BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

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  • Garry H
    Garry H Posts: 6,639
    Does anybody else see the Lib Dems stock rising because of this?
  • Stevo_666
    Stevo_666 Posts: 61,408
    Garry H wrote:
    Does anybody else see the Lib Dems stock rising because of this?
    Yep, I predict they could double the number of seats in parliament if there was a general election. That would be up to a whopping 16.
    "I spent most of my money on birds, booze and fast cars: the rest of it I just squandered." [George Best]
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    mrfpb wrote:
    Lookyhere wrote:
    mrfpb wrote:
    Where's Wally?

    Or rather where is George Osborne.

    Is there any non-political reason why the BoE and Treasury could not have told us their contingency plans for Brexit before the vote, and so avoided at least some of the market panic? I think we need to ask Wally, sorry George.

    Where does this £250 billion of bank support money come from? how does all this effect the selling off of RBS/Lloyds stock ?

    and do the banks need to pay it back or is it added to our debt?

    the BOE and George told us all, many times over what their fears were and the dangers of a Brexit, have you changed your mind now?

    Osborne told us scare stories, but not about contingency planning. If the markets knew what plans were in place they would not have panicked so much. Much of the volatility over Thurs - Fri was due to traders betting heavily on a Remain vote, the panic on Friday was due to losing their bet.

    Check out Soros and ERM exit to see what happens when you tell everybody your plans. I would imagine the BofE has been quietly buying sterling. This will be confirmed when they release stats on our holdings of foreign exchange reserves. This will also tell us how much money we have lost trading the wrong way on currency fluctuations. This will quite possibly be in the tens of billions.
  • iPete
    iPete Posts: 6,076
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    There must be a more effective way of kicking the establishment elite than voting for The Boris.

    It's so backwards. Cut off your nose to spite your own face and all that.

    Anyway, the rhetoric and lies are beginning to unwind. It took Farage all of 5 minutes to dismiss the £350million headline. Now the immigration tone is starting to back pedal. Let's face it, if you voted because your fears of Johnny Foreigner things are not going to change, you have not 'stuck it to the man'.

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status ... 4610692096
  • dabber
    dabber Posts: 1,978
    I saw this posted elsewhere. Too late I think.....

    Farage told the Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.” (16th May 2016)



    Now it seems a petition have been started on the Parliamentary website for a second referendum with over 850k signatures already. So many signed it that the website "fell over" yesterday.



    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    But over a 1 Million at the moment....
    “You may think that; I couldn’t possibly comment!”

    Wilier Cento Uno SR/Wilier Mortirolo/Specialized Roubaix Comp/Kona Hei Hei/Calibre Bossnut
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    It's not been picked up yet but Scotland is huge here. The result of a second referendum(if there is one) will validate or not the result of the UK referendum.

    A Scottish referendum will be a simple decision between remaining/joining the EU and staying in the UK. In effect the Scots will be deciding who they prefer, the UK or the EU.

    38% have already rejected the EU in favour of the UK. It only needs 6% swing for Scotland to do the same. Is that a lot when they are deciding between the UK & the EU?

    All Scottish politicians excluding the SNP that were for the EU will have to decide between the EU and the UK e.g. *Ruth Davidson & Kezia Dugdale

    Their views and the outcome of a second referendum** will be the best judgement on whether rUK was correct in voting to leave.

    * Probably the best politician on the remain side

    ** If they call one. I would not based on the risk of the above happening.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    Too much to catch up on overall. Everyone has now gone into blame mode.

    The EU are still trying to tell us what to do but trying to dictate the pace of exit negotiations. Have they not learnt? I'm encouraged that the UK will do things at the pace that is best for the UK. This simple thing sums up the why we had this referendum

    Quite rightly we are trying to get as much agreed as possible before quitting and entering the 2 year timeframe as once that clock is ticking our backs will be hard against the negotiating wall.

    The EU are only losing by prolonging this period of uncertainty so want us to get a move on. Also once the 2 year timeframe kicks in they will have the leverage and will win the negotiation.

    Then in my opinion The EU will refuse informal negotiations so not letting us get our ducks in a line as it is not in their interests. The Uk is now in a political vacuum and the Brexiteers will be very worried about backsliding so will trigger Article 50.

    I imagine that the EU will offer us a quick off the shelf Norwegian style agreement as that will save everybody a lot of money. Brexit could never accept so this will drag on for 2 years at the end of which we will have a WTO style agreement which will mean us paying 5-10% tariffs on all exports of goods. This will not cover services.
  • Bo Duke
    Bo Duke Posts: 1,058
    Dabber wrote:
    I saw this posted elsewhere. Too late I think.....

