BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴

orraloon

Coopster the 1st wrote:

You must have a point where your vote will switch. I have mine and it is based on the EU reforming and the removal of free movement of labour.

What's your beef with free movement of labour?

Indeed should the isolationists win, god help us, who in the native UK born population is going to replace the current EU origin workforce, working for minimum wage and paying NI taxes, doing the hard graft, picking our fruit and vegetables, staffing our elderly care homes, staffing the NHS, working as pickers in those massive distribution sheds at our motorway junctions, etc etc?

Do you really think the benefits junkie larda4se segment of the population will go, here hang on, I could go and work for a living? Dream on.

ddraver

Nige has really excelled tonight - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 34461.html

orraloon

ddraver wrote:

Nige has really excelled tonight - http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po ... 34461.html

He's been sidelined has he not, so his only way of getting press attention is to step up the gobsh1teness.

Cue that Cyndi Lauper track: "But I see your true colors (sic) shining through"

rick_chasey

Project feral.

coopster_the_1st

orraloon wrote:

What's your beef with free movement of labour?

My issue with the free movement of labour is that it is unmanaged. We could have 1m people arrive from the EU this year and we could do nothing about it. Replace 'free' with 'managed' for the movement of labour and then it is not an influence on my vote.

We need to be able to put a stop to people arriving if more people is a negative on current UK citizens. I put health, schooling, housing, and other public services that affect quality of life as the highest priority. Diluting this by allowing unrestricted access to any of these does and will negatively affect current UK citizens.

It also provides downward pressure on wages as cheap hard working labour is in plentiful supply. This has the knock on effect of costing the UK more in benefits to support low wage UK workers(tax credits, etc).

We have a national minimum wage, which is among the highest is the EU, creating a massive draw to EU residents in poorer countries. Imagine how much harder you would work if another country offered you a job on 2x or 4x your current salary. If this would not make a difference to you, you are one of the few in a very privileged position with what you earn now.

Because of the current free EU movement policy and the government trying to stick to an election commitment I have had very good work non-EU colleagues leave the company I work for and head home. In a managed movement of labour these colleagues would have had an equal chance of staying in the UK.

orraloon wrote:

Indeed should the isolationists win, god help us, who in the native UK born population is going to replace the current EU origin workforce, working for minimum wage and paying NI taxes, doing the hard graft, picking our fruit and vegetables, staffing our elderly care homes, staffing the NHS, working as pickers in those massive distribution sheds at our motorway junctions, etc etc?

Do you really think the benefits junkie larda4se segment of the population will go, here hang on, I could go and work for a living? Dream on.

The current EU workforce does not need replacing as the status quo for them will continue post Brexit. Any requirement for more workers in specific sectors will be managed per the managed migration process. So if we need more brick layers it will be open to the world work force.

I don't see this making much difference to the section of the population that you describe so positively describe ( :roll: ) but alongside currently policies(loss of benefits), they will have many less excuses to not find a job as the competition will not be there.

The managed migration of labour works for other successful countries, hence why I don't see a downside to introduce it to the UK. It also means we can select from the world labour pool when it is required rather than in most cases be restricted to the EU labour pool whether it is required or not.

orraloon

Coopster the 1st wrote:

It also provides downward pressure on wages as cheap hard working labour is in plentiful supply.

Ooh, now who's playing the project fear card. Beware the Lithuanian bogey(wo)man, coming to take your job. Where's your factual evidence of real cuts in Uk average wages? 2.1% increase y-o-y last quarter according to ONS figures. Admittedly less than the 2001-16 average of 2.9%, but hey there's statistics for you.

Coopster the 1st wrote:

We have a national minimum wage, which is among the highest is the EU, creating a massive draw to EU residents in poorer countries. Imagine how much harder you would work if another country offered you a job on 2x or 4x your current salary. If this would not make a difference to you, you are one of the few in a very privileged position with what you earn now.

I don't want to work for minimum wage, thank you, I'm actually self employed. These incomers working for min wage are welcome to what they get, they graft for it. Have you ever worked in agriculture harvesting crops? I have. Is 'kin hard work. Have you ever worked 24 hour shift patterns in a food processing plant? I have. Blxxdy hard work.

So I have no problem with regarding lazy workshy slackers of whatever birth origin as benefit junkie larda4ses. Trouble is, I can't look on Poles, Romanians, Czechs, whatever who do want to work, and work hard paying their taxes in jobs those BJLAs don't want to do as somehow a problem.

Benefit junkies now, whether Brit or other, they're a problem, one which, as in Germany, is entirely within the powers of the UK government to address.

verylonglegs

So..voting in the referendum on the basis you can vote again with different terms in a second one. I think you are totally mis-reading the position we are in to come up with that theory.

I'm just hoping the win-win situation occurs..the In vote prevails and the political careers of Johnson, Gove and Duncan-Smith are put to the sword. I knew it would get bad but I must admit to being surprised at just how unhinged the likes of Boris have become so soon. I wonder if he knows he's backed a three-legged horse and will now say anything to change it.

cycleclinic

I hope for the same but whatever the result the tory party will be split after the vote and it will be dificult to heal.
Problem polls say it is evens no idea which way it is going to go. Whatever the result it won't be settled until the those who like brexit grow old and die off. that will take 40 years though.

bobmcstuff

Opinion piece on FT:

The pro-European camp has won hands-down the economic argument of the campaign. The International Monetary Fund was only the latest of many independent institutions, national and international, to declare that Britain would be poorer for breaking with the EU. Brexit would hit investment, jobs and living standards. The response of the Leave side has been to allege some vast international conspiracy to trick the British electorate. Even by the standards of Donald Trump’s tactics in the US presidential primaries, this is cynicism gone mad.

https://next.ft.com/content/0ac5b098-1c ... 846770ec15

coopster_the_1st

orraloon wrote:

Coopster the 1st wrote:

It also provides downward pressure on wages as cheap hard working labour is in plentiful supply.

Ooh, now who's playing the project fear card. Beware the Lithuanian bogey(wo)man, coming to take your job. Where's your factual evidence of real cuts in Uk average wages? 2.1% increase y-o-y last quarter according to ONS figures. Admittedly less than the 2001-16 average of 2.9%, but hey there's statistics for you.

