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  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    rick_chasey said:

    I do also wonder if civilian attacks on Russians build they’ll start taking revenge/heavy handed precautions…

    Russians never care about collateral damage. They have done a nerve agent and nuclear poisoning on UK soil FFS. This week they were firing a missile through the corner of an apartment block. Even if we are assuming their tech is shit it was still a way from the airport to just be bad aim.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    shirley_basso said:

    Or it's not true? (I don't know which)

    EDIT - covered here re: TV channels, in the MSM:

    https://www.ft.com/content/176c0332-b927-465d-9eac-3b2d7eb9706a

    As for the US puppet thing - it all goes back to George Soros (who else!?)

    Best propaganda has a kernel of truth. He shut down their equivalent of RT.

    Article is exactly a year old.

    "Mr Zelensky said on Wednesday: “Ukraine strongly supports freedom of speech . . . not propaganda financed by the aggressor country that undermines Ukraine on its way to EU and Euro-Atlantic integration.”"

    Hard to argue, in hindsight.
  • shirley_basso
    shirley_basso Posts: 6,195
    Looks like the 17 mile long convoy is making headway.

    Hopefully the Ukranians are getting good intel on where good strike points are
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    john80 said:

    rick_chasey said:

    I do also wonder if civilian attacks on Russians build they’ll start taking revenge/heavy handed precautions…

    Russians never care about collateral damage. They have done a nerve agent and nuclear poisoning on UK soil FFS. This week they were firing a missile through the corner of an apartment block. Even if we are assuming their tech is censored it was still a way from the airport to just be bad aim.
    Right now there are tonnes of videos of tanks being stopped by lines of civilians, local Ukrainian mobs chanting “go home” etc.
    _
  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,436
    GB News having a great war





    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    The other factor the Russians probably hadn’t factored in was just how much intel can be fed from US/NATO/EU satellites to Ukrainian soldiers on the ground.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,152
    Is that the safest vehicle to be driving in that area?
    tailwindhome said:

    GB News having a great war





    It's quite the take. "I don't know anything about it, but I know it's the west's fault."
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    tailwindhome said:

    GB News having a great war





    Well it doesn't have much Coast any more, that's one thing.
  • john80
    john80 Posts: 2,965
    tailwindhome said:

    GB News having a great war





    tailwindhome said:

    GB News having a great war





    His entire monologue was about how he could not possibly know what was going on in Ukraine. However he is definitely sure he does not trust those in power in the west. The only thing that could rival it is a video from a Russian government spokesman.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    kingstonian said:

    The other factor the Russians probably hadn’t factored in was just how much intel can be fed from US/NATO/EU satellites to Ukrainian soldiers on the ground.

    Surely they would have absolutely factored that in?

    If we can work that out I’m sure Russian military can?
    _
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,553
    Then there's the accidentally published 'victory' article that gives a better idea of the motivation behind the invasion.
    https://web.archive.org/web/20220226051154/https://ria.ru/20220226/rossiya-1775162336.html

    Discussion of the contents here
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    rick_chasey said:

    kingstonian said:

    The other factor the Russians probably hadn’t factored in was just how much intel can be fed from US/NATO/EU satellites to Ukrainian soldiers on the ground.

    Surely they would have absolutely factored that in?

    If we can work that out I’m sure Russian military can?



    That’s what these planes are doing - ‘NATO’ is monitoring airborne movements, and ‘HOMER’ is snooping on ground communications. I think it’s a fair guess that this intel is getting fed to people inside and outside the war zone, be it Ukrainian forces of retired Glasgow bus driver Jim ‘Jock’ Mcallister and his pals.

  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    kingstonian said:

    The other factor the Russians probably hadn’t factored in was just how much intel can be fed from US/NATO/EU satellites to Ukrainian soldiers on the ground.

    of course they had.

    the ukranians are getting every bit of info from every source you can think plus more you don't know about and then some.

    its basic stuff.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    First.Aspect said:

    rjsterry said:

    rick_chasey said:

    rjsterry said:

    A very long but interesting thread on how and why this has not gone Putin's way.

