snap general election?

mrfpb

But May's current issue is the Remainer wing of the party - she has had to rely on "opposition" support to get through every Brexit vote in the Commons so far due to Remainer rebels. Maybe she's hoping to bring in some more hard right Brexiteers.

rick_chasey

mrfpb wrote:

But May's current issue is the Remainer wing of the party - she has had to rely on "opposition" support to get through every Brexit vote in the Commons so far due to Remainer rebels. Maybe she's hoping to bring in some more hard right Brexiteers.

If she's picking up seats off labour, logic dictates those seats are likely to be Brexit seats, so figures the MPs those constituents will vote for will be Brexiters.

bendertherobot

I hadn't realised that the SNP garnered 50% of the vote in Scotland last time round. It's actually a shade under that, rounded up. Assuming the same turnout (yes, I know) they need only a few thousand people to make it an actual majority of the votes cast. That will be interesting to watch in terms of 'unity.' The closest SNP seat to losing requires a 5.75% swing and 7000 people to change sides. This is going to be a fascinating watch.

mrfpb

A good bit of analysis/opinion from John Curtice:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39630823

May will sell her "vision" of Brexit, Labour will stumble around looking for a firm line to take. May will look competent, even if her vision is unpalatable.

Stevo_666

mamba80 wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Smart move by May given that Labour is now in complete turmoil.

Mamba- if you're reading this I hope you haven't forgotten about our little bet. I'll be heading down the cash point and get the 50 quid out now

Gald your back and on form, hope all is going as well as it can be, all considered.

but you were against a GE when i suggested it back last year after she became PM... but tories and changing their position seems to be the norm lol!

yep our bet was for the 2020 GE (and JC still lab leader) but of course i m happy to move this to 2017... proceeds to our fav charities i believe, so good call, get down to the cash point!!!

You're on...

Stevo_666

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

They had a big cull to curb expenses after the big defeat and have a small budget.

If you're serious about them, a donation to them would go a long way to help.

Maybe they can increase their budget by going down to Ladbrokes and putting a bet on the Tories winning the election?

the limits of your stupidity are an unknown unknown

I have given up the herculean task of educating you and will let somebody else explain why that thought (joke?) does not work.

SC, given the odds on the Tories winning will be very very short it would have to be a huge bet to get a decent payback, so I suppose you have a point as to why it doesn't work. Ironically the Lib Dems don't have that sort of money...

OK - maybe it is me but I do not see how betting on the outcome of the election helps with your pre-election expenses.

Anyway will be interesting to see more detailed seat by seat analysis rather than blanket opinion polls. Could Labour go under 200? if not then a thumpin Tory majority will depend upon Lib Dems. To sideline the nutters we probably need a 50 seat majority so will be touch and go.

Well they could borrow to cover the bet...

I predict under 200 for Labour. I will be interested as well in the detail but given the utter inability of anyone to predict accurate election or referendum outcomes these days its anybody's guess exactly how the new parliament will look. Apart from the Labour collapse.

bendertherobot

Twitter never awfully clear about whether something is breaking or new but looks like the CPS has stepped up a gear with potentially 30 files being considered for charge. Saying they will decide by 8th June. Which is a tad late.

The decision for 8th June election with this coming does look slightly suspect. And if this gets a bit (more) traction could see some damage.

IF someone would exploit it.

OT, anyone seen that Farage bloke today?

mamba80

bendertherobot wrote:

Twitter never awfully clear about whether something is breaking or new but looks like the CPS has stepped up a gear with potentially 30 files being considered for charge. Saying they will decide by 8th June. Which is a tad late.

The decision for 8th June election with this coming does look slightly suspect. And if this gets a bit (more) traction could see some damage.

IF someone would exploit it.

OT, anyone seen that Farage bloke today?

Ch 4 news ran the same story... i guess Labour are also involved so wont make much of it? Amber Rudd said "we ll just pay the fine" thats all ok then!

Stevo, another £50 says Labour will get over the 200 mark... monies to the Stroke Association... if anyone else wishes to contribute?

Garry H

Great. SNP will lose some seats.

mrfpb

From South East local news . Reading Labour group say they are targeting Reading seats and have been on "an election footing for some time."

However they do not have candidates for the two seats they are targeting.

They have an 8 week selection process for an election that is 7 weeks away.

surrey_commuter

Stevo 666 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

They had a big cull to curb expenses after the big defeat and have a small budget.

If you're serious about them, a donation to them would go a long way to help.

Maybe they can increase their budget by going down to Ladbrokes and putting a bet on the Tories winning the election?

the limits of your stupidity are an unknown unknown

I have given up the herculean task of educating you and will let somebody else explain why that thought (joke?) does not work.

