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Thatcher had a thing about the 'Nanny state'. It was all about deregulation.
I wonder if the banking crisis would have happened without deregulation.seanoconn - gruagach craic!0 -
Pinno wrote:Thatcher had a thing about the 'Nanny state'. It was all about deregulation.
I wonder if the banking crisis would have happened without deregulation."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
You mean toxic portfolio's were just down to markets and nothing to do with risky speculation and very bad practice?
Giving mortgages to those who could barely keep the payments up and bury them in amongst better debts and pretend that nothing could possibly go wrong.
It was said at the time that the biggest financial decision of your life was taking out a mortgage yet it was the least regulated.
Meanwhile, at the time, the blues endorsed Gordon Brown;'s fiscal policy. Just for the record.
We got sucked in to the American sub prime mortgage fiasco and even UK council's were investing in Icelandic organisations which were linked to those portfolio's.
Are you saying that 'it was just the markets' and such practices should never have been allowed?
Are you also saying that no amount of regulation would have prevented the crash?seanoconn - gruagach craic!0 -
Going back to OT nukes... even the nukes keen North Koreans seem to understand they're bollox and there are better ways to harm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-40297493left the forum March 20230 -
Stevo 666 wrote:Pinno wrote:Thatcher had a thing about the 'Nanny state'. It was all about deregulation.
I wonder if the banking crisis would have happened without deregulation.
Surely could have stopped a lot of the contagion, and prevented the need for bailouts to save too big to fail organisations.0 -
ugo.santalucia wrote:Going back to OT nukes... even the nukes keen North Koreans seem to understand they're bollox and there are better ways to harm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-40297493
Yes, I pointed to Mambo about 6 months that future warfare and attacks against the west would be cyber rather than physical. This was in relation to him trying to point score regarding closures of millitary barracks.
But on Nukes, we cannot wind back history and un-invent them.
So let me present this scenario to you:
The US and Russia agree to decommission all their nukes by time X. After X there is a rumour that one of the parties still has some nukes hidden away. Within a moment we are in full 'cold war' mode again as neither country can risk being militarily under powered.
So nukes in their current state provide stability and a war deterrent. Saying the you will not use a nuke neutralises that deterrent and in effect exposes your country to greater risk.
Putting yourself into a position where you may be leader of a country comes with responsilibities, one of them defending the country and its citizens. It also comes with having to make difficult and unpopular decisions. This is why JC is not someone who should be in a position to be leader of a country and thankfully the country agrees.0 -
Coopster the 1st wrote:ugo.santalucia wrote:Going back to OT nukes... even the nukes keen North Koreans seem to understand they're bollox and there are better ways to harm
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-40297493
Yes, I pointed to Mambo about 6 months that future warfare and attacks against the west would be cyber rather than physical. This was in relation to him trying to point score regarding closures of millitary barracks.
But on Nukes, we cannot wind back history and un-invent them.
So let me present this scenario to you:
The US and Russia agree to decommission all their nukes by time X. After X there is a rumour that one of the parties still has some nukes hidden away. Within a moment we are in full 'cold war' mode again as neither country can risk being militarily under powered.
So nukes in their current state provide stability and a war deterrent. Saying the you will not use a nuke neutralises that deterrent and in effect exposes your country to greater risk.
Putting yourself into a position where you may be leader of a country comes with responsilibities, one of them defending the country and its citizens. It also comes with having to make difficult and unpopular decisions. This is why JC is not someone who should be in a position to be leader of a country and thankfully the country agrees.
What scenario would you envisage that the UK alone, would have to use or threaten to use Nuclear weapons without the USA also prepared to use too?
