BREXIT - Is This Really Still Rumbling On? 😴
Comments
-
Is that the wood as in the timber or the wood as in the forest? 😉rick_chasey said:
People like to see the trees to avoid looking at the wood.0 -
A tenth of one percent in 3 years is still bad regardless of the reasons. Previous 3 years was roughly 5%, so not exactly stellar either.wallace_and_gromit said:Carney's UK figures look a bit dodgy. Per ONS, GDP (indexed to 100 in 2019 and excluding the impact of inflation / GDP deflator) in Jan 2016 was 93.1; the most recent (Aug 2022) is 100.1.
So the UK economy only increasing in size from £2.10t to £2.17t doesn't look quite right as that's circa 3% absolute growth when there is 7% real growth plus 6 years of inflation that should be accounted for.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Posting figures that don't seem to bear any relation to other reliably reported figures is not going to persuade people even if you are the former BoE Governor.rick_chasey said:Whatever format the stats are given, people will moan.
This is the one thing I have learned on this forum, that to even mention a stat is to draw the discussion away from the argument the stats are there to support ( or not), and instead to the approach of measurement.
People like to see the trees to avoid looking at the wood.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Where has Carney got those numbers from? The stats that are readily available seem to not match his claim at all.rick_chasey said:Whatever format the stats are given, people will moan.
This is the one thing I have learned on this forum, that to even mention a stat is to draw the discussion away from the argument the stats are there to support ( or not), and instead to the approach of measurement.
People like to see the trees to avoid looking at the wood.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
If a stat is obviously misleading, it's always going to detract from the argument. In this case, the only thing on the tweet is the stat.rick_chasey said:Whatever format the stats are given, people will moan.
This is the one thing I have learned on this forum, that to even mention a stat is to draw the discussion away from the argument the stats are there to support ( or not), and instead to the approach of measurement.
People like to see the trees to avoid looking at the wood.0 -
OK.
Here is where Carney is quoting from, I think.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=GB-DE
Still not sure how he gets from there to the figures in his tweet.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Stats add up where I'm sitting.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281744/gdp-of-the-united-kingdom/
2016: £2.1tr
2022: £2.2tr
Or in dollars:
Germany:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/959301/gdp-of-europes-biggest-economies/
Germany:
2016: $3.4
2022: $4.2
UK:
2016:$2.7
2021: $3.2
and i CBA to look at what Germany was in sterling, but that seems close enough.
Regardless of the actual numbers, even just looking at that you can see the UK economy has struggled substantially more than Germany. Same could be said for most of Europe. Your mind would be blown if you break the UK down into regions and compare it with Poland - it's pretty ugly for the UK.0 -
And in the context of Brexit, if you post a stat to "prove" that Brexit is bad then it has to be absolutely bulletproof, as otherwise the Brexiteers (and there are some fairly numerically sharp ones on Twitter etc.) will rubbish the underlying claim by rubbishing the stat.kingstongraham said:
If a stat is obviously misleading, it's always going to detract from the argument. In this case, the only thing on the tweet is the stat.rick_chasey said:Whatever format the stats are given, people will moan.
This is the one thing I have learned on this forum, that to even mention a stat is to draw the discussion away from the argument the stats are there to support ( or not), and instead to the approach of measurement.
People like to see the trees to avoid looking at the wood.
So if you can't make it bulletproof, don't post it.
My interest in this sort of thing is spotting where folk are stretching beyond what can be justified to make their specific claim, regardless of the side of the argument they are. And whilst I'm on the same side as Carney re Brexit, I think he has done just this in this particular case and has left himself open to being shot at. (Though I doubt he's too bothered given his career to date and future prospects!)1 -
rjsterry said:
OK.
Here is where Carney is quoting from, I think.
https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.PP.CD?locations=GB-DE
Still not sure how he gets from there to the figures in his tweet.
This (2015, third figure in) is about as close as I can see to the 90%.0 -
^^ you need to take the sterling figure into account - especially if the sterling figure listed in 2016 is pre or post vote.0
-
3.4 x 0.94 ≠ 2.7rick_chasey said:Stats add up where I'm sitting.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281744/gdp-of-the-united-kingdom/
2016: £2.1tr
2022: £2.2tr
Or in dollars:
Germany:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/959301/gdp-of-europes-biggest-economies/
Germany:
2016: $3.4
2022: $4.2
UK:
2016:$2.7
2021: $3.2
and i CBA to look at what Germany was in sterling, but that seems close enough.
UK gdp was not 94% of DE gdp in 2016. As SC pointed out, if it had been, we'd have been far more wealthy per capita than DE.
