snap general election?

coopster_the_1st

Surrey Commuter wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

And to think, people had her down as a safe pair of hands. :roll:

the probe into election expenses may have forced her hand - presumably that will now go away

I agree the above is one of the reasons.

Additionally, once we have the GE those 2015 tax promises that DC & GO have tied her hands with are removed. I suspect the backlash to the last budget is the main reason in forcing this as TM/PH cannot wait another 3 years before raising taxes to increase spending

bendertherobot

The NI lot will be getting fed up of having elections.

Stevo_666

Smart move by May given that Labour is now in complete turmoil.

Mamba- if you're reading this I hope you haven't forgotten about our little bet. I'd head down the cash point and get the 50 quid out now if I were you

bianchimoon

Donald Tusk tweet re election

It was Hitchcock, who directed Brexit: first an earthquake and the tension rises.

It surely will

bianchimoon

hang on just remembered French/german elections coming up, talk about feeling left out!

bendertherobot

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

And to think, people had her down as a safe pair of hands. :roll:

the probe into election expenses may have forced her hand - presumably that will now go away

I agree the above is one of the reasons.

Additionally, once we have the GE those 2015 tax promises that DC & GO have tied her hands with are removed. I suspect the backlash to the last budget is the main reason in forcing this as TM/PH cannot wait another 3 years before raising taxes to increase spending

Fair points. Those manifestos are going to have to be written fairly sharpish mind.

bendertherobot

Maidenhead is an interesting seat. 45% leave.

rjsterry

bendertherobot wrote:

Maidenhead is an interesting seat. 45% leave.

Dare to dream?

Pross

Takes away Sturgeon's (and anyone else's) key argument that she's not mandated to do the job. With the opposition in such a pitiful state she'd have been stupid not to do this and I'm surprised no-one seemed to be expecting it. The only way she can lose if if she actually loses her seat. If she wins the election she can push through what she wants and no-one can say she lacks the authority, if she loses someone else inherits the mess.

pinno

Perhaps she's bidding for all out dictatorship.
Maybe she's quietly thinking of a cabinet made up of different individuals to negotiate Brexit.

bianchimoon

Pross wrote:

Takes away Sturgeon's (and anyone else's) key argument that she's not mandated to do the job. With the opposition in such a pitiful state she'd have been stupid not to do this and I'm surprised no-one seemed to be expecting it. The only way she can lose if if she actually loses her seat. If she wins the election she can push through what she wants and no-one can say she lacks the authority, if she loses someone else inherits the mess.

given the way elections have been going, there must be some surprises unforeseen events in the pipeline. Question is post referendum have more people realised they've been played by Gove/Johnson/Fox/Farage/UKiP generally and will they react?

rjsterry

The sad thing is that even if there were some Lab/LD landslide, the country would still be as divided as before. Both sides of the Brexit debate would be even more polarised. The idea that a GE will fix anything is just ludicrous.

rjsterry

Pinno wrote:

Perhaps she's bidding for all out dictatorship.
Maybe she's quietly thinking of a cabinet made up of different individuals to negotiate Brexit.

Seen what's happened in Turkey and got ideas?

bendertherobot

bianchimoon wrote:

Pross wrote:

Takes away Sturgeon's (and anyone else's) key argument that she's not mandated to do the job. With the opposition in such a pitiful state she'd have been stupid not to do this and I'm surprised no-one seemed to be expecting it. The only way she can lose if if she actually loses her seat. If she wins the election she can push through what she wants and no-one can say she lacks the authority, if she loses someone else inherits the mess.

given the way elections have been going, there must be some surprises unforeseen events in the pipeline. Question is post referendum have more people realised they've been played by Gove/Johnson/Fox/Farage/UKiP generally and will they react?

And therein the issue. They have a majority, it's enough. And, if it isn't, that surely says something about the plan/policy/legislation.

They gain 100 seats, there is still an opposition, it can still say something. They gain nothing, she's wasted 2 months of Brexiting.