From the leader of the remain camp, Stuart Rose:

"A businessman who said that the public shouldn’t complain about migrants undercutting British workers and taking on jobs for less money is to lead the campaign to keep the country in the EU."

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/stuart-rose-businessman-who-backed-immigration-for-cutting-wages-to-lead-campaign-to-keep-britain-in-a6688561.html


"Wages will rise if Britain votes to leave the European Union and the number of EU migrants coming to the UK falls, the head of the “in” campaign has admitted."

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12181385/Wages-for-British-workers-will-rise-in-the-event-of-a-Brexit-head-of-in-campaign-says.html

orraloon

Well there ye go, ignore the inconvenient truth of facts and go with the opinions why don't ye?

Not a kipper are you? Just checking.

By the way, wages will have to rise if we fall out of the EU given the pound will tank, cost of imported goods will rise, and inflation will take off.

But hey, we will have increased 'sovereignty', to the extent our Chinese, Indian, Thai, Saudi, 'Mericun... overlords will allow such frippery.

coopster_the_1st

orraloon wrote:

Well there ye go, ignore the inconvenient truth of facts and go with the opinions why don't ye?

I would be confident the man leading the remain campaign has more accurate facts that you or I otherwise that undermines his and his campaigns position with the facts they are presenting :roll:

orraloon wrote:

Not a kipper are you? Just checking.

Here we go again. Unable to present a discussion so let's try and attack the credibility of the poster. But to answer your question I'm not a kipper. In fact, there's a good chance you are more likely to vote for UKIP than me!

orraloon wrote:

By the way, wages will have to rise if we fall out of the EU given the pound will tank, cost of imported goods will rise, and inflation will take off.

But hey, we will have increased 'sovereignty', to the extent our Chinese, Indian, Thai, Saudi, 'Mericun... overlords will allow such frippery.

Is this more facts you are presenting?

Or are you taking the 'facts' presented by the treasury for what they are predicting over the next 14 years upon a LEAVE vote? Their prediction would carry more credibility if they had been able to predict the last 6 months accurately...

surrey_commuter

Coopster the 1st wrote:

orraloon wrote:

Well there ye go, ignore the inconvenient truth of facts and go with the opinions why don't ye?

I would be confident the man leading the remain campaign has more accurate facts that you or I otherwise that undermines his and his campaigns position with the facts they are presenting :roll:

orraloon wrote:

Not a kipper are you? Just checking.

Here we go again. Unable to present a discussion so let's try and attack the credibility of the poster. But to answer your question I'm not a kipper. In fact, there's a good chance you are more likely to vote for UKIP than me!

orraloon wrote:

By the way, wages will have to rise if we fall out of the EU given the pound will tank, cost of imported goods will rise, and inflation will take off.

But hey, we will have increased 'sovereignty', to the extent our Chinese, Indian, Thai, Saudi, 'Mericun... overlords will allow such frippery.

Is this more facts you are presenting?

Or are you taking the 'facts' presented by the treasury for what they are predicting over the next 14 years upon a LEAVE vote? Their prediction would carry more credibility if they had been able to predict the last 6 months accurately...

If the economy tanks (as expected) then the level of migrants will be irrelevant to wage growth. You only need look at the last 8 years to see this.

You may not trust the Treasury but I can tell you that the markets are predicting falling growth and inflation rising on the back of sterling tanking. They also see the vote 50/50.

If you care about general economic prosperity it is generally accepted you should vote in. If you work in one of a limited number of industries in a limited number of locations and see your wages being suppressed by immigrants then by all means consider voting out. But you should also look at the bigger impact on your employer and industry.

mr_goo

Just having a quick skim through the latest posts on this thread and i get the impression that those of you who are espousing the virtues of the EU and all for staying in due to economic reasons, are all possibly working within the confines of 'The City' or an institution allied to the square mile.
Spare a thought for the average Joe and Josephine. Who if this country votes to stay in, will see the continued decline of the NHS (they cannot afford private medical, like some of you). They have ever increasing problems in getting their kids into the state school of their choice due to the rise in population outstripping school places (they cannot afford to send their kids to private schools). Joe is a building contractor and increasing finds it difficult to compete with contractors from eastern europe. Josephine's choice of job is becoming limited, she doesn't have a degree and the only growth industries in the country are Supermarkets and Coffee Shops which pay the minimum/working wage.

I could go on. And perhaps my argument isn't quite cogent and up there in the echelons of the higher educated like what some of you are. But this vote is not just about Economy, Economy and Economy. It's more about how average people are affected by the EU. And how a break from this undemocratic governance could improve the lives of the majority. I hope the majority see through the tissue of lies from the In campaign and do the right thing for them and this country.

pblakeney

Mr Goo wrote:

Just having a quick skim through the latest posts on this thread and i get the impression that those of you who are espousing the virtues of the EU and all for staying in due to economic reasons, are all possibly working within the confines of 'The City' or an institution allied to the square mile.
Spare a thought for the average Joe and Josephine. Who if this country votes to stay in, will see the continued decline of the NHS (they cannot afford private medical, like some of you). They have ever increasing problems in getting their kids into the state school of their choice due to the rise in population outstripping school places (they cannot afford to send their kids to private schools). Joe is a building contractor and increasing finds it difficult to compete with contractors from eastern europe. Josephine's choice of job is becoming limited, she doesn't have a degree and the only growth industries in the country are Supermarkets and Coffee Shops which pay the minimum/working wage.

I could go on. And perhaps my argument isn't quite cogent and up there in the echelons of the higher educated like what some of you are. But this vote is not just about Economy, Economy and Economy. It's more about how average people are affected by the EU. And how a break from this undemocratic governance could improve the lives of the majority. I hope the majority see through the tissue of lies from the In campaign and do the right thing for them and this country.

