BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
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Coopster the 1st wrote:orraloon wrote:Coopster the 1st wrote:orraloon wrote:orraloon wrote:Coopster the 1st wrote:If that does not happen I'm confident the UK will demonstrate very quickly it is a stronger country OUT than IN the EU.
How's that going to happen then Mr Confident?
I repeat the question. How?
It's all around business and investment confidence.
All the UK will have to do is beat the armageddon predictions from the IMF, OECD, etc. And from their predictions they are setting the bar very low.
Once the world realises the negative views are not occurring investment confidence will stay and increase in the UK and this have a positive effect. However, this will have a magnifying negative effect to confidence in the EU as we are being sold that the 5th biggest economy cannot cope outside of the EU blanket :roll:
This is without the additional £8bn* a year the UK will have to spend on it's own economy.
*Figure taken from the BBC
Sorry pal, that is Project Fantasy blether. You don't say anything about How "the UK will...beat...predictions" or How "investment confidence will...increase"
UK is a natural resources light, manufacturing light, if figures are to be believed productivity light, small cold island in a hostile world, great idea to isolate ourselves further eh? Bring on the magic beans.
The UK will beat what is being predicted as the status quo regarding trading will be maintained. There are too many influential business sectors in the EU that will not want to lose or have restricted access to the worlds 5th biggest economy. Once the financial markets realise this is the case and not Project Fear which we are being sold, investment confidence will stay in the UK.
You don't hold a high opinion of the UK do you? I currently see the UK(and Germany) providing the support and stability to a failing EU, not other way around.
Worth noting we're only 5th biggest because of the strength of the pound. We're nearly into 6th and if the pound collapses (it's already fallen substantially on the lead up to the vote) then we may fall further.
It isn't quite the same as the economic predictions surrounding the Scots referendum as that hinged on the international oil market (and the Scots govt predictions turned out to be ludicrously optimistic anyway). However I agree that the underlying sentiment is the same - "it's all these nasty English/Europeans fault, everything will be better if we get shot". And my opinion is the same as for the Scots referendum, I think people are using the EU as a scapegoat for Britain's problems. If we get out then we'll quickly realise we still have problems (and those look like they could be substantially worse) but we'll have to find other scapegoats.0 -
Coopster the 1st wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Ultimately brexiters are grass-is-greener-on-the-other-side fantasists.
Every claim they make gets debunked. When that happens they stick their fingers in their ears, sing rule Britania very loudly and dream of a 'better time' when Europe was ablaze and millions were being killed.
Only the odd nutter is arguing we will be better off. Bizarrely this is usually based on the assumption that the EU will renegotiate and we will stay in. So a argument for voting leave but not not an argument for leaving.
I don't believe we will be better off if we stay in as the EU is now but I do see a very close referendum. In the event of an OUT vote I foresee a movement where EU reforms will be renegotiated and we'll have a second referendum that will end with a IN vote. I will be happy with that if the main reforms are addressed.
The EU cannot allow us to leave as that will be the beginning of the end of the EU. They are also not going to state this position as it will mean a landslide LEAVE vote so instead we get Project Fear and negativity from the REMAIN camp. :roll:
You are in the realms of fantasy here.
This is the vote. Either the UK votes in or out. There won't be another one for a generation.0 -
That's what they said about the Scottish one Rick, and they're already after another (well a sizeable portion of the 45% are)...0
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Coopster the 1st wrote:You don't hold a high opinion of the UK do you?
Hmm. I suggest that I have more respect for UK society than that ragbag of political chancers prepared to flush all our economic prospects down the pan for their own selfish political ends.0 -
bobmcstuff wrote:That's what they said about the Scottish one Rick, and they're already after another (well a sizeable portion of the 45% are)...
Have they got one?
No.0 -
The eu debate stop being a debate ages ago. There are no facts there are stats that are misinterpreted on both sides. Lies and exaggerations on both sides too. Nuance is lost. Arguing trade may be reduced abit with eu countries on brexit gets turned on its head by brexitiers who say trade will continue and the sky wont fall in. Of course that is the cause but will, trade volumes be the same no one knows that the problem.