I know in Plymouth, the closure of the Marine Commando barracks and the shrinkage of Devonport Dockyard plus the closure of Air bases down here, no maritime patrol craft and Army numbers down to historically low levels, doesn't really smack of "defending the nation"
Its a wonder how all the other countries throughout the world manage without Nuclear weapons but our little Island must have them and according to May be prepared to launch first? nothing to do with our seat on the UN security council then lol.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:bompington wrote:Time and again it has been demonstrated that reducing taxes increases government income. Time and again a new government claims that it is going to crack down on tax evasion only for it to turn out that the sums they were claiming were total hot air.
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This isn't the case though, is it?
I mean, it isn't the case at all if you take it to extremes.
If the government reduced income tax to 0.1%, do you genuinely think tax revenues would grow?Rick Chasey wrote:People like Bompington, if I may generalise, automatically assume that we are at the top point of the laffer curve.
I see no empirical evidence for that, nor indeed evidence that it isn't.
No comeback to this?0 -
Pinno wrote:You mean toxic portfolio's were just down to markets and nothing to do with risky speculation and very bad practice?
Giving mortgages to those who could barely keep the payments up and bury them in amongst better debts and pretend that nothing could possibly go wrong.
It was said at the time that the biggest financial decision of your life was taking out a mortgage yet it was the least regulated.
Meanwhile, at the time, the blues endorsed Gordon Brown;'s fiscal policy. Just for the record.
We got sucked in to the American sub prime mortgage fiasco and even UK council's were investing in Icelandic organisations which were linked to those portfolio's.
Are you saying that 'it was just the markets' and such practices should never have been allowed?
Are you also saying that no amount of regulation would have prevented the crash?
If you look at past crises, each one has been different. If you want to stop the next one due in 5/10/15 years, predict what will cause it and legislate. Not so easy without a crystal ball.
Alternatively you go for the scatter gun approach of regulating every aspect that you think might go wrong. The banks and institutions have to hire armies of compliance officers, IT support, project management and related support staff in order to comply. Who do you think ends up bearing these costs? To a large degree its the customer and probably to some degree the lower ranking employees in said institutions. Or they stop offering products because it is too expensive for them. Or in extremis they relocate functions and jobs to where regulation is less onerous. Careful what you wish for..
So next time you want a more expensive mortgage, vote for more regulation. Ironically it often those who demand that the banks are more heavily regulated are the same ones complaining about how the banks charge too much :roll:"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Here's a question Stevo - those costs of regulation you refer to - are they more or less than the cost of the crash caused by bad or missing regulation? From a public macro perspective?0
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I don't care how much stupid sh!t they get up to - as long as they aren't depending on an implicit guarantee from the government, and as long as people who have money invested know that they are. If any company is allowed to be a systemic risk, then they are living off government handouts.0
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Rick Chasey wrote:Here's a question Stevo - those costs of regulation you refer to - are they more or less than the cost of the crash caused by bad or missing regulation? From a public macro perspective?
The experience of both me (looking after a small treasury department) and some mates who work in a selection of large banks is that there really is no shortage of regulation. A good everyday example is that it is a continual source of frustration that when we are asked to do something simple like open up a new bank account with our main relationship banker for say a newly acquired subsidiary, I have to tell the business that it will take week, not days. Almost entirely due to the hoops that the bank has to jump through.
As you work with senior bankers I'm sure you get their perspective on the level of regulation - care to share any snippets?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Here's a question Stevo - those costs of regulation you refer to - are they more or less than the cost of the crash caused by bad or missing regulation? From a public macro perspective?
How can one propose how one "strikes the balance" if you don't know the answer to this?Stevo 666 wrote:
The experience of both me (looking after a small treasury department) and some mates who work in a selection of large banks is that there really is no shortage of regulation. A good everyday example is that it is a continual source of frustration that when we are asked to do something simple like open up a new bank account with our main relationship banker for say a newly acquired subsidiary, I have to tell the business that it will take week, not days. Almost entirely due to the hoops that the bank has to jump through.
As you work with senior bankers I'm sure you get their perspective on the level of regulation - care to share any snippets?