Applauds.

mamba80

Mr Goo wrote:

Just having a quick skim through the latest posts on this thread and i get the impression that those of you who are espousing the virtues of the EU and all for staying in due to economic reasons, are all possibly working within the confines of 'The City' or an institution allied to the square mile.
Spare a thought for the average Joe and Josephine. Who if this country votes to stay in, will see the continued decline of the NHS (they cannot afford private medical, like some of you). They have ever increasing problems in getting their kids into the state school of their choice due to the rise in population outstripping school places (they cannot afford to send their kids to private schools). Joe is a building contractor and increasing finds it difficult to compete with contractors from eastern europe. Josephine's choice of job is becoming limited, she doesn't have a degree and the only growth industries in the country are Supermarkets and Coffee Shops which pay the minimum/working wage.

I could go on. And perhaps my argument isn't quite cogent and up there in the echelons of the higher educated like what some of you are. But this vote is not just about Economy, Economy and Economy. It's more about how average people are affected by the EU. And how a break from this undemocratic governance could improve the lives of the majority. I hope the majority see through the tissue of lies from the In campaign and do the right thing for them and this country.

mmmmm i work in IT down in the southwest and the GF is in admin, so not a city banker/lawyer.

i ve looked at the evidence and what will probably happen (no one can be sure, what ever they say) if we leave and that is the EU/uk exit negotiations will leave us still bound to the the freedom of movement, we ll still have to abide by EU rules and regs and its also probable that we ll still have to pay in, so aside from not actually being in the EU, how much will change?
Also, the exit negotiations will be done by the Tories, the same tories that went to the EU and asked for and got exactly what? Cameron could have pushed for sooooo much more, instead he was over cautious and got xxxx all.

But say if we truly did get back all this lost sovereignty, Do we really want to give absolute power to Gove, Osbourne, Boris, Hunt (he ll still be there) and Cameron? or if your more of a right winger, potentially Corbyn etc?

Pre 1970s, the UK didnt have a stella record on supporting/investing in industry, where the decline really took place.

as for a tissue of lies from the IN camp? the latest from the OUT is "12m Turks to come to UK..." really? they r not even a member, anyone of the current 28 members can veto their membership, so what chance have they really got? none!
the OUTs are just as much guilty as telling a pack lies as the INs. how about "EU will destroy our NHS was another..... " ffs. almost as bad as Camerons "Giant French hornets unleashed on UK if we vote OUT" oh sorry, that one is for next week.

For me and my GF, its more about the environment, employment rights, trade, travel and with increased threats from IS etc and far right extremists, i think on balance we r better off in EU trying for change than we are looking in and have zero influence.

mr_goo

mamba80 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Just having a quick skim through the latest posts on this thread and i get the impression that those of you who are espousing the virtues of the EU and all for staying in due to economic reasons, are all possibly working within the confines of 'The City' or an institution allied to the square mile.
Spare a thought for the average Joe and Josephine. Who if this country votes to stay in, will see the continued decline of the NHS (they cannot afford private medical, like some of you). They have ever increasing problems in getting their kids into the state school of their choice due to the rise in population outstripping school places (they cannot afford to send their kids to private schools). Joe is a building contractor and increasing finds it difficult to compete with contractors from eastern europe. Josephine's choice of job is becoming limited, she doesn't have a degree and the only growth industries in the country are Supermarkets and Coffee Shops which pay the minimum/working wage.

I could go on. And perhaps my argument isn't quite cogent and up there in the echelons of the higher educated like what some of you are. But this vote is not just about Economy, Economy and Economy. It's more about how average people are affected by the EU. And how a break from this undemocratic governance could improve the lives of the majority. I hope the majority see through the tissue of lies from the In campaign and do the right thing for them and this country.

mmmmm i work in IT down in the southwest and the GF is in admin, so not a city banker/lawyer.

i ve looked at the evidence and what will probably happen (no one can be sure, what ever they say) if we leave and that is the EU/uk exit negotiations will leave us still bound to the the freedom of movement, we ll still have to abide by EU rules and regs and its also probable that we ll still have to pay in, so aside from not actually being in the EU, how much will change?
Also, the exit negotiations will be done by the Tories, the same tories that went to the EU and asked for and got exactly what? Cameron could have pushed for sooooo much more, instead he was over cautious and got xxxx all.

But say if we truly did get back all this lost sovereignty, Do we really want to give absolute power to Gove, Osbourne, Boris, Hunt (he ll still be there) and Cameron? or if your more of a right winger, potentially Corbyn etc?

Pre 1970s, the UK didnt have a stella record on supporting/investing in industry, where the decline really took place.

as for a tissue of lies from the IN camp? the latest from the OUT is "12m Turks to come to UK..." really? they r not even a member, anyone of the current 28 members can veto their membership, so what chance have they really got? none!
the OUTs are just as much guilty as telling a pack lies as the INs. how about "EU will destroy our NHS was another..... " ffs. almost as bad as Camerons "Giant French hornets unleashed on UK if we vote OUT" oh sorry, that one is for next week.

For me and my GF, its more about the environment, employment rights, trade, travel and with increased threats from IS etc and far right extremists, i think on balance we r better off in EU trying for change than we are looking in and have zero influence.

The one concession I give you is the benefits the average employee his attained. Whether these could have been gained under a 'sovereign' controlled legislation we will never know. But I believe that Labour governments over time would have done the same. We will never know.

Regards the terrorism threat. The threat of Islamic terrorism within the shores of the UK and greater Europe and the West will be generational. Considering that it's ideals are based on grudges dating back to the crusades, I really do not think that anyone is going to change the mindset of these factions.
As for the rise in the extreme right wing, see above. It is only because of the rise of Islamic terrorism and that many of the barbaric acts are carried out from those given shelter or 2nd/3rd generation of migrants from that faith.
Note that it would be folly to call them neo Nazis. Nazis were actually socialists and there were Islamic brigades in WW2 operating in the Balkans to eradicate ethnic Jews, as Hitler saw the ethnic Muslims as great allies. Which then raises the question. Why do socialists align themselves with anti fascist movements who march against pro nationalist demonstrators? Weird.

