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Comments
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/landlords-can-get-mortgage-with-no-income-housing-market/
Telegraph questioning BTL prevalence and lending.0 -
that is not how they price fixd term dealsrick_chasey said:
TBF they offered me a 5 year fixed in 2020 at 1.9% so they don't have a great track record in accurately calling rate moves anyway.surrey_commuter said:
On a similar note I saw a note that people are opting for SVR over fixes as they think rates will fall back and don't want to be stuck on a higher rate. That somebody thought they were clever enough to forecast rates lower in undr two years time is truly frightening.0 -
The author seems to be unaware that rental properties provide income by way of rent.morstar said:https://www.telegraph.co.uk/personal-banking/mortgages/landlords-can-get-mortgage-with-no-income-housing-market/
Telegraph questioning BTL prevalence and lending.0 -
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.0 -
Big news in The Telegraph
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Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.0 -
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time0 -
Balls. At 4% and a single earner, that basically wipes out any growth i've had in disposable income over the last 3 years.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time0 -
Well at least you've had some growth to be wiped out.rick_chasey said:
Balls. At 4% and a single earner, that basically wipes out any growth i've had in disposable income over the last 3 years.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition1 -
The best strategy IMO is to pay down as much of the principal as possible (if you can make overpayments). Mine 'unfixes' in October '26 and by that time it should be at a level that any interest hike won't be a big problem."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0
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Useful insight. Just need to prepare to bend over, grease myself up and aim for penetration.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time
Can't remember if I mentioned but my repayments are going to double.0 -
I had to look up that article from the bonkers headline. That's by a sitting MP. Whatever the result of the next election, there will be a massive churn in MPs, and I strongly hope that we get some adults in the new intake, whichever party.kingstongraham said:Big news in The Telegraph
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Yeah I shouldn’t complain. I’ve just sucked up low pay and been very patient with a view to get the big bucks down the road and just when I am beginning to hit the steeper part of the curve I get whacked and it’ll put me back in where I was.rjsterry said:
Well at least you've had some growth to be wiped out.rick_chasey said:
Balls. At 4% and a single earner, that basically wipes out any growth i've had in disposable income over the last 3 years.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time
If the rental market wasn’t so mental I’d be tempted to cash in the equity gain in the house, rent till rates fall and get back in but I think even after rate rises I’ll be ahead if I stick with the house.0 -
Latest yield curve (forwards) for anyone looking for a forecast. SONIA should be slightly higher than gilts, so I'm a bit confused by the spread, but anyway it should give an idea of market expectations.
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If even thinking of doing this then bear in mind that we could go back to long term interest rates of 4%, so as the current rate is 5% there may not be a lot of upside.rick_chasey said:
Yeah I shouldn’t complain. I’ve just sucked up low pay and been very patient with a view to get the big bucks down the road and just when I am beginning to hit the steeper part of the curve I get whacked and it’ll put me back in where I was.rjsterry said:
Well at least you've had some growth to be wiped out.rick_chasey said:
Balls. At 4% and a single earner, that basically wipes out any growth i've had in disposable income over the last 3 years.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time
If the rental market wasn’t so mental I’d be tempted to cash in the equity gain in the house, rent till rates fall and get back in but I think even after rate rises I’ll be ahead if I stick with the house.0 -
I guess the royalties from her hits 30 years ago aren't what they were.TheBigBean said:Latest yield curve (forwards) for anyone looking for a forecast. SONIA should be slightly higher than gilts, so I'm a bit confused by the spread, but anyway it should give an idea of market expectations.
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I guess so. My entire working life they're been below 2% bar the last year, so I guess I need to change my mentality.surrey_commuter said:
If even thinking of doing this then bear in mind that we could go back to long term interest rates of 4%, so as the current rate is 5% there may not be a lot of upside.rick_chasey said:
Yeah I shouldn’t complain. I’ve just sucked up low pay and been very patient with a view to get the big bucks down the road and just when I am beginning to hit the steeper part of the curve I get whacked and it’ll put me back in where I was.rjsterry said:
Well at least you've had some growth to be wiped out.rick_chasey said:
Balls. At 4% and a single earner, that basically wipes out any growth i've had in disposable income over the last 3 years.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time
If the rental market wasn’t so mental I’d be tempted to cash in the equity gain in the house, rent till rates fall and get back in but I think even after rate rises I’ll be ahead if I stick with the house.
