LEAVE the Conservative Party and save your country!
Comments
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Some people, and the Express in particular, clearly do not have an understanding of how inflation works.rick_chasey said:One for you, SC:
...The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Obviously skewed, but the Twitterati will raise points that learned committees won't consider, as the Twitterati represents a broader cross-section of society than will ever be represented on such committees. Much of what comes up on Twitter is utter nonsense, but there a frequently points raised that make one at least think differently about a subject.surrey_commuter said:
Would you not see twitter users as a skewed sample?TheBigBean said:
Economists don't tend to have twitter and other social media as a source of data, but arguably they should as it would provide real time feedback on the current economic situation. That's the sort of thing AI or plain old algorithms can be good at.rjsterry said:
I think RC has a point in that AI chatbots and image generators have already been shown to have exactly the same prejudices as the data on which they are trained.First.Aspect said:
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.1 -
AI sifting twitter to change interest rates would really up the stakes in the bots game. It's one thing using them to turn people gradually more politically extreme, but if they had the opportunity to help set interest rates...wallace_and_gromit said:
Obviously skewed, but the Twitterati will raise points that learned committees won't consider, as the Twitterati represents a broader cross-section of society than will ever be represented on such committees. Much of what comes up on Twitter is utter nonsense, but there a frequently points raised that make one at least think differently about a subject.surrey_commuter said:
Would you not see twitter users as a skewed sample?TheBigBean said:
Economists don't tend to have twitter and other social media as a source of data, but arguably they should as it would provide real time feedback on the current economic situation. That's the sort of thing AI or plain old algorithms can be good at.rjsterry said:
I think RC has a point in that AI chatbots and image generators have already been shown to have exactly the same prejudices as the data on which they are trained.First.Aspect said:
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.0 -
I was thinking more "old school" tbh. e.g. the MPC getting a broader range of anecdotal evidence as to how inflation / interest rates etc. are affecting people. Averages are all well and good, but they disguise the severity of downsides.Jezyboy said:
AI sifting twitter to change interest rates would really up the stakes in the bots game. It's one thing using them to turn people gradually more politically extreme, but if they had the opportunity to help set interest rates...wallace_and_gromit said:
Obviously skewed, but the Twitterati will raise points that learned committees won't consider, as the Twitterati represents a broader cross-section of society than will ever be represented on such committees. Much of what comes up on Twitter is utter nonsense, but there a frequently points raised that make one at least think differently about a subject.surrey_commuter said:
Would you not see twitter users as a skewed sample?TheBigBean said:
Economists don't tend to have twitter and other social media as a source of data, but arguably they should as it would provide real time feedback on the current economic situation. That's the sort of thing AI or plain old algorithms can be good at.rjsterry said:
I think RC has a point in that AI chatbots and image generators have already been shown to have exactly the same prejudices as the data on which they are trained.First.Aspect said:
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.
I wasn't suggesting that "Skynet" sets interest rates.
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To counter your argument I would say that the "Twitterati" are the equivalent of the pub bore or gobby mum at the school gate who loves the sound of her own voice, they just have a bigger audience. "Normal" people do not go down the pub, school, Twitter to overshare details about their financial woes.wallace_and_gromit said:
Obviously skewed, but the Twitterati will raise points that learned committees won't consider, as the Twitterati represents a broader cross-section of society than will ever be represented on such committees. Much of what comes up on Twitter is utter nonsense, but there a frequently points raised that make one at least think differently about a subject.surrey_commuter said:
Would you not see twitter users as a skewed sample?TheBigBean said:
Economists don't tend to have twitter and other social media as a source of data, but arguably they should as it would provide real time feedback on the current economic situation. That's the sort of thing AI or plain old algorithms can be good at.rjsterry said:
I think RC has a point in that AI chatbots and image generators have already been shown to have exactly the same prejudices as the data on which they are trained.First.Aspect said:
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.
I would agree that interest rate setters (politicians and civil servants) would benefit from greater exposure to the real world but that is not to be found on Twitter.