As for the economy. The UK is already moving towards it's next cyclical economic downturn, you only have to look at the construction industry are great barometer of the way things are. It is only buoyant in the developer sector, where home ownership beyond the reach most of the younger generations. Those that have mortgages are on the edge of a precipice, it only needs interest to edge up very slightly and there is a world of hurt. Perhaps we do need house prices to move down.
However whichever way the vote goes, it'll be a win win for the IN campaign. If the country votes out, and when the economy plummets in 2-3 years time then they can say 'we told you so'. But if the country votes to stay in, and when there is an economic downturn, the IN campaign will merely state that it is a European/Global factor and was unavoidable.
The current growth in the UK is a mirage built on credit and more credit at all levels. Haven't we been here before?
Who benefits from this..... The 0.01% super wealthy, corporations and finance institutions. It's a win win, whichever way the coin falls. They have already no doubt put in place mechanisms for governmental bailouts to the tunes of £bns. And the average taxpayer foots the bill yet again. I'm not saying that In or Out of EU would change this. But the EU certainly seem to have be impotent in my view.

The EU is totally undemocratic. Cameron, and successors will never be able to change or influence the juggernaut that it has become. For the French and Germans the other two nett contributors it seems to work, and they make it work. For the UK we just seem to cow tow to every regulation and rule, and take it up the chuffy. Every time the UK tries to change something, the other two will merely veto it. What's the point?
We need to break free. Trade unshackled with the rest of the world. After all the USA wouldn't put up with it. And we all know that their word is gospel.

surrey_commuter

Mr Goo wrote:

Just having a quick skim through the latest posts on this thread and i get the impression that those of you who are espousing the virtues of the EU and all for staying in due to economic reasons, are all possibly working within the confines of 'The City' or an institution allied to the square mile.
Spare a thought for the average Joe and Josephine. Who if this country votes to stay in, will see the continued decline of the NHS (they cannot afford private medical, like some of you). They have ever increasing problems in getting their kids into the state school of their choice due to the rise in population outstripping school places (they cannot afford to send their kids to private schools). Joe is a building contractor and increasing finds it difficult to compete with contractors from eastern europe. Josephine's choice of job is becoming limited, she doesn't have a degree and the only growth industries in the country are Supermarkets and Coffee Shops which pay the minimum/working wage.

I could go on. And perhaps my argument isn't quite cogent and up there in the echelons of the higher educated like what some of you are. But this vote is not just about Economy, Economy and Economy. It's more about how average people are affected by the EU. And how a break from this undemocratic governance could improve the lives of the majority. I hope the majority see through the tissue of lies from the In campaign and do the right thing for them and this country.

I don't work in the CIty in any shape or form. Good analogy with JOe and Josephine using state services. An expression I love is that a rising tide lifts all boats. This is what happened under Blair when a booming economy allowed him to improve state services. Everybody (inc Gove, Boris etc) accept that we will be worse off in the short-term if we vote out. This will result in less taxes and less money for public services. As exit will take 2 years you can assume short term means up to 10 years. As it would then take 10 years to rejoin, Joe and Josephine would be farking their kids lives as well as their own.

Btw - building industry is slowing rapidly due to the increased tax take and fear of Brexit, so that might act as a warning sign for Joe.

surrey_commuter

Mr Goo wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Just having a quick skim through the latest posts on this thread and i get the impression that those of you who are espousing the virtues of the EU and all for staying in due to economic reasons, are all possibly working within the confines of 'The City' or an institution allied to the square mile.
Spare a thought for the average Joe and Josephine. Who if this country votes to stay in, will see the continued decline of the NHS (they cannot afford private medical, like some of you). They have ever increasing problems in getting their kids into the state school of their choice due to the rise in population outstripping school places (they cannot afford to send their kids to private schools). Joe is a building contractor and increasing finds it difficult to compete with contractors from eastern europe. Josephine's choice of job is becoming limited, she doesn't have a degree and the only growth industries in the country are Supermarkets and Coffee Shops which pay the minimum/working wage.

I could go on. And perhaps my argument isn't quite cogent and up there in the echelons of the higher educated like what some of you are. But this vote is not just about Economy, Economy and Economy. It's more about how average people are affected by the EU. And how a break from this undemocratic governance could improve the lives of the majority. I hope the majority see through the tissue of lies from the In campaign and do the right thing for them and this country.

mmmmm i work in IT down in the southwest and the GF is in admin, so not a city banker/lawyer.

i ve looked at the evidence and what will probably happen (no one can be sure, what ever they say) if we leave and that is the EU/uk exit negotiations will leave us still bound to the the freedom of movement, we ll still have to abide by EU rules and regs and its also probable that we ll still have to pay in, so aside from not actually being in the EU, how much will change?
Also, the exit negotiations will be done by the Tories, the same tories that went to the EU and asked for and got exactly what? Cameron could have pushed for sooooo much more, instead he was over cautious and got xxxx all.

But say if we truly did get back all this lost sovereignty, Do we really want to give absolute power to Gove, Osbourne, Boris, Hunt (he ll still be there) and Cameron? or if your more of a right winger, potentially Corbyn etc?

Pre 1970s, the UK didnt have a stella record on supporting/investing in industry, where the decline really took place.

as for a tissue of lies from the IN camp? the latest from the OUT is "12m Turks to come to UK..." really? they r not even a member, anyone of the current 28 members can veto their membership, so what chance have they really got? none!
the OUTs are just as much guilty as telling a pack lies as the INs. how about "EU will destroy our NHS was another..... " ffs. almost as bad as Camerons "Giant French hornets unleashed on UK if we vote OUT" oh sorry, that one is for next week.

For me and my GF, its more about the environment, employment rights, trade, travel and with increased threats from IS etc and far right extremists, i think on balance we r better off in EU trying for change than we are looking in and have zero influence.

The one concession I give you is the benefits the average employee his attained. Whether these could have been gained under a 'sovereign' controlled legislation we will never know. But I believe that Labour governments over time would have done the same. We will never know.

Regards the terrorism threat. The threat of Islamic terrorism within the shores of the UK and greater Europe and the West will be generational. Considering that it's ideals are based on grudges dating back to the crusades, I really do not think that anyone is going to change the mindset of these factions.
As for the rise in the extreme right wing, see above. It is only because of the rise of Islamic terrorism and that many of the barbaric acts are carried out from those given shelter or 2nd/3rd generation of migrants from that faith.
Note that it would be folly to call them neo Nazis. Nazis were actually socialists and there were Islamic brigades in WW2 operating in the Balkans to eradicate ethnic Jews, as Hitler saw the ethnic Muslims as great allies. Which then raises the question. Why do socialists align themselves with anti fascist movements who march against pro nationalist demonstrators? Weird.