Ultimatley alot of what supporters of brexit push is hope of a better future out of the eu but they cant agree what that future looks likes because they dont know. Remain campaigners fail tk even give a vision for the future. Also alot of what the claim about a return of soverignity is hog wash. Soverignty has never helped me. Every time i vote in a general election i dont get the mp i vote for or the policies i want so thd country being more soverign wont change that. Always a tory is what i get. In fact this entire "debate" is really about trying to push the u.k to the right away from the centre left leanings of the e.u. the thing is not everyone in the u.k wants that move. When i hear eu red tape from johnson i hear he wants to scrap employment law if that is what is meant by soverignty then i don't want it back. When i hear control our boarders i hear lets let the population age and the depenacy ratio incresse which will make services like the nhs unaffordable by 2050 (projected funding needed to reach 25% of englands gdp so a very big tax base is going to be needed).
Also by 2030 the u.k should be the 4th largest economy in the world push germany into 5th place. This is why germany opened its boarders they need to increase there tax base they need workers. This means britain will have the econmic clout to make serious changes in the eu which are needed. Already the way the single market works is down in large part to britain, most of the e.u industrial policy is down to britian, e.u health and safety law originated in britain. Britain has shaped the e.u far more than people recognise it is just that it is not to the liking to the people on the right. Britain if we stay in will continue to shape the e.u and we have the oppertunity to remodel it as britain can become the paymaster general. However all this can viewed another way. See what i mean there are no facts just pojnts of view.
Everythkng i heard today from sides i though was overstated rubbish. I just wish politicans would shut up. Never get the one i vote for anyway.
So this is a classic centre left vs right struggle it has nothing to do with the eu. All of britains problems are jome grown every lasg one of them pullkng out of the e.u will change none of those problems it may create new ones but even thag is uncertain.
That is the best reason to stay i can think of.http://www.thecycleclinic.co.uk -wheel building and other stuff.0 -
I do love the assertion that if we leave we'll simply be £8bn richer as though we get nothing back from the EU.
My car costs me several thousand pounds a year to run. If I get rid of it, I won't suddenly be several thousand pounds a year better off. I'll have to redirect the money towards public transport and hire cars. I.e. STILL SPEND THE MONEY ON TRANSPORT.
How do the leave campaign get away with such simplistic nonsensical arguments?0 -
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My new boss this week was telling me how he is probably going to vote Out. Despite the fact 90% of our work comes from a few EU directives (ATEX, Seveso and Offshore Safety Directive). I thought it was a little short sighted.0
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Coopster the 1st wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Ultimately brexiters are grass-is-greener-on-the-other-side fantasists.
Every claim they make gets debunked. When that happens they stick their fingers in their ears, sing rule Britania very loudly and dream of a 'better time' when Europe was ablaze and millions were being killed.
Only the odd nutter is arguing we will be better off. Bizarrely this is usually based on the assumption that the EU will renegotiate and we will stay in. So a argument for voting leave but not not an argument for leaving.
I don't believe we will be better off if we stay in as the EU is now but I do see a very close referendum. In the event of an OUT vote I foresee a movement where EU reforms will be renegotiated and we'll have a second referendum that will end with a IN vote. I will be happy with that if the main reforms are addressed.
The EU cannot allow us to leave as that will be the beginning of the end of the EU. They are also not going to state this position as it will mean a landslide LEAVE vote so instead we get Project Fear and negativity from the REMAIN camp. :roll:
Can you really see no benefits to being a member of the world's largest trading bloc?
Who exactly would drive this push for a 2nd referendum? Cameron would be gone and prob replace with a Brexiteer. Many EU power brokers would be happy to see us go as they view us as holding back the project. So there will be no re-negotiation.
Not sure why us leaving would be the beginning of the end for EU but to discourage the others surely they would hammer us in exit negotiations and delay any attempt to rejoin.
Trade deals have to be agreed by all members and there are a lot with no significant exports to the Uk.
If you are going to vote out do so with your eyes wide open!!!0 -
Not arguing one way or the other, but are those the people we want to tie ourselves to for perpetuity?Surrey Commuter wrote:Coopster the 1st wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Ultimately brexiters are grass-is-greener-on-the-other-side fantasists.
