Britain's response to Russia

Pross

orraloon wrote:

Get Dan Roan on the case.

He's busy dealing with more important scandals (and won't want to jeopardise his summer jaunt to the footie).

Pross

Pinno wrote:

What I can't figure out (as well as the missing posts) is how they got such a volatile substance into the UK and then managed to take it all the way to Salisbury and 'administer' it. Unless there's a van load of sick Russians about to be driven off Southend Pier by their own comrades soon.

Someone hasn't been watching Strike Back, novachoks were developed to be undetectable and can be disguised in a aerosol.

pinno

Pross wrote:

Pinno wrote:

What I can't figure out (as well as the missing posts) is how they got such a volatile substance into the UK and then managed to take it all the way to Salisbury and 'administer' it. Unless there's a van load of sick Russians about to be driven off Southend Pier by their own comrades soon.

Someone hasn't been watching Strike Back, novachoks were developed to be undetectable and can be disguised in a aerosol.

It's been identified as one of the Novochok agents, so that didn't work did it?

bompington wrote:

In a jiffy bag, of course!

Of course, silly me.

tangled_metal

An interesting interview with a chemical weapons expert who IIRC was part of an independent weapons watch organisation in R4 this afternoon. He explained a lot about the situation IMHO.

For a start in the mid 90s there was a western research organisation (American IIRC) determined the state of Russian military locations where this toxin was stored was insecure. The scientists had not been paid for months and many of the locations were abandoned with no security guards, wooden doors, tiled flooring and other things that make it entirely possible for the toxin to get taken by inappropriate personnel.

However the way the toxin was very effective meant that it was fresh. Any toxins stolen from bases in the time of the collapse of USSR and the difficult financial period after it would have degraded to a level that it wouldn't have been so effective.

This means it's a relatively recently produced toxin. It's a toxin that needs a specialist facility to make it. It's a toxin that's only been made by Russia. The DSTL lab is Britain's chemical and biological weapons experts. Other nations have similar establishments but this one is highly regarded globally. All nations with such facilities will monitor what other nations have in their chemical and biological weapons capability. Including samples of the toxins others have. This allows for comparison between the sample obtained from Salisbury and samples held there from our capabilities and that of other state actors. If they tell politicians it's a Russian toxin it will be a Russian toxin.

So how was it administered? The investigation will be poring over cctv from the area and elsewhere. They'll be identifying and tracking persons of interest. It is highly likely they do know who was likely to have been involved. As in the ppl administering the toxin.

A lot of this is secret and will never be made public. That does not mean they can't prove who was involved to a level that strategic decisions can't be made. So if May says Russia is culpable, they will be. I reckon you can be sure of this even if you don't see the evidence or any trial. I also think Russian responses also support this view.

We're waiting for the Russian response. It's a bit of a surprise that it's not happened yet. Russians would have a list of British spooks on Russia posing as cultural activities. They would know who they could expel because they're spies. Why hasn't it happened?

One theory is that the UK has actually surprised them with the short ultimatum and immediate statement of May. They're surprised at how there's actually Western support for UK statement blaming Russia. The news programme on R4 had a commentator who said that the FCO is actually likely to see this delay as a bit of a win.

The other point to make is that the expulsions of Russian spies takes out a high proportion of Russian intelligence activity in the UK in the form of old fashioned espionage. Russians might be struggling to determine a list of spies with similar effectiveness. The Russian spies will be their most effective operators so their loss is an impact that's noticed.

Russia tends to be more bureaucratic in their spying. They tend to collect more information, many of which is not actually useful. Takes more spies to handle it. Plus UK is a lot easier to operate in than Western spies find Russia. This means fewer Western spies operating there. We prefer other means like electronic means of espionage I believe the commentator said. This means the negative aspects of a tit for tat expulsions are greater for Russia than the UK. Overall Russian interests will be harder hit than ours.

However it's all the same old spy game.

cycleclinic

All the above could be quite true but it does not matter either. Nations need advisaries as well as friends. Sadly it the way tribes work. So long shooting does not start as that is generally bad for those involved (Syrians would agree) then this likely russian over reach serves boths sides well. The British state and the government suddenly looks all competant. This may have saved may for the time being. In Russia Putin's grip was not in doubt but his position as head of the mafia state more secure.