As for the economy. The UK is already moving towards it's next cyclical economic downturn, you only have to look at the construction industry are great barometer of the way things are. It is only buoyant in the developer sector, where home ownership beyond the reach most of the younger generations. Those that have mortgages are on the edge of a precipice, it only needs interest to edge up very slightly and there is a world of hurt. Perhaps we do need house prices to move down.
However whichever way the vote goes, it'll be a win win for the IN campaign. If the country votes out, and when the economy plummets in 2-3 years time then they can say 'we told you so'. But if the country votes to stay in, and when there is an economic downturn, the IN campaign will merely state that it is a European/Global factor and was unavoidable.
The current growth in the UK is a mirage built on credit and more credit at all levels. Haven't we been here before?
Who benefits from this..... The 0.01% super wealthy, corporations and finance institutions. It's a win win, whichever way the coin falls. They have already no doubt put in place mechanisms for governmental bailouts to the tunes of £bns. And the average taxpayer foots the bill yet again. I'm not saying that In or Out of EU would change this. But the EU certainly seem to have be impotent in my view.

The EU is totally undemocratic. Cameron, and successors will never be able to change or influence the juggernaut that it has become. For the French and Germans the other two nett contributors it seems to work, and they make it work. For the UK we just seem to cow tow to every regulation and rule, and take it up the chuffy. Every time the UK tries to change something, the other two will merely veto it. What's the point?
We need to break free. Trade unshackled with the rest of the world. After all the USA wouldn't put up with it. And we all know that their word is gospel.

Not sure if somebody hacked your account since your last post but this is a deranged paranoid rant.

Nazis are National Socialists which is very different from socialist.

The economy plunging post Brexit is not win/win for anybody as we will be out for at least 20 years.

They are breaking up financial institutions so that none are too big to fail so don't need bailouts.

In the EU we can veto whatever we can't.

To use a cycling analogy being in the EU puts you nicely in the peloton. "Going it alone" would be as hard as it sounds. The USA is the equivalent of EU

coopster_the_1st

Surrey Commuter wrote:

If the economy tanks (as expected) then the level of migrants will be irrelevant to wage growth. You only need look at the last 8 years to see this.

You may not trust the Treasury but I can tell you that the markets are predicting falling growth and inflation rising on the back of sterling tanking. They also see the vote 50/50.

If you care about general economic prosperity it is generally accepted you should vote in. If you work in one of a limited number of industries in a limited number of locations and see your wages being suppressed by immigrants then by all means consider voting out. But you should also look at the bigger impact on your employer and industry.

It's funny you should mention looking at the bigger picture when you are voting on one specific issue that is secondary to what the referendum is about.

The referendum is on the issue if we should REMAIN or LEAVE. By voting to remain you are endorsing the EU, its rules, its configuration and its progression to a superstate as its future direction. By voting to leave you are saying you don't like the rules, its configuration and where it is heading in the future.

You use the word 'tanks', that is very fearful terminology. I agree there will be volatility but any change like this is going to cause that. I however do not believe 'tanking', my opinion would not be 'expert' enough but I believe actions taken by the BoE and our government would null the risk.

One problem I have is that the more fear that is injected the more fearful the markets get i.e. the more you talk about it the more likely it is to become a reality. This is a very dangerous game to play with a vote that could be very close. Another issue is that none of the major economic institutions are warning the UK of potential EU problems if we remain e.g. another Greek debt crisis, Italian Bank crisis, etc. Look at the wobble the markets had in Jan/Feb due to the fears European banks debt exposure.

It is blinkered for your vote to be influenced by possible economic problems just from Brexit when there are so many others around the world as well as economic risks of staying in the EU.

mr_goo

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

If the economy tanks (as expected) then the level of migrants will be irrelevant to wage growth. You only need look at the last 8 years to see this.

You may not trust the Treasury but I can tell you that the markets are predicting falling growth and inflation rising on the back of sterling tanking. They also see the vote 50/50.

If you care about general economic prosperity it is generally accepted you should vote in. If you work in one of a limited number of industries in a limited number of locations and see your wages being suppressed by immigrants then by all means consider voting out. But you should also look at the bigger impact on your employer and industry.

It's funny you should mention looking at the bigger picture when you are voting on one specific issue that is secondary to what the referendum is about.

The referendum is on the issue if we should REMAIN or LEAVE. By voting to remain you are endorsing the EU, its rules, its configuration and its progression to a superstate as its future direction. By voting to leave you are saying you don't like the rules, its configuration and where it is heading in the future.

You use the word 'tanks', that is very fearful terminology. I agree there will be volatility but any change like this is going to cause that. I however do not believe 'tanking', my opinion would not be 'expert' enough but I believe actions taken by the BoE and our government would null the risk.

One problem I have is that the more fear that is injected the more fearful the markets get i.e. the more you talk about it the more likely it is to become a reality. This is a very dangerous game to play with a vote that could be very close. Another issue is that none of the major economic institutions are warning the UK of potential EU problems if we remain e.g. another Greek debt crisis, Italian Bank crisis, etc. Look at the wobble the markets had in Jan/Feb due to the fears European banks debt exposure.

It is blinkered for your vote to be influenced by possible economic problems just from Brexit when there are so many others around the world as well as economic risks of staying in the EU.

Well said.

mr_goo

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Just having a quick skim through the latest posts on this thread and i get the impression that those of you who are espousing the virtues of the EU and all for staying in due to economic reasons, are all possibly working within the confines of 'The City' or an institution allied to the square mile.
Spare a thought for the average Joe and Josephine. Who if this country votes to stay in, will see the continued decline of the NHS (they cannot afford private medical, like some of you). They have ever increasing problems in getting their kids into the state school of their choice due to the rise in population outstripping school places (they cannot afford to send their kids to private schools). Joe is a building contractor and increasing finds it difficult to compete with contractors from eastern europe. Josephine's choice of job is becoming limited, she doesn't have a degree and the only growth industries in the country are Supermarkets and Coffee Shops which pay the minimum/working wage.

