making it a mainstream position to take.

    At that point you can forget all reasonable governance and worrying about the deficit is the least of your problems.
    you worry too much

    we will bumble along with short term politicians piling up debt with the usual malcontents moaning from the fringes until the day of reckoning when external forces make us live within our means. The usual suspects will dust off their banners and sing songs in Trafalgar Square before going back to their local pub in their provincial market towns to rail against the man
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I hope last night’s actions sharpen the mind somewhat in relation to the political fallout of austerity.

    what happened last night?
    Stuff in the states.

    I can not even see a tenuous link to austerity.

    Anyway true austerity will be a 25% cut in all pensions, benefits and public sector wages that will be forced upon us when your house of cards comes crashing down
    So I think there is a material risk of continued austerity fuelling extremist, undemocratic political feeling and making it a mainstream position to take.

    At that point you can forget all reasonable governance and worrying about the deficit is the least of your problems.
    you worry too much

    we will bumble along with short term politicians piling up debt with the usual malcontents moaning from the fringes until the day of reckoning when external forces make us live within our means. The usual suspects will dust off their banners and sing songs in Trafalgar Square before going back to their local pub in their provincial market towns to rail against the man
    British exceptionalism has gone to your head.
    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I hope last night’s actions sharpen the mind somewhat in relation to the political fallout of austerity.

    what happened last night?
    Stuff in the states.

    I can not even see a tenuous link to austerity.

    Anyway true austerity will be a 25% cut in all pensions, benefits and public sector wages that will be forced upon us when your house of cards comes crashing down
    So I think there is a material risk of continued austerity fuelling extremist, undemocratic political feeling and making it a mainstream position to take.

    At that point you can forget all reasonable governance and worrying about the deficit is the least of your problems.
    you worry too much

    we will bumble along with short term politicians piling up debt with the usual malcontents moaning from the fringes until the day of reckoning when external forces make us live within our means. The usual suspects will dust off their banners and sing songs in Trafalgar Square before going back to their local pub in their provincial market towns to rail against the man
    British exceptionalism has gone to your head.
    you need to study British history, we do not do insurrection, we look for a toff to doff our cap to and if that does not work some of us go on a march and chant a few pithy lines.

    Imagine if Nissan closed it's Sunderland plant tonight, do you think the mackems would rise up and man the burning barricades in violent protest against the ruling classes or do you think they would go down 'Spoons and moan about southern bankers?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I hope last night’s actions sharpen the mind somewhat in relation to the political fallout of austerity.

    what happened last night?
    Stuff in the states.

    I can not even see a tenuous link to austerity.

    Anyway true austerity will be a 25% cut in all pensions, benefits and public sector wages that will be forced upon us when your house of cards comes crashing down
    So I think there is a material risk of continued austerity fuelling extremist, undemocratic political feeling and making it a mainstream position to take.

    At that point you can forget all reasonable governance and worrying about the deficit is the least of your problems.
    you worry too much

    we will bumble along with short term politicians piling up debt with the usual malcontents moaning from the fringes until the day of reckoning when external forces make us live within our means. The usual suspects will dust off their banners and sing songs in Trafalgar Square before going back to their local pub in their provincial market towns to rail against the man
    British exceptionalism has gone to your head.
    you need to study British history, we do not do insurrection, we look for a toff to doff our cap to and if that does not work some of us go on a march and chant a few pithy lines.

    Imagine if Nissan closed it's Sunderland plant tonight, do you think the mackems would rise up and man the burning barricades in violent protest against the ruling classes or do you think they would go down 'Spoons and moan about southern bankers?
    There you are with the exceptionalism again.
    _
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,683
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I hope last night’s actions sharpen the mind somewhat in relation to the political fallout of austerity.

    what happened last night?
    Stuff in the states.

    I can not even see a tenuous link to austerity.

    Anyway true austerity will be a 25% cut in all pensions, benefits and public sector wages that will be forced upon us when your house of cards comes crashing down
    So I think there is a material risk of continued austerity fuelling extremist, undemocratic political feeling and making it a mainstream position to take.

    At that point you can forget all reasonable governance and worrying about the deficit is the least of your problems.
    you worry too much

    we will bumble along with short term politicians piling up debt with the usual malcontents moaning from the fringes until the day of reckoning when external forces make us live within our means. The usual suspects will dust off their banners and sing songs in Trafalgar Square before going back to their local pub in their provincial market towns to rail against the man
    British exceptionalism has gone to your head.
    you need to study British history, we do not do insurrection, we look for a toff to doff our cap to and if that does not work some of us go on a march and chant a few pithy lines.

