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  • MidlandsGrimpeur2
    MidlandsGrimpeur2 Posts: 2,169
    can you dumb this down please?


    Remembering my A-Level economics:

    Deflation = prices are falling (and inflation must be negative)
    Disinflation = slowing of the inflation rate (whilst inflation remains a positive)

    Disinflation is more common than deflation and generally not as bad as deflation, which usually means a recession is imminent.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,465
    TheBigBean said:

    Isn't the solution likely to be that Russia gets Crimea, Ukraine promises not to join NATO for a period of time and Russia pays reparations in some form e.g. high rent on nord stream. Putin then celebrates his greatness whilst knowing he lost.

    I read he wants a ground route to Crimea.
    i.e. Dnipro, Maruipol, Donetsk, Krasnadar.

    Oh, and disarmament and neutrality.

    No doubt he wants an apology and compensation from Biden also.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,895
    edited March 2022
    TheBigBean said:

    Isn't the solution likely to be that Russia gets Crimea, Ukraine promises not to join NATO for a period of time and Russia pays reparations in some form e.g. high rent on nord stream. Putin then celebrates his greatness whilst knowing he lost.

    For someone championing self determination, you seem to be quick to dismiss Ukraine's right to apply join whatever organisations it chooses. The solution is a deposed or dead Putin. What you are suggesting is effectively legitimising one country annexing part of another on the basis of fake history.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,895
    ddraver said:

    A horrible video of a russian tank destroying a car driven by an elderly couple doing the rounds on twitter.

    It's as graphic and as bad as you're imagining.

    There are plenty more including what was left of the Russian paras that tried to hold Hostormel Airport.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,465
    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    Isn't the solution likely to be that Russia gets Crimea, Ukraine promises not to join NATO for a period of time and Russia pays reparations in some form e.g. high rent on nord stream. Putin then celebrates his greatness whilst knowing he lost.

    The solution is a deposed or dead Putin. What you are suggesting is effectively legitimising one country annexing part of another on the basis of similar language.
    Not sure, at this point it would be a viable de escalation route.

    Sanctions and the inevitable cold feet regardless of sanctions are the long game.
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    MidlandsGrimpeur2 said:

    can you dumb this down please?


    Remembering my A-Level economics:

    Deflation = prices are falling (and inflation must be negative)
    Disinflation = slowing of the inflation rate (whilst inflation remains a positive)

    Disinflation is more common than deflation and generally not as bad as deflation, which usually means a recession is imminent.
    grazie!
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    He’s said in things he’s written in the past he wants to rebuild the old Russian empire.

    So that includes most of Poland, the baltics and a whole host besides
    _
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    rick_chasey said:

    MattFalle said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rick_chasey said:

    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I follow a lot of economists on Twitter and all of them are declaring “oil price shocks are deflationary” FYI

    Eg.

    The source you quote is saying disinflationary not deflationary
    And eventually. Other than that, a good summary.
    Honest Q I don’t know the difference between disinflationary and deflationary
    One is relative the other is absolute. Deflation involves negative inflation. Disinflationary is less inflation than otherwise would be the case.
    mec, i stick needles in people .

    can you dumb this down please?
    I guess with my new found knowledge something that slows down inflation, say from 7% to 5% is disinflationary. Deflation is negative inflation.

    Am I getting this right?
    grazie!
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    rick_chasey said:

    MattFalle said:

    TheBigBean said:

    rick_chasey said:

    TheBigBean said:

    surrey_commuter said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I follow a lot of economists on Twitter and all of them are declaring “oil price shocks are deflationary” FYI

    Eg.

    The source you quote is saying disinflationary not deflationary
    And eventually. Other than that, a good summary.
    Honest Q I don’t know the difference between disinflationary and deflationary
    One is relative the other is absolute. Deflation involves negative inflation. Disinflationary is less inflation than otherwise would be the case.
    mec, i stick needles in people .

    can you dumb this down please?
    I guess with my new found knowledge something that slows down inflation, say from 7% to 5% is disinflationary. Deflation is negative inflation.

    Am I getting this right?
    grazie!
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • ddraver
    ddraver Posts: 26,739
    rjsterry said:

    ddraver said:

    A horrible video of a russian tank destroying a car driven by an elderly couple doing the rounds on twitter.

    It's as graphic and as bad as you're imagining.

    There are plenty more including what was left of the Russian paras that tried to hold Hostormel Airport.
    There are but I do try and follow people that don't post such things. I've seen enough dead bodies to not need to see them over tea. That one slipped through though
    We're in danger of confusing passion with incompetence
    - @ddraver
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,465
    rick_chasey said:

    He’s said in things he’s written in the past he wants to rebuild the old Russian empire.