Bankers are unhappy because their profits, and thus their pay, are being reduced. They are unhappy they spend so much on regulation. They are unhappy rules around leverage are reducing their profits. They have particular issues less around the need for regulation, which they think is necessary, but more around the ability of the regulators. But then, they won't work for the regulator, who I've worked for in the past, because they don't get paid enough.
But then again, a lot of them readily admit that the earnings they had pre-crash were unsustainable, and that their profits came at a very heavy cost to the rest of the economy.
Most are pretty contrite about it, those that aren't usually find themselves on the street, looking for work.0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Here's a question Stevo - those costs of regulation you refer to - are they more or less than the cost of the crash caused by bad or missing regulation? From a public macro perspective?
The experience of both me (looking after a small treasury department) and some mates who work in a selection of large banks is that there really is no shortage of regulation. A good everyday example is that it is a continual source of frustration that when we are asked to do something simple like open up a new bank account with our main relationship banker for say a newly acquired subsidiary, I have to tell the business that it will take week, not days. Almost entirely due to the hoops that the bank has to jump through.
As you work with senior bankers I'm sure you get their perspective on the level of regulation - care to share any snippets?0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Here's a question Stevo - those costs of regulation you refer to - are they more or less than the cost of the crash caused by bad or missing regulation? From a public macro perspective?
How can one propose how one "strikes the balance" if you don't know the answer to this?Stevo 666 wrote:
The experience of both me (looking after a small treasury department) and some mates who work in a selection of large banks is that there really is no shortage of regulation. A good everyday example is that it is a continual source of frustration that when we are asked to do something simple like open up a new bank account with our main relationship banker for say a newly acquired subsidiary, I have to tell the business that it will take week, not days. Almost entirely due to the hoops that the bank has to jump through.
As you work with senior bankers I'm sure you get their perspective on the level of regulation - care to share any snippets?
Bankers are unhappy because their profits, and thus their pay, are being reduced. They are unhappy they spend so much on regulation. They are unhappy rules around leverage are reducing their profits. They have particular issues less around the need for regulation, which they think is necessary, but more around the ability of the regulators. But then, they won't work for the regulator, who I've worked for in the past, because they don't get paid enough.
But then again, a lot of them readily admit that the earnings they had pre-crash were unsustainable, and that their profits came at a very heavy cost to the rest of the economy.
Most are pretty contrite about it, those that aren't usually find themselves on the street, looking for work.
As I said to Pinno above, without a crystal ball, it simply becomes onerous and expensive for the likes of you and me."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Well given I graduated in the heat of the crash, and therefore it took me probably 12 months longer to find work than it did had I graduated the previous year, I can say with some authority that the crash for me personally cost me a whole lot more than the regulation will cost me.
And that's just a micro example.
That's before you look at the macro 'earnings scarring' that a crash inflicts on an economy. I'd hazard a guess that the cost of regulation is a few orders of magnitude less expensive to the public as a whole than a financial crash.0 -
briantrumpet wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Here's a question Stevo - those costs of regulation you refer to - are they more or less than the cost of the crash caused by bad or missing regulation? From a public macro perspective?
The experience of both me (looking after a small treasury department) and some mates who work in a selection of large banks is that there really is no shortage of regulation. A good everyday example is that it is a continual source of frustration that when we are asked to do something simple like open up a new bank account with our main relationship banker for say a newly acquired subsidiary, I have to tell the business that it will take week, not days. Almost entirely due to the hoops that the bank has to jump through.
As you work with senior bankers I'm sure you get their perspective on the level of regulation - care to share any snippets?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Well given I graduated in the heat of the crash, and therefore it took me probably 12 months longer to find work than it did had I graduated the previous year, I can say with some authority that the crash for me personally cost me a whole lot more than the regulation will cost me.
And that's just a micro example.