    Farage told the Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.” (16th May 2016)

    Now it seems a petition have been started on the Parliamentary website for a second referendum with over 850k signatures already. So many signed it that the website "fell over" yesterday.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    But over a 1 Million at the moment....
    Hang on, so if your party loses an election you can throw your toys out of the pram and demand another election simply because you didn't like the result of the first one?! Classic!

    Headless chickens......
    'Performance analysis and Froome not being clean was a media driven story. I haven’t heard one guy in the peloton say a negative thing about Froome, and I haven’t heard a single person in the peloton suggest Froome isn’t clean.' TSP
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    iPete wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    There must be a more effective way of kicking the establishment elite than voting for The Boris.

    It's so backwards. Cut off your nose to spite your own face and all that.

    Anyway, the rhetoric and lies are beginning to unwind. It took Farage all of 5 minutes to dismiss the £350million headline. Now the immigration tone is starting to back pedal. Let's face it, if you voted because your fears of Johnny Foreigner things are not going to change, you have not 'stuck it to the man'.

    https://twitter.com/BBCNewsnight/status ... 4610692096

    It was way less than 5 mins - it was even before the outcome was confirmed. Now there is a lot to dislike about Farage but he is a conviction politician. Personally I loved it When he calmly pointed out that the £350m a week to the NHS was obviously rubbish. By the look on the presenters face she had believed it and voted Out.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Garry H wrote:
    We won't though...

    Catholics are breeding their way to winning a future referendum
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 52,320
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    joe2008 wrote:
    "What...Jones

    There must be a more effective way of kicking the establishment elite than voting for The Boris.

    BoJo is the part of the elite:

    "Born in New York City to upper middle-class English parents, Johnson was educated at the European School of Brussels, Ashdown House School, and Eton College. He studied Classics at Balliol College, Oxford..."
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • bendertherobot
    bendertherobot Posts: 11,684
    Bo Duke wrote:
    Dabber wrote:
    I saw this posted elsewhere. Too late I think.....

    Farage told the Mirror: “In a 52-48 referendum this would be unfinished business by a long way. If the remain campaign win two-thirds to one-third that ends it.” (16th May 2016)

    Now it seems a petition have been started on the Parliamentary website for a second referendum with over 850k signatures already. So many signed it that the website "fell over" yesterday.

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215

    But over a 1 Million at the moment....
    Hang on, so if your party loses an election you can throw your toys out of the pram and demand another election simply because you didn't like the result of the first one?! Classic!

    Headless chickens......

    Well, not quite no. Our democratically elected Government set up something that people could fill in to request a debate. So, given it's reached 100,000, by its own rules, they can consider a debate now. And discuss it, or just reject it and not discuss it at all. I think we know what will happen.
    My blog: http://www.roubaixcycling.cc (kit reviews and other musings)
    https://twitter.com/roubaixcc
    Facebook? No. Just say no.
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 52,320
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Garry H wrote:
    We won't though...

    Catholics are breeding their way to winning a future referendum

    Yes, won't be too long before protestants will be in the minority. This is the only time I have ever considered the Vatican's stance on contraception as a good thing.
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    Dabber wrote:
    Now it seems a petition have been started on the Parliamentary website for a second referendum with over 850k signatures already. So many signed it that the website "fell over" yesterday.



    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/131215[/i]

    But over a 1 Million at the moment....

    This is up there with the mark your ballot papers in pen 'tin foil hat' brigade :roll:
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Coopster the 1st wrote:
    It's not been picked up yet but Scotland is huge here. The result of a second referendum(if there is one) will validate or not the result of the UK referendum.

    A Scottish referendum will be a simple decision between remaining/joining the EU and staying in the UK. In effect the Scots will be deciding who they prefer, the UK or the EU.

    38% have already rejected the EU in favour of the UK. It only needs 6% swing for Scotland to do the same. Is that a lot when they are deciding between the UK & the EU?

    All Scottish politicians excluding the SNP that were for the EU will have to decide between the EU and the UK e.g. *Ruth Davidson & Kezia Dugdale

    Their views and the outcome of a second referendum** will be the best judgement on whether rUK was correct in voting to leave.

    * Probably the best politician on the remain side

    ** If they call one. I would not based on the risk of the above happening.

    As it stands it will be a referendum on leaving the UK - they will then have to apply to join the EU

    Another option is for the Uk and Wales to leave the UK and leave the scots with our membership and all of the opt outs and no Euro. From our point of view it would be easier to rejoin the UK than the EU.
  • Garry H
    Garry H Posts: 6,639
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Garry H wrote:
    We won't though...

    Catholics are breeding their way to winning a future referendum

    True, but that was going to happen anyway. I meant the more immediate effect of the exit, regarding border controls etc
  • pinno
    pinno Posts: 52,320
    Garry H wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Garry H wrote:
    We won't though...