The amount you need to borrow to live anywhere half decent is brutal, especially at those rates.
Even in low 6 figures as the sole earner with kids you're not gonna live a particularly good life, unless you can earn that outside the South East - fair play if you can, I can't.0 -
Seperately I am delighted savings rates were basically zero the entire time I was saving for a house and 5 years into the house I now get smacked with higher rates.
Lovely.0 -
on the bright side they are still below inflation and before you would have needed to have £100k+ in cash to attract the attention of the taxmanrick_chasey said:Seperately I am delighted savings rates were basically zero the entire time I was saving for a house and 5 years into the house I now get smacked with higher rates.
Lovely.0 -
I think you are being too kind with "insight" but the biggest factor and leading indicator will be the stickiness of inflation and what other central banks are doing.shirley_basso said:
Useful insight. Just need to prepare to bend over, grease myself up and aim for penetration.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time
Can't remember if I mentioned but my repayments are going to double.
If you switch from repayment to interest only you will see your monthly figure drop substantially0 -
I have been predicting a house market crash for 25 years, but if you were confident of that happening based upon mortgage costs at 4% then you could look to take advantage.rick_chasey said:
I guess so. My entire working life they're been below 2% bar the last year, so I guess I need to change my mentality.surrey_commuter said:
If even thinking of doing this then bear in mind that we could go back to long term interest rates of 4%, so as the current rate is 5% there may not be a lot of upside.rick_chasey said:
Yeah I shouldn’t complain. I’ve just sucked up low pay and been very patient with a view to get the big bucks down the road and just when I am beginning to hit the steeper part of the curve I get whacked and it’ll put me back in where I was.rjsterry said:
Well at least you've had some growth to be wiped out.rick_chasey said:
Balls. At 4% and a single earner, that basically wipes out any growth i've had in disposable income over the last 3 years.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time
If the rental market wasn’t so mental I’d be tempted to cash in the equity gain in the house, rent till rates fall and get back in but I think even after rate rises I’ll be ahead if I stick with the house.
The amount you need to borrow to live anywhere half decent is brutal, especially at those rates.
Even in low 6 figures as the sole earner with kids you're not gonna live a particularly good life, unless you can earn that outside the South East - fair play if you can, I can't.
In past property recessions the headline drop hides a lot of nuance. Good houses that tick all the boxes will fall a lot less and then buy somewhere on a forced sale.0 -
Well beyond the GFC you're basically been wrong for a quarter of a century, so perhaps I should not listen to you so muchsurrey_commuter said:
I have been predicting a house market crash for 25 years, but if you were confident of that happening based upon mortgage costs at 4% then you could look to take advantage.rick_chasey said:
I guess so. My entire working life they're been below 2% bar the last year, so I guess I need to change my mentality.surrey_commuter said:
If even thinking of doing this then bear in mind that we could go back to long term interest rates of 4%, so as the current rate is 5% there may not be a lot of upside.rick_chasey said:
Yeah I shouldn’t complain. I’ve just sucked up low pay and been very patient with a view to get the big bucks down the road and just when I am beginning to hit the steeper part of the curve I get whacked and it’ll put me back in where I was.rjsterry said:
Well at least you've had some growth to be wiped out.rick_chasey said:
Balls. At 4% and a single earner, that basically wipes out any growth i've had in disposable income over the last 3 years.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time
If the rental market wasn’t so mental I’d be tempted to cash in the equity gain in the house, rent till rates fall and get back in but I think even after rate rises I’ll be ahead if I stick with the house.
The amount you need to borrow to live anywhere half decent is brutal, especially at those rates.
Even in low 6 figures as the sole earner with kids you're not gonna live a particularly good life, unless you can earn that outside the South East - fair play if you can, I can't.
In past property recessions the headline drop hides a lot of nuance. Good houses that tick all the boxes will fall a lot less and then buy somewhere on a forced sale.