Every claim they make gets debunked. When that happens they stick their fingers in their ears, sing rule Britania very loudly and dream of a 'better time' when Europe was ablaze and millions were being killed.
Only the odd nutter is arguing we will be better off. Bizarrely this is usually based on the assumption that the EU will renegotiate and we will stay in. So a argument for voting leave but not not an argument for leaving.
I don't believe we will be better off if we stay in as the EU is now but I do see a very close referendum. In the event of an OUT vote I foresee a movement where EU reforms will be renegotiated and we'll have a second referendum that will end with a IN vote. I will be happy with that if the main reforms are addressed.
The EU cannot allow us to leave as that will be the beginning of the end of the EU. They are also not going to state this position as it will mean a landslide LEAVE vote so instead we get Project Fear and negativity from the REMAIN camp. :roll:
Can you really see no benefits to being a member of the world's largest trading bloc?
Who exactly would drive this push for a 2nd referendum? Cameron would be gone and prob replace with a Brexiteer. Many EU power brokers would be happy to see us go as they view us as holding back the project. So there will be no re-negotiation.
Not sure why us leaving would be the beginning of the end for EU but to discourage the others surely they would hammer us in exit negotiations and delay any attempt to rejoin.
Trade deals have to be agreed by all members and there are a lot with no significant exports to the Uk.
If you are going to vote out do so with your eyes wide open!!!The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
PBlakeney wrote:
Not arguing one way or the other, but are those the people we want to tie ourselves to for perpetuity?Surrey Commuter wrote:Coopster the 1st wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Ultimately brexiters are grass-is-greener-on-the-other-side fantasists.
Every claim they make gets debunked. When that happens they stick their fingers in their ears, sing rule Britania very loudly and dream of a 'better time' when Europe was ablaze and millions were being killed.
Only the odd nutter is arguing we will be better off. Bizarrely this is usually based on the assumption that the EU will renegotiate and we will stay in. So a argument for voting leave but not not an argument for leaving.
I don't believe we will be better off if we stay in as the EU is now but I do see a very close referendum. In the event of an OUT vote I foresee a movement where EU reforms will be renegotiated and we'll have a second referendum that will end with a IN vote. I will be happy with that if the main reforms are addressed.
The EU cannot allow us to leave as that will be the beginning of the end of the EU. They are also not going to state this position as it will mean a landslide LEAVE vote so instead we get Project Fear and negativity from the REMAIN camp. :roll:
Can you really see no benefits to being a member of the world's largest trading bloc?
Who exactly would drive this push for a 2nd referendum? Cameron would be gone and prob replace with a Brexiteer. Many EU power brokers would be happy to see us go as they view us as holding back the project. So there will be no re-negotiation.
Not sure why us leaving would be the beginning of the end for EU but to discourage the others surely they would hammer us in exit negotiations and delay any attempt to rejoin.
Trade deals have to be agreed by all members and there are a lot with no significant exports to the Uk.
If you are going to vote out do so with your eyes wide open!!!
Just looking after their best interests - as would we in our attempt to negotiate with no leverage0 -
So, it is a club with everyone looking after their own interests?Surrey Commuter wrote:Just looking after their best interests - as would we in our attempt to negotiate with no leverage
Sounds just like the cycle clubs I have joined!
The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Everyone looks after their own interest whats new in that.http://www.thecycleclinic.co.uk -wheel building and other stuff.0
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Coopster the 1st wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Ultimately brexiters are grass-is-greener-on-the-other-side fantasists.
Every claim they make gets debunked. When that happens they stick their fingers in their ears, sing rule Britania very loudly and dream of a 'better time' when Europe was ablaze and millions were being killed.
Do you believe that? Or are you just trolling? :roll:
I don't see an accurate claim coming out of the REMAIN camp yet? Losts of project Fear. I can see how the Scots felt in their referendum now. Do you believe the treasury can predict what the economy will be like in 14 years time when it cannot get the next 6 months right?
