Poo tin... Put@in...

MidlandsGrimpeur2

As much as I would love to see both Sheeran and Bono dropped on the invading Russian army, I have a serious question!

I have zero knowledge of military tactics and warfare in general but it is fairly obvious the Russian army is p1ss poor. How are the Ukranians holding up at present, is there a realistic chance they can hold out and eventually force a Russian withdrawal? It appears any long term occupation by Russia is (hopefully) extremely unlikely, or am I being too optimistic?

Basically, can the Ukranians spank them even harder and get their country back?

HilaryAmin

MattFalle said:

shirley_basso said:

Unpopular opinion. I like Ed Sheeran. Especially the first album

Sheeran in s postl sack being played with a pick axe handle.

awful person
awful music
totalshyte.

can we drop him on the Russins please? From, say, 3,000 feet so he has enough time to contemplate the bad he has done in this world.

Yes but only if you can guarantee he will land on Putin.

briantrumpet

HilaryAmin said:

MattFalle said:

shirley_basso said:

Unpopular opinion. I like Ed Sheeran. Especially the first album

Sheeran in s postl sack being played with a pick axe handle.

awful person
awful music
totalshyte.

can we drop him on the Russins please? From, say, 3,000 feet so he has enough time to contemplate the bad he has done in this world.

Yes but only if you can guarantee he will land on Putin.

If he were to land on the other end of that very long table, Putin might be catapulted into Ukraine, for summary justice.

MattFalle

HilaryAmin said:

MattFalle said:

shirley_basso said:

Unpopular opinion. I like Ed Sheeran. Especially the first album

Sheeran in s postl sack being played with a pick axe handle.

awful person
awful music
totalshyte.

can we drop him on the Russins please? From, say, 3,000 feet so he has enough time to contemplate the bad he has done in this world.

Yes but only if you can guarantee he will land on Putin.

tbh, i see where you're coming from but i'm happy if he falls onto something spikey andcovered inshit

davidof

MidlandsGrimpeur2 said:

I have zero knowledge of military tactics and warfare in general but it is fairly obvious the Russian army is p1ss poor. How are the Ukranians holding up at present, is there a realistic chance they can hold out and eventually force a Russian withdrawal? It appears any long term occupation by Russia is (hopefully) extremely unlikely, or am I being too optimistic?

Basically, can the Ukranians spank them even harder and get their country back?

No. In theory.

However if they can get some of the weapons they are being supplied up to the Donbass front they can continue to bleed the Russians white. The Russian defence ministry admitted they had suffered "significant losses" - up to 25% of troops in each battalion KIA or wounded. That will take time to fix. Russian troops are also poorly motivated and led and seem more interested in plunder than actual fighting. It is estimated that Ukr losses are a third of Russian and they actually have more armoured vehicles now than at the start of the conflict.

They have been supplied with 5000 lightweight Matador anti tank weapons and the US switchblades will severely hinder Russian army if they can get enough.

Russian tactics seem to be the same as in Chechnya - send in unsupported armoured columns down roads and wait for them to get ambushed then bring up heavy artillery and flatten towns. As we learned at Monte Casino turning towns to rubble often just provides better cover for defenders.

Russia is focussing more on attacking Ukr. logistics which will make it hard to bring weapons from the West all the way up to the new front line. However the Ukr. troops in Donbass are the best in the Ukr. army. Not the militias we saw in Kiev.

pblakeney

As said pages and pages ago it takes a massive resource to control a country.
Ukraine can be a major PIA with even limited numbers given the right equipment.

MidlandsGrimpeur2

@davidof
@pblakeney

Thanks for the info. I guess at the moment then there are still a number of possible scenarios that could play out.

It seems that either a Russian withdrawal or a full scale occupation may prove to be the least likely outcomes, at least in the short term. I guess a longer strategic battle for control of certain parts of Ukraine may be a more likely focus perhaps?

kingstonian

laurentian said:

I think it's because Ireland has temporary "holding centres" where the refugees can live temporarily whilst their paperwork is being completed before moving to their sponsored accommodation.

UK has no such arrangement.