FWIW, I think they'll gain, I think the LD's might, Lab won't, UKIP? Who knows.

Ultimately, if the Cons have a slim but better majority, is that any more of a mandate?

RichN95.

bendertherobot wrote:

Maidenhead is an interesting seat. 45% leave.

No chance. In 2015 it had the fourth biggest majority in the whole UK

briantrumpet

Given that Labour have forgotten what oppositions are supposed to do, their losing lots of seats won't make much difference to the Tories' ability to push stuff through.

Ironically, in the longer term, if it gives the Libdems a significant boost (through what will, in effect, be a single-issue election), and brings Labour to its senses (i.e. reforming themselves as a party that appeals to the genral electorate, and not just the paid-up members), the hope is that there will be a more effective opposition to test the government's actions. Labour's been opposition in name only, and have prevented a more effective opposition doing the job that is required in any healthy democracy.

coopster_the_1st

At least we only have 8 weeks of this one... :?

The remoaning snowflakes must be twisted in knots at the moment

If the EU referendum was based on constiuencies it would have been 400+ to leave.

bianchimoon

Veronese68 wrote:

KingstonGraham wrote:

Is the country becoming united while Westminster isn't? The reverse, I'd have said.

Not sure about Westminster but I think saying the country is united is utterly delusional. Unfortunately with the lack of opposition the ballot boxes might lead her to believe it is.

just seen this speech, you've hit the nail on the head, delusional or wishful thinking, she makes out the whole of government is disunited and at odds and only the people have the power to give her the mandate to hard brexit when the time comes

RichN95.

briantrumpet wrote:

Given that Labour have forgotten what oppositions are supposed to do, their losing lots of seats won't make much difference to the Tories' ability to push stuff through.

It will make a difference to what they push through though. May's primary opposition comes from within her own party. I think that she has realised that any vaguely workable Brexit is undeliverable while the number of intransigent super-hard Brexiteers in her party outnumber her majority.

kingstongraham

Pross wrote:

Takes away Sturgeon's (and anyone else's) key argument that she's not mandated to do the job. With the opposition in such a pitiful state she'd have been stupid not to do this and I'm surprised no-one seemed to be expecting it. The only way she can lose if if she actually loses her seat. If she wins the election she can push through what she wants and no-one can say she lacks the authority, if she loses someone else inherits the mess.

The only reason for not thinking she was going to do it was her repeated insistence that she wasn't going to do it.

briantrumpet

RichN95 wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Given that Labour have forgotten what oppositions are supposed to do, their losing lots of seats won't make much difference to the Tories' ability to push stuff through.

It will make a difference to what they push through though. May's primary opposition comes from within her own party. I think that she has realised that any vaguely workable Brexit is undeliverable while the number of intransigent super-hard Brexiteers in her party outnumber her majority.

It'll certainly alter the dynamic, both within the Tories, and within parliament.

A vaguely interesting take here, given that Lynton Crosby has just been hired as the Tories' election guru: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk ... -democrats

pinno

rjsterry wrote:

Pinno wrote:

Perhaps she's bidding for all out dictatorship.
Maybe she's quietly thinking of a cabinet made up of different individuals to negotiate Brexit.

Seen what's happened in Turkey and got ideas?

Bender said it:

bendertherobot wrote:

Erdogan

kingstongraham

Coopster the 1st wrote:

At least we only have 8 weeks of this one... :?

The remoaning snowflakes must be twisted in knots at the moment

If the EU referendum was based on constiuencies it would have been 400+ to leave.

I don't see why. They know who to vote for (unless any sitting Labour/Conservative MPs say they will vote the way they said was best for the country before the referendum). And maybe they might actually vote this time.

I'm sure it's a coincidence that the vote is on the day before the last day of university.

coopster_the_1st

KingstonGraham wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

At least we only have 8 weeks of this one... :?

The remoaning snowflakes must be twisted in knots at the moment

If the EU referendum was based on constiuencies it would have been 400+ to leave.