I also think you would be surprised at how many data points they study as what they need are leading indicators.0 -
Whilst the last 7 years has been an eye opener about how little is understood about economics, I am going to credit TBB with pointing out people's non understanding of the rate of inflation.rick_chasey said:
Surely somebody with half a brain and two minutes to ponder would instinctively know that story is utter nonsense which would suggest that it is published to make their readers even more livid.
or the journalist, sub-editor and editor do not have two cells to rub together
or economics is not common sense and I am an undiscovered genius0 -
Definitely the latter0
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I think we're conflating a lot of different things. Yes, Twitter as a source of economic data is indirect at best. Chatbots are not a sensible model for a hypothetical MPC replacement algorithm. Something like the use of algorithms to more accurately analyse mammograms would be a better place to start. And like that use of AI it would need testing against human decision making to confirm that it was actually making more accurate diagnoses. An immediate problem I can see is that quarterly rate decisions by a single committee do not make for a big data set.surrey_commuter said:
Would you not see twitter users as a skewed sample?TheBigBean said:
Economists don't tend to have twitter and other social media as a source of data, but arguably they should as it would provide real time feedback on the current economic situation. That's the sort of thing AI or plain old algorithms can be good at.rjsterry said:
I think RC has a point in that AI chatbots and image generators have already been shown to have exactly the same prejudices as the data on which they are trained.First.Aspect said:
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Re 1, fair point to an extent, but there are some interesting themes on Twitter if one is prepared to keep an open mind.surrey_commuter said:1. I would agree that interest rate setters (politicians and civil servants) would benefit from greater exposure to the real world but that is not to be found on Twitter.
2. I also think you would be surprised at how many data points they study as what they need are leading indicators.
RE 2, maybe, but the organisations like the BoE and obviously politicians (who one assumes have access to the best information that the "organs of the state" can gather) seem hopelessly out of touch a lot of the time, so one wonders how much "out of the box" thinking the BoE etc. actually do undertake.
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If you want to do data analysis, someone else's data analysis is not a good starting point, particularly if it's unfiltered opinion rather than analysis.TheBigBean said:
Absolutely, but it is another data point that can used alongside other skewed ones such as PMIs and the like.surrey_commuter said:
Would you not see twitter users as a skewed sample?TheBigBean said:
Economists don't tend to have twitter and other social media as a source of data, but arguably they should as it would provide real time feedback on the current economic situation. That's the sort of thing AI or plain old algorithms can be good at.rjsterry said:
I think RC has a point in that AI chatbots and image generators have already been shown to have exactly the same prejudices as the data on which they are trained.First.Aspect said:
Programmer isn't looking at the data being used, they are providing the framework for interpreting it.rick_chasey said:
Eh? It's only as good as the programmer. What makes you think a programmer would be better at looking at this than a committee of experienced economists and bankers?morstar said:
Yes.First.Aspect said:
As I understand it, they did too much QE for too long, leaving the country with too much short term and inflation linked debt, which blunts the effect of rate rises. They then took too long amd moved too slowly to increase rates. Both of these meaning that they now need to move faster and go higher than should be necessary.Dorset_Boy said:
Remember which moron is head of the Bank of England.....rick_chasey said:
Thank f*ck for that. It's been a while since UK performance has beaten expectation.wallace_and_gromit said:Inflation down by more than expected to 7.9%. Core inflation down too, against expectation. Rishi is the man!
Long way to go but hopefully the rates as they are, are actually working and they won't need to hike too much more.
Sense says it's time to pause interest rate rises, but Bailey is a f'wit.
Direction of travel seems to be that they will over shoot, induce a technical recession and then panic and go the other way, probably over shooting again.
So here is food for thought - could AI do a better job?
Because it would predict patterns rather than just react.
It would also not wait until a potential pattern fully establishes itself as a definite pattern.
Ergo, sometimes, you’d see the wrong action taken but only to a mild degree. Whereas we currently see whiplash as patterns are entrenched before responding. Thus prompting bigger corrections.
The issue here seems to be recognising the signs early.
I bet if you have this problem to one of the tech giants, together with historical records of rates, inflation and the contemporaneous economic data, they'd provide a fairly good model in a few months.
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I am not sure you want or need "out of the box thinking" when setting base rate. My suggestion would be to collect the data in a manner that reflects we are in the 21st century. Think of the data that the likes of Tesco hold on what the "average" basket of goods should look like and how in real time they know what the rate of inflation is on that basket.wallace_and_gromit said:
Re 1, fair point to an extent, but there are some interesting themes on Twitter if one is prepared to keep an open mind.surrey_commuter said:1. I would agree that interest rate setters (politicians and civil servants) would benefit from greater exposure to the real world but that is not to be found on Twitter.
2. I also think you would be surprised at how many data points they study as what they need are leading indicators.
RE 2, maybe, but the organisations like the BoE and obviously politicians (who one assumes have access to the best information that the "organs of the state" can gather) seem hopelessly out of touch a lot of the time, so one wonders how much "out of the box" thinking the BoE etc. actually do undertake.