    Catholics are breeding their way to winning a future referendum

    True, but that was going to happen anyway. I meant the more immediate effect of the exit, regarding border controls etc

    [Digressing a little]

    The only border is between NI and Eire. Border controls can occur at the ferry ports. I doubt there will be much change between NI and Eire. Unless by some miracle there is re-unification of Ireland. Who cold have foreseen that a Brexit caused that. Not entirely impossible.
    seanoconn - gruagach craic!
  • rick_chasey
    rick_chasey Posts: 75,661
    Garry H wrote:
    Does anybody else see the Lib Dems stock rising because of this?

    Possibly if they got some air time.

    Who here has even heard Tim Faron speak, or even heard of his name?





    We can but hope, obviously, but I wouldn't hang your hat on it.
    _
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Garry H wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Garry H wrote:
    We won't though...

    Catholics are breeding their way to winning a future referendum

    True, but that was going to happen anyway. I meant the more immediate effect of the exit, regarding border controls etc

    Won't happen for two years and in the grand scheme of things is irrelevant. I imagine Sinn Fein will use it as a chance to unite Ireland
  • Garry H
    Garry H Posts: 6,639
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Garry H wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Garry H wrote:
    We won't though...

    Catholics are breeding their way to winning a future referendum

    True, but that was going to happen anyway. I meant the more immediate effect of the exit, regarding border controls etc

    Won't happen for two years and in the grand scheme of things is irrelevant. I imagine Sinn Fein will use it as a chance to unite Ireland
    Their preferred version of a referendum will not happen though
  • jawooga
    jawooga Posts: 530
    Rick Chasey wrote:

    Who here has even heard Tim Faron speak, or even heard of his name

    Heard him talk on Friday morning, very well too.
  • mrfpb
    mrfpb Posts: 4,569
    jawooga wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:

    Who here has even heard Tim Faron speak, or even heard of his name

    Heard him talk on Friday morning, very well too.

    Unlike most of the party leaders he was really angry about the result and didn't hold back. Clearly he is not considered important enough for his views to be carried forward in the endless loops of Farage, Sturgeon and Cameron that we have been watching since.
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    mrfpb wrote:
    jawooga wrote:
    Rick Chasey wrote:

    Who here has even heard Tim Faron speak, or even heard of his name

    Heard him talk on Friday morning, very well too.

    Unlike most of the party leaders he was really angry about the result and didn't hold back. Clearly he is not considered important enough for his views to be carried forward in the endless loops of Farage, Sturgeon and Cameron that we have been watching since.

    After the 2015 GE, I suspect the remain camp saw the LibDems as poison to a large portion of the remain vote. In Nick Clegg they have a great speaker but can see why they would hide him away
  • Lookyhere
    Lookyhere Posts: 987
    Happy Coopster?

    EU calling for the passport system for british banks to be removed, Airbus reviewing investment plans and Merkel saying the UK wishes to leave the EU and the single market...... doesnt bode well.

    there will be no 2nd vote or any new terms to keep us in (as you predicted) infact the EU are in a hurry to get rid of us and they ll give us no favourable terms what-so-ever, never mind the potential split of the union and the mess that will be Gibraltar.
    oh and now the capital markets union, which would have released 3 trillion euros of investment into EU is what? London (the eu's premier financial centre) would have been the winner but we are leaving so thats gone too.

    of course early days but Gove and Johnsons silence is deafening, i wonder if they ever really thought they d win :roll:
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Lookyhere wrote:
    Happy Coopster?

    EU calling for the passport system for british banks to be removed, Airbus reviewing investment plans and Merkel saying the UK wishes to leave the EU and the single market...... doesnt bode well.

    there will be no 2nd vote or any new terms to keep us in (as you predicted) infact the EU are in a hurry to get rid of us and they ll give us no favourable terms what-so-ever, never mind the potential split of the union and the mess that will be Gibraltar.

    of course early days but Gove and Johnsons silence is deafening, i wonder if they ever really thought they d win :roll:

    They are but the Jonny come lately figureheads. The out campaign has been running for over two decades they must have a carefully thought out series of cascading contingency plans. The silence will either be a part of the cascade.

    what do you want them to do? we just quit the worlds largest trading bloc whilst insulting them of course the markets are jittery and our previous partners unhelpful.
  • Lookyhere
    Lookyhere Posts: 987
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Lookyhere wrote:
    Happy Coopster?

    EU calling for the passport system for british banks to be removed, Airbus reviewing investment plans and Merkel saying the UK wishes to leave the EU and the single market...... doesnt bode well.

    there will be no 2nd vote or any new terms to keep us in (as you predicted) infact the EU are in a hurry to get rid of us and they ll give us no favourable terms what-so-ever, never mind the potential split of the union and the mess that will be Gibraltar.

    of course early days but Gove and Johnsons silence is deafening, i wonder if they ever really thought they d win :roll:

    They are but the Jonny come lately figureheads. The out campaign has been running for over two decades they must have a carefully thought out series of cascading contingency plans. The silence will either be a part of the cascade.

    what do you want them to do? we just quit the worlds largest trading bloc whilst insulting them of course the markets are jittery and our previous partners unhelpful.

    why should i know what they should do?
    this is possibly the worst decision we have ever made and the shame of it all, is the generation that had free education and gold plated pensions have shafted the young.
  • orraloon
    orraloon Posts: 13,227
    Noisy bouncing of the markets on Friday is all short term, much as always was.