    So that includes most of Poland, the baltics and a whole host besides

    He can't. He hasn't got the resources or the time to personally oversee acquiring them. There's no way out of this without the west having to keep a foot on his throat to ensure that, while Europe arms up.
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    rjsterry said:

    ddraver said:

    A horrible video of a russian tank destroying a car driven by an elderly couple doing the rounds on twitter.

    It's as graphic and as bad as you're imagining.

    There are plenty more including what was left of the Russian paras that tried to hold Hostormel Airport.
    nah.

    they ain't paras.

    they are a bunch of hats.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    ddraver said:

    rjsterry said:

    ddraver said:

    A horrible video of a russian tank destroying a car driven by an elderly couple doing the rounds on twitter.

    It's as graphic and as bad as you're imagining.

    There are plenty more including what was left of the Russian paras that tried to hold Hostormel Airport.
    There are but I do try and follow people that don't post such things. I've seen enough dead bodies to not need to see them over tea. That one slipped through though
    this, totally.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    https://warontherocks.com/2021/11/feeding-the-bear-a-closer-look-at-russian-army-logistics/

    This is quite a prescient article from 2021.

    The website seems quite informed. Podcast from yesterday seems to conclude the war is basically still in the balance, Russia has had a terrible start (but this is nothing new - this is apparently quite common in other wars they have had), Ukrainian morale is high (but has yet to experience a big defeat), but the Russians are still making progress and will likely flatten Kyiv given prior behaviour and their movements to en or lead Kyiv point to that too.

    Not enormously ground breaking.

    The article about however explains the supply issues and goes a long way to explain the pause the Russians have had the last couple days - they’re basically re stocking.

    Podcaster also makes the point that there is a danger of making the same German 1939-1940 mistake about assuming the Russian army was a paper tiger given their abject failure in Finland.

    _
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,895
    Stevo_666 said:

    briantrumpet said:

    shirley_basso said:

    MattFalle said:

    shirley_basso said:

    Ending for some sectors from 1st April. Will drive £1.5bn to the treasury P.A, apparently.

    which sectors?
    All except agri, rail, non-commercial heating.

    @Stevo_666 :)

    I know I said we have oil fired CH - it's actually kerosene. Hey ho.
    If we see a huge black plume over NW Kent, we'll know you've had to resort to burning what you can find.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    First.Aspect said:

    rick_chasey said:

    He’s said in things he’s written in the past he wants to rebuild the old Russian empire.

    So that includes most of Poland, the baltics and a whole host besides

    He can't. He hasn't got the resources or the time to personally oversee acquiring them. There's no way out of this without the west having to keep a foot on his throat to ensure that, while Europe arms up.

    Agreed. The past 2 weeks in Ukraine have showed him that forcibly occupying a country isn’t anywhere near as easy as his generals told him it would be, and their population just won’t stand by and let it happen.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,895
    ddraver said:

    rjsterry said:

    ddraver said:

    A horrible video of a russian tank destroying a car driven by an elderly couple doing the rounds on twitter.

    It's as graphic and as bad as you're imagining.

    There are plenty more including what was left of the Russian paras that tried to hold Hostormel Airport.
    There are but I do try and follow people that don't post such things. I've seen enough dead bodies to not need to see them over tea. That one slipped through though
    Likewise. I was reading one of Kamil Galeev's long and detailed threads and it was just slotted in after a video of a Russian bombing raid. Not easily forgotten.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • TheBigBean
    TheBigBean Posts: 22,079
    rjsterry said:

    TheBigBean said:

    Isn't the solution likely to be that Russia gets Crimea, Ukraine promises not to join NATO for a period of time and Russia pays reparations in some form e.g. high rent on nord stream. Putin then celebrates his greatness whilst knowing he lost.

    For someone championing self determination, you seem to be quick to dismiss Ukraine's right to apply join whatever organisations it chooses. The solution is a deposed or dead Putin. What you are suggesting is effectively legitimising one country annexing part of another on the basis of fake history.
    I'm not dismissing it all. I'm suggesting something that Ukraine might agree to. As to the wishes of the population of Crimea, I have repeatedly mentioned that this should be a factor.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,682
    morstar said:

    Jezyboy said:



    Fortunately this chancer is no longer a Labour MP.
    Jesus F’in H Christ!

    The biggest problem with that is you can see from the number of likes that he's playing to an audience.
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,623
    Michael Clark on Sky News is excellent.
    He was suggesting that the Ukrainians have been hitting the fuel supply to the static convoy, and destroying the fuel trucks in the convoy.

    Some big developments today with the Mig swap and the US ban on buying Putin's oil and gas.
  • shirley_basso
    shirley_basso Posts: 6,195
    edited March 2022
    .
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    _
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,682
    tailwindhome said:

    The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Goverment, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Rammstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.

