Poo tin... Put@in...
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too late for who?
The economic cost of the cold war broke the Soviet Union and I am sure the West sees Ukraine as the anvil on which to break Putin's Russia
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From a Ukraine point of view do they aim to hold out until Putin snuffs it or would his successor be likely to just continue things? The rumours around Putin's health seem to have gone quiet but we don't seem to see a lot of him these days. It would be a tough sell for whoever took over in Russia if they ended the war with nothing they could pass off as a victory for the loss of life.
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Holding out would give them a border roughly where it is today which they could have now if they wanted to
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Putin is not offering them that. And even if he did he would still continue to lob drones, etc at Ukrainian cities and attempt to undermine their government by other means. They tried that strategy in 2014 and look where we are.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
And this is exactly why Putin cannot be trusted. By anyone.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
and if he did that they would continue to make his crimean naval basis unusable
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That's not an end to the war, then, is it? What are Ukraine getting for giving up their land?
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
A few years of peace and rebuilding.
Until the next "training exercise".
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Ukraine obviously. They won't suddenly be independent once Russia declares bankruptcy. What have you been smoking man!
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Weeks, not years.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Not often I'm the optimist. 😉
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Ukraine get no more bombs and missiles landing on their cities and an end to the killed and maimed soldiers. Throw in some security guarantees and rebuilding funds that will be as good as it gets.
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After the complete failure of their much vaunted counter offensive what do you think winning will look like for Ukraine?
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if his economy is creaking he will have enough to declare victory
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It would feel like a loss for both sides considering they could have gone down that route 18 months ago and saved thousands of lives. It would arguably be a harder sell for Zelenskyy than for Putin, there seems to still be an appetite amongst Ukranians to keep fighting.
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Ukraine being in existence in 10 years time in any condition will be a win.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
The Russian economy is a means to Putin's imperial end, not the other way around.
He has geared the whole thing up to win this war at his maximalist objectives - whatever the cost.
This is an existential war for Ukraine and it will be either or. Just because it's stalemate now doesn't mean it will be stalemate forever. Either Ukraine wins and it survives or Ukraine loses and it gets annexed by Russia.
If they do agree a deal it will be for Russia to re-group to then continue the offensive at a later date.
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but what does "Ukraine wins" look like?
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Ultimately they have to expel Russia out of Ukraine else it will just keep going on and on.
Anything else leaves the door open for another round. Defeating Russia at least forces them to think twice. They will have to keep extremely well armed for the foreseeable until Russia explicitly and believably gives up its imperial aims to annex Ukraine.
I'm not exaggerating when I call it existential. I think there is a debate to be had if Ukraine is taking it seriously enough with respect to drafting, and commandeering parts of the economy for the war effort, though it's not very popular to ask such questions.
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they threw the kitchen sink at the Russsians in the summer and got absolutely no where. They can not win militarily so they are left to hope that the Russians give up and go home.
Conscription may reveal that people are not that keen to get killed and maimed
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You keep looking at this from the Ukraine side - Putin is not a rational actor in this.
If Ukraine cannot expel Russia from Ukraine why would Russia ever stop until it annexes Ukraine?
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...and then Moldova? Latvia? Lithuania? Estonia? Finland?
Belarus are exempt as they are Putin's lap dog.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
I don't think he's quite stupid enough to take on NATO members considering how tough he is finding it fighting a country with some NATO support in terms of equipment but not much else (assuming NATO retains full US support which possibly depends on what happens with Trump!).
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Yeah, probably. Not definitely though as I'm not convinced NATO is as united as we'd like to think.
Still leaves Moldova.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Moldova isn't really worth fighting for I wouldn't have thought. Ukraine is important for it's coastline in addition to the strategic issue of it potentially becoming a NATO country right on Russia's border. I was slightly surprised that Ukraine is actually the only place ranked as poorer than Moldova in Europe but not sure if that is due to the impact of the war on GDP
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Russia will stop because it is stuck in a very expensive stalemate
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It might not be worth fighting from our point of view, but an easy win would only embolden Putin.
Sad state of affairs if the only places worth defending are on a GDP basis.
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.1
