Poo tin... Put@in...

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  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    $800 million weapons and kit on its way to Ukraine. Meanwhile Putin has had to buy a van load of freezing Syrians to help him out.
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 52,275
    Good work ^.
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • bikes_and_dogs
    bikes_and_dogs Posts: 130
    edited March 2022
    I enjoy a game of Texas Hold-em.
    Putin strikes me as a man that is pot committed. He' made a big move that makes it hard for him to fold.
    His problem is that he has been widely called.
    The big stack (China) has folded and is sitting on the sidelines watching their opponents face off, and who can argue with that?
    If anyone raises Putin he will surely call - He dreams that he will be a hero, but if he's wrong he will still be a billionaire.
    Check it down to the river and watch his crippled stack fall apart on future hands.
  • briantrumpet
    briantrumpet Posts: 20,271
    A bit of a discussion about how the Ukrainians are cleverly using imaging drones for taking stuff out, and how it might be changing the way this is going: Russians seem to be bamboozled by how this works. The Ukrainians seem very nimble.

    https://www.facebook.com/unanglaisendiois
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 52,275
    To a degree, NATO is already fighting a war by proxy.
    However, if they (we) provide enough weaponry, the Russians will get worn down and eventually have to capitulate.
    That would be a lengthy game which would be in the West's interest but would cost a lot of lives.
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    Probably naive optimism on my part but I'm not sure this will run on and on. If the Russians are being decimated by modern armaments, their will will rapidly disintegrate.
    When we compare it to the likes of Vietnam and Afghanistan, it rages so long as the more powerful nation only gradually learns that military might does not trump the determination to defend your home. It seems to be that the Russians don't even have military might on their side. Ukraine is being well supported by modern weaponry that the Russians simply don't have an answer for. Hence the barbaric tactics.
    They're still going to do a lot of damage but I don't see this running on for years or even months. It's all eyes on the exit strategy. May need a few more failed tactics yet but hopefully the penny is dropping.
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 52,275
    Maybe Putin will cease before the thin veil of Russian military might is shattered.
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • imposter2.0
    imposter2.0 Posts: 12,028
    pinno said:

    Maybe Putin will cease before the thin veil of Russian military might is shattered.

    It's a bit late for that...

  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,094
    I could see a peace deal happening - I think so long as Ukraine still fears possible annexation and Russia fears defeat (of some sort) they both have a reason to compromise.

    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    morstar said:

    They're still going to do a lot of damage but I don't see this running on for years or even months. It's all eyes on the exit strategy. May need a few more failed tactics yet but hopefully the penny is dropping.

    I think you’re right.

  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,722
    The war is over................or rather you might think that, upon viewing the BBC news homepage this morning.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    pinno said:

    To a degree, NATO is already fighting a war by proxy.
    However, if they (we) provide enough weaponry, the Russians will get worn down and eventually have to capitulate.
    That would be a lengthy game which would be in the West's interest but would cost a lot of lives.

    No, this is a proxy war.

    Agree it will b long as we are eight years in and probably not half way.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    In
    morstar said:

    Probably naive optimism on my part but I'm not sure this will run on and on. If the Russians are being decimated by modern armaments, their will will rapidly disintegrate.
    When we compare it to the likes of Vietnam and Afghanistan, it rages so long as the more powerful nation only gradually learns that military might does not trump the determination to defend your home. It seems to be that the Russians don't even have military might on their side. Ukraine is being well supported by modern weaponry that the Russians simply don't have an answer for. Hence the barbaric tactics.
    They're still going to do a lot of damage but I don't see this running on for years or even months. It's all eyes on the exit strategy. May need a few more failed tactics yet but hopefully the penny is dropping.

    both of your examples they knew they could not win but could see no way (politically) out.

    I admire your optimism that within weeks this will be over.