Ah, ok, thanks for explaining.

thegreatdivide

MidlandsGrimpeur2 said:

@davidof
@pblakeney

Thanks for the info. I guess at the moment then there are still a number of possible scenarios that could play out.

It seems that either a Russian withdrawal or a full scale occupation may prove to be the least likely outcomes, at least in the short term. I guess a longer strategic battle for control of certain parts of Ukraine may be a more likely focus perhaps?

I reckon we’ll see an attempt at a smaller version of one of Russia’s classic Eastern Front advances.

The UF are dug into an extensive network of trenches. Russia will probably try and pummel them with artillery and aircraft for a period of time and then attempt to advance with tanks and APCs*. Problem is the artillery will have to deal with a droned up UF. Those Switchblade things look very effective. Hopefully they’ll get there in time.

*This is what an ‘organised’ Russian Army would do.

DeVlaeminck

MidlandsGrimpeur2 said:

@davidof
@pblakeney

Thanks for the info. I guess at the moment then there are still a number of possible scenarios that could play out.

It seems that either a Russian withdrawal or a full scale occupation may prove to be the least likely outcomes, at least in the short term. I guess a longer strategic battle for control of certain parts of Ukraine may be a more likely focus perhaps?

Yes - however poorly Russia are performing I'd still be (pleasantly) surprised if Ukraine comes out of this without losing the Donbas. Hopefully they can prevent Russia annexing the coastal region linking that up to Crimea and fight off what appears to be an imminent attack on Dnipro (sp?).

davidof

Military intercepts from Russian soldiers phoning home:

"I'm starting to feel like we are the bad guys in all of this."

rick_chasey

thegreatdivide said:

MidlandsGrimpeur2 said:

@davidof
@pblakeney

Thanks for the info. I guess at the moment then there are still a number of possible scenarios that could play out.

It seems that either a Russian withdrawal or a full scale occupation may prove to be the least likely outcomes, at least in the short term. I guess a longer strategic battle for control of certain parts of Ukraine may be a more likely focus perhaps?

I reckon we’ll see an attempt at a smaller version of one of Russia’s classic Eastern Front advances.

The UF are dug into an extensive network of trenches. Russia will probably try and pummel them with artillery and aircraft for a period of time and then attempt to advance with tanks and APCs*. Problem is the artillery will have to deal with a droned up UF. Those Switchblade things look very effective. Hopefully they’ll get there in time.

*This is what an ‘organised’ Russian Army would do.

Frontal assaults are quite expensive for the attacker aren't they?

focuszing723

rick_chasey said:

thegreatdivide said:

MidlandsGrimpeur2 said:

@davidof
@pblakeney

Thanks for the info. I guess at the moment then there are still a number of possible scenarios that could play out.

It seems that either a Russian withdrawal or a full scale occupation may prove to be the least likely outcomes, at least in the short term. I guess a longer strategic battle for control of certain parts of Ukraine may be a more likely focus perhaps?

I reckon we’ll see an attempt at a smaller version of one of Russia’s classic Eastern Front advances.

The UF are dug into an extensive network of trenches. Russia will probably try and pummel them with artillery and aircraft for a period of time and then attempt to advance with tanks and APCs*. Problem is the artillery will have to deal with a droned up UF. Those Switchblade things look very effective. Hopefully they’ll get there in time.

*This is what an ‘organised’ Russian Army would do.

Frontal assaults are quite expensive for the attacker aren't they?

I don't know? Knowing the way of the World, Will Smith might make even more money per film now.

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

thegreatdivide said:

MidlandsGrimpeur2 said:

@davidof
@pblakeney

Thanks for the info. I guess at the moment then there are still a number of possible scenarios that could play out.

It seems that either a Russian withdrawal or a full scale occupation may prove to be the least likely outcomes, at least in the short term. I guess a longer strategic battle for control of certain parts of Ukraine may be a more likely focus perhaps?

I reckon we’ll see an attempt at a smaller version of one of Russia’s classic Eastern Front advances.

The UF are dug into an extensive network of trenches. Russia will probably try and pummel them with artillery and aircraft for a period of time and then attempt to advance with tanks and APCs*. Problem is the artillery will have to deal with a droned up UF. Those Switchblade things look very effective. Hopefully they’ll get there in time.