That's before you look at the macro 'earnings scarring' that a crash inflicts on an economy. I'd hazard a guess that the cost of regulation is a few orders of magnitude less expensive to the public as a whole than a financial crash."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Well given I graduated in the heat of the crash, and therefore it took me probably 12 months longer to find work than it did had I graduated the previous year, I can say with some authority that the crash for me personally cost me a whole lot more than the regulation will cost me.
And that's just a micro example.
That's before you look at the macro 'earnings scarring' that a crash inflicts on an economy. I'd hazard a guess that the cost of regulation is a few orders of magnitude less expensive to the public as a whole than a financial crash.
Fairly decent evidence suggesting that were the rules on leverage stricter than they were, the banks would have been able to absorb the losses that they experienced.0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:briantrumpet wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Here's a question Stevo - those costs of regulation you refer to - are they more or less than the cost of the crash caused by bad or missing regulation? From a public macro perspective?
The experience of both me (looking after a small treasury department) and some mates who work in a selection of large banks is that there really is no shortage of regulation. A good everyday example is that it is a continual source of frustration that when we are asked to do something simple like open up a new bank account with our main relationship banker for say a newly acquired subsidiary, I have to tell the business that it will take week, not days. Almost entirely due to the hoops that the bank has to jump through.
As you work with senior bankers I'm sure you get their perspective on the level of regulation - care to share any snippets?0 -
briantrumpet wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:briantrumpet wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Here's a question Stevo - those costs of regulation you refer to - are they more or less than the cost of the crash caused by bad or missing regulation? From a public macro perspective?
The experience of both me (looking after a small treasury department) and some mates who work in a selection of large banks is that there really is no shortage of regulation. A good everyday example is that it is a continual source of frustration that when we are asked to do something simple like open up a new bank account with our main relationship banker for say a newly acquired subsidiary, I have to tell the business that it will take week, not days. Almost entirely due to the hoops that the bank has to jump through.
As you work with senior bankers I'm sure you get their perspective on the level of regulation - care to share any snippets?"I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Well given I graduated in the heat of the crash, and therefore it took me probably 12 months longer to find work than it did had I graduated the previous year, I can say with some authority that the crash for me personally cost me a whole lot more than the regulation will cost me.
And that's just a micro example.
That's before you look at the macro 'earnings scarring' that a crash inflicts on an economy. I'd hazard a guess that the cost of regulation is a few orders of magnitude less expensive to the public as a whole than a financial crash.
Fairly decent evidence suggesting that were the rules on leverage stricter than they were, the banks would have been able to absorb the losses that they experienced.
If you are talking about capital requirements etc then overall not a bad idea. But that is more about being able to weather the consequences rather than being able to prevent the issue arising."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:briantrumpet wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:briantrumpet wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Here's a question Stevo - those costs of regulation you refer to - are they more or less than the cost of the crash caused by bad or missing regulation? From a public macro perspective?
The experience of both me (looking after a small treasury department) and some mates who work in a selection of large banks is that there really is no shortage of regulation. A good everyday example is that it is a continual source of frustration that when we are asked to do something simple like open up a new bank account with our main relationship banker for say a newly acquired subsidiary, I have to tell the business that it will take week, not days. Almost entirely due to the hoops that the bank has to jump through.
As you work with senior bankers I'm sure you get their perspective on the level of regulation - care to share any snippets?
I don't suppose they liked being fined £2.6bn for manipulation of foreign exchange rates, or the fines for Libor rate rigging either. I'm disinclined, therefore, to take moans from bankers as evidence that rigorous regulation is a bad thing.0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Stevo 666 wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Well given I graduated in the heat of the crash, and therefore it took me probably 12 months longer to find work than it did had I graduated the previous year, I can say with some authority that the crash for me personally cost me a whole lot more than the regulation will cost me.
And that's just a micro example.
That's before you look at the macro 'earnings scarring' that a crash inflicts on an economy. I'd hazard a guess that the cost of regulation is a few orders of magnitude less expensive to the public as a whole than a financial crash.