FWIW I think the problem is not a lack of data or a living in a bubble, I think the rapid increases are a result of the desparate measures to keep the economy afloat post Brexit and then in Covid. I think without those external shocks the BofE could/should have stopped QE sooner and then they could have started inching up base rate a lot sooner. This would have taken money out of people's pockets in incremental steps.
Currently any candidate to be the Guv'nor has to support Brexit which limits the field to a small number of individual prone to flawed thinking.0 -
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Well he'd have told the country what to expect, at least. It removes the appearance of the BoE being a headless chicken.rick_chasey said:You think Carney would have done the job differently?
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Actually you do. You should never make any key decision without having considered the seemingly "daft" questions. Without considering them you cannot have any confidence that the question concerned does not raise a serious issue. By only thinking within the box, you are automatically constraining your answer to a limited number of acceptable outcomes.surrey_commuter said:
I am not sure you want or need "out of the box thinking" when setting base rate.wallace_and_gromit said:
Re 1, fair point to an extent, but there are some interesting themes on Twitter if one is prepared to keep an open mind.surrey_commuter said:1. I would agree that interest rate setters (politicians and civil servants) would benefit from greater exposure to the real world but that is not to be found on Twitter.
2. I also think you would be surprised at how many data points they study as what they need are leading indicators.
RE 2, maybe, but the organisations like the BoE and obviously politicians (who one assumes have access to the best information that the "organs of the state" can gather) seem hopelessly out of touch a lot of the time, so one wonders how much "out of the box" thinking the BoE etc. actually do undertake.
You make the point yourself re the Brexit credentials of any aspiring BoE applicant.
Failing to consider the seemingly daft questions is "Groupthink" by another name.
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Shapps finds that dishonest trolling has consequences.
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I do think, in all seriousness, this isn't really a problem of Tory or even BoE making, as much as I like to stick it to both.First.Aspect said:
Well he'd have told the country what to expect, at least. It removes the appearance of the BoE being a headless chicken.rick_chasey said:You think Carney would have done the job differently?
This is really an issue across the globe and basically the BoE more or less has to follow the Fed and ECB pretty closely.
At the margins, relative to the rest of the developed world, the I think the BoE and the gov't have an impact, clearly, but this inflation has been pretty much universal across Europe and the US, and the regional difference are as much to do with their own natural exposure to different issues (Germany on Russian Energy for example), some of which are more or less self inflicted.0 -
Brexit is undoubtedly making things worse. Which i blame the tories for. As is dithering by the BoE last year. Inflation is probably 3% higher than it should be.0
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Indeed. And as for the earlier discussion, I'd take I if AI isn't an option.rick_chasey said:Extremely self inflicted.
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They have a very limited mandate and a very limited number of tools so what questions should they have been asking?wallace_and_gromit said:
Actually you do. You should never make any key decision without having considered the seemingly "daft" questions. Without considering them you cannot have any confidence that the question concerned does not raise a serious issue. By only thinking within the box, you are automatically constraining your answer to a limited number of acceptable outcomes.surrey_commuter said:
I am not sure you want or need "out of the box thinking" when setting base rate.wallace_and_gromit said:
Re 1, fair point to an extent, but there are some interesting themes on Twitter if one is prepared to keep an open mind.surrey_commuter said:1. I would agree that interest rate setters (politicians and civil servants) would benefit from greater exposure to the real world but that is not to be found on Twitter.
2. I also think you would be surprised at how many data points they study as what they need are leading indicators.
RE 2, maybe, but the organisations like the BoE and obviously politicians (who one assumes have access to the best information that the "organs of the state" can gather) seem hopelessly out of touch a lot of the time, so one wonders how much "out of the box" thinking the BoE etc. actually do undertake.
You make the point yourself re the Brexit credentials of any aspiring BoE applicant.
Failing to consider the seemingly daft questions is "Groupthink" by another name.
FWIW I think they asked the right questions but got the wrong answers.