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I think you got your answer, Coop. Just trolling.0
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I thought that the principle was to work for the common good.thecycleclinic wrote:Everyone looks after their own interest whats new in that.
I am well aware that principles get thrown out in the face of reality though.The above may be fact, or fiction, I may be serious, I may be jesting.
I am not sure. You have no chance.Veronese68 wrote:PB is the most sensible person on here.0 -
Coopster the 1st wrote:The EU cannot allow us to leave as that will be the beginning of the end of the EU. They are also not going to state this position as it will mean a landslide LEAVE vote so instead we get Project Fear and negativity from the REMAIN camp. :roll:
Project fear? you mean being told the EU is like Hitler or Napoleon in its aims and ambitions... yeah no fear or negativity there!
i see farage is calling for a 2nd vote if the remains win by a small margin.... no doubt he ll be calling for a 2nd vote if the OUTs win by a small margin lol!
the positives to vote IN ? environmental standards, employment rights, travel, single market, freedom of movement... yep all those english with their french and spanish holiday homes, those euro citizens that keep our public services going.
Education? my daughter is free to study in any euro uni... how good is that?
sure there are big problems with the EU but how can leaving be in our best interests? europe will develop and grow, meanwhile we will be left on the margins,
that notional £8bn? in uk gov spending, its very little, we spend 110bn on the nhs alone, if we were to have a recession, caused by brexit, that amount would be eaten up by extra demand on benefits and support for local communities effected.
As for controlling our borders? how? why would the EU negotiate exit terms that would give us access to the single market but not to have to abide by freedom of movement and services... dream land.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Coopster the 1st wrote:Rick Chasey wrote:Ultimately brexiters are grass-is-greener-on-the-other-side fantasists.
Every claim they make gets debunked. When that happens they stick their fingers in their ears, sing rule Britania very loudly and dream of a 'better time' when Europe was ablaze and millions were being killed.
Do you believe that? Or are you just trolling? :roll:
I don't see an accurate claim coming out of the REMAIN camp yet? Losts of project Fear. I can see how the Scots felt in their referendum now. Do you believe the treasury can predict what the economy will be like in 14 years time when it cannot get the next 6 months right?
I had under-estimated the stupidity of the British electorate :shock: top vote is post ww2 when the country was on it's knees and kidding itself the war was not won by Russia and USA. Second highest vote was winning the World Cup.
The correct answer is anything in the 1900-1913 but anything in the century after Trafalgar shows the right thought process.0 -
Ballysmate wrote:I think you got your answer, Coop. Just trolling.
I don't think it's trolling to point out that Brexiters trumpeting the "make Britain great again" line are trying to invoke the idea of a time which never really existed (without the help of pink glasses at least).0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:I had under-estimated the stupidity of the British electorate :shock: top vote is post ww2 when the country was on it's knees and kidding itself the war was not won by Russia and USA. Second highest vote was winning the World Cup.
The correct answer is anything in the 1900-1913 but anything in the century after Trafalgar shows the right thought process.
nah its now or at least in the last 30 or 40 years, ours has been the first generation not to have to go to war or experience war (in large numbers) and we ve got free ed, free health care and people dont die in the streets, we ve all got the vote and there is a certain amount of opportunity for all.
Go back to 1900 / 1913 and you have child labour, v high maternal and infant death rates, little education, poverty, no healthcare, no surgery, no antibiotics, no vote, deference and within a few years europe is plunged into 2 WWs that saw millions killed on the battle fields of europe and russia.
i ll take 2016 any day.0 -
mamba80 wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:I had under-estimated the stupidity of the British electorate :shock: top vote is post ww2 when the country was on it's knees and kidding itself the war was not won by Russia and USA. Second highest vote was winning the World Cup.
The correct answer is anything in the 1900-1913 but anything in the century after Trafalgar shows the right thought process.
nah its now or at least in the last 30 or 40 years, ours has been the first generation not to have to go to war or experience war (in large numbers) and we ve got free ed, free health care and people dont die in the streets, we ve all got the vote and there is a certain amount of opportunity for all.