    I think it more likely the country will be divided down the Dnieper and this will go on for decades
  • morstar
    morstar Posts: 6,190
    Will it run for decades? I think if there is a genuine wideheld belief in Russia that they are aggrieved, yes, I can see how it could do.

    I don’t believe that’s the case though. This is a situation engineered by a despot.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,094
    A land corridor to Crimea joining up with the Donbas and incorporating Meilitopol and Mariupol (sp?) would make sense from a Russian pov.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    Russia has unsustainable attrition levels now. It's not the massive superpower it used to be, churning out weapons by the minute. At some point they need to put the breaks on. As I've said previously, they'll be hurting from the sanctions soon and that measly $60 billion a year defence budget will be wheezing from the sanctions. They've just lost out to a big deal to supply fighter jets to Egypt. Egypt have said 'nah' to the Su-35 and asked the US to give them F-15s. As I mentioned in another post - Russia needs these crucial sales so it can build it's own fleet of jets.

    https://www.janes.com/defence-news/news-detail/us-to-supply-f-15s-to-egypt
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited March 2022
    surrey_commuter said:

    pinno said:

    To a degree, NATO is already fighting a war by proxy.
    However, if they (we) provide enough weaponry, the Russians will get worn down and eventually have to capitulate.
    That would be a lengthy game which would be in the West's interest but would cost a lot of lives.

    No, this is a proxy war.

    Agree it will b long as we are eight years in and probably not half way.

    I'm a bit sceptical of this 'great power' narrative that this is a proxy war between two great powers.

    I don't think it is. I think it is a spillover from Russia's failed attempt to rid itself of tyranny post-soviet collapse, and the fact Ukraine has carved itself out a proper national identity.

    Not least that Russia is not a great power. It's spending on the military is roughly the same as the UK.
    _
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    pinno said:

    To a degree, NATO is already fighting a war by proxy.
    However, if they (we) provide enough weaponry, the Russians will get worn down and eventually have to capitulate.
    That would be a lengthy game which would be in the West's interest but would cost a lot of lives.

    No, this is a proxy war.

    Agree it will b long as we are eight years in and probably not half way.

    I'm a bit sceptical of this 'great power' narrative that this is a proxy war between two great powers.

    I don't think it is. I think it is a spillover from Russia's failed attempt to rid itself of tyranny post-soviet collapse, and the fact Ukraine has carved itself out a proper national identity.

    Not least that Russia is not a great power. It's spending on the military is roughly the same as the UK.
    Russians only great power is that it has a large and significantly easy to manipulate population with a high tolerance for losing cannon fodder that other nations would deem intolerable. They are an embarrassment of a country. For sure they are a dangerous country to fully let loose into the North Korea model but you can't say the EU and US has not tried to normalise the country over the last two decades.

    I mean I have to laugh at the stupidity of Syrians sitting on the sidelines of this thinking yeah this is the war to get in on with Russia. Self preservation is not going to be their string point me thinks.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    You need to see the Russian involvement in Syria as Putin helping a fellow dictator stay in power.

    Same with Lutashekno. Remember not so long ago there were massive protests and there was a threat he would be overthrown? Not long after a bunch of Russian paratroopers dropped in and killed a bunch of people, seemed to quiet them down.

    Assad is just returning the favour. With someone else's blood, obviously.
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Same with with Modi and the Indian assistance.

    Tyrants stick together. That's why Trump liked them all. He wants to be like them.
    _
  • imposter2.0
    imposter2.0 Posts: 12,028
    rick_chasey said:

    Same with with Modi and the Indian assistance.

    Tyrants stick together. That's why Trump liked them all. He wants to be like them.

    He IS like them. He just screwed up his chance at a coup d'etat...
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    imposter2.0 said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Same with with Modi and the Indian assistance.

    Tyrants stick together. That's why Trump liked them all. He wants to be like them.

    He IS like them. He just screwed up his chance at a coup d'etat...
    He'll sort it out in round two.