So this incident is self peteruating there is much more to come.

pblakeney

Quick question. Does this help or hinder Putin's re-election?
Just a thought...

surrey_commuter

PBlakeney wrote:

Quick question. Does this help or hinder Putin's re-election?
Just a thought...[/quote

tangled_metal

It helps I'd have thought. Certainly had kept him from having to ride topless through the steppes or go bear wrestling in the wilds to show he's "'da man!"

Do you think he's lost his figure and can't do those action poses any more? Is that why these assassinations happened? Only it took rather a lot and a really obvious one before it got international recognition! Took up to 15 deaths before the west cottoned on and got their pants in a twist!

cycleclinic

That's what I mean this crisis suits both sides. If Putin did not order the hit then he can root out who did quietly and bump them off.

surrey_commuter

OK I thought everybody was joking about the Russian election.

There is more chance of you being hit by lightning than Putin losing. His political opponents get beaten senseless, incarcerated, poisoned with life changing consequences or die.

One of the best writers on Russia is Edward Lucas. Twenty years ago he was seen as a paranoid nutter, now people realised they should have listened. Also check out the problems business people (ie BP) have out there.

At the same time the UK has provided a friendly home for dissidents and money launderers. Analysts ave tried to quantify the amount of GDP growth driven by inflows of dodgy money and it is significant enough for us not to risk turning off the tap.

If we seize/freeze assets then you might scare off all the other dodgy people funnelling money into London

tangled_metal

thecycleclinic wrote:

If Putin did not order the hit then he can root out who did quietly and bump them off.

That works for me too. Although even if he did order the hit he may well still bump off those who did the hit and their immediate command. Possibly right up to the point where they know it was his order. At that point he's probably got a degree of trust.

BTW Russia breeds paranoia, suspicion and conspiracy. I reckon it was always so!

pinno

Churchill: [Russia] "It is a riddle wrapped in a mystery inside an enigma".

A Russian billionaire residing in London gave an interview to Newsnight last night.
His opinion is that the Kremlin contains around 100 individuals that are criminals and that until about 3 years ago, Putin controlled them but the suggestion is that it's now the other way around.

surrey_commuter

Tangled Metal wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

If Putin did not order the hit then he can root out who did quietly and bump them off.

That works for me too. Although even if he did order the hit he may well still bump off those who did the hit and their immediate command. Possibly right up to the point where they know it was his order. At that point he's probably got a degree of trust.

BTW Russia breeds paranoia, suspicion and conspiracy. I reckon it was always so!

Not sure paranoia is the right diagnosis

Paranoia is a persistent, irrational feeling that people are 'out to get you' or of constantly being watched or listened to.

surrey_commuter

this is a good concise piece by Ed Lucas in Today's Times

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comm ... -l0nrknlsq

Interesting that he says UK is isolated as have only had verbal backing from our so-called allies

Matthewfalle

we just had a brief chat about cyclewheelman's comments at work and although he may know differently, none of us fancy a punch up with the Russians.

orraloon

Matthewfalle wrote:

we just had a brief chat about cyclewheelman's comments at work and although he may know differently, none of us fancy a punch up with the Russians.

Ok so it's all back to Fat Les and his mates then? World's finest fighting men etc etc blah de blah.

kingstongraham

Surrey Commuter wrote:

If we seize/freeze assets then you might scare off all the other dodgy people funnelling money into London

Works for me.

surrey_commuter

KingstonGraham wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

If we seize/freeze assets then you might scare off all the other dodgy people funnelling money into London

Works for me.

Not that easy... at the moment our balance of payments look less worse because of the money coming in. If you stop the money coming in and create an outflow then BoP gets worse and you risk a potential run on the £ further flight or capital and rising interest rates. This money will also be invested in assets so productivity goes down etc

Now who decides who is undesirable? as we will need to make a decision on the ruling families in various Gulf States.

There are some good reasons why we turn a blind eye to these things.

tangled_metal

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Tangled Metal wrote:

thecycleclinic wrote:

If Putin did not order the hit then he can root out who did quietly and bump them off.

That works for me too. Although even if he did order the hit he may well still bump off those who did the hit and their immediate command. Possibly right up to the point where they know it was his order. At that point he's probably got a degree of trust.