    …..so far….
    Worth a read if you haven't already. Goes right back through Putin's history. A little frustrating to read as a Twitter thread but there you go.
    Interesting hypothesis. All boils down to even 150k troops being nowhere near enough.

    Would be interested in an informed take on the rule of thumb that you need 6 times the resources to invade, than the country you are invading.

    Ukraine's army is about 200k, Russia's 800k. Of which about 1/4 were massed and half of those have been sent in.

    Was it ever going to work?
    i refer you back to my post re combat ratios.

    its basics, innit.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    MattFalle said:

    First.Aspect said:

    rjsterry said:

    rick_chasey said:

    rjsterry said:

    A very long but interesting thread on how and why this has not gone Putin's way.

    …..so far….
    Worth a read if you haven't already. Goes right back through Putin's history. A little frustrating to read as a Twitter thread but there you go.
    Interesting hypothesis. All boils down to even 150k troops being nowhere near enough.

    Would be interested in an informed take on the rule of thumb that you need 6 times the resources to invade, than the country you are invading.

    Ukraine's army is about 200k, Russia's 800k. Of which about 1/4 were massed and half of those have been sent in.

    Was it ever going to work?
    i refer you back to my post re combat ratios.

    its basics, innit.
    Perhaps. Depends what you know doesn't it? What I do for a living is completely beyond your comprehension, but to anyone is interested I'm happy to try to explain buts of it when asked.

    Don't feel obliged to try the other way around though.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,463
    Recognition of Crimea as Russian is now part of Russian peace demands.

    I can see it coming down to who runs out of food and supplies first if the Russians encircle Kyiv.
  • thegreatdivide
    thegreatdivide Posts: 5,807
    MattFalle said:

    kingstonian said:

    The other factor the Russians probably hadn’t factored in was just how much intel can be fed from US/NATO/EU satellites to Ukrainian soldiers on the ground.

    of course they had.

    the ukranians are getting every bit of info from every source you can think plus more you don't know about and then some.

    its basic stuff.
    As well as the aforementioned E-3 AWACS (NATO) and RC-135 (HOMER) stuff that's going up and down the border, the US are sending regular U-2S flights out of RAF Fairford which will sit at 80,000 ft bulging with sensors. Call sign BLACK01* set off just after 07:00 this morning, but you're not going to see it on the web based trackers for obvious reasons.

    *I'm a lowly spotter - folk in the upper league of a closed forum I subscribe to take their military traffic monitoring to a whole different level.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,104
    Pross said:

    Recognition of Crimea as Russian is now part of Russian peace demands.

    I can see it coming down to who runs out of food and supplies first if the Russians encircle Kyiv.

    I think I'd give up Ukraine and even the Dombass (?) region if it meant Russia withdrawing and some guarantee if Ukrainian sovereignty in the rest of the country

    It's not as if there is a long history of Ukraine being a state with Crimea as an integral part of it and I believe the majority are ethnically/linguistically Russian. The former majority Tatar population have been replaced since the 19th century and deported en masse post ww2 - I don't know if there is a movement for them to reclaim it but realistically that's not happening.


    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    edited March 2022
    First.Aspect said:

    MattFalle said:

    First.Aspect said:

    rjsterry said:

    rick_chasey said:

    rjsterry said:

    A very long but interesting thread on how and why this has not gone Putin's way.

    …..so far….
    Worth a read if you haven't already. Goes right back through Putin's history. A little frustrating to read as a Twitter thread but there you go.
    Interesting hypothesis. All boils down to even 150k troops being nowhere near enough.

    Would be interested in an informed take on the rule of thumb that you need 6 times the resources to invade, than the country you are invading.

    Ukraine's army is about 200k, Russia's 800k. Of which about 1/4 were massed and half of those have been sent in.

    Was it ever going to work?
    i refer you back to my post re combat ratios.

    its basics, innit.
    Perhaps. Depends what you know doesn't it? What I do for a living is completely beyond your comprehension, but to anyone is interested I'm happy to try to explain buts of it when asked.