    You think a guy who gets re-elected after staging a coup is gonna keep the democracy intact?
    _
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,722
    rick_chasey said:

    Same with with Modi and the Indian assistance.

    Tyrants stick together. That's why Trump liked them all. He wants to be like them.

    They are all members of the same bully boys club.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    pinno said:

    To a degree, NATO is already fighting a war by proxy.
    However, if they (we) provide enough weaponry, the Russians will get worn down and eventually have to capitulate.
    That would be a lengthy game which would be in the West's interest but would cost a lot of lives.

    No, this is a proxy war.

    Agree it will b long as we are eight years in and probably not half way.

    I'm a bit sceptical of this 'great power' narrative that this is a proxy war between two great powers.

    I don't think it is. I think it is a spillover from Russia's failed attempt to rid itself of tyranny post-soviet collapse, and the fact Ukraine has carved itself out a proper national identity.

    Not least that Russia is not a great power. It's spending on the military is roughly the same as the UK.
    maybe we are disagreeing with what a proxy war is but to me the West is using Ukraine to fight a proxy war with Russia.
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    Pentagon saying they estimate Russia now has approx. 28,000 killed or wounded. It's in the Daily Reich so it must be true*.




    *I wouldn't be surprised if it was a fairly accurate figure.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    morstar said:

    Will it run for decades? I think if there is a genuine wideheld belief in Russia that they are aggrieved, yes, I can see how it could do.

    I don’t believe that’s the case though. This is a situation engineered by a despot.

    Well the Russo-Ukraine War has been running for 8 years already so I guess you have to ask what the "end" looks like.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    edited March 2022
    thegreatdivide said:

    Pentagon saying they estimate Russia now has approx. 28,000 killed or wounded. It's in the Daily Reich so it must be true*.




    *I wouldn't be surprised if it was a fairly accurate figure.

    Isn't Ukraine attritioning at a similar proportional rate (just lower numbers to begin with) ?

    It feels like there's *a lot* of heavy fighting all the time.
    _
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,507
    rick_chasey said:

    thegreatdivide said:

    Pentagon saying they estimate Russia now has approx. 28,000 killed or wounded. It's in the Daily Reich so it must be true*.




    *I wouldn't be surprised if it was a fairly accurate figure.

    Isn't Ukraine attritioning at a similar proportional rate (just lower numbers to begin with) ?

    It feels like there's *a lot* of heavy fighting all the time.
    No, the last figures I saw were roughly a 4:1 ratio of losses.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 52,275
    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    pinno said:

    To a degree, NATO is already fighting a war by proxy.
    However, if they (we) provide enough weaponry, the Russians will get worn down and eventually have to capitulate.
    That would be a lengthy game which would be in the West's interest but would cost a lot of lives.

    No, this is a proxy war.

    Agree it will b long as we are eight years in and probably not half way.

    I'm a bit sceptical of this 'great power' narrative that this is a proxy war between two great powers.

    I don't think it is. I think it is a spillover from Russia's failed attempt to rid itself of tyranny post-soviet collapse, and the fact Ukraine has carved itself out a proper national identity.

    Not least that Russia is not a great power. It's spending on the military is roughly the same as the UK.
    maybe we are disagreeing with what a proxy war is but to me the West is using Ukraine to fight a proxy war with Russia.
    This ^.
    It's what I said.
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • imposter2.0
    imposter2.0 Posts: 12,028
    rick_chasey said:

    imposter2.0 said:

    rick_chasey said:

    Same with with Modi and the Indian assistance.

    Tyrants stick together. That's why Trump liked them all. He wants to be like them.

    He IS like them. He just screwed up his chance at a coup d'etat...
    He'll sort it out in round two.

    You think a guy who gets re-elected after staging a coup is gonna keep the democracy intact?
    He has to be re-elected first. To do that, he has to run. And in order to run, he has to not be indicted on criminal charges, which I suspect are on the way...

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