Milano-Sanremo 2018 *Spoilers*

rick_chasey

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Who's gonna shepherd Nibs around the twists and turns of flanders?

Not a chance he'll be in the mix with 40km to go.

Aye that's the traditionalist view and you could be right, Nibali himself said something about needing to ride a race a few times before you are in a position to win it and that probably applies to Flanders more than just about any other race. I think he has the tools to ride it and do well but he probably does need back up even more than the experienced riders.

He could do with being a little more explosive.

There's a reason big sprinters with an engine always do well in Flanders.

Or big engines with decent sprints.

Nibs is neither really.

ShutupJens

Feel like if he rode he would do the race justice. But it would take a seriously chaotic race for him to end up in the finale unaccompanied

salsiccia1

Nibali winning Flanders would be an astonishing achievement.

On a slightly different note, has Valverde ever ridden MSR?

rick_chasey

So here's a question.

Is there any particular reason why we've had more interesting finale's in the last two editions?

Or is it just slightly random, given the delicate balance the distance + finale creates between moves on the poggio and a bunch finish?

ocdupalais

Rick Chasey wrote:

So here's a question.

Is there any particular reason why we've had more interesting finale's in the last two editions?

Or is it just slightly random, given the delicate balance the distance + finale creates between moves on the poggio and a bunch finish?

Slightly random + slightly smaller teams = slightly more difficult to bring strong attacks over top of Poggio by supreme descenders...

salsiccia1

Rick Chasey wrote:

So here's a question.

Is there any particular reason why we've had more interesting finale's in the last two editions?

Or is it just slightly random, given the delicate balance the distance + finale creates between moves on the poggio and a bunch finish?

I think it's down to Sagan, but for different reasons between this and last year. Last year, he pre-empted attacks by going himself and as he was so strong only a few could follow. This year, everyone was waiting for him, no-one wanted to chase down attacks on the Poggio and give him an armchair ride, so Nibali was allowed to get a decent gap (and a handy tow off the camera bike).

rick_chasey

Is the big headwind relevant?

Big hitters on the Poggio need fresher legs to ride up the Poggio fast enough?

TheBigBean

Anyway, good to hear that Nibali is considering Flanders. I like to see GT riders mix it up and I like to see riders trying to win all the monuments.

Bo Duke

Its the unpredictability (or randomness) of the MSR that makes it so interesting. A 7:20h race and no idea how it's going to finish until the last 5 yards....

inseine

Salsiccia1 wrote:

Nibali winning Flanders would be an astonishing achievement.

On a slightly different note, has Valverde ever ridden MSR?

Only about 6 times. last was 2 years ago.

ShutupJens

Rick Chasey wrote:

Is the big headwind relevant?

Big hitters on the Poggio need fresher legs to ride up the Poggio fast enough?

I was under the impression that the headwind made things slightly easier, ie along the coast roads before anything happens, as it wears the break out and then also the pace is not as hot on the Capo's/Cipressa

The reason why nothing happened was that the "softener" attacks such as from Bora and BMC came later on than usual, then before you know it a big group has crested the Poggio and it's too late to try anything from the bunch, you needed to be ahead by then as Nibali demonstrated

As Nathan Haas pointed out in his post race interview, he was just sitting and watching Sagan. I am guessing that was the tactic for the majority of other riders who were able to position themselves late on - when actually you need riders who are willing to chance their arm and go without waiting for someone else to validate their move. In this case, fortune did very much favour the brave

Vino'sGhost

Salsiccia1 wrote:

Nibali winning Flanders would be an astonishing achievement.

On a slightly different note, has Valverde ever ridden MSR?

I can imagine valverde would have to do a break on the poggio too to win. I cant imagine anyone working with him if there was a small group away so Solo prob most likely

philbar72

Rick Chasey wrote:

So here's a question.

Is there any particular reason why we've had more interesting finale's in the last two editions?

Or is it just slightly random, given the delicate balance the distance + finale creates between moves on the poggio and a bunch finish?

Its down to the fear of Sagan. Basically you can’t out descend him, and you’d have to play him well to beat him in a sprint. Of the more modern sprinters I’d say he can’t outkick a viviani, Ewan or Gaviria, Demare and Kristoff are a bit one dimensional, i.e have to launch early and hope, of course if they arrive gassed, out of sorts or 1 % off their game he’d take them.

Look at how Kwiatko arrived last year. Let a gap go then kicked past at the end. Ciolek in 2013, let him lead out then got him in the end...

This year though outside the fact they were all together at the base of the poggio, it was isolated attacks and when kwiatko or Sagan were near the front they delayed. Trentin had the right idea but went too late to get across to Nibbles.

Plus its a bit random!

tailwindhome

Michael Rasmussen@MRasmussen1974

And just make one thing clear. You are not lucky when you attack after 285 km and it proves to be the winning move.