I could go on. And perhaps my argument isn't quite cogent and up there in the echelons of the higher educated like what some of you are. But this vote is not just about Economy, Economy and Economy. It's more about how average people are affected by the EU. And how a break from this undemocratic governance could improve the lives of the majority. I hope the majority see through the tissue of lies from the In campaign and do the right thing for them and this country.

mmmmm i work in IT down in the southwest and the GF is in admin, so not a city banker/lawyer.

i ve looked at the evidence and what will probably happen (no one can be sure, what ever they say) if we leave and that is the EU/uk exit negotiations will leave us still bound to the the freedom of movement, we ll still have to abide by EU rules and regs and its also probable that we ll still have to pay in, so aside from not actually being in the EU, how much will change?
Also, the exit negotiations will be done by the Tories, the same tories that went to the EU and asked for and got exactly what? Cameron could have pushed for sooooo much more, instead he was over cautious and got xxxx all.

But say if we truly did get back all this lost sovereignty, Do we really want to give absolute power to Gove, Osbourne, Boris, Hunt (he ll still be there) and Cameron? or if your more of a right winger, potentially Corbyn etc?

Pre 1970s, the UK didnt have a stella record on supporting/investing in industry, where the decline really took place.

as for a tissue of lies from the IN camp? the latest from the OUT is "12m Turks to come to UK..." really? they r not even a member, anyone of the current 28 members can veto their membership, so what chance have they really got? none!
the OUTs are just as much guilty as telling a pack lies as the INs. how about "EU will destroy our NHS was another..... " ffs. almost as bad as Camerons "Giant French hornets unleashed on UK if we vote OUT" oh sorry, that one is for next week.

For me and my GF, its more about the environment, employment rights, trade, travel and with increased threats from IS etc and far right extremists, i think on balance we r better off in EU trying for change than we are looking in and have zero influence.

The one concession I give you is the benefits the average employee his attained. Whether these could have been gained under a 'sovereign' controlled legislation we will never know. But I believe that Labour governments over time would have done the same. We will never know.

Regards the terrorism threat. The threat of Islamic terrorism within the shores of the UK and greater Europe and the West will be generational. Considering that it's ideals are based on grudges dating back to the crusades, I really do not think that anyone is going to change the mindset of these factions.
As for the rise in the extreme right wing, see above. It is only because of the rise of Islamic terrorism and that many of the barbaric acts are carried out from those given shelter or 2nd/3rd generation of migrants from that faith.
Note that it would be folly to call them neo Nazis. Nazis were actually socialists and there were Islamic brigades in WW2 operating in the Balkans to eradicate ethnic Jews, as Hitler saw the ethnic Muslims as great allies. Which then raises the question. Why do socialists align themselves with anti fascist movements who march against pro nationalist demonstrators? Weird.

As for the economy. The UK is already moving towards it's next cyclical economic downturn, you only have to look at the construction industry are great barometer of the way things are. It is only buoyant in the developer sector, where home ownership beyond the reach most of the younger generations. Those that have mortgages are on the edge of a precipice, it only needs interest to edge up very slightly and there is a world of hurt. Perhaps we do need house prices to move down.
However whichever way the vote goes, it'll be a win win for the IN campaign. If the country votes out, and when the economy plummets in 2-3 years time then they can say 'we told you so'. But if the country votes to stay in, and when there is an economic downturn, the IN campaign will merely state that it is a European/Global factor and was unavoidable.
The current growth in the UK is a mirage built on credit and more credit at all levels. Haven't we been here before?
Who benefits from this..... The 0.01% super wealthy, corporations and finance institutions. It's a win win, whichever way the coin falls. They have already no doubt put in place mechanisms for governmental bailouts to the tunes of £bns. And the average taxpayer foots the bill yet again. I'm not saying that In or Out of EU would change this. But the EU certainly seem to have be impotent in my view.

The EU is totally undemocratic. Cameron, and successors will never be able to change or influence the juggernaut that it has become. For the French and Germans the other two nett contributors it seems to work, and they make it work. For the UK we just seem to cow tow to every regulation and rule, and take it up the chuffy. Every time the UK tries to change something, the other two will merely veto it. What's the point?
We need to break free. Trade unshackled with the rest of the world. After all the USA wouldn't put up with it. And we all know that their word is gospel.

Not sure if somebody hacked your account since your last post but this is a deranged paranoid rant.

Nazis are National Socialists which is very different from socialist.

The economy plunging post Brexit is not win/win for anybody as we will be out for at least 20 years.

They are breaking up financial institutions so that none are too big to fail so don't need bailouts.

In the EU we can veto whatever we can't.

To use a cycling analogy being in the EU puts you nicely in the peloton. "Going it alone" would be as hard as it sounds. The USA is the equivalent of EU

Where I state Win Win on economic crash. I point out that either scenario will be suitably explained away very conveniently.
I still stand by the Nazi point of view. And the anti right wing mentality is one that has hamstrung the EU as an excuse for unwillingness to deal with immigration.
As for financial institutions willingly be broken up and seeing their potential for super wealth being curtailed. Be under no illusion the banks and financial institutions are the ones writing the policies not the politicians. Always has been always will be.

surrey_commuter

Mr Goo wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

mamba80 wrote:

Mr Goo wrote:

Just having a quick skim through the latest posts on this thread and i get the impression that those of you who are espousing the virtues of the EU and all for staying in due to economic reasons, are all possibly working within the confines of 'The City' or an institution allied to the square mile.
Spare a thought for the average Joe and Josephine. Who if this country votes to stay in, will see the continued decline of the NHS (they cannot afford private medical, like some of you). They have ever increasing problems in getting their kids into the state school of their choice due to the rise in population outstripping school places (they cannot afford to send their kids to private schools). Joe is a building contractor and increasing finds it difficult to compete with contractors from eastern europe. Josephine's choice of job is becoming limited, she doesn't have a degree and the only growth industries in the country are Supermarkets and Coffee Shops which pay the minimum/working wage.

