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Comments
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Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!2
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Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.0 -
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.0 -
Our hammer is working! Lets hit harder!- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
Only a 0.15% increase in inflation in June (1.84% annualised). Although historically June is never particularly big - the two years being the exception.0
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The ONS commentary highlights that leading indicators of CPI (e.g. factory prices) are already showing much reduced inflation.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.0 -
Odd choice for the London mayoral candidate.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?0 -
Assume you are being sarcastic?wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
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The bit about Rishi was a bit tongue in cheek!First.Aspect said:
Assume you are being sarcastic?wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
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Webinar this morning suggested that we have only seen 40% of the effect of the interest rate rises so far.
US unlikely to make any changes (up or down) to rates for a while.0 -
That's the story in the macro updates we get. The BoE is definitely running the risk of over-reacting having been late spotting the problem.Dorset_Boy said:Webinar this morning suggested that we have only seen 40% of the effect of the interest rate rises so far.
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Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.0 -
It's hard to see the London mayor being anything other than the Labour candidate for a long time. Khan is very unimpressive as mayor, but will win with ease.rjsterry said:Odd choice for the London mayoral candidate.
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Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.0 -
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.0 -
Apoliticalrick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.0 -
It's as apolitical as the programmer makes it. These things are still devised by humans and have human prejudices as a result.shirley_basso said:
Apoliticalrick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.0 -
Agreed. Conservatives seem to have more or less given up beyond whinging about their ULEZ.TheBigBean said:
It's hard to see the London mayor being anything other than the Labour candidate for a long time. Khan is very unimpressive as mayor, but will win with ease.rjsterry said:Odd choice for the London mayoral candidate.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
I think RC has a point in that AI chatbots and image generators have already been shown to have exactly the same prejudices as the data on which they are trained.First.Aspect said:
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Economists don't tend to have twitter and other social media as a source of data, but arguably they should as it would provide real time feedback on the current economic situation. That's the sort of thing AI or plain old algorithms can be good at.rjsterry said:
I think RC has a point in that AI chatbots and image generators have already been shown to have exactly the same prejudices as the data on which they are trained.First.Aspect said:
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.0 -
It's like the automatic soap dispenser machine that was racist.First.Aspect said:
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJjv_OeiHmo
Designers only used white hands to test it.
Same with all programming; all the assumptions that go into deciding how the programme makes decisions, what data it used etc etc. That's all a decision made by a human, and so is prone to the usual human mistakes/biases/prejudices etc.
What macro-economic assumptions are you going to make?
I mean, for this round of inflation, we already have a discussion about whether rate rises actually even help combat inflation!!
So how are you going to programme something that comes up with a decision if you can't even agree on the basics of the effect of certain policy decisions on the economy?0 -
Dunno. I'm not a programmer.rick_chasey said:
It's like the automatic soap dispenser machine that was racist.First.Aspect said:
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJjv_OeiHmo
Designers only used white hands to test it.
Same with all programming; all the assumptions that go into deciding how the programme makes decisions, what data it used etc etc. That's all a decision made by a human, and so is prone to the usual human mistakes/biases/prejudices etc.
What macro-economic assumptions are you going to make?
I mean, for this round of inflation, we already have a discussion about whether rate rises actually even help combat inflation!!
So how are you going to programme something that comes up with a decision if you can't even agree on the basics of the effect of certain policy decisions on the economy?
From a volume of information perspective AI would seem to have some advantages, and I'm not suggesting using the general Internet as source data. More I was thinking that setting the rates is a case of correlating rate and inflation, whilst taking a myriad other factors into account.
Your comment on bias is correct, but younhave that right now anyway because people are deciding.
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Right. I think we're agreeing here. Using AI to scrape a tonne more data and on specific instruction (knowing the assumptions, and limitations) can help with decision making, but let's not pretend that it can supplant human decision making for these kinds of things, or that it is somehow better because a person is somehow not involved.First.Aspect said:
Dunno. I'm not a programmer.rick_chasey said:
It's like the automatic soap dispenser machine that was racist.First.Aspect said:
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJjv_OeiHmo
Designers only used white hands to test it.