    Don't feel obliged to try the other way around though.
    agreed and apols.

    ok - NATO mantra is you never, ever take on anyone unless you have a numbers superiority of, at the minimum, 4:1 - you're gonna get smashed otherwise.

    Doesn't matter if you have air superiority or whatever, minimum of 4:1.

    You'll get rare exceptions to this dependant on the tasking (eg 22 doing something squeaky beaky) but average bod - minimum 4:1.

    Mad vlad's ratios were massively out when he invaded which is why we all scratched our heads when it happened. Danning also said this when interviewed.

    Urban ops ratios are different again (higher in your favour) but you know you're looking at a 60/70% casualty rate on your side straightaway which is why you stay out of urban ops - part of the reason the russians are now trying to lay siege to places. Stacking up to enter a building you're losing the first two guys of every team the minute you go in, everytime.

    bear in mind as well that its not just combat troops you need but combat support arms and support services - mad vlad seems to be missing these which is why the Russians have limited food/fuel.

    hope that makes some sense - again, apols.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    edited March 2022
    thegreatdivide said:

    MattFalle said:

    kingstonian said:

    The other factor the Russians probably hadn’t factored in was just how much intel can be fed from US/NATO/EU satellites to Ukrainian soldiers on the ground.

    of course they had.

    the ukranians are getting every bit of info from every source you can think plus more you don't know about and then some.

    its basic stuff.
    As well as the aforementioned E-3 AWACS (NATO) and RC-135 (HOMER) stuff that's going up and down the border, the US are sending regular U-2S flights out of RAF Fairford which will sit at 80,000 ft bulging with sensors. Call sign BLACK01* set off just after 07:00 this morning, but you're not going to see it on the web based trackers for obvious reasons.

    *I'm a lowly spotter - folk in the upper league of a closed forum I subscribe to take their military traffic monitoring to a whole different level.
    and tv and civpop and recce troop and SRR and D Force and 6 and the CIA and MOSSAD and everything else.


    it'll all be being fed into a central area, briefings given out, target selection ensues.
    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • First.Aspect
    First.Aspect Posts: 17,167
    DeVlaeminck said:

    Pross said:

    Recognition of Crimea as Russian is now part of Russian peace demands.

    I can see it coming down to who runs out of food and supplies first if the Russians encircle Kyiv.

    I think I'd give up Ukraine and even the Dombass (?) region if it meant Russia withdrawing and some guarantee if Ukrainian sovereignty in the rest of the country

    It's not as if there is a long history of Ukraine being a state with Crimea as an integral part of it and I believe the majority are ethnically/linguistically Russian. The former majority Tatar population have been replaced since the 19th century and deported en masse post ww2 - I don't know if there is a movement for them to reclaim it but realistically that's not happening.
    Would you maintain sanctions? Or are those part of the quid pro quo? (The latter, obviously).

    So, Russia invades, gets some land, consequences of doing so removed.

    What next? Where next?
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    DeVlaeminck said:

    Pross said:

    Recognition of Crimea as Russian is now part of Russian peace demands.

    I can see it coming down to who runs out of food and supplies first if the Russians encircle Kyiv.

    I think I'd give up Ukraine and even the Dombass (?) region if it meant Russia withdrawing and some guarantee if Ukrainian sovereignty in the rest of the country

    It's not as if there is a long history of Ukraine being a state with Crimea as an integral part of it and I believe the majority are ethnically/linguistically Russian. The former majority Tatar population have been replaced since the 19th century and deported en masse post ww2 - I don't know if there is a movement for them to reclaim it but realistically that's not happening.