*This is what an ‘organised’ Russian Army would do.

Frontal assaults are quite expensive for the attacker aren't they?

Eastern front was about destroying each others forces at a pace where attrition is above replacement rate.
A common tactic was also mass encirclement, which if I was Russia I would be trying to cut off the Ukraine army in the Donbass region. Just the possibility would mean they had to pull back.

rick_chasey

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

thegreatdivide said:

MidlandsGrimpeur2 said:

@davidof
@pblakeney

Thanks for the info. I guess at the moment then there are still a number of possible scenarios that could play out.

It seems that either a Russian withdrawal or a full scale occupation may prove to be the least likely outcomes, at least in the short term. I guess a longer strategic battle for control of certain parts of Ukraine may be a more likely focus perhaps?

I reckon we’ll see an attempt at a smaller version of one of Russia’s classic Eastern Front advances.

The UF are dug into an extensive network of trenches. Russia will probably try and pummel them with artillery and aircraft for a period of time and then attempt to advance with tanks and APCs*. Problem is the artillery will have to deal with a droned up UF. Those Switchblade things look very effective. Hopefully they’ll get there in time.

*This is what an ‘organised’ Russian Army would do.

Frontal assaults are quite expensive for the attacker aren't they?

Eastern front was about destroying each others forces at a pace where attrition is above replacement rate.
A common tactic was also mass encirclement, which if I was Russia I would be trying to cut off the Ukraine army in the Donbass region. Just the possibility would mean they had to pull back.

Wouldn’t a Donbas encirclement leave a Russian flank exposed to Ukrainian troops moving from Kyiv to the region?

surrey_commuter

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

thegreatdivide said:

MidlandsGrimpeur2 said:

@davidof
@pblakeney

Thanks for the info. I guess at the moment then there are still a number of possible scenarios that could play out.

It seems that either a Russian withdrawal or a full scale occupation may prove to be the least likely outcomes, at least in the short term. I guess a longer strategic battle for control of certain parts of Ukraine may be a more likely focus perhaps?

I reckon we’ll see an attempt at a smaller version of one of Russia’s classic Eastern Front advances.

The UF are dug into an extensive network of trenches. Russia will probably try and pummel them with artillery and aircraft for a period of time and then attempt to advance with tanks and APCs*. Problem is the artillery will have to deal with a droned up UF. Those Switchblade things look very effective. Hopefully they’ll get there in time.

*This is what an ‘organised’ Russian Army would do.

Frontal assaults are quite expensive for the attacker aren't they?

Eastern front was about destroying each others forces at a pace where attrition is above replacement rate.
A common tactic was also mass encirclement, which if I was Russia I would be trying to cut off the Ukraine army in the Donbass region. Just the possibility would mean they had to pull back.

Wouldn’t a Donbas encirclement leave a Russian flank exposed to Ukrainian troops moving from Kyiv to the region?

It would be a huge gamble to leave a lot of troops in the Donbass region and would threaten supply logistics.

To me the obvious tactic would be to (at least pose a credible threat) to use the Dniepr river as a natural defensive line

darkhairedlord

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

thegreatdivide said:

MidlandsGrimpeur2 said:

@davidof
@pblakeney

Thanks for the info. I guess at the moment then there are still a number of possible scenarios that could play out.

It seems that either a Russian withdrawal or a full scale occupation may prove to be the least likely outcomes, at least in the short term. I guess a longer strategic battle for control of certain parts of Ukraine may be a more likely focus perhaps?

I reckon we’ll see an attempt at a smaller version of one of Russia’s classic Eastern Front advances.

The UF are dug into an extensive network of trenches. Russia will probably try and pummel them with artillery and aircraft for a period of time and then attempt to advance with tanks and APCs*. Problem is the artillery will have to deal with a droned up UF. Those Switchblade things look very effective. Hopefully they’ll get there in time.

*This is what an ‘organised’ Russian Army would do.

Frontal assaults are quite expensive for the attacker aren't they?

Eastern front was about destroying each others forces at a pace where attrition is above replacement rate.
A common tactic was also mass encirclement, which if I was Russia I would be trying to cut off the Ukraine army in the Donbass region. Just the possibility would mean they had to pull back.