Same with all programming; all the assumptions that go into deciding how the programme makes decisions, what data it used etc etc. That's all a decision made by a human, and so is prone to the usual human mistakes/biases/prejudices etc.
What macro-economic assumptions are you going to make?
I mean, for this round of inflation, we already have a discussion about whether rate rises actually even help combat inflation!!
So how are you going to programme something that comes up with a decision if you can't even agree on the basics of the effect of certain policy decisions on the economy?
From a volume of information perspective AI would seem to have some advantages, and I'm not suggesting using the general Internet as source data. More I was thinking that setting the rates is a case of correlating rate and inflation, whilst taking a myriad other factors into account.
Your comment on bias is correct, but younhave that right now anyway because people are deciding.
They are involved, it's just somewhere else in the decision making process.
Plus, we need to realise economics is basically about mass or aggregate decision making, and it is as much about human collective psychology as it is anything to do with science, and I think we are so conditions to the macroeconomic orthdox system view that this lever does this and that lever does that, that we forget that.
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You need to read the Foundation Trilogy - you'd find the premise quite interesting.rick_chasey said:
Right. I think we're agreeing here. Using AI to scrape a tonne more data and on specific instruction (knowing the assumptions, and limitations) can help with decision making, but let's not pretend that it can supplant human decision making for these kinds of things, or that it is somehow better because a person is somehow not involved.First.Aspect said:
Dunno. I'm not a programmer.rick_chasey said:
It's like the automatic soap dispenser machine that was racist.First.Aspect said:
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YJjv_OeiHmo
Designers only used white hands to test it.
Same with all programming; all the assumptions that go into deciding how the programme makes decisions, what data it used etc etc. That's all a decision made by a human, and so is prone to the usual human mistakes/biases/prejudices etc.
What macro-economic assumptions are you going to make?
I mean, for this round of inflation, we already have a discussion about whether rate rises actually even help combat inflation!!
So how are you going to programme something that comes up with a decision if you can't even agree on the basics of the effect of certain policy decisions on the economy?
From a volume of information perspective AI would seem to have some advantages, and I'm not suggesting using the general Internet as source data. More I was thinking that setting the rates is a case of correlating rate and inflation, whilst taking a myriad other factors into account.
Your comment on bias is correct, but younhave that right now anyway because people are deciding.
They are involved, it's just somewhere else in the decision making process.
Plus, we need to realise economics is basically about mass or aggregate decision making, and it is as much about human collective psychology as it is anything to do with science, and I think we are so conditions to the macroeconomic orthdox system view that this lever does this and that lever does that, that we forget that.
Yes, it is a tool, not a replacement at the moment.0 -
Ai / an algorithm will process more data, more consistently and will return more consistently successful outcomes than humans.
It can respond to more subtle trends and patterns than any human can.
IF it’s well written. Will it be perfect, no. Will it be better than humans, yes. Assuming it’s not done on the cheap.0 -
I would be shocked if at least some of the tech commonly referred to as AI isn't already involved in the decision making.0
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Would you not see twitter users as a skewed sample?TheBigBean said:
Economists don't tend to have twitter and other social media as a source of data, but arguably they should as it would provide real time feedback on the current economic situation. That's the sort of thing AI or plain old algorithms can be good at.rjsterry said:
I think RC has a point in that AI chatbots and image generators have already been shown to have exactly the same prejudices as the data on which they are trained.First.Aspect said:
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.0 -
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Absolutely, but it is another data point that can used alongside other skewed ones such as PMIs and the like.surrey_commuter said:
Would you not see twitter users as a skewed sample?TheBigBean said:
Economists don't tend to have twitter and other social media as a source of data, but arguably they should as it would provide real time feedback on the current economic situation. That's the sort of thing AI or plain old algorithms can be good at.rjsterry said:
I think RC has a point in that AI chatbots and image generators have already been shown to have exactly the same prejudices as the data on which they are trained.First.Aspect said:
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.0
