Donald Trump

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  • tailwindhome
    tailwindhome Posts: 19,477
    Biden takes Arizona
    “New York has the haircuts, London has the trousers, but Belfast has the reason!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    joe2019 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Looks like Trump thinks he's lost.

    Counting all the votes according to the rules is a way of disenfranchising people. Interesting concept.

    Well, the bookies think he's won - implied chance Trump 65.2%. Biden 27.8%.

    They're not often wrong!
    It’s bouncing around all over the place
    _
  • joe2019
    joe2019 Posts: 1,338
    rick_chasey said:

    joe2019 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Looks like Trump thinks he's lost.

    Counting all the votes according to the rules is a way of disenfranchising people. Interesting concept.

    Well, the bookies think he's won - implied chance Trump 65.2%. Biden 27.8%.

    They're not often wrong!
    It’s bouncing around all over the place
    Trump will win from here.

  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    joe2019 said:

    rick_chasey said:

    joe2019 said:

    kingstongraham said:

    Looks like Trump thinks he's lost.

    Counting all the votes according to the rules is a way of disenfranchising people. Interesting concept.

    Well, the bookies think he's won - implied chance Trump 65.2%. Biden 27.8%.

    They're not often wrong!
    It’s bouncing around all over the place
    Trump will win from here.

    No one knows.
    _
  • focuszing723
    focuszing723 Posts: 8,195
    mrb123 said:

    Pence says they're going to Make America Great Again Again...

    Yeah, I had a good laugh at that.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,692
    Not looking good. Trump summing himself in his Tweets, on one hand claiming the system is fraudulent then declaring himself the winner.

    Coming down to Michigan and Wisconsin which are fairly close on the night but massively in favour of Boden I'm absentee voting so you can see why he is so keen to get them excluded.

    I find democrat being blue and republican as red very confusing.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,633
    Too close to be fully decided soon. This will drag on.
    I'd have preferred a landslide in either direction.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,302
    If Biden wins and doesn't get the Senate (pretty likely), America is in almost as bad a position as if Trump wins.

    Another step towards the end of an era.
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,629
    R4 were saying Trump has already received more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. The pollsters seem to have been caught out yet again.
    Whether Biden wins or not, the Democrats really need to look at themselves for failing to put Trump away.
  • Pross
    Pross Posts: 43,692
    Dorset_Boy said:

    R4 were saying Trump has already received more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. The pollsters seem to have been caught out yet again.
    Whether Biden wins or not, the Democrats really need to look at themselves for failing to put Trump away.

    The voter turnout is way higher I believe. They were saying over 2 million more votes in Texas alone so given how partisan most voters are in all countries it's not a surprise that Trump has gained more votes.

    One thing this shows is just how divided the US is, not just nationwide but also within many of the individual States. I think there's unrest ahead whoever wins and the longer it is dragged out the worse it is going to be.
  • Ben6899
    Ben6899 Posts: 9,686
    The only positive, from a Trump win, is that the UK doesn't leap to #1 in the shitshow league.
    Ben

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  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,629
    Another factor the Democrats haven't 'got' is that the vast majority of votes cast for Trump are in support of him, so people will queue for a long time to cast a Trump vote.
    A very significant number of votes for Biden are in reality votes against Trump, not for Biden, so people won't spent 2 or 3 hours queuing to vote for Biden.

    Again it seems the Democrats have come up with the wrong candidate.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,302
    And we might get to see a major country trying out the Great Barrington approach and seeing how that works out.
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,302
    Dorset_Boy said:

    R4 were saying Trump has already received more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. The pollsters seem to have been caught out yet again.
    Whether Biden wins or not, the Democrats really need to look at themselves for failing to put Trump away.

    If more people have gone out and voted for Trump after seeing what he's like as President than did before he was president, what can the Democrats do about that? They put up the least scary, least left wing candidate they possibly could. If they'd had anyone else available, the inevitable loss would have been put down to that candidate's deficiencies.

    Lots of Americans just like having a semi detached wannabe autocrat who doesn't care about anything except himself in charge - doesn't make sense to me, but that's the reality.

    There'll be a Trump on the ballot in 2024 regardless of whether he wins or loses this one.
  • Jezyboy
    Jezyboy Posts: 3,678
    Dorset_Boy said:

    Another factor the Democrats haven't 'got' is that the vast majority of votes cast for Trump are in support of him, so people will queue for a long time to cast a Trump vote.
    A very significant number of votes for Biden are in reality votes against Trump, not for Biden, so people won't spent 2 or 3 hours queuing to vote for Biden.

    Again it seems the Democrats have come up with the wrong candidate.

    I think you are well under playing how anti trump the anti trumpers are there.

  • skyblueamateur
    skyblueamateur Posts: 1,498
    Jezyboy said:

    Dorset_Boy said:

    Another factor the Democrats haven't 'got' is that the vast majority of votes cast for Trump are in support of him, so people will queue for a long time to cast a Trump vote.
    A very significant number of votes for Biden are in reality votes against Trump, not for Biden, so people won't spent 2 or 3 hours queuing to vote for Biden.

    Again it seems the Democrats have come up with the wrong candidate.

    I think you are well under playing how anti trump the anti trumpers are there.