BTW Russia breeds paranoia, suspicion and conspiracy. I reckon it was always so!

Not sure paranoia is the right diagnosis

Paranoia is a persistent, irrational feeling that people are 'out to get you' or of constantly being watched or listened to.

It is if you're a Russian emigre. Suspicion and conspiracy is what everyone else in the west feels towards Russia.

Matthewfalle

orraloon wrote:

Matthewfalle wrote:

we just had a brief chat about cyclewheelman's comments at work and although he may know differently, none of us fancy a punch up with the Russians.

Ok so it's all back to Fat Les and his mates then? World's finest fighting men etc etc blah de blah.

The worlds finest fighting men can also be quite sensible and realize when you’re onto a loser.

I’m happy to let Fat Les have a pop if he wants.

orraloon

Matthewfalle wrote:

orraloon wrote:

Matthewfalle wrote:

we just had a brief chat about cyclewheelman's comments at work and although he may know differently, none of us fancy a punch up with the Russians.

Ok so it's all back to Fat Les and his mates then? World's finest fighting men etc etc blah de blah.

The worlds finest fighting men can also be quite sensible and realize when you’re onto a loser.

I’m happy to let Fat Les have a pop if he wants.

Ackshully, I was using the term somewhat tongue in cheek to refer to Fat Les et al. Enticing prospect of the overweight and under-intelligenced Ingerlaaand barmy army 'performing' on the home turf of Russian hooligans.

Pross

Even if I were the most ardent England football supporter I wouldn't be going out to the World Cup. No matter how well behaved you are I suspect there be a certain amount of encouragement off the record by the powers that be for the local ultras to go on the rampage. Sure, they'll get the police to offer some token action to keep FIFA happy but I doubt they'll be protecting certain foreign supporters too enthusiastically.

robert88

Pross wrote:

Even if I were the most ardent England football supporter I wouldn't be going out to the World Cup. No matter how well behaved you are I suspect there be a certain amount of encouragement off the record by the powers that be for the local ultras to go on the rampage. Sure, they'll get the police to offer some token action to keep FIFA happy but I doubt they'll be protecting certain foreign supporters too enthusiastically.

They do like to show how tough they are.

He that shall live this day, and see old age,
.. will he strip his sleeve and show his scars,
And say "Yeah, those f**kin' Russians did that.."

rjsterry

Glushkov case now being investigated as murder.

Matthewfalle

KingstonGraham wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

If we seize/freeze assets then you might scare off all the other dodgy people funnelling money into London

Works for me.

Yeah right. For one thing, what will all the bankers and lawyers do?

SC really does live in cloud cuckoo land. I

Matthewfalle

UEFA's sense of humour. Oh how it makes me giggle.

https://www.theguardian.com/football/20 ... -in-moscow

bristolpete

Double agent.

Killed by MI5.

Blame Russia.

Anyone else thinking this ?

awavey

Robert88 wrote:

Pross wrote:

Even if I were the most ardent England football supporter I wouldn't be going out to the World Cup. No matter how well behaved you are I suspect there be a certain amount of encouragement off the record by the powers that be for the local ultras to go on the rampage. Sure, they'll get the police to offer some token action to keep FIFA happy but I doubt they'll be protecting certain foreign supporters too enthusiastically.

They do like to show how tough they are.

the cost of the trips and availability of tickets will put alot off though, its not quite the same as hopping on a Eurostar and sleeping on a bench which is apparently what alot of the Fat les types did for Marseille, and I dont think the England games are in particularly great, as in places people want to visit, locations either.

though I have been teasing one of the guys in the office who is going, costing best part of 2grand just for the group games, that the Ruskies will cancel all the England fans visas now, but not tell them till they try to get in

surrey_commuter

Matthewfalle wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

If we seize/freeze assets then you might scare off all the other dodgy people funnelling money into London

Works for me.

Yeah right. For one thing, what will all the bankers and lawyers do?

SC really does live in cloud cuckoo land. I

So tell me why I am wrong - Google is your friend. As a pointer look to US actions after the Iranian revolution.

DeVlaeminck

bristolpete wrote:

Double agent.

Killed by MI5.

Blame Russia.

Anyone else thinking this ?

Wouldn't there be easier ways to do it, unless we wanted a second cold war, I can't see what we gain though.