Wouldn’t a Donbas encirclement leave a Russian flank exposed to Ukrainian troops moving from Kyiv to the region?

It would be a huge gamble to leave a lot of troops in the Donbass region and would threaten supply logistics.

To me the obvious tactic would be to (at least pose a credible threat) to use the Dniepr river as a natural defensive line

No need, the Russian army is exhausted. They left the kyiv region because they were systematically destroyed. They have nothing left to redeploy.

thegreatdivide

rick_chasey said:

Wouldn’t a Donbas encirclement leave a Russian flank exposed to Ukrainian troops moving from Kyiv to the region?

Indeed. I mentioned previously that I suspect those newly retaken areas of the North will now be managed by the civilian defence lot as it’s become more of a humanitarian issue, freeing up the Kyiv UF to head down and support the elite units already well entrenched in the Donbas. Keep the Kyiv UF lot in reserve, and if the Elites do get surrounded you hit that exposed flank with the Kyiv UF. If the guys surrounded in Mariupol can hold out for six weeks, the Elites can handle themselves for a bit.

MattFalle

darkhairedlord said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

thegreatdivide said:

MidlandsGrimpeur2 said:

@davidof
@pblakeney

Thanks for the info. I guess at the moment then there are still a number of possible scenarios that could play out.

It seems that either a Russian withdrawal or a full scale occupation may prove to be the least likely outcomes, at least in the short term. I guess a longer strategic battle for control of certain parts of Ukraine may be a more likely focus perhaps?

I reckon we’ll see an attempt at a smaller version of one of Russia’s classic Eastern Front advances.

The UF are dug into an extensive network of trenches. Russia will probably try and pummel them with artillery and aircraft for a period of time and then attempt to advance with tanks and APCs*. Problem is the artillery will have to deal with a droned up UF. Those Switchblade things look very effective. Hopefully they’ll get there in time.

*This is what an ‘organised’ Russian Army would do.

Frontal assaults are quite expensive for the attacker aren't they?

Eastern front was about destroying each others forces at a pace where attrition is above replacement rate.
A common tactic was also mass encirclement, which if I was Russia I would be trying to cut off the Ukraine army in the Donbass region. Just the possibility would mean they had to pull back.

Wouldn’t a Donbas encirclement leave a Russian flank exposed to Ukrainian troops moving from Kyiv to the region?

It would be a huge gamble to leave a lot of troops in the Donbass region and would threaten supply logistics.

To me the obvious tactic would be to (at least pose a credible threat) to use the Dniepr river as a natural defensive line

No need, the Russian army is exhausted. They left the kyiv region because they were systematically destroyed. They have nothing left to redeploy.

not quite.

they have about 100,00 other troops, they have Wagner, they have random mercernaries, they have favours owing from Assad, they have other assets tied up in Syria, Somalia, Mali, Sudan, other parts of Eastern Europe, all over the shop.

What the Ukranians are trying to do is smash them so badly they run out of logistics and assets - men don't matter to Putin, but if you have no tanks/guns/etc there's nothing you can do.

surrey_commuter

darkhairedlord said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

surrey_commuter said:

rick_chasey said:

thegreatdivide said:

MidlandsGrimpeur2 said:

@davidof
@pblakeney

Thanks for the info. I guess at the moment then there are still a number of possible scenarios that could play out.

It seems that either a Russian withdrawal or a full scale occupation may prove to be the least likely outcomes, at least in the short term. I guess a longer strategic battle for control of certain parts of Ukraine may be a more likely focus perhaps?

I reckon we’ll see an attempt at a smaller version of one of Russia’s classic Eastern Front advances.

The UF are dug into an extensive network of trenches. Russia will probably try and pummel them with artillery and aircraft for a period of time and then attempt to advance with tanks and APCs*. Problem is the artillery will have to deal with a droned up UF. Those Switchblade things look very effective. Hopefully they’ll get there in time.

*This is what an ‘organised’ Russian Army would do.

Frontal assaults are quite expensive for the attacker aren't they?