SC, given the odds on the Tories winning will be very very short it would have to be a huge bet to get a decent payback, so I suppose you have a point as to why it doesn't work. Ironically the Lib Dems don't have that sort of money...

OK - maybe it is me but I do not see how betting on the outcome of the election helps with your pre-election expenses.

Anyway will be interesting to see more detailed seat by seat analysis rather than blanket opinion polls. Could Labour go under 200? if not then a thumpin Tory majority will depend upon Lib Dems. To sideline the nutters we probably need a 50 seat majority so will be touch and go.

Well they could borrow to cover the bet...

I predict under 200 for Labour. I will be interested as well in the detail but given the utter inability of anyone to predict accurate election or referendum outcomes these days its anybody's guess exactly how the new parliament will look. Apart from the Labour collapse.

Whether 229 to 200 is a collapse is kind of my point. They are getting very close to their core vote so how much more can the Tories win? The key people will be the LibDems as they could seriously limit overall gains.

surrey_commuter

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

They had a big cull to curb expenses after the big defeat and have a small budget.

If you're serious about them, a donation to them would go a long way to help.

Maybe they can increase their budget by going down to Ladbrokes and putting a bet on the Tories winning the election?

the limits of your stupidity are an unknown unknown

I have given up the herculean task of educating you and will let somebody else explain why that thought (joke?) does not work.

Aw petal, you'll be one snowflake that I will enjoy watching melt on June 9th :P

I don't care one jot that the Lib Undemocrats are lacking funds for this election in the same way I don't care about UKIP.

Those rich enough to make a difference can now put their money where their mouth is or are we seeing what people really think about where staying in the EU ranks with the elite.

Or is their lack of funding showing which party they know they will be better off under? :P

Whilst you do not have the faculties to work out what will make me happy on June 8th there is no excuse for not Googling "snowflake"

mrfpb

I think any seat where UKIP came 2nd or 3rd needs close attention. If the election is fought on "Brexit" policy alone, UKIP may get quite a bit of support as a party by promising "to hold the governments feet to the fire" on Brexit negotiations. Add to that disillusioned Labour voters may simply stay at home, and let UKIP in.

surrey_commuter

Lookyhere wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Rick Chasey wrote:

They had a big cull to curb expenses after the big defeat and have a small budget.

If you're serious about them, a donation to them would go a long way to help.

Maybe they can increase their budget by going down to Ladbrokes and putting a bet on the Tories winning the election?

the limits of your stupidity are an unknown unknown

I have given up the herculean task of educating you and will let somebody else explain why that thought (joke?) does not work.

SC, given the odds on the Tories winning will be very very short it would have to be a huge bet to get a decent payback, so I suppose you have a point as to why it doesn't work. Ironically the Lib Dems don't have that sort of money...

OK - maybe it is me but I do not see how betting on the outcome of the election helps with your pre-election expenses.

Anyway will be interesting to see more detailed seat by seat analysis rather than blanket opinion polls. Could Labour go under 200? if not then a thumpin Tory majority will depend upon Lib Dems. To sideline the nutters we probably need a 50 seat majority so will be touch and go.

Surely though May has proven herself to be equal to any on the right of the party.
i do not see her as some sort of moderate at all, what crumbs has she thrown to the 48% or the moderates within the conservative party?

Of course, May being May she will bow to whatever way the wind blows so perhaps you ll be proven correct.

I think on law and order she is way to the right but far less so economically (e.g. Hammond)

No crumbs because she knows the nutters will drag her down. A bigger majority will sideline the nutters and lead to more rational behaviour towards Brexit.

Stevo_666

mamba80 wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

Twitter never awfully clear about whether something is breaking or new but looks like the CPS has stepped up a gear with potentially 30 files being considered for charge. Saying they will decide by 8th June. Which is a tad late.

The decision for 8th June election with this coming does look slightly suspect. And if this gets a bit (more) traction could see some damage.

IF someone would exploit it.

OT, anyone seen that Farage bloke today?

Ch 4 news ran the same story... i guess Labour are also involved so wont make much of it? Amber Rudd said "we ll just pay the fine" thats all ok then!

Stevo, another £50 says Labour will get over the 200 mark... monies to the Stroke Association... if anyone else wishes to contribute?

Accepted...good choice of charity, thanks mamba.

Just remind me, the original bet was the at the Tories would get an overall majority, right?

Stevo_666

Surrey Commuter wrote:

[A bigger majority will sideline the nutters and lead to more rational behaviour towards Brexit.

