Poo tin... Put@in...
Comments
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rick_chasey said:
https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
This is quite a prescient article from 2021.
The website seems quite informed. Podcast from yesterday seems to conclude the war is basically still in the balance, Russia has had a terrible start (but this is nothing new - this is apparently quite common in other wars they have had), Ukrainian morale is high (but has yet to experience a big defeat), but the Russians are still making progress and will likely flatten Kyiv given prior behaviour and their movements to en or lead Kyiv point to that too.
Not enormously ground breaking.
The article about however explains the supply issues and goes a long way to explain the pause the Russians have had the last couple days - they’re basically re stocking.
Podcaster also makes the point that there is a danger of making the same German 1939-1940 mistake about assuming the Russian army was a paper tiger given their abject failure in Finland.
Regarding the long convoy that’s gone nowhere in the past few days, I wonder how many Javelins and NLAWs the Ukrainians have left. Hitting the supply vehicles is the weak spot and appears to have been a successful strategy so far, but ideally they’re also going to be wanting to pick off a few T90’s every day. If the Russian tankies are sat still for days on end, getting bored and cold, and then their mate in the next tank gets hit out of nowhere it isn’t going to help their morale one bit.0 -
They have a much better understanding of the power structures than we do.Jezyboy said:
Do the Kremlinologists have a good record on predictions?rick_chasey said:
All the Kremlinologists (fwiw) seem to think if it’s a coup it’ll only be more hardline.Jezyboy said:
Yea, I assume we're some way off a deal that is agreeable to both parties.First.Aspect said:
I read he wants a ground route to Crimea.TheBigBean said:Isn't the solution likely to be that Russia gets Crimea, Ukraine promises not to join NATO for a period of time and Russia pays reparations in some form e.g. high rent on nord stream. Putin then celebrates his greatness whilst knowing he lost.
i.e. Dnipro, Maruipol, Donetsk, Krasnadar.
Oh, and disarmament and neutrality.
No doubt he wants an apology and compensation from Biden also.
Is it possible that Putin just gets delt with by some Russians who feel they are better served by not being a pariah state.
It would have to be revolutionary which seems a long way off and the wargamaing analysis suggests he’d use nukes before then (unless he wins of course)
The summary is he’s surrounded himself with hardliners and they are hooked to the ship.
The rest he is very isolated from, so they have little chance of getting at him, or building a power base.
So if it’s gonna be one it’s gonna be a hardliners who’s worried he’s gonna go down with the ship.0 -
Disinflation - bit easier on the acceleratorMattFalle said:
mec, i stick needles in people and shoot things.TheBigBean said:
One is relative the other is absolute. Deflation involves negative inflation. Disinflationary is less inflation than otherwise would be the case.rick_chasey said:
Honest Q I don’t know the difference between disinflationary and deflationaryTheBigBean said:
And eventually. Other than that, a good summary.surrey_commuter said:
The source you quote is saying disinflationary not deflationaryrick_chasey said:I follow a lot of economists on Twitter and all of them are declaring “oil price shocks are deflationary” FYI
Eg.
can you dumb this down please?
Deflation - stick er in reverse
I think“New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!0 -
If it comes to that I'll get the fireplace up and running again and burn some wood.rjsterry said:
If we see a huge black plume over NW Kent, we'll know you've had to resort to burning what you can find.Stevo_666 said:
I know I said we have oil fired CH - it's actually kerosene. Hey ho.briantrumpet said:shirley_basso said:
All except agri, rail, non-commercial heating.MattFalle said:
which sectors?shirley_basso said:Ending for some sectors from 1st April. Will drive £1.5bn to the treasury P.A, apparently.
@Stevo_666
"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
my kinda language - thankyou!tailwindhome said:
Disinflation - bit easier on the acceleratorMattFalle said:
mec, i stick needles in people and shoot things.TheBigBean said:
One is relative the other is absolute. Deflation involves negative inflation. Disinflationary is less inflation than otherwise would be the case.rick_chasey said:
Honest Q I don’t know the difference between disinflationary and deflationaryTheBigBean said:
And eventually. Other than that, a good summary.surrey_commuter said:
The source you quote is saying disinflationary not deflationaryrick_chasey said:I follow a lot of economists on Twitter and all of them are declaring “oil price shocks are deflationary” FYI
Eg.
can you dumb this down please?