    At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes.

    The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies – owners of MIG-29 jets – to act in the same vein.


    At what point do you think Putin would consider something like this as NATO getting involved? I know NATO countries have been providing 'defensive' weapons throughout but supplying planes feels like notching it up a step (not that I think it's abad thing, just trying to think how it will be spun from the other side).
  • blazing_saddles
    blazing_saddles Posts: 22,734
    rick_chasey said:

    He’s said in things he’s written in the past he wants to rebuild the old Russian empire.

    So that includes most of Poland, the baltics and a whole host besides

    Always the the way with megalomaniacs, when they get to the top on the home front.
    "Science is a tool for cheaters". An anonymous French PE teacher.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,895
    Pross said:

    tailwindhome said:

    The authorities of the Republic of Poland, after consultations between the President and the Goverment, are ready to deploy – immediately and free of charge – all their MIG-29 jets to the Rammstein Air Base and place them at the disposal of the Government of the United States of America.

    At the same time, Poland requests the United States to provide us with used aircraft with corresponding operational capabilities. Poland is ready to immediately establish the conditions of purchase of the planes.

    The Polish Government also requests other NATO Allies – owners of MIG-29 jets – to act in the same vein.


    At what point do you think Putin would consider something like this as NATO getting involved? I know NATO countries have been providing 'defensive' weapons throughout but supplying planes feels like notching it up a step (not that I think it's abad thing, just trying to think how it will be spun from the other side).
    I didn't catch his name, but a chap on Newsnight last night pointed out that NATO had got involved with Russia on more than one occasion previously. Most recently, Turkey shot down a Russian bomber involved in Syria. Russia did nothing then and his argument was that perhaps we don't need to tread quite so carefully. Who knows, but interesting to hear the supposed red line is not as absolute as it is suggested.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,674
    First.Aspect said:

    TheBigBean said:

    Isn't the solution likely to be that Russia gets Crimea, Ukraine promises not to join NATO for a period of time and Russia pays reparations in some form e.g. high rent on nord stream. Putin then celebrates his greatness whilst knowing he lost.

    I read he wants a ground route to Crimea.
    i.e. Dnipro, Maruipol, Donetsk, Krasnadar.

    Oh, and disarmament and neutrality.

    No doubt he wants an apology and compensation from Biden also.
    Yea, I assume we're some way off a deal that is agreeable to both parties.

    Is it possible that Putin just gets delt with by some Russians who feel they are better served by not being a pariah state.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    Jezyboy said:

    First.Aspect said:

    TheBigBean said:

    Isn't the solution likely to be that Russia gets Crimea, Ukraine promises not to join NATO for a period of time and Russia pays reparations in some form e.g. high rent on nord stream. Putin then celebrates his greatness whilst knowing he lost.

    I read he wants a ground route to Crimea.
    i.e. Dnipro, Maruipol, Donetsk, Krasnadar.

    Oh, and disarmament and neutrality.

    No doubt he wants an apology and compensation from Biden also.
    Yea, I assume we're some way off a deal that is agreeable to both parties.

    Is it possible that Putin just gets delt with by some Russians who feel they are better served by not being a pariah state.
    All the Kremlinologists (fwiw) seem to think if it’s a coup it’ll only be more hardline.

    It would have to be revolutionary which seems a long way off and the wargamaing analysis suggests he’d use nukes before then (unless he wins of course)
    _
  • shirley_basso
    shirley_basso Posts: 6,195
    That's what I am desperately hoping for. If they off'd Putin now before any more sanctions are put in place then I'm sure most of the remaining oligarchs would be happy to get away with their fortunes still in tact.
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,960
    Good shot!
    https://youtu.be/p4TB0pqxXXg
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,674
    rick_chasey said:

    Jezyboy said:

    First.Aspect said:

    TheBigBean said:

    Isn't the solution likely to be that Russia gets Crimea, Ukraine promises not to join NATO for a period of time and Russia pays reparations in some form e.g. high rent on nord stream. Putin then celebrates his greatness whilst knowing he lost.

    I read he wants a ground route to Crimea.
    i.e. Dnipro, Maruipol, Donetsk, Krasnadar.

    Oh, and disarmament and neutrality.

    No doubt he wants an apology and compensation from Biden also.
    Yea, I assume we're some way off a deal that is agreeable to both parties.

    Is it possible that Putin just gets delt with by some Russians who feel they are better served by not being a pariah state.
    All the Kremlinologists (fwiw) seem to think if it’s a coup it’ll only be more hardline.

    It would have to be revolutionary which seems a long way off and the wargamaing analysis suggests he’d use nukes before then (unless he wins of course)
    Do the Kremlinologists have a good record on predictions?

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