Bit harsh to talk about Labour like that when they're down

surrey_commuter

mrfpb wrote:

I think any seat where UKIP came 2nd or 3rd needs close attention. If the election is fought on "Brexit" policy alone, UKIP may get quite a bit of support as a party by promising "to hold the governments feet to the fire" on Brexit negotiations. Add to that disillusioned Labour voters may simply stay at home, and let UKIP in.

Most Brexiteers on here do not differentiate between the referendum and Brexit. Do you think the previous UKIP voters do, or will they think job done and stay st home (or return to previous voting patterns) ?

Why would TM turn it into referendum mark two? Surely she will want to make it all about economics and fitness to govern. Or put another way vote for me because I am not Corbyn or McConnell.

surrey_commuter

Stevo 666 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

[A bigger majority will sideline the nutters and lead to more rational behaviour towards Brexit.

Bit harsh to talk about Labour like that when they're down

I am not sure I could name more than a dozen of them. Half of their problem is that there is no obvious successor.

What would Tory success look like to you? I think with our electoral system 350 would be good.

coopster_the_1st

mrfpb wrote:

I think any seat where UKIP came 2nd or 3rd needs close attention. If the election is fought on "Brexit" policy alone, UKIP may get quite a bit of support as a party by promising "to hold the governments feet to the fire" on Brexit negotiations. Add to that disillusioned Labour voters may simply stay at home, and let UKIP in.

I agree. The stay at home labour voters is what could let UKIP in. A UKIP vote is a proxy Tory vote in a northern labour leave constituency.

In current Tory seats, the UKIP vote will move to the Tories thus nullifying those Tory voters voting Lib Dem.

London Labour is most interesting. Are they weak enough to let Lib Dem pick up a few of their seats?

mamba80

Stevo 666 wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

Twitter never awfully clear about whether something is breaking or new but looks like the CPS has stepped up a gear with potentially 30 files being considered for charge. Saying they will decide by 8th June. Which is a tad late.

The decision for 8th June election with this coming does look slightly suspect. And if this gets a bit (more) traction could see some damage.

IF someone would exploit it.

OT, anyone seen that Farage bloke today?

Ch 4 news ran the same story... i guess Labour are also involved so wont make much of it? Amber Rudd said "we ll just pay the fine" thats all ok then!

Stevo, another £50 says Labour will get over the 200 mark... monies to the Stroke Association... if anyone else wishes to contribute?

Accepted...good choice of charity, thanks mamba.

Just remind me, the original bet was the at the Tories would get an overall majority, right?

no worries, they gave me a lot of understanding into a condition i knew little about plus of course they help with research into prevention.

i think so, but given who its for, its a given... so yeah overall majority it is ! get ready to lose steve !!!! :shock: :shock:

kingstongraham

Lookyhere wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

Survival of the richest. Makes you proud.

Have you considered that this is an opportunity for may to jettison the batshit brexit wing of her party and have policies more in keeping with what she thought before last June?

Here's hoping. All I can do is vote for my MP in Richmond park. A general sense of Tories winning might even mean she keeps her seat, depending on who they put up against her.

We dont really know what she really thought pre june 2016, she said little and what she did say was probably on the lines of hedging her bets, as the opinion polls were a remain win.

I judge her on her actions and on her various speeches, to me she is as right wing as any within her party.

though of course i really hope you are right!!!

I thought she gave a really well thought out speech before the referendum, text is on conservative home website still, i think. If that Theresa comes back, there's hope.

Stevo_666

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

[A bigger majority will sideline the nutters and lead to more rational behaviour towards Brexit.

Bit harsh to talk about Labour like that when they're down

I am not sure I could name more than a dozen of them. Half of their problem is that there is no obvious successor.

What would Tory success look like to you? I think with our electoral system 350 would be good.

350 would be good given the system and circumstances - that means an overall majority in excess of 50. I would hope for 375, which is coincidentally the 'middle' result of Maggie Thatchers 3 election wins.

mamba80

Stevo 666 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

[A bigger majority will sideline the nutters and lead to more rational behaviour towards Brexit.

Bit harsh to talk about Labour like that when they're down

I am not sure I could name more than a dozen of them. Half of their problem is that there is no obvious successor.

What would Tory success look like to you? I think with our electoral system 350 would be good.

350 would be good given the system and circumstances - that means an overall majority in excess of 50. I would hope for 375, which is coincidentally the 'middle' result of Maggie Thatchers 3 election wins.