Deflation - stick er in reverse
I think.The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
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I would guess they still have a decent supply, having read this.kingstonian said:rick_chasey said:https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
This is quite a prescient article from 2021.
The website seems quite informed. Podcast from yesterday seems to conclude the war is basically still in the balance, Russia has had a terrible start (but this is nothing new - this is apparently quite common in other wars they have had), Ukrainian morale is high (but has yet to experience a big defeat), but the Russians are still making progress and will likely flatten Kyiv given prior behaviour and their movements to en or lead Kyiv point to that too.
Not enormously ground breaking.
The article about however explains the supply issues and goes a long way to explain the pause the Russians have had the last couple days - they’re basically re stocking.
Podcaster also makes the point that there is a danger of making the same German 1939-1940 mistake about assuming the Russian army was a paper tiger given their abject failure in Finland.
Regarding the long convoy that’s gone nowhere in the past few days, I wonder how many Javelins and NLAWs the Ukrainians have left. Hitting the supply vehicles is the weak spot and appears to have been a successful strategy so far, but ideally they’re also going to be wanting to pick off a few T90’s every day. If the Russian tankies are sat still for days on end, getting bored and cold, and then their mate in the next tank gets hit out of nowhere it isn’t going to help their morale one bit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60655349"Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.0 -
I would have thought that there was a powerful group of oligarchs who were collectively peeved by Putins actions. Admittedly that's guesswork, but it's got to be annoying for daddy Mazzaspin and the like.rick_chasey said:
They have a much better understanding of the power structures than we do.Jezyboy said:
Do the Kremlinologists have a good record on predictions?rick_chasey said:
All the Kremlinologists (fwiw) seem to think if it’s a coup it’ll only be more hardline.Jezyboy said:
Yea, I assume we're some way off a deal that is agreeable to both parties.First.Aspect said:
I read he wants a ground route to Crimea.TheBigBean said:Isn't the solution likely to be that Russia gets Crimea, Ukraine promises not to join NATO for a period of time and Russia pays reparations in some form e.g. high rent on nord stream. Putin then celebrates his greatness whilst knowing he lost.
i.e. Dnipro, Maruipol, Donetsk, Krasnadar.
Oh, and disarmament and neutrality.
No doubt he wants an apology and compensation from Biden also.
Is it possible that Putin just gets delt with by some Russians who feel they are better served by not being a pariah state.
It would have to be revolutionary which seems a long way off and the wargamaing analysis suggests he’d use nukes before then (unless he wins of course)
The summary is he’s surrounded himself with hardliners and they are hooked to the ship.
The rest he is very isolated from, so they have little chance of getting at him, or building a power base.
So if it’s gonna be one it’s gonna be a hardliners who’s worried he’s gonna go down with the ship.0 -
blazing_saddles said:
I would guess they still have a decent supply, having read this.kingstonian said:rick_chasey said:https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/
This is quite a prescient article from 2021.
The website seems quite informed. Podcast from yesterday seems to conclude the war is basically still in the balance, Russia has had a terrible start (but this is nothing new - this is apparently quite common in other wars they have had), Ukrainian morale is high (but has yet to experience a big defeat), but the Russians are still making progress and will likely flatten Kyiv given prior behaviour and their movements to en or lead Kyiv point to that too.
Not enormously ground breaking.
The article about however explains the supply issues and goes a long way to explain the pause the Russians have had the last couple days - they’re basically re stocking.
Podcaster also makes the point that there is a danger of making the same German 1939-1940 mistake about assuming the Russian army was a paper tiger given their abject failure in Finland.
Regarding the long convoy that’s gone nowhere in the past few days, I wonder how many Javelins and NLAWs the Ukrainians have left. Hitting the supply vehicles is the weak spot and appears to have been a successful strategy so far, but ideally they’re also going to be wanting to pick off a few T90’s every day. If the Russian tankies are sat still for days on end, getting bored and cold, and then their mate in the next tank gets hit out of nowhere it isn’t going to help their morale one bit.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-60655349
Interesting, thanks. They can make an almighty mess with that number.0 -
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Jezyboy said:
Fortunately this chancer is no longer a Labour MP.