    Imagine if Nissan closed it's Sunderland plant tonight, do you think the mackems would rise up and man the burning barricades in violent protest against the ruling classes or do you think they would go down 'Spoons and moan about southern bankers?
    Whenever we attempt a rebellion it seems to rain and everyone goes home.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    FWIW, what's the cut off for your remark SC? Does Cromwell not count?
    _
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 26,309
    Have we forgotten the 2011 riots?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    Or Johnson illegally suspending parliament to meet his own ends.

    The list goes on.

    It only stays unlikely if enough people are vigilant against it - I don't think that is the case in the UK currently.
    _
  • elbowloh
    elbowloh Posts: 7,078
    edited January 2021
    Pross said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I hope last night’s actions sharpen the mind somewhat in relation to the political fallout of austerity.

    what happened last night?
    Stuff in the states.

    I can not even see a tenuous link to austerity.

    Anyway true austerity will be a 25% cut in all pensions, benefits and public sector wages that will be forced upon us when your house of cards comes crashing down
    So I think there is a material risk of continued austerity fuelling extremist, undemocratic political feeling and making it a mainstream position to take.

    At that point you can forget all reasonable governance and worrying about the deficit is the least of your problems.
    you worry too much

    we will bumble along with short term politicians piling up debt with the usual malcontents moaning from the fringes until the day of reckoning when external forces make us live within our means. The usual suspects will dust off their banners and sing songs in Trafalgar Square before going back to their local pub in their provincial market towns to rail against the man
    British exceptionalism has gone to your head.
    you need to study British history, we do not do insurrection, we look for a toff to doff our cap to and if that does not work some of us go on a march and chant a few pithy lines.

    Imagine if Nissan closed it's Sunderland plant tonight, do you think the mackems would rise up and man the burning barricades in violent protest against the ruling classes or do you think they would go down 'Spoons and moan about southern bankers?
    Whenever we attempt a rebellion it seems to rain and everyone goes home.
    What about the luddites?

    Also, the peeps at Peterloo didn't go home due to rain.
    Felt F1 2014
    Felt Z6 2012
    Red Arthur Caygill steel frame
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  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 40,683
    kingstongraham said:

    Have we forgotten the 2011 riots?

    They weren't really politically motivated (for want of a better word), the original rioting stemmed from allegations of police brutallity and then it became an excuse for general lawlessness (a chance to loot a trainer shop or electrical store then set fire to stuff). The closest I can recall us coming to political insurrection in mainland UK is probably the Poll Tax riots or miners strike.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    Pross said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Have we forgotten the 2011 riots?

    They weren't really politically motivated (for want of a better word), the original rioting stemmed from allegations of police brutallity and then it became an excuse for general lawlessness (a chance to loot a trainer shop or electrical store then set fire to stuff). The closest I can recall us coming to political insurrection in mainland UK is probably the Poll Tax riots or miners strike.
    I am pretty sure the 2011 riots ended because it rained.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,866
    apart from Cromwell these instances were about a single issue rather than an attempt to overthrow a system of government.

    If Diana's brother had marched on Buckingham Palace it could have been interesting
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 72,799
    surrey_commuter said:

    apart from Cromwell these instances were about a single issue rather than an attempt to overthrow a system of government.

    If Diana's brother had marched on Buckingham Palace it could have been interesting

    I am disappointed British exceptionalism has got you, SC.
    _
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 27,749
    edited January 2021
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I hope last night’s actions sharpen the mind somewhat in relation to the political fallout of austerity.

    what happened last night?
    Stuff in the states.

    I can not even see a tenuous link to austerity.

    Anyway true austerity will be a 25% cut in all pensions, benefits and public sector wages that will be forced upon us when your house of cards comes crashing down
    So I think there is a material risk of continued austerity fuelling extremist, undemocratic political feeling and making it a mainstream position to take.

    At that point you can forget all reasonable governance and worrying about the deficit is the least of your problems.
    you worry too much

    we will bumble along with short term politicians piling up debt with the usual malcontents moaning from the fringes until the day of reckoning when external forces make us live within our means. The usual suspects will dust off their banners and sing songs in Trafalgar Square before going back to their local pub in their provincial market towns to rail against the man
    British exceptionalism has gone to your head.
    you need to study British history, we do not do insurrection, we look for a toff to doff our cap to and if that does not work some of us go on a march and chant a few pithy lines.

    Imagine if Nissan closed it's Sunderland plant tonight, do you think the mackems would rise up and man the burning barricades in violent protest against the ruling classes or do you think they would go down 'Spoons and moan about southern bankers?
    Err, what? We literally executed the King.
    Watt Tyler; the Chartists; the Suffragettes.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
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    Part of the anti-growth coalition

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