Go back to 1900 / 1913 and you have child labour, v high maternal and infant death rates, little education, poverty, no healthcare, no surgery, no antibiotics, no vote, deference and within a few years europe is plunged into 2 WWs that saw millions killed on the battle fields of europe and russia.
i ll take 2016 any day.
Interesting - Agree the average citizen has never had it so great0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:Can you really see no benefits to being a member of the world's largest trading bloc?
Who exactly would drive this push for a 2nd referendum? Cameron would be gone and prob replace with a Brexiteer. Many EU power brokers would be happy to see us go as they view us as holding back the project. So there will be no re-negotiation.
Not sure why us leaving would be the beginning of the end for EU but to discourage the others surely they would hammer us in exit negotiations and delay any attempt to rejoin.
Trade deals have to be agreed by all members and there are a lot with no significant exports to the Uk.
If you are going to vote out do so with your eyes wide open!!!
I can see benefits of the status quo of being a member of the EU, mainly not having the uncertainty, however I see strong negatives. Many weaker countries than us have no issue in trading with the EU without being a member. And while I see a lot of EU chest thumping and gallic huffs upon us leaving I see too much business pressure in Germany, France, Spain, etc to mean that the EU will hammer us in trade negotiations. The reality of business will trump political will.
I see a very close vote with no side getting more than 55%. A second vote will be pushed by the remainers (entirely fair with a vote that close) but not before changes to the EU which the remainers will(and should), lead by George Osborne(?) be pushing for. The EU negotiation before a second vote would come about from the EU not wanting a groundswell of referendums in other countries, as well as keeping us in for the huge benefits we provide to the EU.
I am voting very much with my eyes wide open which is why I discussing where I view we will go beyond June 23rd based on an OUT vote.0 -
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Rick Chasey wrote:Pointless arguing with cooper. He wants a fantasy second vote.
And you think we are heading for WW III...
I wonder whose head is missing reality?0 -
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Coopster the 1st wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:Can you really see no benefits to being a member of the world's largest trading bloc?
Who exactly would drive this push for a 2nd referendum? Cameron would be gone and prob replace with a Brexiteer. Many EU power brokers would be happy to see us go as they view us as holding back the project. So there will be no re-negotiation.
Not sure why us leaving would be the beginning of the end for EU but to discourage the others surely they would hammer us in exit negotiations and delay any attempt to rejoin.
Trade deals have to be agreed by all members and there are a lot with no significant exports to the Uk.
If you are going to vote out do so with your eyes wide open!!!
I can see benefits of the status quo of being a member of the EU, mainly not having the uncertainty, however I see strong negatives. Many weaker countries than us have no issue in trading with the EU without being a member. And while I see a lot of EU chest thumping and gallic huffs upon us leaving I see too much business pressure in Germany, France, Spain, etc to mean that the EU will hammer us in trade negotiations. The reality of business will trump political will.
I see a very close vote with no side getting more than 55%. A second vote will be pushed by the remainers (entirely fair with a vote that close) but not before changes to the EU which the remainers will(and should), lead by George Osborne(?) be pushing for. The EU negotiation before a second vote would come about from the EU not wanting a groundswell of referendums in other countries, as well as keeping us in for the huge benefits we provide to the EU.
I am voting very much with my eyes wide open which is why I discussing where I view we will go beyond June 23rd based on an OUT vote.
To trade more or less openly with the EU you would have to accept their regulations, contribute financially and have free movement of labour (Swiss and Norway) in which case why bother leaving.
To hammer us all they have to do is drag their feet... You have to accept this and ponder new options like strengthening the commonwealth or joining NAFTA.
55% is massive in a referendum. However it would not matter to your scenario as the next leader would be Boris or May... Gove as an outsider but Osborne has no chance. The Tories PArty will not push for a re-run as the majority want out. Corbyn does not care. sNP will be pushing for independence. There will be no re-run for 20 years then it would take several years to re-enter.
The EU will avoid other referendum by hammering us in exit negotiations.0 -
Rick Chasey wrote:Pointless arguing with cooper. He wants a fantasy second vote.