I suspect if we get a sh!ttonne of house building in the next decade then prices may become more sensitive to rates, but I don't think we're there yet.0 -
Rough isn't it. My salary has doubled since we bought our first place 4 years ago but I can't see us moving soon. On the bright side I feel smug about not trading up a year or so ago.rick_chasey said:
Balls. At 4% and a single earner, that basically wipes out any growth i've had in disposable income over the last 3 years.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time- Genesis Croix de Fer
- Dolan Tuono0 -
I'd feel better if I'd chosen a house that suited a family, rather than finding out I was gonna be a father 4 days after I got the keys. It's fine as a 3, but if the family gets any bigger i'm gonna feel like i'm living in some kind of slum.pangolin said:
Rough isn't it. My salary has doubled since we bought our first place 4 years ago but I can't see us moving soon. On the bright side I feel smug about not trading up a year or so ago.rick_chasey said:
Balls. At 4% and a single earner, that basically wipes out any growth i've had in disposable income over the last 3 years.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time
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Absolutely not, I'd rather suck it up and keep the repayments up.surrey_commuter said:
I think you are being too kind with "insight" but the biggest factor and leading indicator will be the stickiness of inflation and what other central banks are doing.shirley_basso said:
Useful insight. Just need to prepare to bend over, grease myself up and aim for penetration.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time
Can't remember if I mentioned but my repayments are going to double.
If you switch from repayment to interest only you will see your monthly figure drop substantially
Unlike Rick, I have no need to move. Just need to ride it out and get promoted.0 -
Kind of my point, the housing market is surprising resilient as most people stay put.rick_chasey said:
Well beyond the GFC you're basically been wrong for a quarter of a century, so perhaps I should not listen to you so muchsurrey_commuter said:
I have been predicting a house market crash for 25 years, but if you were confident of that happening based upon mortgage costs at 4% then you could look to take advantage.rick_chasey said:
I guess so. My entire working life they're been below 2% bar the last year, so I guess I need to change my mentality.surrey_commuter said:
If even thinking of doing this then bear in mind that we could go back to long term interest rates of 4%, so as the current rate is 5% there may not be a lot of upside.rick_chasey said:
Yeah I shouldn’t complain. I’ve just sucked up low pay and been very patient with a view to get the big bucks down the road and just when I am beginning to hit the steeper part of the curve I get whacked and it’ll put me back in where I was.rjsterry said:
Well at least you've had some growth to be wiped out.rick_chasey said:
Balls. At 4% and a single earner, that basically wipes out any growth i've had in disposable income over the last 3 years.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time
If the rental market wasn’t so mental I’d be tempted to cash in the equity gain in the house, rent till rates fall and get back in but I think even after rate rises I’ll be ahead if I stick with the house.
The amount you need to borrow to live anywhere half decent is brutal, especially at those rates.
Even in low 6 figures as the sole earner with kids you're not gonna live a particularly good life, unless you can earn that outside the South East - fair play if you can, I can't.
In past property recessions the headline drop hides a lot of nuance. Good houses that tick all the boxes will fall a lot less and then buy somewhere on a forced sale.
I suspect if we get a sh!ttonne of house building in the next decade then prices may become more sensitive to rates, but I don't think we're there yet.
Could be different this time as so many people are seeing such huge increases and some of them will have bought in Rishi's covid surge so could be facing negative equity0 -
The numbers are bigger but welcome to Boomer world! You are effectively skint but your house value rises and the next generations despise you for it. 🤣rick_chasey said:
I'd feel better if I'd chosen a house that suited a family, rather than finding out I was gonna be a father 4 days after I got the keys. It's fine as a 3, but if the family gets any bigger i'm gonna feel like i'm living in some kind of slum.pangolin said:
Rough isn't it. My salary has doubled since we bought our first place 4 years ago but I can't see us moving soon. On the bright side I feel smug about not trading up a year or so ago.rick_chasey said:
Balls. At 4% and a single earner, that basically wipes out any growth i've had in disposable income over the last 3 years.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years timeThe above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.2 -
It’d be boomer world if my house was twice the size.pblakeney said:
The numbers are bigger but welcome to Boomer world! You are effectively skint but your house value rises and the next generations despise you for it. 🤣rick_chasey said:
I'd feel better if I'd chosen a house that suited a family, rather than finding out I was gonna be a father 4 days after I got the keys. It's fine as a 3, but if the family gets any bigger i'm gonna feel like i'm living in some kind of slum.pangolin said:
Rough isn't it. My salary has doubled since we bought our first place 4 years ago but I can't see us moving soon. On the bright side I feel smug about not trading up a year or so ago.rick_chasey said:
Balls. At 4% and a single earner, that basically wipes out any growth i've had in disposable income over the last 3 years.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time0 -
rick_chasey said:
Well beyond the GFC you're basically been wrong for a quarter of a century, so perhaps I should not listen to you so muchsurrey_commuter said:
I have been predicting a house market crash for 25 years, but if you were confident of that happening based upon mortgage costs at 4% then you could look to take advantage.rick_chasey said:
I guess so. My entire working life they're been below 2% bar the last year, so I guess I need to change my mentality.surrey_commuter said:
If even thinking of doing this then bear in mind that we could go back to long term interest rates of 4%, so as the current rate is 5% there may not be a lot of upside.rick_chasey said:
Yeah I shouldn’t complain. I’ve just sucked up low pay and been very patient with a view to get the big bucks down the road and just when I am beginning to hit the steeper part of the curve I get whacked and it’ll put me back in where I was.rjsterry said:
Well at least you've had some growth to be wiped out.rick_chasey said:
Balls. At 4% and a single earner, that basically wipes out any growth i've had in disposable income over the last 3 years.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time
If the rental market wasn’t so mental I’d be tempted to cash in the equity gain in the house, rent till rates fall and get back in but I think even after rate rises I’ll be ahead if I stick with the house.