I think they should have let the economy take a hit from Brexit and Covid but they treated both as a demand problem not supply0 -
Two years ago, there should have been more thought given as to whether the rise in inflation at that time really was just "transitory". There was a lot of chat in social media at the time questioning this conclusion. Maybe they just made the wrong judgement call.surrey_commuter said:
They have a very limited mandate and a very limited number of tools so what questions should they have been asking?wallace_and_gromit said:
Actually you do. You should never make any key decision without having considered the seemingly "daft" questions. Without considering them you cannot have any confidence that the question concerned does not raise a serious issue. By only thinking within the box, you are automatically constraining your answer to a limited number of acceptable outcomes.surrey_commuter said:
I am not sure you want or need "out of the box thinking" when setting base rate.wallace_and_gromit said:
Re 1, fair point to an extent, but there are some interesting themes on Twitter if one is prepared to keep an open mind.surrey_commuter said:1. I would agree that interest rate setters (politicians and civil servants) would benefit from greater exposure to the real world but that is not to be found on Twitter.
2. I also think you would be surprised at how many data points they study as what they need are leading indicators.
RE 2, maybe, but the organisations like the BoE and obviously politicians (who one assumes have access to the best information that the "organs of the state" can gather) seem hopelessly out of touch a lot of the time, so one wonders how much "out of the box" thinking the BoE etc. actually do undertake.
You make the point yourself re the Brexit credentials of any aspiring BoE applicant.
Failing to consider the seemingly daft questions is "Groupthink" by another name.
But my comment was more aimed at politicians etc. in general, who seem to surround themselves with "yes men" and actively avoid considering scenarios that might result in them having to question their beliefs and / or prior judgement.
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On a lighter note, my new MP, Keir Mather, appears to be younger than my children. He's allegedly 25, but if true, he's clearly got the "Peter Pan" gene. Anyway, he represents the "Not Tory" party, which is the main thing.
There was apparently a lot of anger "on the doorsteps" that the outgoing MP, Nigel Adams, took his bat and ball home when he didn't get a peerage, which presumably helped Keir Junior over the line.0 -
I suspect our biggest disagreement is over the importance of social media.wallace_and_gromit said:
Two years ago, there should have been more thought given as to whether the rise in inflation at that time really was just "transitory". There was a lot of chat in social media at the time questioning this conclusion. Maybe they just made the wrong judgement call.surrey_commuter said:
They have a very limited mandate and a very limited number of tools so what questions should they have been asking?wallace_and_gromit said:
Actually you do. You should never make any key decision without having considered the seemingly "daft" questions. Without considering them you cannot have any confidence that the question concerned does not raise a serious issue. By only thinking within the box, you are automatically constraining your answer to a limited number of acceptable outcomes.surrey_commuter said:
I am not sure you want or need "out of the box thinking" when setting base rate.wallace_and_gromit said:
Re 1, fair point to an extent, but there are some interesting themes on Twitter if one is prepared to keep an open mind.surrey_commuter said:1. I would agree that interest rate setters (politicians and civil servants) would benefit from greater exposure to the real world but that is not to be found on Twitter.
2. I also think you would be surprised at how many data points they study as what they need are leading indicators.
RE 2, maybe, but the organisations like the BoE and obviously politicians (who one assumes have access to the best information that the "organs of the state" can gather) seem hopelessly out of touch a lot of the time, so one wonders how much "out of the box" thinking the BoE etc. actually do undertake.
You make the point yourself re the Brexit credentials of any aspiring BoE applicant.
Failing to consider the seemingly daft questions is "Groupthink" by another name.
But my comment was more aimed at politicians etc. in general, who seem to surround themselves with "yes men" and actively avoid considering scenarios that might result in them having to question their beliefs and / or prior judgement.
Two years ago the Govt was doing colossal QE to help the economy. Very few agreed with me that they were merely funding day to day Govt borrowing. For the BofE to have raised rates at the same time would have been very controversial and probably resulted in them losing their independence.0 -
Weird how the only place they scraped a win last night is where they were campaigning against their own policies.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Bit of a pasting in the 3 by elections. They seem to have lost a majority of 20.000 in Yorkshire to a school kid, Lib Dems take the Somerset seat for the first time and just about cling on in Boris’s old seat on a recount.