I could go on. And perhaps my argument isn't quite cogent and up there in the echelons of the higher educated like what some of you are. But this vote is not just about Economy, Economy and Economy. It's more about how average people are affected by the EU. And how a break from this undemocratic governance could improve the lives of the majority. I hope the majority see through the tissue of lies from the In campaign and do the right thing for them and this country.

mmmmm i work in IT down in the southwest and the GF is in admin, so not a city banker/lawyer.

i ve looked at the evidence and what will probably happen (no one can be sure, what ever they say) if we leave and that is the EU/uk exit negotiations will leave us still bound to the the freedom of movement, we ll still have to abide by EU rules and regs and its also probable that we ll still have to pay in, so aside from not actually being in the EU, how much will change?
Also, the exit negotiations will be done by the Tories, the same tories that went to the EU and asked for and got exactly what? Cameron could have pushed for sooooo much more, instead he was over cautious and got xxxx all.

But say if we truly did get back all this lost sovereignty, Do we really want to give absolute power to Gove, Osbourne, Boris, Hunt (he ll still be there) and Cameron? or if your more of a right winger, potentially Corbyn etc?

Pre 1970s, the UK didnt have a stella record on supporting/investing in industry, where the decline really took place.

as for a tissue of lies from the IN camp? the latest from the OUT is "12m Turks to come to UK..." really? they r not even a member, anyone of the current 28 members can veto their membership, so what chance have they really got? none!
the OUTs are just as much guilty as telling a pack lies as the INs. how about "EU will destroy our NHS was another..... " ffs. almost as bad as Camerons "Giant French hornets unleashed on UK if we vote OUT" oh sorry, that one is for next week.

For me and my GF, its more about the environment, employment rights, trade, travel and with increased threats from IS etc and far right extremists, i think on balance we r better off in EU trying for change than we are looking in and have zero influence.

The one concession I give you is the benefits the average employee his attained. Whether these could have been gained under a 'sovereign' controlled legislation we will never know. But I believe that Labour governments over time would have done the same. We will never know.

Regards the terrorism threat. The threat of Islamic terrorism within the shores of the UK and greater Europe and the West will be generational. Considering that it's ideals are based on grudges dating back to the crusades, I really do not think that anyone is going to change the mindset of these factions.
As for the rise in the extreme right wing, see above. It is only because of the rise of Islamic terrorism and that many of the barbaric acts are carried out from those given shelter or 2nd/3rd generation of migrants from that faith.
Note that it would be folly to call them neo Nazis. Nazis were actually socialists and there were Islamic brigades in WW2 operating in the Balkans to eradicate ethnic Jews, as Hitler saw the ethnic Muslims as great allies. Which then raises the question. Why do socialists align themselves with anti fascist movements who march against pro nationalist demonstrators? Weird.

As for the economy. The UK is already moving towards it's next cyclical economic downturn, you only have to look at the construction industry are great barometer of the way things are. It is only buoyant in the developer sector, where home ownership beyond the reach most of the younger generations. Those that have mortgages are on the edge of a precipice, it only needs interest to edge up very slightly and there is a world of hurt. Perhaps we do need house prices to move down.
However whichever way the vote goes, it'll be a win win for the IN campaign. If the country votes out, and when the economy plummets in 2-3 years time then they can say 'we told you so'. But if the country votes to stay in, and when there is an economic downturn, the IN campaign will merely state that it is a European/Global factor and was unavoidable.
The current growth in the UK is a mirage built on credit and more credit at all levels. Haven't we been here before?
Who benefits from this..... The 0.01% super wealthy, corporations and finance institutions. It's a win win, whichever way the coin falls. They have already no doubt put in place mechanisms for governmental bailouts to the tunes of £bns. And the average taxpayer foots the bill yet again. I'm not saying that In or Out of EU would change this. But the EU certainly seem to have be impotent in my view.

The EU is totally undemocratic. Cameron, and successors will never be able to change or influence the juggernaut that it has become. For the French and Germans the other two nett contributors it seems to work, and they make it work. For the UK we just seem to cow tow to every regulation and rule, and take it up the chuffy. Every time the UK tries to change something, the other two will merely veto it. What's the point?
We need to break free. Trade unshackled with the rest of the world. After all the USA wouldn't put up with it. And we all know that their word is gospel.

Not sure if somebody hacked your account since your last post but this is a deranged paranoid rant.

Nazis are National Socialists which is very different from socialist.

The economy plunging post Brexit is not win/win for anybody as we will be out for at least 20 years.

They are breaking up financial institutions so that none are too big to fail so don't need bailouts.

In the EU we can veto whatever we can't.

To use a cycling analogy being in the EU puts you nicely in the peloton. "Going it alone" would be as hard as it sounds. The USA is the equivalent of EU

Where I state Win Win on economic crash. I point out that either scenario will be suitably explained away very conveniently.
I still stand by the Nazi point of view. And the anti right wing mentality is one that has hamstrung the EU as an excuse for unwillingness to deal with immigration.
As for financial institutions willingly be broken up and seeing their potential for super wealth being curtailed. Be under no illusion the banks and financial institutions are the ones writing the policies not the politicians. Always has been always will be.

I have no idea what you are insinuating about "very conveniently"

Am I right in thinking that you consider the EU to be anti-right wing due to a backlash against Nazism and this is wrong as Hitler was a socialist?

You think that the banks have instigated the new regulations enforcing higher funding levels?

Having re-read your last paragraph I would have no problem with you being deprived of your vote

surrey_commuter

Coopster the 1st wrote:

Surrey Commuter wrote:

If the economy tanks (as expected) then the level of migrants will be irrelevant to wage growth. You only need look at the last 8 years to see this.

You may not trust the Treasury but I can tell you that the markets are predicting falling growth and inflation rising on the back of sterling tanking. They also see the vote 50/50.

If you care about general economic prosperity it is generally accepted you should vote in. If you work in one of a limited number of industries in a limited number of locations and see your wages being suppressed by immigrants then by all means consider voting out. But you should also look at the bigger impact on your employer and industry.

It's funny you should mention looking at the bigger picture when you are voting on one specific issue that is secondary to what the referendum is about.

The referendum is on the issue if we should REMAIN or LEAVE. By voting to remain you are endorsing the EU, its rules, its configuration and its progression to a superstate as its future direction. By voting to leave you are saying you don't like the rules, its configuration and where it is heading in the future.