The amount you need to borrow to live anywhere half decent is brutal, especially at those rates.
Even in low 6 figures as the sole earner with kids you're not gonna live a particularly good life, unless you can earn that outside the South East - fair play if you can, I can't.
In past property recessions the headline drop hides a lot of nuance. Good houses that tick all the boxes will fall a lot less and then buy somewhere on a forced sale.
I suspect if we get a sh!ttonne of house building in the next decade then prices may become more sensitive to rates, but I don't think we're there yet.
I can't really see how (many) people are getting on to the ladder with current rates and current values though. Particularly in the SE.
Eventually that has to have an impact.0 -
But if there is no crash and prices slip back at 5% pa and people get 5-10%pa payrises then after 5 years that is a big market correctionJezyboy said:rick_chasey said:
Well beyond the GFC you're basically been wrong for a quarter of a century, so perhaps I should not listen to you so muchsurrey_commuter said:
I have been predicting a house market crash for 25 years, but if you were confident of that happening based upon mortgage costs at 4% then you could look to take advantage.rick_chasey said:
I guess so. My entire working life they're been below 2% bar the last year, so I guess I need to change my mentality.surrey_commuter said:
If even thinking of doing this then bear in mind that we could go back to long term interest rates of 4%, so as the current rate is 5% there may not be a lot of upside.rick_chasey said:
Yeah I shouldn’t complain. I’ve just sucked up low pay and been very patient with a view to get the big bucks down the road and just when I am beginning to hit the steeper part of the curve I get whacked and it’ll put me back in where I was.rjsterry said:
Well at least you've had some growth to be wiped out.rick_chasey said:
Balls. At 4% and a single earner, that basically wipes out any growth i've had in disposable income over the last 3 years.surrey_commuter said:
So here goes my forecast.rick_chasey said:
Do you really think rates are gonna continue to hover around 6%?surrey_commuter said:
only if rates are going down.Jezyboy said:I'd guess with a more active interest rate market, SVR will become slightly more attractive anyway.
How many of these people making life changing decisions have put any effort into understanding for how how much longer rates will continue to rise, what that max rate will be, how long it will plateau for and how long it will take to go back lower than where they were six months ago.
To not take a fix they must be thinking 6 months until a full reversal with and back where they were in a year.
I'd have thought 4% after 2-3 years is not out of the question - that's a big ol' drop in repayments.
The rise to continue but more slowly for the next 1-2 years
The rates to plateau for 1-2 years
Rates to fall very slowly back to where we are now.
So I would be fixing for 5 years and expect to be back where we are today when it expires.
I would bet my house that rates won't be 4% in 2 years time
If the rental market wasn’t so mental I’d be tempted to cash in the equity gain in the house, rent till rates fall and get back in but I think even after rate rises I’ll be ahead if I stick with the house.
The amount you need to borrow to live anywhere half decent is brutal, especially at those rates.
Even in low 6 figures as the sole earner with kids you're not gonna live a particularly good life, unless you can earn that outside the South East - fair play if you can, I can't.
In past property recessions the headline drop hides a lot of nuance. Good houses that tick all the boxes will fall a lot less and then buy somewhere on a forced sale.
I suspect if we get a sh!ttonne of house building in the next decade then prices may become more sensitive to rates, but I don't think we're there yet.
I can't really see how (many) people are getting on to the ladder with current rates and current values though. Particularly in the SE.
Eventually that has to have an impact.0