ContrelaMontre

TailWindHome wrote:

Michael Rasmussen@MRasmussen1974

And just make one thing clear. You are not lucky when you attack after 285 km and it proves to be the winning move.

First sensible thing I've seen quoted from that source. Even a stopped clock tells the right time twice a day.

m.r.m.

Milton50 wrote:

It's not about TT skills (although I would actually argue that if Sagan could be bothered with TTs then he would beat Nibali).

Sagan's body composition in terms of muscle fibres makes this utterly wrong. Being good at sprinting means you have a lot of fast twitch fibres. The flip side is you tire out and can't hold hold your max effort for as long as athletes with pure endurance fibres (it's red vs. white muscle fibres).

There are exceptions to the rule in the sense that Sagan can climb (better than pure sprinters) and Cancellara can sprint (better than pure climbers or testers), but even there they lose out to the elite in each specific discipline because of being (elite) "hybrids" (Sagan in climbing/TT'ing, Cancellara in sprinting e.g.).

This is inescapable. Valverde has a great sprint; for a climber. He will not outsprint any decent sprinter. This directly influences even power to weight figures since that is only meaningful in the context of the length of the effort.

Doesn't mean all that much in the context of a race though, since other factors are more important and pressing on a random race day (having the legs, tactics, luck etc).

This is of course for a regular TT. Sprinters and hybrid sprinters do great on short prologue type of TT's since the length of the effort is quite short. Kittel getting 6th in the Tour prologue is a good example.

Also, your genetics predetermine your fibres. Going to the gym and training explosive efforts strengthens your existing explosive fibres. But if you tend to have more endurance fibres you will not replace those with the others. You will simply improve the existing ones. So, if your genetics determine you have very few fast twitch fibres, you will not be able to become a world class sprinter. It would make more sense to become an all rounder or climber depending on your other fibres and your mitochondrial activity and lung capacity etc etc.

milton50

M.R.M. wrote:

Milton50 wrote:

It's not about TT skills (although I would actually argue that if Sagan could be bothered with TTs then he would beat Nibali).

Sagan's body composition in terms of muscle fibres makes this utterly wrong. Being good at sprinting means you have a lot of fast twitch fibres. The flip side is you tire out and can't hold hold your max effort for as long as athletes with pure endurance fibres (it's red vs. white muscle fibres).

There are exceptions to the rule in the sense that Sagan can climb (better than pure sprinters) and Cancellara can sprint (better than pure climbers or testers), but even there they lose out to the elite in each specific discipline because of being (elite) "hybrids" (Sagan in climbing/TT'ing, Cancellara in sprinting e.g.).

You'd class Nibali as an elite time triallist?

andyp

Salsiccia1 wrote:

Nibali winning Flanders would be an astonishing achievement.

On a slightly different note, has Valverde ever ridden MSR?

Six times, best finish is 15th.

DeVlaeminck

M.R.M. wrote:

Milton50 wrote:

It's not about TT skills (although I would actually argue that if Sagan could be bothered with TTs then he would beat Nibali).

Sagan's body composition in terms of muscle fibres makes this utterly wrong. Being good at sprinting means you have a lot of fast twitch fibres. The flip side is you tire out and can't hold hold your max effort for as long as athletes with pure endurance fibres (it's red vs. white muscle fibres).

There are exceptions to the rule in the sense that Sagan can climb (better than pure sprinters) and Cancellara can sprint (better than pure climbers or testers), but even there they lose out to the elite in each specific discipline because of being (elite) "hybrids" (Sagan in climbing/TT'ing, Cancellara in sprinting e.g.).

This is inescapable. Valverde has a great sprint; for a climber. He will not outsprint any decent sprinter. This directly influences even power to weight figures since that is only meaningful in the context of the length of the effort.

Doesn't mean all that much in the context of a race though, since other factors are more important and pressing on a random race day (having the legs, tactics, luck etc).

This is of course for a regular TT. Sprinters and hybrid sprinters do great on short prologue type of TT's since the length of the effort is quite short. Kittel getting 6th in the Tour prologue is a good example.

Also, your genetics predetermine your fibres. Going to the gym and training explosive efforts strengthens your existing explosive fibres. But if you tend to have more endurance fibres you will not replace those with the others. You will simply improve the existing ones. So, if your genetics determine you have very few fast twitch fibres, you will not be able to become a world class sprinter. It would make more sense to become an all rounder or climber depending on your other fibres and your mitochondrial activity and lung capacity etc etc.

Of course though they are all endurance athletes, some are just endurance athletes with a better sprint but none are actually sprinters in the way Usain Bolt or Chris Hoy is a sprinter. At the end of a hard race Cancellara could sprint - Wiggins could put in world class short distance TTs - Merckx won bunch sprints and mountain stages. In short I don't think we can say with certainty that being a good sprinter means Sagan couldn't be a top TTer if he worked at it - maybe he couldn't be both at the same time like Merckx but that's another matter.

m.r.m.