I can't help myself.... How can somebody vote out when they want to stay in? :shock:0 -
Surrey Commuter wrote:To trade more or less openly with the EU you would have to accept their regulations, contribute financially and have free movement of labour (Swiss and Norway) in which case why bother leaving.
To hammer us all they have to do is drag their feet... You have to accept this and ponder new options like strengthening the commonwealth or joining NAFTA.
55% is massive in a referendum. However it would not matter to your scenario as the next leader would be Boris or May... Gove as an outsider but Osborne has no chance. The Tories PArty will not push for a re-run as the majority want out. Corbyn does not care. sNP will be pushing for independence. There will be no re-run for 20 years then it would take several years to re-enter.
The EU will avoid other referendum by hammering us in exit negotiations.
So before any negotiations have taken place you can tell how the trade negotiations will take place?
If the EU drag their feet with negotiations we will continue with the current agreement. All dragging the feet will do will introduce uncertainty for longer for both sides which benefits neither. Although in this situation I do wonder if we would still be able to stop paying our subsidy, remove the free movement of citizens, etc?
As per my previous comment, I'm confident business reality will trump political will when the matter is in focus. If we were a minor nation I would agree with you on the trade stance, however the reality is the opposite.
I don't think 55% is massive. I don't think Cameron would have called the referendum if he thought the IN vote was going to be that small. And 45% opposition is a huge amount.Surrey Commuter wrote:I can't help myself.... How can somebody vote out when they want to stay in? :shock:
You must have a point where your vote will switch. I have mine and it is based on the EU reforming and the removal of free movement of labour. The lack of the former in February decided where my vote is going. I don't want to be in under the current rules.
I am putting forward that there will be a second vote as the EU has a form for this. To quote José Manuel Barroso, the Portuguese president of the EU Commission 2004-2014...."They must go on voting until they get it right"0 -
Coopster the 1st wrote:Surrey Commuter wrote:To trade more or less openly with the EU you would have to accept their regulations, contribute financially and have free movement of labour (Swiss and Norway) in which case why bother leaving.
To hammer us all they have to do is drag their feet... You have to accept this and ponder new options like strengthening the commonwealth or joining NAFTA.
55% is massive in a referendum. However it would not matter to your scenario as the next leader would be Boris or May... Gove as an outsider but Osborne has no chance. The Tories PArty will not push for a re-run as the majority want out. Corbyn does not care. sNP will be pushing for independence. There will be no re-run for 20 years then it would take several years to re-enter.
The EU will avoid other referendum by hammering us in exit negotiations.
So before any negotiations have taken place you can tell how the trade negotiations will take place?
If the EU drag their feet with negotiations we will continue with the current agreement. All dragging the feet will do will introduce uncertainty for longer for both sides which benefits neither. Although in this situation I do wonder if we would still be able to stop paying our subsidy, remove the free movement of citizens, etc?
As per my previous comment, I'm confident business reality will trump political will when the matter is in focus. If we were a minor nation I would agree with you on the trade stance, however the reality is the opposite.
I don't think 55% is massive. I don't think Cameron would have called the referendum if he thought the IN vote was going to be that small. And 45% opposition is a huge amount.Surrey Commuter wrote:I can't help myself.... How can somebody vote out when they want to stay in? :shock:
You must have a point where your vote will switch. I have mine and it is based on the EU reforming and the removal of free movement of labour. The lack of the former in February decided where my vote is going. I don't want to be in under the current rules.
I am putting forward that there will be a second vote as the EU has a form for this. To quote José Manuel Barroso, the Portuguese president of the EU Commission 2004-2014...."They must go on voting until they get it right"
We serve notice to quit, the notice period is two years after which we will switch to a standard WTO deal which is a lot less favourable than we would aspire to.
In Cameron's wildest dreams he would not have thought 60% would be possible so yes 55% is big (if not massive)
Free movement of labour is fundamental to the EU so they will not negotiate ion that. The Brexit leadership want out so there will be no renegotiation.
I am pretty sure that quote refers to a Treaty Approval so is not relevant.
For me forced adoption of the Euro would be a point where my vote may waver. You should vote out over the free movement of labour not because you want a second referendum.0