You use the word 'tanks', that is very fearful terminology. I agree there will be volatility but any change like this is going to cause that. I however do not believe 'tanking', my opinion would not be 'expert' enough but I believe actions taken by the BoE and our government would null the risk.

One problem I have is that the more fear that is injected the more fearful the markets get i.e. the more you talk about it the more likely it is to become a reality. This is a very dangerous game to play with a vote that could be very close. Another issue is that none of the major economic institutions are warning the UK of potential EU problems if we remain e.g. another Greek debt crisis, Italian Bank crisis, etc. Look at the wobble the markets had in Jan/Feb due to the fears European banks debt exposure.

It is blinkered for your vote to be influenced by possible economic problems just from Brexit when there are so many others around the world as well as economic risks of staying in the EU.

Fair enough I will replace "tanks" with recession which is the consensus prediction. The assumption is that Sterling would fall 20-30% which would push up inflation and in the short-term significantly weaken our balance of payments deficit set against a background of negative economic growth. The solution for sterling and inflation is to push interest rates up. The solution to falling growth is to cut interest rates. You start to see where the worries come from.

To me the vote is about whether to be a member of the world's largest trading bloc. To me this has brought us 40 years of relative economic prosperity after 20 years of economic decline. There is no longer any impetus for the creation of an economic superstate.

The problem of Greece and Italian Banks would still be ours due to debt held by our banks and the negative impact on the economies of our largest trading partners.

I agree with you that talking up a crisis is not a good idea.

BelgianBeerGeek

So then, Cameron. Fool or knave?

Stevo_666

Probability of a leave victory now down to 20% according to a report today collating the latest odds at the bookies. Sterling has rallied at the same time.

surrey_commuter

BelgianBeerGeek wrote:

So then, Cameron. Fool or knave?

Fool!!! The head bangers in his party will never let it lie. He risked everything to win nothing

mamba80

Coopster the 1st wrote:

One problem I have is that the more fear that is injected the more fearful the markets get i.e. the more you talk about it the more likely it is to become a reality. This is a very dangerous game to play with a vote that could be very close. Another issue is that none of the major economic institutions are warning the UK of potential EU problems if we remain e.g. another Greek debt crisis, Italian Bank crisis, etc. Look at the wobble the markets had in Jan/Feb due to the fears European banks debt exposure.

It is blinkered for your vote to be influenced by possible economic problems just from Brexit when there are so many others around the world as well as economic risks of staying in the EU.

Well, we dont know what the world economy will do, but what seems fairly certain is that leaving EU will compound whatever problems we would incur and the BOE is very limited with what it can do with interest rates so low.

you obviously want to leave and i see a lot of stuff about putting the GREAT back into Britain etc and that we ll forge ahead in the world.... how? why cant we do that right now?

so why cant we sell to the USA, China, India? Belgium apparently exports more to China than we do.... the reason we dont is we dont make much that the rest of the world wants, so we might dream about a Colnago, Pinarello, LOOK, Campag, clothing by Assos, Castelli, these is just a few euro cycle companies... where are ours? gone!

its got stuff all to do with us being in the EU and all to do with decades of bad invest, poor products and zero gov support.

I dont see that voting IN gives the EU the right to carry on as before, no doubt they ll try but there is huge pressure for EU to reform, not least from the electorate voting for right wing parties.

cycleclinic

The bring this into the real world. Prices of cycking goods from distrihutors are going up. Inhad to put through some price rises this week as the latest round meant i would be making a loss on some products. Exchange rates are falling because in large part due to the impending referedum. A exit vote is being priced in. I am placing my next rock n roll order now just in case the is a vote to leave because if the vote is to leave then exchange rates can fall still further meaning i will have to push up prices or cut margins, probably both. If the vote is to leave expect the prices of cycling goods to go up in shops and online. The rises will be small but real.

I just dont see any good coming from leaving the eu. The gain in soverignty and democracy is bogus as i am getting a bunch if tory policies dumped on me that i never voted for. In fact the reform needed needs to start at home on hpw we govern ourselves.

No one seems to connect that the scots having there bags packed but the bags in the closet by the door and vote leave camp really desperate to the u.k out of the eu are part of the same problem. The way we govern ourselves is the problem. In scotland it manifests itself as an independance movement in england it is a anti eu/migrant movement. The big problem no one sees it. Until we reform our governing structures the chronic political problems will persist and may lead to the break up of the u.k itself.
The u.k problems are home grown.

Why i am i the only person i know who sees it this way. The outcome of this referendum which ever way it goes will not address what is see is the fundemental problem in british politics so while i am an in voter and leaving the eu is going to make the environment in which i trade more difficult i am now thinking it matters little which outcome there is on the 23rd. nowhere on the agenda of any political party of note is reform of the voting system and the mechanisms of goverment. The real democratic deficit is right here at home. And while that exists there will always be groups who feel excluded and then resort to swinging the wrecking ball to get change. Worse some groups retreat from politics altogether and that means others have more influence than they should to get that wrecking ball going.

pblakeney

thecycleclinic wrote:

No one seems to connect that the scots having there bags packed but the bags in the closet by the door and vote leave camp really desperate to the u.k out of the eu are part of the same problem. The way we govern ourselves is the problem. In scotland it manifests itself as an independance movement in england it is a anti eu/migrant movement. The big problem no one sees it. Until we reform our governing structures the chronic political problems will persist and may lead to the break up of the u.k itself.
The u.k problems are home grown.

Why i am i the only person i know who sees it this way. The outcome of this referendum which ever way it goes will not address what is see is the fundemental problem in british politics so while i am an in voter and leaving the eu is going to make the environment in which i trade more difficult i am now thinking it matters little which outcome there is on the 23rd. nowhere on the agenda of any political party of note is reform of the voting system and the mechanisms of goverment. The real democratic deficit is right here at home. And while that exists there will always be groups who feel excluded and then resort to swinging the wrecking ball to get change. Worse some groups retreat from politics altogether and that means others have more influence than they should to get that wrecking ball going.

I think that you have just shone a light on the elephant in the room.