snap general election?

mrfpb

Latest "nowcast" from Britain Elects has Tories gaining 24 seats, Labour losing 18, Lib Dems gaining 4, SNP losing 9

The linked page also includes their probability of top 136 marginals changing hands

http://britainelects.com/nowcast/

kingstongraham

For Labour, it all depends on getting the young to actually vote.

18-24 years old, 71% Lab, 15% Con
25-49 years old, 46% Lab, 33% Con
49-64 years old, 33% Lab, 46% Con
65+ years old 19% Lab, 62% Con

coopster_the_1st

Rick Chasey wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

Latest YouGov projection has Tories losing seats...21 short of a majority.

That poll on absolute figures (not weighted by likelihood to vote and not excluding don't know/will not vote) now has Labour on 32%, Conservatives on 31%

So on this, it seems as much as 100 seats, many of which are swing seats, have not been polled AT ALL.

So for all we know, this is seriously way out.

I said earlier - labour MPs aren't feeling the swing on the doorstep very much, so perhaps that tallies.

At least you are starting to look critically at what experts are pushing out.

The best interests of the polling company is to have the result looking close. That way the media who also want sensationalist story's have something new to report and keep demanding new polls.

A 15 point lead means only one or two polls a week whereas a 2 point lead means a new poll every day

coopster_the_1st

KingstonGraham wrote:

For Labour, it all depends on getting the young to actually vote.

18-24 years old, 71% Lab, 15% Con
25-49 years old, 46% Lab, 33% Con
49-64 years old, 33% Lab, 46% Con
65+ years old 19% Lab, 62% Con

The best way to increase turnout amongst the young is to have a rare pokemon located at the polling station.

Which says it all really...

kingstongraham

Coopster the 1st wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

For Labour, it all depends on getting the young to actually vote.

18-24 years old, 71% Lab, 15% Con
25-49 years old, 46% Lab, 33% Con
49-64 years old, 33% Lab, 46% Con
65+ years old 19% Lab, 62% Con

The best way to increase turnout amongst the young is to have a rare pokemon located at the polling station.

Which says it all really...

Your take on young people is based on them still playing Pokémon Go?

coopster_the_1st

KingstonGraham wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

For Labour, it all depends on getting the young to actually vote.

18-24 years old, 71% Lab, 15% Con
25-49 years old, 46% Lab, 33% Con
49-64 years old, 33% Lab, 46% Con
65+ years old 19% Lab, 62% Con

The best way to increase turnout amongst the young is to have a rare pokemon located at the polling station.

Which says it all really...

Your take on young people is based on them still playing Pokémon Go?

I'm using it as an example of what they see as their priorities.

You could replace pokemon with the latest on-brand trainer, latest iPhone, etc

I'm surprised JC has not offered the latest free on-brand trainer as part of his manifesto. Or maybe that is still to come...

mamba80

she is doing her best for the LibDems in SE Cornwall.......

http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/tory-ca ... story.html

Stevo_666

Still an 11 point gap according to this poll (done for Guardian btw):
http://www.ukpolitical.info/General_election_polls.htm

Should translate to a decent majority

mrfpb

Corbyn on Tyneside yesterday:



May and Ruth Davidson in Edinburgh (invited audience only)



Article here: http://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/jeremy-corbyn-fills-banks-tyne-theresa-may-cant-even-pack-small-room/05/06/

kingstongraham

So that says to me that Corbyn supporters are a combination of: a) more passionate about their guy b) more able to attend an event on a Monday during normal work hours and c) more likely to try to disrupt any announced visit by May to anything anywhere.

mrfpb

KingstonGraham wrote:

So that says to me that Corbyn supporters are a combination of: a) more passionate about their guy b) more able to attend an event on a Monday during normal work hours and c) more likely to try to disrupt any announced visit by May to anything anywhere.

But if the Tories are chasing marginals in Scotland, they are not going to reach people by hiding in a shed.

graeme_s-2

I like Corbyn and I'll be voting Labour at this election, but why is he wasting his time 3 days before a general election in one of the safest seats in the country? North Tyneside has a Labour MP with a majority of over 17,000 (the adjacent constituencies have smaller majorities but are far from marginals) - of course a load of people turned out to see him, they all voted for his candidate at the last election and they're likely going to elect them again at this election.

He should be targeting marginals at this point.

kingstongraham

mrfpb wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

So that says to me that Corbyn supporters are a combination of: a) more passionate about their guy b) more able to attend an event on a Monday during normal work hours and c) more likely to try to disrupt any announced visit by May to anything anywhere.

But if the Tories are chasing marginals in Scotland, they are not going to reach people by hiding in a shed.

If they allow in a TV camera they might.

meanredspider

Graeme_S wrote:

I like Corbyn and I'll be voting Labour at this election, but why is he wasting his time 3 days before a general election in one of the safest seats in the country? North Tyneside has a Labour MP with a majority of over 17,000 (the adjacent constituencies have smaller majorities but are far from marginals) - of course a load of people turned out to see him, they all voted for his candidate at the last election and they're likely going to elect them again at this election.