    It shows what a awful state of affairs the Democrats are in if they're voting on a purely anti-Trump basis rather then for a passionate belief in Biden.
  • pblakeney
    pblakeney Posts: 27,633
    It shows what a awful state of affairs the Democrats are in that Biden was their best.
    The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
    I am not sure. You have no chance.
    Veronese68 wrote:
    PB is the most sensible person on here.
  • Ben6899
    Ben6899 Posts: 9,686
    Jezyboy said:

    Dorset_Boy said:

    Another factor the Democrats haven't 'got' is that the vast majority of votes cast for Trump are in support of him, so people will queue for a long time to cast a Trump vote.
    A very significant number of votes for Biden are in reality votes against Trump, not for Biden, so people won't spent 2 or 3 hours queuing to vote for Biden.

    Again it seems the Democrats have come up with the wrong candidate.

    I think you are well under playing how anti trump the anti trumpers are there.


    Looking at the numbers, I don't think he is. Unfortunately.
    Ben

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  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    kingstongraham said:

    Dorset_Boy said:

    R4 were saying Trump has already received more votes in 2020 than he did in 2016. The pollsters seem to have been caught out yet again.
    Whether Biden wins or not, the Democrats really need to look at themselves for failing to put Trump away.

    If more people have gone out and voted for Trump after seeing what he's like as President than did before he was president, what can the Democrats do about that? They put up the least scary, least left wing candidate they possibly could. If they'd had anyone else available, the inevitable loss would have been put down to that candidate's deficiencies.

    Lots of Americans just like having a semi detached wannabe autocrat who doesn't care about anything except himself in charge - doesn't make sense to me, but that's the reality.

    There'll be a Trump on the ballot in 2024 regardless of whether he wins or loses this one.
    You don't appreciate how tribal American politics is. An attitude like SteveO is the norm over there.
  • Ben6899
    Ben6899 Posts: 9,686
    So I don't know much about the voting system and have been doing some reading (that's what normal people do when they don't know enough, but I suppose recognising that lack of knowledge is the first step).

    I understand that the early/postal votes are yet to be counted, is that right?

    Can we hope that postal votes will mostly be from ex-pats and therefore possibly have a democrat lean?

    I say "hopefully", I'm not going to be as upset as Coopster thinks, but I do think it's better for the US population, as a whole, if we don't have four more years of Trump.
    Ben

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  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,302
    Ben6899 said:

    So I don't know much about the voting system and have been doing some reading (that's what normal people do when they don't know enough, but I suppose recognising that lack of knowledge is the first step).

    I understand that the early/postal votes are yet to be counted, is that right?

    Can we hope that postal votes will mostly be from ex-pats and therefore possibly have a democrat lean?

    I say "hopefully", I'm not going to be as upset as Coopster thinks, but I do think it's better for the US population, as a whole, if we don't have four more years of Trump.

    The postal votes are only yet to be counted in some states. In most of those (Pennsylvania particularly), it is Republicans who insisted that they not start counting those until election day, which is why the results aren't in. In other states, counting started a few days ago, so they can announce more accurate results. It's a strategy now to use their own objections to early counting, and combine it with an objection to late counting to try to cast doubt.

    This year, there are way more postal ballots than previously, because of the pandemic. A lot of states newly made it possible for anyone who wanted to vote by mail.

    There is an assumption that these will skew Democratic, because Trump has been railing about voting by mail being open to fraud (despite voting by mail himself in the past).
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,629
    They also allow postal votes to be submitted on the day of the election, so some of those votes won't be received for 2, 3 4 days, or longer if coming from overseas.
    As KG says, different states have different rules as to when votes can be counted.
    I think that in the UK, postal votes have to have been received before polling day which seems a more sensible situation.
  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,629
    Jezyboy said:

    Dorset_Boy said:

    Another factor the Democrats haven't 'got' is that the vast majority of votes cast for Trump are in support of him, so people will queue for a long time to cast a Trump vote.
    A very significant number of votes for Biden are in reality votes against Trump, not for Biden, so people won't spent 2 or 3 hours queuing to vote for Biden.

    Again it seems the Democrats have come up with the wrong candidate.

    I think you are well under playing how anti trump the anti trumpers are there.

    Sadly you are wrong - all the analysis of polling intentions over the last few weeks was anticipating this, and the actual polling confirms it.
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,660
    No point in big proclamations yet. It’s close so you’ll just have to be patient.
    _
  • Ben6899
    Ben6899 Posts: 9,686
    Thanks Graham and DorsetBoy for the additional information.
    Ben

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  • Dorset_Boy
    Dorset_Boy Posts: 7,629
    rick_chasey said:

    No point in big proclamations yet. It’s close so you’ll just have to be patient.

    Don't think anyone is making any big proclamations on here!
  • kingstongraham
    kingstongraham Posts: 28,302
    Biden just moved ahead in Wisconsin and Nevada. It's still changing, nothing is set yet.
  • DeVlaeminck
    DeVlaeminck Posts: 9,112
    edited November 2020
    Trump looks likely to lose Michigan when the Detroit votes are fully in - does that leave him with a realistic chance ?

    Edit - Looking at the figures I'd be pretty confident of Biden winning from here. Famous last words.
    [Castle Donington Ladies FC - going up in '22]
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Ben6899 said:

    Thanks Graham and DorsetBoy for the additional information.

    there were 80 million absentee ballots cast. Talking to some yanks yesterday they were all sent absentee ballots so just had to fill it in and post it off (ie no need to register) I do not know if this was state specific.
  • mrb123
    mrb123 Posts: 4,845
    https://youtu.be/cE-zp0rQ3BA
    Interesting piece from Sam Harris on the appeal of Trump.

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