God alone can help us if that happens.

mr_goo

I went to a couple of hustings for New Forest West prior to the last Gen Elec. An attendee sitting next to me said that the Tories could put forward a dead dog in a blue wig and it would still win the seat. The best candidate was from Labour but was never going to ever get voted in. The trouble with the electorate is that they vote on national policies when they should be voting for the candidate that will best represent their district.

Stevo_666

mamba80 wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Stevo 666 wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

[A bigger majority will sideline the nutters and lead to more rational behaviour towards Brexit.

Bit harsh to talk about Labour like that when they're down

I am not sure I could name more than a dozen of them. Half of their problem is that there is no obvious successor.

What would Tory success look like to you? I think with our electoral system 350 would be good.

350 would be good given the system and circumstances - that means an overall majority in excess of 50. I would hope for 375, which is coincidentally the 'middle' result of Maggie Thatchers 3 election wins.

God alone can help us if that happens.

Unfortunately Mrs. T has been dead for some time now

mrfpb

Surrey Commuter wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

I think any seat where UKIP came 2nd or 3rd needs close attention. If the election is fought on "Brexit" policy alone, UKIP may get quite a bit of support as a party by promising "to hold the governments feet to the fire" on Brexit negotiations. Add to that disillusioned Labour voters may simply stay at home, and let UKIP in.

Most Brexiteers on here do not differentiate between the referendum and Brexit. Do you think the previous UKIP voters do, or will they think job done and stay st home (or return to previous voting patterns) ?

Why would TM turn it into referendum mark two? Surely she will want to make it all about economics and fitness to govern. Or put another way vote for me because I am not Corbyn or McConnell.

May said it was about Brexit on the steps of Downing St. UKIP will push for a hard Brexit and there are 14 million leave voters who have not voted for UKIP before. If the debate sways, say, 1 million to move to UKIP then that could give them a few seats, enough to hold the balance of power. That's where the margins are important.

I think Remainers on this board are being overoptomistic in dismissing UKIP (dangerously so) but also in assuming May is trying to sideline the Brexit nutters, it's the Remain nutters in the Tory party that are the threat to achieving the Brexit she wants.

So, Remainers, don't seek any solace from a May government. LibDems and SNP are the only parties that will represent you.

kingstongraham

mrfpb wrote:

I think Remainers on this board are being overoptomistic in dismissing UKIP (dangerously so) but also in assuming May is trying to sideline the Brexit nutters, it's the Remain nutters in the Tory party that are the threat to achieving the Brexit she wants.

So, Remainers, don't seek any solace from a May government. LibDems and SNP are the only parties that will represent you.

I don't think anyone is assuming anything about may. She has no views on brexit at all.

rjsterry

To put it mildly, a lot has happened since then. A matter of weeks ago she was swearing blind she wouldn't hold an early election. Will the real TM please stand up.

mrfpb: you may well be right, if that is the Brexit she wants. It's nigh impossible to tell what she actually believes and what she is saying to try and stop the two sides of her party turning on each other.

Anyway as a LD voter in a LD constituency, I have an easy choice.

Stevo_666

21 point lead over Labour according to a poll today. I reckon 375 is doable
http://www.ukpolitical.info/General_election_polls.htm

mamba80

mrfpb wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

mrfpb wrote:

I think any seat where UKIP came 2nd or 3rd needs close attention. If the election is fought on "Brexit" policy alone, UKIP may get quite a bit of support as a party by promising "to hold the governments feet to the fire" on Brexit negotiations. Add to that disillusioned Labour voters may simply stay at home, and let UKIP in.

Most Brexiteers on here do not differentiate between the referendum and Brexit. Do you think the previous UKIP voters do, or will they think job done and stay st home (or return to previous voting patterns) ?

Why would TM turn it into referendum mark two? Surely she will want to make it all about economics and fitness to govern. Or put another way vote for me because I am not Corbyn or McConnell.

May said it was about Brexit on the steps of Downing St. UKIP will push for a hard Brexit and there are 14 million leave voters who have not voted for UKIP before. If the debate sways, say, 1 million to move to UKIP then that could give them a few seats, enough to hold the balance of power. That's where the margins are important.

I think Remainers on this board are being overoptomistic in dismissing UKIP (dangerously so) but also in assuming May is trying to sideline the Brexit nutters, it's the Remain nutters in the Tory party that are the threat to achieving the Brexit she wants.

So, Remainers, don't seek any solace from a May government. LibDems and SNP are the only parties that will represent you.

yep, would nt normally agree with you but to me, TM is a hard line brexitier, she wants a bigger majority to pursue her vision of the UK (totally) out of Europe.
there is no solace in a TM government, only more sidelining and exclusion.