Fairly decent evidence suggesting that were the rules on leverage stricter than they were, the banks would have been able to absorb the losses that they experienced.
If you are talking about capital requirements etc then overall not a bad idea. But that is more about being able to weather the consequences rather than being able to prevent the issue arising.
Yeah I am. The leverage ratio.
I don't think we can expect regulators to be omniscient enough to spot the next heavily loss-making idea that can, in certain circumstances, take down a banking system. It's not practical.
You can however, make sure they weather the storm, so they don't bring down the system when they do make the inevitable f*ck up.
You can naturally regulate the obvious stuff, such as, for example if your firm is systemically important enough that it requires a bailout of some form if it fails, else the entire system collapses, then you can't do proprietary trading in any way.
You can then also regulate away things like miss-selling PPI, or colluding to fix LIBOR; that kind of thing.
Banks made a sh!t load miss-selling PPI. Hugely profitable. Doesn't mean it ought to be done, does it?0 -
A few points on this:
- Regulation that consumers, such as Steve 666, dislike is mostly KYC that is designed to prevent money laundering. I'm fairly sure there could be a more efficient system.
- Regulation that deals with capital allocation of banks (what Rick Chasey is talking about) to control M4 money supply is an evolving science. Basel III is better than Basel II which is better than Basel I. Basel I didn't differentiate between investment grade assets, Basel II did, but allowed AAA CDOs which were actually junk to be counted as AAA. The mistake was relying on rating agencies.
- Communism is the only way out of boom and bust
- The UK government didn't lose that much money on the financial crisis, so it actions were more about stability than subsidising.
- I remain a bit sceptical about LIBOR fixing. It was fairly obvious, so I think it extends beyond a few rogue traders.
- You can't regulate people's approach to risk. After a recession they are unwilling to borrow, but give it some time, and they are much more enthusiast.
- Some capable people do go to the FCA. The most disappointing aspect of the FCA is the lack of meaningful criminal prosecutions. Fining companies is a much smaller deterrent than sending people to prison.0 -
TheBigBean wrote:A few points on this:
- Regulation that consumers, such as Steve 666, dislike is mostly KYC that is designed to prevent money laundering. I'm fairly sure there could be a more efficient system.
- Regulation that deals with capital allocation of banks (what Rick Chasey is talking about) to control M4 money supply is an evolving science. Basel III is better than Basel II which is better than Basel I. Basel I didn't differentiate between investment grade assets, Basel II did, but allowed AAA CDOs which were actually junk to be counted as AAA. The mistake was relying on rating agencies.
- Communism is the only way out of boom and bust
- The UK government didn't lose that much money on the financial crisis, so it actions were more about stability than subsidising.
- I remain a bit sceptical about LIBOR fixing. It was fairly obvious, so I think it extends beyond a few rogue traders.
- You can't regulate people's approach to risk. After a recession they are unwilling to borrow, but give it some time, and they are much more enthusiast.
- Some capable people do go to the FCA. The most disappointing aspect of the FCA is the lack of meaningful criminal prosecutions. Fining companies is a much smaller deterrent than sending people to prison.
I am intrigued what you do for a living0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:How can you know that heavier regulation would have prevented the last crash?The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
What about those extortionate pay loan companies? Should they really be allowed to operate? How about some regulation there?seanoconn - gruagach craic!0
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briantrumpet wrote:Hold the front page: banks don't like being regulated.
I don't suppose they liked being fined £2.6bn for manipulation of foreign exchange rates, or the fines for Libor rate rigging either. I'm disinclined, therefore, to take moans from bankers as evidence that rigorous regulation is a bad thing."I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]0 -
Stevo 666 wrote:briantrumpet wrote:Hold the front page: banks don't like being regulated.
I don't suppose they liked being fined £2.6bn for manipulation of foreign exchange rates, or the fines for Libor rate rigging either. I'm disinclined, therefore, to take moans from bankers as evidence that rigorous regulation is a bad thing.0