Neither is $3.2tn 70% of $4.2tn. The figures don't match up at all. The 2016 figures show UK at 79% of DE and the 2022 figures 76%. Looking at the ONS data that widening of the gap seems to be more likely down to poorer recovery from Covid than Brexit.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
can somebody barely competent at sums confirm that Rick's stats prove that the shift was from 79% to 76%?rick_chasey said:Stats add up where I'm sitting.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/281744/gdp-of-the-united-kingdom/
2016: £2.1tr
2022: £2.2tr
Or in dollars:
Germany:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/959301/gdp-of-europes-biggest-economies/
Germany:
2016: $3.4
2022: $4.2
UK:
2016:$2.7
2021: $3.2
and i CBA to look at what Germany was in sterling, but that seems close enough.
Regardless of the actual numbers, even just looking at that you can see the UK economy has struggled substantially more than Germany. Same could be said for most of Europe. Your mind would be blown if you break the UK down into regions and compare it with Poland - it's pretty ugly for the UK.
on other stats I am getting the shift from 77% to 71%0 -
TBH, unless you can find the figures for sterling and 2022, including the precipitous post-truss GBP drop, I don't think you can argue against the stats.
It has dropped nearly 10% vs the Euro since April 2022.0 -
Yes, that's what I make it. Maybe the 94% was a typo and it should have read 74%1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
saying that Brexit is bad for the economy is pushing on an open door here.rick_chasey said:TBH, unless you can find the figures for sterling and 2022, including the precipitous post-truss GBP drop, I don't think you can argue against the stats.
It has dropped nearly 10% vs the Euro since April 2022.
So ignoring the % change do you think it is plausible that the UK economy was 90% of the size of Germany's?
Would you accept that their population is 25% bigger than ours?
Do youthink SteveO and other Brexiteers would have mentioned it if their favourite destination for manufacturing cars had GDP per capita significantly below the UK?0 -
If you can find figures for 2022, well done.rick_chasey said:TBH, unless you can find the figures for sterling and 2022, including the precipitous post-truss GBP drop, I don't think you can argue against the stats.
It has dropped nearly 10% vs the Euro since April 2022.
0 -
At least one of the stats in Carney's tweet is obviously do-the-sums-in-your-head nonsense. UK GDP was not 94% of DE GDP under any measure. Being charitable it is a typo.rick_chasey said:TBH, unless you can find the figures for sterling and 2022, including the precipitous post-truss GBP drop, I don't think you can argue against the stats.
It has dropped nearly 10% vs the Euro since April 2022.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Economy has gone nowhere and pound has sunk 15% against the $kingstongraham said:
If you can find figures for 2022, well done.rick_chasey said:TBH, unless you can find the figures for sterling and 2022, including the precipitous post-truss GBP drop, I don't think you can argue against the stats.
It has dropped nearly 10% vs the Euro since April 2022.
Euro has fallen 15% against the $0 -
-
So ignoring the % change do you think it is plausible that the UK economy was 90% of the size of Germany's?rick_chasey said:He said it twice, first in the lunch for the FT and doubled down in the tweet.
Would you accept that their population is 25% bigger than ours?
Do youthink SteveO and other Brexiteers would have mentioned it if their favourite destination for manufacturing cars had GDP per capita significantly below the UK?0 -
The World Bank linked above when using current exchange rates has 2015 as Germany : 3.36 $trn, UK : 2.96 $trn. That's as near to 90% as makes no odds.
0 -
Yes I do think it's plausible and no I don't think Germany's population is 25% bigger. It's more like 20%, and a good third of Germany spent 45 years under the Soviets in living memory, so yes, entirely plausible.surrey_commuter said:
So ignoring the % change do you think it is plausible that the UK economy was 90% of the size of Germany's?rick_chasey said:He said it twice, first in the lunch for the FT and doubled down in the tweet.
Would you accept that their population is 25% bigger than ours?
Do youthink SteveO and other Brexiteers would have mentioned it if their favourite destination for manufacturing cars had GDP per capita significantly below the UK?0 -
as I said before it amazes me that we were 10% per capita richer and nobody mentioned it.kingstongraham said:The World Bank linked above when using current exchange rates has 2015 as Germany : 3.36 $trn, UK : 2.96 $trn. That's as near to 90% as makes no odds.
we are now 10% per capita poorer which still amazes me but a 20% swing in 5 years is incredible0 -
Using today's exchange rate with 7 yr old GDP looks like multiplying things together to get the biggest number you can.kingstongraham said:The World Bank linked above when using current exchange rates has 2015 as Germany : 3.36 $trn, UK : 2.96 $trn. That's as near to 90% as makes no odds.