Quite funny that the new Tory MP in Uxbridge put his win with a much reduced majority down to Sadiq Khan losing it for Labour with the ULEZ. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of himself or the Tories!0 -
They could have done less QE. They could do QT instead of interest rate rises.surrey_commuter said:
I suspect our biggest disagreement is over the importance of social media.wallace_and_gromit said:
Two years ago, there should have been more thought given as to whether the rise in inflation at that time really was just "transitory". There was a lot of chat in social media at the time questioning this conclusion. Maybe they just made the wrong judgement call.surrey_commuter said:
They have a very limited mandate and a very limited number of tools so what questions should they have been asking?wallace_and_gromit said:
Actually you do. You should never make any key decision without having considered the seemingly "daft" questions. Without considering them you cannot have any confidence that the question concerned does not raise a serious issue. By only thinking within the box, you are automatically constraining your answer to a limited number of acceptable outcomes.surrey_commuter said:
I am not sure you want or need "out of the box thinking" when setting base rate.wallace_and_gromit said:
Re 1, fair point to an extent, but there are some interesting themes on Twitter if one is prepared to keep an open mind.surrey_commuter said:1. I would agree that interest rate setters (politicians and civil servants) would benefit from greater exposure to the real world but that is not to be found on Twitter.
2. I also think you would be surprised at how many data points they study as what they need are leading indicators.
RE 2, maybe, but the organisations like the BoE and obviously politicians (who one assumes have access to the best information that the "organs of the state" can gather) seem hopelessly out of touch a lot of the time, so one wonders how much "out of the box" thinking the BoE etc. actually do undertake.
You make the point yourself re the Brexit credentials of any aspiring BoE applicant.
Failing to consider the seemingly daft questions is "Groupthink" by another name.
But my comment was more aimed at politicians etc. in general, who seem to surround themselves with "yes men" and actively avoid considering scenarios that might result in them having to question their beliefs and / or prior judgement.
Two years ago the Govt was doing colossal QE to help the economy. Very few agreed with me that they were merely funding day to day Govt borrowing. For the BofE to have raised rates at the same time would have been very controversial and probably resulted in them losing their independence.0 -
Looks like it's ULEZ wot won it for the Tories in Uxbridge."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0
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I'm amazed the Lib Dems haven't won Somerton before, but maybe it's a relatively new seat following boundary changes. It really is their heartland.Pross said:Bit of a pasting in the 3 by elections. They seem to have lost a majority of 20.000 in Yorkshire to a school kid, Lib Dems take the Somerset seat for the first time and just about cling on in Boris’s old seat on a recount.
Quite funny that the new Tory MP in Uxbridge put his win with a much reduced majority down to Sadiq Khan losing it for Labour with the ULEZ. Not exactly a ringing endorsement of himself or the Tories!
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Stevo_666 said:
Looks like it's ULEZ wot won it for the Tories in Uxbridge.
Looks like it, but that won't be much comfort for a GE. And the narrowness of the victory might give those who voted for the Libdem candidate pause for thought: a few more tactical get-the-Tories-out votes would have swung it.0 -
Why are they not turbo charging the QT?TheBigBean said:
They could have done less QE. They could do QT instead of interest rate rises.surrey_commuter said:
I suspect our biggest disagreement is over the importance of social media.wallace_and_gromit said:
Two years ago, there should have been more thought given as to whether the rise in inflation at that time really was just "transitory". There was a lot of chat in social media at the time questioning this conclusion. Maybe they just made the wrong judgement call.surrey_commuter said:
They have a very limited mandate and a very limited number of tools so what questions should they have been asking?wallace_and_gromit said:
Actually you do. You should never make any key decision without having considered the seemingly "daft" questions. Without considering them you cannot have any confidence that the question concerned does not raise a serious issue. By only thinking within the box, you are automatically constraining your answer to a limited number of acceptable outcomes.surrey_commuter said:
I am not sure you want or need "out of the box thinking" when setting base rate.wallace_and_gromit said:
Re 1, fair point to an extent, but there are some interesting themes on Twitter if one is prepared to keep an open mind.surrey_commuter said:1. I would agree that interest rate setters (politicians and civil servants) would benefit from greater exposure to the real world but that is not to be found on Twitter.
2. I also think you would be surprised at how many data points they study as what they need are leading indicators.
RE 2, maybe, but the organisations like the BoE and obviously politicians (who one assumes have access to the best information that the "organs of the state" can gather) seem hopelessly out of touch a lot of the time, so one wonders how much "out of the box" thinking the BoE etc. actually do undertake.
You make the point yourself re the Brexit credentials of any aspiring BoE applicant.
Failing to consider the seemingly daft questions is "Groupthink" by another name.
But my comment was more aimed at politicians etc. in general, who seem to surround themselves with "yes men" and actively avoid considering scenarios that might result in them having to question their beliefs and / or prior judgement.
Two years ago the Govt was doing colossal QE to help the economy. Very few agreed with me that they were merely funding day to day Govt borrowing. For the BofE to have raised rates at the same time would have been very controversial and probably resulted in them losing their independence.0