Literally lived across the road from me until last Spring . He's got a private registration plate - forget what it is but relates to the USSR - something like L3NIN (don't think it is that but in that vein).[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]0 -
He’s welcome to zip off and live in Russia at any time.DeVlaeminck said:Jezyboy said:
Fortunately this chancer is no longer a Labour MP.
Literally lived across the road from me until last Spring . He's got a private registration plate - forget what it is but relates to the USSR - something like L3NIN (don't think it is that but in that vein).0 -
Seems the US have got cold feet about the aircraft swap. Nobody wants to be the person that actually hands them over. Perhaps they could leave them unattended at the airfield with the keys in the ignition while they pop in to get a coffee.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition1 -
It seems Poland didn't warn the USA they were going to propose/announce it. Weird.rjsterry said:Seems the US have got cold feet about the aircraft swap. Nobody wants to be the person that actually hands them over. Perhaps they could leave them unattended at the airfield with the keys in the ignition while they pop in to get a coffee.
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Not watched Question Time for years, but here's a clip of Konstantin Kisin (Russian born comedian and writer apparently) giving his insight. Perhaps not what people want to hear.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DXwlqoSF70&ab_channel=Triggernometry 0 -
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Hard to argue against too.joe2019 said:The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.1 -
From 0:40 - it is all Kisin's answers clipped from the programme and the context to them.rick_chasey said:When in the clip, it's 14 minutes?
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I often think those in Scotland that argue they don't need a Nuclear deterrent or a decent Army are really just trying to save a few bob whilst thinking the English will come to their defence if anything happened. For sure its a strategy but if they can't agree fundamental things like this with the UK then good luck to them and this is me saying this as a Scot.0
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US DoD report saying Putin hasn't called in reserves from other parts of Russia. So it seems to be the original invasion force and that's your lot at the moment.0
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From the sounds of things an amateur radio hobbyist would be able to pick up on that intel, too.
Worrying question : does he send in ICBMs when the people run out?0 -
Not going to be able to watch it until this evening. However it's hard to take your points seriously when you post stuff from channels called "Trigger nometry" or "Meme the left".ballysmate said:Not watched Question Time for years, but here's a clip of Konstantin Kisin (Russian born comedian and writer apparently) giving his insight. Perhaps not what people want to hear.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DXwlqoSF70&ab_channel=Triggernometry- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
Whilst you might not like the name there are a lot of interesting guests go on Trigger Nometry so it is worth a watch much in the same way Joe Rogan when he has a good guest on is worth a watch. I would not class it as left wing particularly in the case of Constantin.pangolin said:
Not going to be able to watch it until this evening. However it's hard to take your points seriously when you post stuff from channels called "Trigger nometry" or "Meme the left".ballysmate said:Not watched Question Time for years, but here's a clip of Konstantin Kisin (Russian born comedian and writer apparently) giving his insight. Perhaps not what people want to hear.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DXwlqoSF70&ab_channel=Triggernometry1 -
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ruddy drafts
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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/sanctions-vladimir-putin-kremlin-russian-oligarchyrick_chasey said:
They have a much better understanding of the power structures than we do.Jezyboy said:
Do the Kremlinologists have a good record on predictions?rick_chasey said:
All the Kremlinologists (fwiw) seem to think if it’s a coup it’ll only be more hardline.Jezyboy said:
Yea, I assume we're some way off a deal that is agreeable to both parties.First.Aspect said:
I read he wants a ground route to Crimea.TheBigBean said:Isn't the solution likely to be that Russia gets Crimea, Ukraine promises not to join NATO for a period of time and Russia pays reparations in some form e.g. high rent on nord stream. Putin then celebrates his greatness whilst knowing he lost.
i.e. Dnipro, Maruipol, Donetsk, Krasnadar.
Oh, and disarmament and neutrality.
No doubt he wants an apology and compensation from Biden also.
Is it possible that Putin just gets delt with by some Russians who feel they are better served by not being a pariah state.
It would have to be revolutionary which seems a long way off and the wargamaing analysis suggests he’d use nukes before then (unless he wins of course)
The summary is he’s surrounded himself with hardliners and they are hooked to the ship.
The rest he is very isolated from, so they have little chance of getting at him, or building a power base.