1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
If the economies were identical UK GDP would be 80% DE. A number of different datasets put the figure at around 79% in 2016, which seems consistent with other observations (UK had some of the poorest bits of the EU in Wales and Cornwall). It's also consistent with the thesis that UK austerity policies acted as a brake on recovery from 2008.rick_chasey said:
Yes I do think it's plausible and no I don't think Germany's population is 25% bigger. It's more like 20%, and a good third of Germany spent 45 years under the Soviets in living memory, so yes, entirely plausible.surrey_commuter said:
So ignoring the % change do you think it is plausible that the UK economy was 90% of the size of Germany's?rick_chasey said:He said it twice, first in the lunch for the FT and doubled down in the tweet.
Would you accept that their population is 25% bigger than ours?
Do youthink SteveO and other Brexiteers would have mentioned it if their favourite destination for manufacturing cars had GDP per capita significantly below the UK?
Not sure why you are digging in on this.1985 Mercian King of Mercia - work in progress (Hah! Who am I kidding?)
Pinnacle Monzonite
Part of the anti-growth coalition0 -
Habit of a lifetime.rjsterry said:
If the economies were identical UK GDP would be 80% DE. A number of different datasets put the figure at around 79% in 2016, which seems consistent with other observations (UK had some of the poorest bits of the EU in Wales and Cornwall). It's also consistent with the thesis that UK austerity policies acted as a brake on recovery from 2008.rick_chasey said:
Yes I do think it's plausible and no I don't think Germany's population is 25% bigger. It's more like 20%, and a good third of Germany spent 45 years under the Soviets in living memory, so yes, entirely plausible.surrey_commuter said:
So ignoring the % change do you think it is plausible that the UK economy was 90% of the size of Germany's?rick_chasey said:He said it twice, first in the lunch for the FT and doubled down in the tweet.
Would you accept that their population is 25% bigger than ours?
Do youthink SteveO and other Brexiteers would have mentioned it if their favourite destination for manufacturing cars had GDP per capita significantly below the UK?
Not sure why you are digging in on this.0 -
It’s the same story I hear from other professional economists I speak to. They too say this, just not in the FT.rjsterry said:
If the economies were identical UK GDP would be 80% DE. A number of different datasets put the figure at around 79% in 2016, which seems consistent with other observations (UK had some of the poorest bits of the EU in Wales and Cornwall). It's also consistent with the thesis that UK austerity policies acted as a brake on recovery from 2008.rick_chasey said:
Yes I do think it's plausible and no I don't think Germany's population is 25% bigger. It's more like 20%, and a good third of Germany spent 45 years under the Soviets in living memory, so yes, entirely plausible.surrey_commuter said:
So ignoring the % change do you think it is plausible that the UK economy was 90% of the size of Germany's?rick_chasey said:He said it twice, first in the lunch for the FT and doubled down in the tweet.
Would you accept that their population is 25% bigger than ours?
Do youthink SteveO and other Brexiteers would have mentioned it if their favourite destination for manufacturing cars had GDP per capita significantly below the UK?
Not sure why you are digging in on this.
So I suspect they’re right and the bike forum people aren’t ✌🏻0 -
You are going to have to believe me that this is like the arguments that we used to have before the internet was invented.rick_chasey said:
It’s the same story I hear from other professional economists I speak to. They too say this, just not in the FT.rjsterry said:
If the economies were identical UK GDP would be 80% DE. A number of different datasets put the figure at around 79% in 2016, which seems consistent with other observations (UK had some of the poorest bits of the EU in Wales and Cornwall). It's also consistent with the thesis that UK austerity policies acted as a brake on recovery from 2008.rick_chasey said:
Yes I do think it's plausible and no I don't think Germany's population is 25% bigger. It's more like 20%, and a good third of Germany spent 45 years under the Soviets in living memory, so yes, entirely plausible.surrey_commuter said:
So ignoring the % change do you think it is plausible that the UK economy was 90% of the size of Germany's?rick_chasey said:He said it twice, first in the lunch for the FT and doubled down in the tweet.
Would you accept that their population is 25% bigger than ours?
Do youthink SteveO and other Brexiteers would have mentioned it if their favourite destination for manufacturing cars had GDP per capita significantly below the UK?
Not sure why you are digging in on this.
So I suspect they’re right and the bike forum people aren’t ✌🏻
Can you explain why you are refusing to do even the simplest of searches to test the logic of your argument?0 -
Genuinely cannot be bothered. It’s their line not mine. It’s their job to opine on this. Makes not a difference if I think it or not.
Just on the Sterling devaluation against the Euro from pre 2016 vote to now would account for a big chunk of that gap even if everything else stayed the same.
April 2015 was 1.41 euros to the pound.
Now it’s 1.150 -
You could be bothered when thought you were right.rick_chasey said:Genuinely cannot be bothered. It’s their line not mine. It’s their job to opine on this. Makes not a difference if I think it or not.
1