Milton50 wrote:

M.R.M. wrote:

Milton50 wrote:

It's not about TT skills (although I would actually argue that if Sagan could be bothered with TTs then he would beat Nibali).

Sagan's body composition in terms of muscle fibres makes this utterly wrong. Being good at sprinting means you have a lot of fast twitch fibres. The flip side is you tire out and can't hold hold your max effort for as long as athletes with pure endurance fibres (it's red vs. white muscle fibres).

There are exceptions to the rule in the sense that Sagan can climb (better than pure sprinters) and Cancellara can sprint (better than pure climbers or testers), but even there they lose out to the elite in each specific discipline because of being (elite) "hybrids" (Sagan in climbing/TT'ing, Cancellara in sprinting e.g.).

You'd class Nibali as an elite time triallist?

No, but certainly better than Sagan on a middle distance or long TT.

m.r.m.

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Of course though they are all endurance athletes, some are just endurance athletes with a better sprint but none are actually sprinters in the way Usain Bolt or Chris Hoy is a sprinter. At the end of a hard race Cancellara could sprint - Wiggins could put in world class short distance TTs - Merckx won bunch sprints and mountain stages. In short I don't think we can say with certainty that being a good sprinter means Sagan couldn't be a top TTer if he worked at it - maybe he couldn't be both at the same time like Merckx but that's another matter.

Sure, but I still maintain there is a reason certain riders end up fulfilling specific roles in the pro peloton. If your genetics make you a sprinter, no amount of training will make you an elite climber.

Showing 100 results Sagan has 2 wins in TT. Slovakian NC (which can be disregarded) and a ToC TT which was super short and hence suits a hybrid sprinter perfectly.

https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider.p ... ter=Filter

Nibali has several good results particularly in GT's. There is no way anyone can state them being on par in a non-short TT let alone Sagan being better.

https://www.procyclingstats.com/rider.p ... ter=Filter

Of course there is no disproving Sagan could work on it and be awesomesauce, but I remain unconvinced. Rather seems like too much Sagan fanboyism (He is amazing, but not at everything).

RichN95.

It's hard to assess Sagan's time trial ability. He's not often in a position where he needs to make an effort. Usually it's basically a rest day for him.

m.r.m.

If his back isn't flat enough for P-R, it isn't flat enough for TT's

iainf72

M.R.M. wrote:

If his back isn't flat enough for P-R, it isn't flat enough for TT's

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/tour-o ... 6/results/

milton50

RichN95 wrote:

It's hard to assess Sagan's time trial ability. He's not often in a position where he needs to make an effort. Usually it's basically a rest day for him.

That was my point, yes. If for whatever reason he wanted/needed to put in good TT performances (as in California) then I think he would be better than Nibali.

But it was just an off the cuff remark really. I wasn't expecting a heated debate!

graeme_s-2

Milton50 wrote:

But it was just an off the cuff remark really. I wasn't expecting a heated debate!

So this is your first time posting on an internet forum?

ocdupalais

iainf72 wrote:

M.R.M. wrote:

If his back isn't flat enough for P-R, it isn't flat enough for TT's

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/tour-o ... 6/results/

Sagan’s 2015 ToC - A contender for the best week long stage race in recent years.
(Stannard’s 2015 Omloop - A contender for best one day race in recent years).

rick_chasey

OCDuPalais wrote:

iainf72 wrote:

M.R.M. wrote:

If his back isn't flat enough for P-R, it isn't flat enough for TT's

http://www.cyclingnews.com/races/tour-o ... 6/results/

Sagan’s 2015 ToC - A contender for the best week long stage race in recent years.
(Stannard’s 2015 Omloop - A contender for best one day race in recent years).

2016 Paris Roubaix is a stone cold classic.

Top draw.

Has everything.

Best one-day race I've watched live. Probably better than 2002 Paris Roubaix which was where my Boonen fandom started.

OK, I'm starting a new thread.

timoid.

Rick Chasey wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Fantastic, would have been a great finish had that been any rider but for Nibali who has had that as a career goal for so long, being an Italian, being a rider with no sprint in an era when riders like that don't win MSR makes that a hard act for any other race to follow this year.

Without wanting to sound Kirby like, Nibz got a decent tow off the camerabike. Suspect had it not been a popular Italian that advantage would not have been quite so big...

This. I was screaming at the tv. He was towed up the Poggio the motorbike. Moser-tastic way to win.

rick_chasey

Timoid. wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

DeVlaeminck wrote:

Fantastic, would have been a great finish had that been any rider but for Nibali who has had that as a career goal for so long, being an Italian, being a rider with no sprint in an era when riders like that don't win MSR makes that a hard act for any other race to follow this year.

Without wanting to sound Kirby like, Nibz got a decent tow off the camerabike. Suspect had it not been a popular Italian that advantage would not have been quite so big...

This. I was screaming at the tv. He was towed up the Poggio the motorbike. Moser-tastic way to win.

Wouldn't be cycling without these weird anachronisms though.