So if it’s gonna be one it’s gonna be a hardliners who’s worried he’s gonna go down with the ship.
So the TLDR is the rich oligarchs we see have surprisingly little power.0 -
Not been on here for about 3 or 4 years, no idea who "Nick" is but i do vaguely remember MM but what is very noticeable is that there are no new posters..... just the same old.. even Coopster has gone!imposter2.0 said:
It's milemuncher again - just ignore him.MattFalle said:
no.AndyG785 said:Stunning argument being made on BR Mr Fail - Ukraine has no shortage of people willing to fight but they don't have the equipment, so you supply the anti aircraft systems and i'll deliver them.....
you said you want military action but you aren't prepared to put your boots on the ground.
get ypur boots on the ground and we'll listen to what you have to say.
and no, you wouldn't deliver them not a chance.
So i put in my two pennyworth but rather than any meaningful argument/debate its basically "XXXX off, Your not in our clic" or even more laughable "Troll" from Pross who i used think was an alright poster
All of which is slightly ironic given its a thread about a despot who won't listen to reason!
Falle - if the only people you will listen to are people on the ground fighting in Ukraine, then you'll have a very small audience but of course thats just a Red Herring, you can't actually contribute any original thought, which is pretty much all you were capable off in the past.
Stand up to Putin but give him a way out or risk a wider spread conflict, he is now telling the world Ukraine has/working on Biological weapons, setting the scene for even more horrific conventional and battle field nuclear weapons.
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But it makes us feel good about ourselves when we seize their yachts, houses and football clubs doesn't it?Jezyboy said:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/08/sanctions-vladimir-putin-kremlin-russian-oligarchyrick_chasey said:
They have a much better understanding of the power structures than we do.Jezyboy said:
Do the Kremlinologists have a good record on predictions?rick_chasey said:
All the Kremlinologists (fwiw) seem to think if it’s a coup it’ll only be more hardline.Jezyboy said:
Yea, I assume we're some way off a deal that is agreeable to both parties.First.Aspect said:
I read he wants a ground route to Crimea.TheBigBean said:Isn't the solution likely to be that Russia gets Crimea, Ukraine promises not to join NATO for a period of time and Russia pays reparations in some form e.g. high rent on nord stream. Putin then celebrates his greatness whilst knowing he lost.
i.e. Dnipro, Maruipol, Donetsk, Krasnadar.
Oh, and disarmament and neutrality.
No doubt he wants an apology and compensation from Biden also.
Is it possible that Putin just gets delt with by some Russians who feel they are better served by not being a pariah state.
It would have to be revolutionary which seems a long way off and the wargamaing analysis suggests he’d use nukes before then (unless he wins of course)
The summary is he’s surrounded himself with hardliners and they are hooked to the ship.
The rest he is very isolated from, so they have little chance of getting at him, or building a power base.
So if it’s gonna be one it’s gonna be a hardliners who’s worried he’s gonna go down with the ship.
So the TLDR is the rich oligarchs we see have surprisingly little power.
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Relax, you'll be fine. It's only a montage of Kisin speaking on QT. I hadn't heard of him nor Triggernometry either but came across the clip whilst down the YT rabbit hole.pangolin said:
Not going to be able to watch it until this evening. However it's hard to take your points seriously when you post stuff from channels called "Trigger nometry" or "Meme the left".ballysmate said:Not watched Question Time for years, but here's a clip of Konstantin Kisin (Russian born comedian and writer apparently) giving his insight. Perhaps not what people want to hear.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DXwlqoSF70&ab_channel=Triggernometry
Take a look, you may think it bollox, but don't ignore it because you don't like the look of the source.
I've posted links on here from the Guardian in the past, as I feel that even they can not be wrong 100% of the time. I assume they get the Pango seal of approval?
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This reading of the situation (just flagging it up that the link was on Chris Williamson's Twitter so I'm not vouching for the source) is rather less negative about the Russian performance so far.
As a precis they reckon Russia has been concentrating on destroying the strongest part of Ukraine's army in the East and their campaign is going to plan, Zelensky is a bit of a puppet and the West's sanctions policy is self destructive.
Just interesting to get alternative perspectives.
https://youtu.be/4uJTNJpfeVo
[Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]1