Eastern front was about destroying each others forces at a pace where attrition is above replacement rate.
A common tactic was also mass encirclement, which if I was Russia I would be trying to cut off the Ukraine army in the Donbass region. Just the possibility would mean they had to pull back.

Wouldn’t a Donbas encirclement leave a Russian flank exposed to Ukrainian troops moving from Kyiv to the region?

It would be a huge gamble to leave a lot of troops in the Donbass region and would threaten supply logistics.

To me the obvious tactic would be to (at least pose a credible threat) to use the Dniepr river as a natural defensive line

No need, the Russian army is exhausted. They left the kyiv region because they were systematically destroyed. They have nothing left to redeploy.

do you have a link to a good source?

rick_chasey

I read something about roughly 25-30 or so Russian BTG's basically being so depleated/tired that they're out of action, about a 5th of the invasion force.

I can't seem to read much about Ukrainian losses?

MattFalle

rick_chasey said:

I read something about roughly 25-30 or so Russian BTG's basically being so depleated/tired that they're out of action, about a 5th of the invasion force.

I can't seem to read much about Ukrainian losses?

1:5 is the last estimate but they currently have more armour than what they started with.

rick_chasey

MattFalle said:

rick_chasey said:

I read something about roughly 25-30 or so Russian BTG's basically being so depleated/tired that they're out of action, about a 5th of the invasion force.

I can't seem to read much about Ukrainian losses?

1:5 is the last estimate but they currently have more armour than what they started with.

Any idea what that is as a proportion?

MattFalle

.

rick_chasey said:

MattFalle said:

rick_chasey said:

I read something about roughly 25-30 or so Russian BTG's basically being so depleated/tired that they're out of action, about a 5th of the invasion force.

I can't seem to read much about Ukrainian losses?

1:5 is the last estimate but they currently have more armour than what they started with.

Any idea what that is as a proportion?

not a clue. sorry. i drill holes in people, AGC do numbers.

I've been listening to Talk Sport a lot recently just to put noise into the room to distract my head. They keep on going on about odds, so I Wiki'd odds.

Not a clue. No idea at all what they are on about.

I told TDV she never has to worry about me being a gambler. She just called me a fat head idiot and told me to shut up and stop breathing for a while.

focuszing723

The Trump/Biden threads are just bygone memories at the moment. The Biden thread was always going to struggle though, a trip, wrong word here or there...

darkhairedlord

rick_chasey said:

I read something about roughly 25-30 or so Russian BTG's basically being so depleated/tired that they're out of action, about a 5th of the invasion force.

I can't seem to read much about Ukrainian losses?

The Russians deployed about 100-120 BTGs. Each has 10 tanks 30 other fighting vehicles and a bunch of launchers, command vehicles, supply trucks etc. So about a 1000 tanks went in, by the time 10% have broken down before crossing the border you're down to 900. Ukrain claim about 400-500 tanks destroyed or out of action. So pretty bleak for the Russians as they lack training for anything more than pitched battle, advancing after a nuclear strike, or picking spuds... most of them are conscripts with chechens shooting anyone that tries to desert.

thegreatdivide

The latest tally on Oryx is:

Russia - 2609, of which: destroyed: 1352, damaged: 38, abandoned: 237, captured: 982

Of that the tanks score is:

Tanks (448, of which destroyed: 219, damaged: 6, abandoned: 41, captured: 182)

Note how many have been ‘captured’. Ukraine has lost many tanks, but they’re now well into the black with new Russian toys.

MattFalle

Av of 3 crew per tank, 1352 destroyed, so roughly 4000 bods dead/injured alone there.

not withstanding everything else thats been destroyed plus infanteers.

its just fuckinghorrendous.

pangolin

thegreatdivide said:

The latest tally on Oryx is:

Russia - 2609, of which: destroyed: 1352, damaged: 38, abandoned: 237, captured: 982

Of that the tanks score is:

Tanks (448, of which destroyed: 219, damaged: 6, abandoned: 41, captured: 182)

Note how many have been ‘captured’. Ukraine has lost many tanks, but they’re now well into the black with new Russian toys.

That captured % is comically high. Is that anything like normal, if there is a normal?

johngti

MattFalle said:

its just fuckinghorrendous.

This. Definitely. There’s no glory in war.