    Real world starts to kick in from Monday. Example: Mrs O works in large UK FTSE company, UK market so no balancing Euro or USD businesses outside UK, suppliers mostly in USD. Mgmt alert emails today, all normal mgmt meetings next week cancelled, instead looking to implement Leave contingency plans. The stress is on costs, i.e. code for job cuts.

    Slice by slice, down we slide.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    Lookyhere wrote:
    Surrey Commuter wrote:
    Lookyhere wrote:
    Happy Coopster?

    EU calling for the passport system for british banks to be removed, Airbus reviewing investment plans and Merkel saying the UK wishes to leave the EU and the single market...... doesnt bode well.

    there will be no 2nd vote or any new terms to keep us in (as you predicted) infact the EU are in a hurry to get rid of us and they ll give us no favourable terms what-so-ever, never mind the potential split of the union and the mess that will be Gibraltar.

    of course early days but Gove and Johnsons silence is deafening, i wonder if they ever really thought they d win :roll:

    They are but the Jonny come lately figureheads. The out campaign has been running for over two decades they must have a carefully thought out series of cascading contingency plans. The silence will either be a part of the cascade.

    what do you want them to do? we just quit the worlds largest trading bloc whilst insulting them of course the markets are jittery and our previous partners unhelpful.

    why should i know what they should do?
    this is possibly the worst decision we have ever made and the shame of it all, is the generation that had free education and gold plated pensions have shafted the young.

    It was a rhetorical question - if you leave the world's largest trading bloc the markets tend to take a negative sentiment (they think you are a twat). They sell assets priced in £ so driving down your currency and financial markets. Other than the textbook statement by Carney appealing for calm and assuring everybody you have the means and the will to back the banks there is nothing you can do.
  • surrey_commuter
    surrey_commuter Posts: 18,867
    orraloon wrote:
    Noisy bouncing of the markets on Friday is all short term, much as always was.

    Real world starts to kick in from Monday. Example: Mrs O works in large UK FTSE company, UK market so no balancing Euro or USD businesses outside UK, suppliers mostly in USD. Mgmt alert emails today, all normal mgmt meetings next week cancelled, instead looking to implement Leave contingency plans. The stress is on costs, i.e. code for job cuts.

    Slice by slice, down we slide.

    I hope she still has a chair when the music stops.

    On the plus side some northern tvvat has his country back and has stuck two fingers up to the elite
  • coopster_the_1st
    coopster_the_1st Posts: 5,158
    Lookyhere wrote:
    Happy Coopster?

    EU calling for the passport system for british banks to be removed, Airbus reviewing investment plans and Merkel saying the UK wishes to leave the EU and the single market...... doesnt bode well.

    there will be no 2nd vote or any new terms to keep us in (as you predicted) infact the EU are in a hurry to get rid of us and they ll give us no favourable terms what-so-ever, never mind the potential split of the union and the mess that will be Gibraltar.
    oh and now the capital markets union, which would have released 3 trillion euros of investment into EU is what? London (the eu's premier financial centre) would have been the winner but we are leaving so thats gone too.

    of course early days but Gove and Johnsons silence is deafening, i wonder if they ever really thought they d win :roll:

    Happy is the wrong word when there is so much bitterness about, although this would have been the case whatever the result.

    I would go with positive and excited :D

    As I have said above, the EU are still not listening and trying to tell us what to do. Should we really do as they say and elect a new PM in the next few days or follow the conservative democratic process? Why should we weaken our negotiating position by giving into a bully?

    I'll admit to be wrong about there being a second referendum but my thought was that would be the case after EU reform had been negotiated. My views on why I voted to Leave have not changed. Although funny how one side are now pushing a Gov petition for a 2nd referendum. Both sides should have pushed this before the vote to take place for it to have legitimacy.

    I trust you have seen that Morgan Stanley have denied they are relocating, the leaked memo from JP Morgan to its internal staff and that S Korea's top diplomat said South Korea will consider a bilateral trade deal. Somewhat different to the scaremongering we were fed.

    I don't believe there will be a split in the union. As said above 38% have already rejected the EU in favour of the UK and it only needs a 6% swing for that to be a majority and to validate the UK's electorate decision.

    I would argue the silence from George Osborne is more deafening. Will we hear him make a public speech again before he is sacked?

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