He should be targeting marginals at this point.

Yeah - frankly there's no difference between Corbyn and May in this respect - just different techniques. They both want to look popular in TV and other media.

feelgoodlost

KingstonGraham wrote:

So that says to me that Corbyn supporters are a combination of: a) more passionate about their guy b) more able to attend an event on a Monday during normal work hours and c) more likely to try to disrupt any announced visit by May to anything anywhere.

Just so you're aware... I was there and things didn't actually start until way after 6pm :roll:

kingstongraham

feelgoodlost wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

So that says to me that Corbyn supporters are a combination of: a) more passionate about their guy b) more able to attend an event on a Monday during normal work hours and c) more likely to try to disrupt any announced visit by May to anything anywhere.

Just so you're aware... I was there and things didn't actually start until way after 6pm :roll:

My mistake, sorry. Just a) and c) then.

rick_chasey

Maybot is err, maybot.

ugo.santalucia

Doing a good job Vs not doing a good job, looks like May is even borrowing Trump's rhetoric...

pblakeney

meanredspider wrote:

Graeme_S wrote:

I like Corbyn and I'll be voting Labour at this election, but why is he wasting his time 3 days before a general election in one of the safest seats in the country? North Tyneside has a Labour MP with a majority of over 17,000 (the adjacent constituencies have smaller majorities but are far from marginals) - of course a load of people turned out to see him, they all voted for his candidate at the last election and they're likely going to elect them again at this election.

He should be targeting marginals at this point.

Yeah - frankly there's no difference between Corbyn and May in this respect - just different techniques. They both want to look popular in TV and other media.

So they way to look popular in Scotland is to hide in a shed?

FocusZing

rick_chasey

So apaz internal polls for both Labour and Tories are predicting labour losses, not gains & that's what labour are preparing for.

Pross

I think it's fair to say the Left always appear more politically active and certainly make more noise. That said, the Tories started off looking complacent and arrogant. The plan seemed to just be to leave Labour to make themselves unelectable whilst not offering anything themselves which appears to be backfiring a bit.

The latest I've seen on social media is people encouraging vote swapping to gang up tactically against the Tories. It's quite a leap of faith to believe a complete stranger will vote for your party in return for you voting for theirs!

I still haven't made up my mind, I might just put a cross against whoever is top of the list other than UKIP.

coopster_the_1st

Pross wrote:

I think it's fair to say the Left always appear more politically active and certainly make more noise.

The shallow end of the pool is always the noisiest.

Stevo_666

FocusZing wrote:

What a surprise - a pic taken of Diane Abbott 20 mins before the interview that she was supposedly 'too ill' to attend...

mamba80

Stevo 666 wrote:

FocusZing wrote:

What a surprise - a pic taken of Diane Abbott 20 mins before the interview that she was supposedly 'too ill' to attend...

i think Abbott is suffering from some sort of mental health issue or rather that was the verdict of a Psychologist friend i met up with last night and no Stevo, it wasnt for treatment
so, staying out of stressful situations would be a good idea, perhaps Mays BFF Trump should do the same?

pblakeney

mamba80 wrote:

i think Abbott is suffering from some sort of mental health issue or rather that was the verdict of a Psychologist friend i met up with last night and no Stevo, it wasnt for treatment
so, staying out of stressful situations would be a good idea, perhaps Mays BFF Trump should do the same?

Strangely, I had the thought earlier that she is currently going through some kind of breakdown.
Means nothing though, me not being an expert.

tailwindhome

FocusZing

Jeremy Corbyn has said that the shadow home secretary, Diane Abbott, is to be replaced by the shadow policing minister “for the period of her ill health”.

Speaking on a campaigning visit to Glasgow, the Labour leader said that Abbott was still “not well”.

Labour said in a statement: “Jeremy Corbyn, leader of the Labour party, has asked Lyn Brown to stand in for Diane Abbott as shadow home secretary for the period of her ill health.”

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... orbyn-says

I feel a bit sorry for her really. When she used to be a regular on a political show "This Week" by Andrew Neil, she always came over well. I don't envy MPs when journalists are waiting on their every word.

FocusZing

mrfpb wrote:

Corbyn on Tyneside yesterday:



May and Ruth Davidson in Edinburgh (invited audience only)



Article here: http://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/jeremy-corbyn-fills-banks-tyne-theresa-may-cant-even-pack-small-room/05/06/

On the BBC news again that does seem to be the case, fifteen odd quiet people for May hundreds cheering for Corbyn.

Not sure if this will relate to votoes? Brexit and Trumps win, don't seem far away though.

bendertherobot

A Corbyn win would be a bigger result than Trump or Brexit IMO. And in many ways a very different type.

Corbyn's pulled bigger crowds on his jaunts than Trump's inauguration too.