I don't see why. They know who to vote for (unless any sitting Labour/Conservative MPs say they will vote the way they said was best for the country before the referendum). And maybe they might actually vote this time.

I'm sure it's a coincidence that the vote is on the day before the last day of university.

Surely that date will benefit the Lib Dems as the students will not be voting for labour (tuitions fees is still Lib Dems fault)

So all those rich and wealthy conservative voters will now vote Lib Dem? Sure some of those that are still bitter (see Richmond by election but that was a one-off protest vote), but not a chance enough will to threaten most of the conservative seats especially as a large number of UKIP will vote tactically and vote conservative thus strengthening that vote.

Current Labour constituencies are interesting. Labour leave voters will stick with labour or vote UKIP, Labour remain voters will vote Lib Dem but the conservative vote will stay with them in those consituencies(a number will switch to Lib Dem) thus splitting the vote across 4 parties.

I can see London turning yellow from Red but that can only be a good thing

kingstongraham

And the Conservatives will take it as approval of all the other crap in their manifesto.

They'll get that tax rise back in soon enough then.

milton50

briantrumpet wrote:

RichN95 wrote:

briantrumpet wrote:

Given that Labour have forgotten what oppositions are supposed to do, their losing lots of seats won't make much difference to the Tories' ability to push stuff through.

It will make a difference to what they push through though. May's primary opposition comes from within her own party. I think that she has realised that any vaguely workable Brexit is undeliverable while the number of intransigent super-hard Brexiteers in her party outnumber her majority.

A vaguely interesting take here, given that Lynton Crosby has just been hired as the Tories' election guru: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk ... -democrats

Yep, I can definitely see the Lib Dems taking seats off Conservative and Labour across the South.

pinno

Maybe she'll get rid of Boris. After all, he was given a Plebiscite.

bendertherobot

Pinno wrote:

rjsterry wrote:

Pinno wrote:

Perhaps she's bidding for all out dictatorship.
Maybe she's quietly thinking of a cabinet made up of different individuals to negotiate Brexit.

Seen what's happened in Turkey and got ideas?

Bender said it:

bendertherobot wrote:

Erdogan

Apparently I was trolling.

bendertherobot

RichN95 wrote:

bendertherobot wrote:

Maidenhead is an interesting seat. 45% leave.

No chance. In 2015 it had the fourth biggest majority in the whole UK

I merely said interesting. She won't lose it. But it could be interesting watching some hustings.

Pross

bendertherobot wrote:

bianchimoon wrote:

Pross wrote:

Takes away Sturgeon's (and anyone else's) key argument that she's not mandated to do the job. With the opposition in such a pitiful state she'd have been stupid not to do this and I'm surprised no-one seemed to be expecting it. The only way she can lose if if she actually loses her seat. If she wins the election she can push through what she wants and no-one can say she lacks the authority, if she loses someone else inherits the mess.

given the way elections have been going, there must be some surprises unforeseen events in the pipeline. Question is post referendum have more people realised they've been played by Gove/Johnson/Fox/Farage/UKiP generally and will they react?

And therein the issue. They have a majority, it's enough. And, if it isn't, that surely says something about the plan/policy/legislation.

They gain 100 seats, there is still an opposition, it can still say something. They gain nothing, she's wasted 2 months of Brexiting.

FWIW, I think they'll gain, I think the LD's might, Lab won't, UKIP? Who knows.

Ultimately, if the Cons have a slim but better majority, is that any more of a mandate?

The thing is, when a PM changes mid term the opposition parties always go down the 'unelected leader' route even though they know PM isn't a position decided by the electorate so why not take advantage of a leaderless opposition to take that argument of legitimacy away before making some of the biggest political decisions the country has faced in a generation? Personally I'll be changing from my normal voting habits in this one. Actually, it will be interesting to see what happens in my constituency - it has been solidly Labour as long as I can remember but it's not one of their strongest seats.