    I don’t think Putin will stop unless his forces or he himself is actually stopped.
    _
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,553
    MattFalle said:

    thegreatdivide said:

    MattFalle said:

    kingstonian said:

    The other factor the Russians probably hadn’t factored in was just how much intel can be fed from US/NATO/EU satellites to Ukrainian soldiers on the ground.

    of course they had.

    the ukranians are getting every bit of info from every source you can think plus more you don't know about and then some.

    its basic stuff.
    As well as the aforementioned E-3 AWACS (NATO) and RC-135 (HOMER) stuff that's going up and down the border, the US are sending regular U-2S flights out of RAF Fairford which will sit at 80,000 ft bulging with sensors. Call sign BLACK01* set off just after 07:00 this morning, but you're not going to see it on the web based trackers for obvious reasons.

    *I'm a lowly spotter - folk in the upper league of a closed forum I subscribe to take their military traffic monitoring to a whole different level.
    and tv and civpop and recce troop and SRR and D Force and 6 and the CIA and MOSSAD and everything else.


    it'll all be being fed into a central area, briefings given out, target selection ensues.
    FFS use English, man.
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    US intelligence still on the money - Russians now going around Melitopol with a list of names and addresses looking to arrest people. FFS.
    _
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    rick_chasey said:

    kingstonian said:

    The other factor the Russians probably hadn’t factored in was just how much intel can be fed from US/NATO/EU satellites to Ukrainian soldiers on the ground.

    Surely they would have absolutely factored that in?

    If we can work that out I’m sure Russian military can?

    My thinking was that this is really the first time that all these organisations have come together to provide another country outside of their jurisdiction with all this info. I’m not sure anyone truly expected the level of international cooperation that we’ve seen since Russian forces invaded and information sharing is just one part of that. But who knows, maybe those in the know absolutely expected it.
  • rjsterry
    rjsterry Posts: 29,553
    rick_chasey said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    Pross said:

    Recognition of Crimea as Russian is now part of Russian peace demands.

    I can see it coming down to who runs out of food and supplies first if the Russians encircle Kyiv.

    I think I'd give up Ukraine and even the Dombass (?) region if it meant Russia withdrawing and some guarantee if Ukrainian sovereignty in the rest of the country

    It's not as if there is a long history of Ukraine being a state with Crimea as an integral part of it and I believe the majority are ethnically/linguistically Russian. The former majority Tatar population have been replaced since the 19th century and deported en masse post ww2 - I don't know if there is a movement for them to reclaim it but realistically that's not happening.


    I don’t think Putin will stop unless his forces or he himself is actually stopped.
    He hasn't stopped in the last 20 years, so why now?
    1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
    Pinnacle Monzonite

    Part of the anti-growth coalition
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    rjsterry said:

    rick_chasey said:

    DeVlaeminck said:

    Pross said:

    Recognition of Crimea as Russian is now part of Russian peace demands.

    I can see it coming down to who runs out of food and supplies first if the Russians encircle Kyiv.

    I think I'd give up Ukraine and even the Dombass (?) region if it meant Russia withdrawing and some guarantee if Ukrainian sovereignty in the rest of the country

    It's not as if there is a long history of Ukraine being a state with Crimea as an integral part of it and I believe the majority are ethnically/linguistically Russian. The former majority Tatar population have been replaced since the 19th century and deported en masse post ww2 - I don't know if there is a movement for them to reclaim it but realistically that's not happening.


    I don’t think Putin will stop unless his forces or he himself is actually stopped.
    He hasn't stopped in the last 20 years, so why now?
    Exactly.
    _
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Correct me if I am wrong but a siege requires quite a lot of manpower to maintain, right?
    _
  • MattFalle
    MattFalle Posts: 11,644
    edited March 2022
    they all did it in Iraq, they did it in Afghan, they all do it in Africa all the time, everyone is monitoring everyone all the time - its all behind the scenes co-operation and part of being NATO/coalition forces.



    everyone expected this level of cooperation because of exactly what is happening.

    .
    The camera down the willy isn't anything like as bad as it sounds.
  • kingstonian
    kingstonian Posts: 2,847
    rick_chasey said:

    Correct me if I am wrong but a siege requires quite a lot of manpower to maintain, right?


    Yes, and a hell of a lot of logistics flows to maintain

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